A major hurricane could cripple US refining when the world can least afford it

The global energy system is already being pushed to the brink. A major hurricane barreling down on America’s refining nerve center is the last thing that’s needed.

Tropical Storm Isaias, which is on the verge of becoming the Atlantic season’s first hurricane, is arriving at a time when there is almost no margin for error.

US refineries, mostly located along the Gulf Coast, are running as hard as they can to offset war-driven outages overseas. Fuel inventories that act as shock absorbers have already been tapped. And America’s emergency oil stockpile is at the lowest level since 1982.

Tropical Storm Isaias “could be a gigantic event. It’s the worst time something like this could happen in 25 years,” said Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities.

The actual impact of Isaias will depend on the storm’s path and intensity.

Current forecasts call for the storm to hit just east of New Orleans, a major refining hub. But if it seriously weakens or veers further east, vital energy infrastructure could be spared, significantly lowering the risk both to supply and prices.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric/National Oceanic and Atmospheric/AP

The risk is that the storm’s damage could squeeze supply chains even more, further raising historically high prices.

The Iran war, combined with Ukrainian drone attacks in Russia and export restrictions in China, have catapulted diesel prices to all-time highs. Gasoline was more than $4.40 per gallon last week and has never been this expensive at this time of year.

About 2.7 million barrels per day, or 14%, of America’s refining capacity, lie within or near the projected of the path of the storm, according to Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.

Lipow said he expects at least some refineries in the New Orleans/Baton Rouge and Mississippi/Alabama regions will have to slow down how much oil they turn into gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.

Pierre Larrieu/Hans Lucas/AFP/Getty Images

Tankers delivering oil to refineries and loading fuel out of refineries could get delayed as well. This would particularly impact Florida because the state relies on shipments of fuel from the Gulf Coast.

“There is no slack in the system to make up for lost refinery capacity. Lost production will have to come out of already low commercial inventories,” Lipow wrote in an email.

Those commercial inventories have been whittled away.

Gasoline stockpiles recently fell to their lowest seasonal record since 2012, according to federal data.

Distillate inventories, which include mostly diesel, are at their lowest level for early October since tracking started in the early 1980s.

Not only that, but the Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been aggressively drained to ease the energy shock. The SPR now holds about 283 million barrels of crude, the least since 1982 when the emergency reserve was being filled during the Reagan administration.

Refineries in the Middle East have been damaged by the Iran war, or have struggled to get shipments out to the rest of the world. Refineries in Russia have been destroyed or damaged by drone attacks. And China, seeking to avoid fuel shortages, has restricted its exports.

US refineries, operating at about 95% of their capacity, are one of the remaining key sources for the global fuel supply.

“It would be a disaster if US refining capacity has to come off the market. It would basically force a diesel export ban,” said Yawger, the Mizuho executive, who added that he is not in favor of restricting US diesel exports .

Much depends on the intensity of the storm, including the severity of flooding and wind damage. Isaias could peak as a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds by early Friday, according to reports on Wednesday afternoon.

It can take a week to return refining operations to normal after a Category 1 hurricane. But it can take two weeks to three weeks in a Category 3 storm.

Another, albeit lesser concern, is a prolonged hit to production in the Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for about 14% of total US oil output.

Already, major oil producers including Shell, Chevron and BP have evacuated non-essential personnel from oil platforms in the Gulf.

As of midday on Wednesday, about 512,000 barrels per day of Gulf of Mexico oil production has been shut in, according to the federal agency Marine Minerals Administration.

That amounts to about 25% of the region’s production. And about 16% of current natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico has been sidelined.

全球能源系统已经濒临崩溃边缘。一场强飓风袭击美国的炼油中心，绝对是雪上加霜。

热带风暴伊萨亚斯即将成为大西洋飓风季的第一个飓风，而此时此刻几乎没有犯错的余地。

美国炼油厂大多位于墨西哥湾沿岸，正全力运转以弥补海外因战争造成的产能中断。作为缓冲的燃料库存已经耗尽。美国的紧急石油储备也降至1982年以来的最低水平。

瑞穗证券能源期货主管罗伯特·亚格尔表示：“热带风暴伊萨亚斯可能会造成巨大影响。这是25年来发生此类事件的最糟糕的时机。”

伊萨亚斯飓风的实际影响将取决于其路径和强度。

目前的预测显示，这场风暴将在新奥尔良以东登陆，而新奥尔良是重要的炼油中心。但如果风暴强度显著减弱或进一步向东移动，重要的能源基础设施或许能够幸免于难，从而大幅降低供应和价格方面的风险。

美国国家海洋和大气管理局/美国国家海洋和大气管理局/美联社

风险在于，风暴造成的破坏可能会进一步挤压供应链，从而进一步推高已处于历史高位的价格。

伊朗战争，加上乌克兰无人机袭击俄罗斯以及中国实施的出口限制，导致柴油价格飙升至历史新高。上周汽油价格超过每加仑4.40美元，这是往年同期价格最高的一次。

据 Lipow Oil Associates 总裁 Andy Lipow 称，美国约有 270 万桶/日（占美国炼油产能的 14%）的炼油产能位于风暴预计路径内或附近。

利波表示，他预计新奥尔良/巴吞鲁日和密西西比/阿拉巴马地区的至少一些炼油厂将不得不放慢将石油转化为汽油、柴油和航空燃料的速度。

皮埃尔·拉里厄/汉斯·卢卡斯/法新社/盖蒂图片社

向炼油厂运送原油和从炼油厂装载燃料的油轮也可能出现延误。这将对佛罗里达州造成尤其严重的影响，因为该州依赖来自墨西哥湾沿岸的燃料运输。

“系统中没有足够的余力来弥补炼油产能的损失。损失的产量将不得不从本已很低的商业库存中弥补，”利波在一封电子邮件中写道。

这些商业库存已被大幅削减。

根据联邦数据，汽油库存最近降至 2012 年以来的最低季节性记录。

主要包括柴油在内的馏分油库存，已降至自上世纪 80 年代初开始追踪以来 10 月初的最低水平。

不仅如此，为了缓解能源冲击，战略石油储备也遭到了大幅削减。目前，战略石油储备仅剩约2.83亿桶原油，是自1982年里根政府时期紧急储备开始补充以来的最低水平。

中东的炼油厂在伊朗战争中遭到破坏，或难以向世界其他地区运送原油。俄罗斯的炼油厂则在无人机袭击中被摧毁或损坏。而中国为了避免燃料短缺，也限制了原油出口。

美国炼油厂的产能利用率约为 95%，是全球燃料供应的剩余主要来源之一。

“如果美国炼油产能被迫退出市场，那将是一场灾难。这实际上会迫使美国禁止柴油出口，”瑞穗银行高管亚格尔表示，他还补充说，他不赞成限制美国柴油出口。

很多情况都取决于风暴的强度，包括洪水和风灾的严重程度。根据周三下午的报道，伊萨亚斯飓风可能在周五清晨达到二级飓风强度，风速可达每小时110英里。

一级飓风过后，炼油厂的运营恢复正常可能需要一周时间。但三级飓风过后，则可能需要两到三周时间。

另一个令人担忧的问题（尽管程度较轻）是墨西哥湾的石油生产长期受到冲击，该地区的石油产量约占美国石油总产量的 14%。

包括壳牌、雪佛龙和英国石油在内的主要石油生产商已经从墨西哥湾的石油平台上撤离了非必要人员。

据联邦机构海洋矿产管理局称，截至周三中午，墨西哥湾每天约有 51.2 万桶石油产量被关闭。

这相当于该地区天然气产量的约25%。墨西哥湾目前约有16%的天然气产量处于停产状态。