An Ohio edge. An Iowa tossup. New CNN polls give Democrats hope in a pair of red states

Illustration by Sarah Hashemi, CNN/GettyImages

Widespread dissatisfaction with the state of the country has opened up a prime Senate pickup opportunity for Democrats in Ohio and made for a razor-thin contest in Iowa , according to new CNN polls conducted by SSRS.

President Donald Trump carried both states by double digits in 2024 , and Republicans currently hold both US Senate seats and complete control of the state government in each of them.

But in these deep-red states, likely voters now mostly disapprove of Trump’s handling of the presidency, say his policies have increased the cost of living and that tariffs on foreign goods have largely been a negative for their states. About four in 10 in each state say they are financially worse off than they were two years ago.

Asked which party they’d like to see in control of the Senate after this year’s midterms, Iowa’s likely voters favor the Republicans (53% to 46%). In Ohio, it’s a more even divide (52% Democrats, 48% Republicans).

And in both states, Democrats have the upper hand in the race for governor.

In Ohio, Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown holds a 6-point lead among likely voters over Jon Husted, a Republican former lieutenant governor who was appointed to fill the seat vacated by Vice President JD Vance.

Brown is more widely known and better liked than Husted, according to the poll, and voters on both sides of the contest say their decision is more about Brown than it is about Husted. Nearly half of likely voters see Brown’s views and policies as about right ideologically, while 43% call him too liberal. Fewer are satisfied with Husted’s positions – 42% call his views and policies about right, 40% say he’s too conservative and 16% not conservative enough.

Among Brown’s own supporters, 62% say that choice is more a vote for Brown than against Husted, and likewise, Husted’s voters are more anti-Brown voters (56%) than pro-Husted voters (44%).

About 4 in 10 likely voters in Ohio say that which party controls the Senate will be more of a factor in their vote than the candidates’ experience and character or their positions on the issues. Voters motivated by that are split about evenly between Brown and Husted.

In order to take control of the Senate, Democrats need to hold their seats in battlegrounds like Michigan, New Hampshire and Georgia while flipping four seats currently held by Republicans. The party’s best pickup opportunity comes in North Carolina, but Ohio may be their next best shot. Iowa, one of several deeply red states at the heart of this year’s Senate playing field , is more of a stretch for Democrats.

Trump and GOP leaders launch a political rescue mission in Iowa

The poll finds no clear leader in the Senate race in Iowa, with Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson at 45% to Democrat Josh Turek’s 43% among likely voters.

Almost 3 in 10 Iowa likely voters say they haven’t yet firmly decided whom to support, and sizable shares don’t yet have an opinion on each candidate. Turek is less well-known than Hinson, with 24% saying they have never heard of him or don’t have an opinion, while 18% say the same about her. Those with an opinion of Hinson break more negative than positive, while views of Turek are about evenly split.

In contrast with Ohio, most backers of both candidates in Iowa say their choices are motivated by support for their chosen candidate rather than by opposition to their opponent: 66% of Hinson supporters and 60% of Turek supporters say their choice is in support of their candidate.

There are some signs in the poll that Iowa offers a better playing field for Republicans than does Ohio. In addition to likely voters’ preference for a GOP-controlled Senate, Trump’s approval rating here stands at 41% compared with 36% in Ohio and notably above his 34% average nationwide in the CNN Poll of Polls . And in assessing the candidates, more call Turek too liberal (46%) than say that Hinson is too conservative (38%).

In both Iowa and Ohio, about half of likely voters call the economy and cost of living their top issue, more than 20 points higher than the second most important issue, the state of US democracy.

The economic concerns that have buffeted Trump’s approval ratings nationally all year long are evident here. About three-quarters in each state say that Trump’s policies have increased the cost of living there, majorities say that increased tariffs on foreign goods are a bad thing for their state and roughly seven in 10 say they have faced at least some hardship from rising gas prices. Overall, far more say their own financial situation has worsened in the last two years than say it has gotten better.

About four in 10 in each state say they are angry about the way things are going in the country today. Those angry voters express more motivation to vote than do those who are enthusiastic or satisfied with the way things are going in the country in both states.

In both states, Democrats lead in the race for governor among likely voters. Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn in Iowa by 9 points, while in Ohio, Democrat Amy Acton tops Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by 8 points. Both would be Democratic pickups if these margins were to hold.

Impressions of Ramaswamy and Lahn appear to be weighing down their candidacies, with the share of likely voters who hold unfavorable opinions of the two Republicans outpacing favorable views by double-digit margins. By comparison, nearly half of Iowa likely voters have a favorable view of Sand – compared to 32% unfavorable – while in Ohio views of Acton are more evenly split.

CNN’s Ariel Edwards-Levy, Edward Wu and Isabelle LaBianco contributed to this report.

The CNN polls of Iowa and Ohio likely voters were conducted online and by phone September 29-October 5, 2026. Registered voters were randomly sampled from both registered voter lists and a probability-based panel. Results among likely voters include all registered voters in the poll weighted for their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election. Results among 801 likely voters in Iowa have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points; it is 4.5 points among the 760 likely voters in Ohio.

插图：Sarah Hashemi，CNN/GettyImages

根据 SSRS 进行的 CNN 最新民调显示，民众对国家现状的普遍不满为民主党在俄亥俄州赢得参议院席位创造了绝佳机会，同时也使得爱荷华州的选情异常胶着。

2024 年，唐纳德·特朗普总统在这两个州都以两位数的优势获胜，目前共和党人占据了这两个州的美国参议院席位，并完全控制了这两个州的州政府。

但在这些传统共和党州，潜在选民现在大多不认可特朗普的总统执政方式，认为他的政策推高了生活成本，而且对外国商品征收关税对他们的州造成了负面影响。每个州约有十分之四的选民表示，他们的经济状况比两年前更糟。

当被问及希望哪个党派在今年中期选举后控制参议院时，爱荷华州的潜在选民倾向于共和党（53% 对 46%）。在俄亥俄州，两党势均力敌（52% 支持民主党，48% 支持共和党）。

在这两个州，民主党人在州长竞选中都占据优势。

在俄亥俄州，民主党前参议员谢罗德·布朗在可能投票的选民中领先共和党前副州长乔恩·赫斯特6个百分点，赫斯特被任命填补副总统JD·万斯空出的席位。

民调显示，布朗比赫斯特德更广为人知，也更受欢迎。两党选民都表示，他们的决定更多地取决于布朗而非赫斯特德。近半数可能投票的选民认为布朗的观点和政策在意识形态上基本正确，而43%的人认为他过于自由派。相比之下，对赫斯特德立场感到满意的人较少——42%的人认为他的观点和政策基本正确，40%的人认为他过于保守，16%的人认为他不够保守。

在布朗的支持者中，62%的人表示，选择布朗更多的是投票支持他，而不是反对赫斯特；同样，赫斯特的选民中，反对布朗的人（56%）比支持赫斯特的人（44%）更多。

俄亥俄州约有十分之四的潜在选民表示，参议院由哪个党派控制，比候选人的经验、品格或政策立场更能影响他们的投票决定。受此影响的选民在布朗和赫斯特之间势均力敌。

为了掌控参议院，民主党需要在密歇根州、新罕布什尔州和佐治亚州等关键摇摆州保住现有席位，同时还要拿下目前由共和党把持的四个席位。该党最有希望的席位在北卡罗来纳州，俄亥俄州可能是其次。爱荷华州是今年参议院选举的关键州之一，也是几个共和党传统票仓，民主党想要拿下该州则难度更大。

特朗普和共和党领导人在爱荷华州发起政治救援行动

民调显示，爱荷华州参议员竞选没有明显的领先者，共和党众议员阿什利·欣森在可能投票的选民中支持率为 45%，民主党候选人乔什·图雷克的支持率为 43%。

近三成爱荷华州潜在选民表示尚未最终决定支持哪位候选人，相当一部分人对每位候选人都还没有明确的看法。图雷克的知名度不如欣森，24%的受访者表示从未听说过他或对他没有看法，而对欣森持同样态度的受访者比例为18%。对欣森持负面看法的选民多于持正面看法的选民，而对图雷克的看法则大致持平。

与俄亥俄州的情况相反，爱荷华州两位候选人的支持者大多表示，他们的选择是出于对所选候选人的支持，而不是出于对对手的反对：66% 的欣森支持者和 60% 的图雷克支持者表示，他们的选择是为了支持自己选择的候选人。

民调显示，爱荷华州对共和党而言比俄亥俄州更有优势。除了选民倾向于共和党掌控参议院之外，特朗普在爱荷华州的支持率高达41%，远高于俄亥俄州的36%，也明显高于CNN民调中他34%的全国平均支持率。此外，在评价候选人时，认为图雷克过于自由派（46%）的人比认为辛森过于保守的人（38%）更多。

在爱荷华州和俄亥俄州，大约一半的潜在选民将经济和生活成本视为他们最关心的问题，这一比例比第二重要的问题——美国民主状况——高出 20 多个百分点。

一整年来，经济问题一直困扰着特朗普在全国的支持率，而这些担忧在这里也显而易见。每个州约有四分之三的受访者表示，特朗普的政策增加了当地的生活成本；多数受访者认为，提高外国商品关税对本州不利；约有十分之七的受访者表示，汽油价格上涨给他们带来了一定程度的经济困难。总体而言，认为自身财务状况在过去两年恶化的受访者远多于认为财务状况好转的受访者。

在每个州，大约十分之四的人表示他们对国家现状感到愤怒。与那些对国家现状感到热情或满意的人相比，这些愤怒的选民在两个州都表现出更高的投票积极性。

在爱荷华州和俄亥俄州，民主党候选人在州长竞选中均领先于可能投票的选民。民主党候选人罗布·桑德在爱荷华州领先共和党候选人扎克·拉恩9个百分点，而在俄亥俄州，民主党候选人艾米·阿克顿领先共和党候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米8个百分点。如果目前的领先优势保持不变，民主党将在这两个州都赢得席位。

拉马斯瓦米和拉恩的公众印象似乎正在拖累他们的竞选，对这两位共和党候选人持负面看法的选民比例远超持正面看法的选民，差距达两位数。相比之下，近一半的爱荷华州选民对桑德持正面看法，而持负面看法的选民仅占32%；在俄亥俄州，选民对阿克顿的看法则更为平均。

CNN 的 Ariel Edwards-Levy、Edward Wu 和 Isabelle LaBianco 对本报道亦有贡献。

CNN于2026年9月29日至10月5日期间，通过网络和电话对爱荷华州和俄亥俄州的潜在选民进行了民意调查。调查对象为已登记选民，样本来自选民登记册和基于概率的样本组。潜在选民的调查结果包含了所有参与调查的已登记选民，并根据他们预计参加今年选举的投票可能性进行了加权。在爱荷华州801名潜在选民中，调查结果的抽样误差为正负4.2个百分点；在俄亥俄州760名潜在选民中，抽样误差为正负4.5个百分点。