How a series of miscalculations restarted Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen

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Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wanted to make his kingdom a magnet for investment , tourism and the world’s biggest sporting events. Now drones and missiles launched from Yemen are slamming into Saudi cities, drawing the kingdom deeper into the regional turmoil he hoped to leave behind.

The civil war in Yemen erupted once again this summer and significantly intensified last month, breaking years of relative calm. Saudi Arabia has for 11 years tried to contain the conflict on its southern border through military force and diplomacy – first waging war with the Iran-allied Houthi group, then pursuing peace talks with them and restoring diplomatic talks with their backer, Iran.

Despite the efforts, a series of miscalculations has left Riyadh exposed to further conflict in Yemen, experts say. Saudi Arabia’s ended its longstanding partnership with the UAE late last year over its backing of a rival force in Yemen, misjudged President Donald Trump’s willingness to back it if it needed support, and struggled to organize disintegrated armed factions fighting the Houthis in Yemen.

Now, Riyadh is trying to regain its footing by supporting its Yemeni partners in yet another campaign against the Houthis, an operation named “Yemen’s Dawn.”

Prince Mohammed’s ambitions to transform his kingdom have already faced several challenges since his rise to power more than a decade ago. Today, they’re coming under further strain as multi-front attacks on oil infrastructure cut into exports, major projects are canceled, and the kingdom is pulled into a war with no clear way out.

At least three people, including a Saudi pilot, were killed this week after Houthi forces struck several airports in the kingdom, according to Saudi Arabia. Regional turmoil has forced the suspension of star-studded film festivals, award shows, and music concerts this year. Meanwhile, the kingdom’s flagship financial conference, which is expected to draw high-profile business leaders at the end of October, is coming under pressure amid the strikes.

“They just needed the conflict to stay (as) far away from them as possible without the Houthis disrupting their transformation plans,” Michael Ratney, the former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, told CNN. “Now they find themselves in the middle of it.”

When Saudi warplanes struck a shipment of military vehicles sent to Yemen by the UAE last year, a decade-old alliance between two nations fighting Iran’s influence in Yemen shattered, leaving the kingdom to contend with the crisis alone after Abu Dhabi withdrew its forces. The break with the UAE shocked the region. Saudi Arabia launched a rare media campaign against its neighbor, accusing it of fueling instability in Sudan and Yemen. Saudi commentators publicly cast the UAE as a younger sibling rebelling against a wiser one.

Saudi Arabia is the “head and body” on which regional stability rests, wrote prominent Saudi journalist Dawood Al-Shirian in January. “If (Saudi Arabia) stumbles, the entire system is disrupted and the Gulf scatters.”

As Riyadh pressed for dominance in the Gulf, the ground shifted in Yemen. The four-year ceasefire with the Houthis was already fragile, and the rapid UAE withdrawal as demanded by Riyadh left thousands of fighters who had spent a decade under Abu Dhabi’s command disoriented by Riyadh’s strategy.

Fighters allied with the UAE say Abu Dhabi’s departure left a power vacuum the Saudis didn’t fill.

“There wasn’t a proper transition when the Emiratis left,” a southern Yemeni official, who asked to remain anonymous to speak freely to CNN, said. “It was frightening how different things became. The Emiratis’ command and control was very efficient, and the Saudis did not replace this efficiency.”

CNN reached out to the Saudi government for comment on whether the forces fighting the Houthis on the ground received enough support and whether there was a proper transition.

Mohammed Hamoud/Getty Images

Eight weeks after the UAE withdrawal, the US and Israel launched a war on Iran, killing supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The moves sparked a conflict that has plunged the region into unprecedented turmoil and placed Washington’s allies, including Saudi Arabia, in Iran’s crosshairs.

The timing was unfortunate for Saudi Arabia, several experts say. After contending with the UAE-backed separatist push in Yemen, the US and Israel triggered a regional war. And despite years of trying to stop the war from breaking out in Yemen, the pressure Trump imposed on Iran was expected to eventually trigger a Houthi push on the kingdom.

“The Saudis had to respond after being attacked by an enemy force on their territory… so there was always going to be a response,” Ratney, the former US ambassador, said.

Even as Iranian missiles struck the kingdom from the east, Saudi attention focused on the south. The Houthis, still formally in a truce with Riyadh, appeared unwilling to aid their Iranian partners. Tehran instead drew the Saudis in.

In July, Iran sent a commercial plane to carry a Houthi delegation to Khamenei’s funeral in Tehran, defying a Saudi air blockade of Yemen. Riyadh struck the Houthi-held airport in Sanaa to prevent the plane from landing. The rebel group retaliated by declaring the truce dead and announced a naval blockade on Saudi ships. It also started a lightning offensive down Yemen’s coast, seizing strategic territory at the Bab al-Mandeb Strait in the largest escalation since 2022.

The Houthis attacked Saudi oil facilities and pipelines, disrupting crude supplies and sending prices sharply higher. Saudi forces answered with hundreds of airstrikes.

“The Saudis have made several mistakes and failures,” Ahmed Nagi, a senior analyst for Yemen with the International Crisis Group think tank, told CNN, noting that Riyadh hadn’t prepared for a Houthi offensive and lacked coordination with allied Yemeni forces it inherited from the UAE.

“The areas they’ve lost created morale issues with their allies and now it’s a big challenge for the Saudis as the Houthis have more advanced weaponry which managed to reach several cities in Saudi Arabia,” he said.

Win McNamee/Getty Images/File

Another miscalculation by Saudi Arabia was its reliance on continued American support, experts say. Despite signing a new defense pact with Washington last year and being designated a Major Non-NATO Ally by the US, Riyadh has been disappointed by what it sees as waning US commitment to its security.

Prince Mohammed spoke twice with Trump last month, urging him to strike the Houthis, sources told CNN at the time, but Trump declined to intervene. Washington instead met the Houthis in Oman, seeking to protect its own ceasefire with the group, which made it clear that its war was with Saudi Arabia alone, thus allowing US vessels to traverse the Red Sea freely.

For a military that has built its “entire worldview” around partnering with the US, the Saudis are realizing how unpredictable Trump is, said Ratney.

“It was never their concept or the structure of their military to fight these wars by themselves,” he said. “Under a normal US presidency, if something like this happens, we would’ve helped our partner in what would’ve been a rational and considered process.

“Now we don’t have that process, and it ultimately comes down to: what does Trump think? And the Saudis probably feel exposed as a result,” he added.

Egyptian Presidency/Anadolu/Getty Images

Saudi Arabia has since looked elsewhere. Last month, Prince Mohammed flew to Egypt to meet President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, then invited UAE Vice President Sheik Mansour bin Zayed to Riyadh a few weeks later to discuss regional developments. France agreed to deploy defense assets, including military personnel. Britain said it would send an aircraft to help refuel Saudi jets. More than 100 American military advisers are on the ground providing intelligence and targeting support under a newly established joint forces command.

Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan agreed on Monday to “activate collective deterrence measures” under the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement after an emergency meeting in Riyadh. The pact, set up earlier this year, is meant to coordinate defense and security cooperation among the three. Forces loyal to the UAE also appear to be taking part in the offensive, a sign of at least a partial thaw between the kingdom and the UAE.

Khaled Ziad/AFP/Getty Images

But experts warn that outside support and early gains by the Saudi-backed Yemeni government will not settle the conflict. Infighting remains common among the factions, and there is still no clear political end state.

A sustained push against Iranian-backed forces, analysts say, would require organization, regional backing, funding, and logistics that the current coalition has not yet shown it can sustain.

“They need to unify their command centers, they need to resolve the issues they have between the various factions within the group,” Hisham Al Omeisy, a senior Yemen adviser for the European Institute of Peace told CNN’s Becky Anderson. “Territorial gains they’ve made would mean nothing if the (Saudi-backed) Yemeni government cannot maintain control over those areas.”

Many experts said however that the fighting in Yemen is connected to the US war in Iran, and as long as the conflict between Washington and Tehran is ongoing, the Iranians will continue having a powerful incentive to watch the Houthis disrupt Saudi Arabia.

Gulf states could manage to secure a separate diplomatic solution with Iran, analysts say, or escalate their military strikes to eliminate Houthi leadership.

“Neither of those scenarios fix the conflict in Yemen in any near term,” Ratney said. “The Saudis will have to just figure out an imperfect path ahead.”

南方巨人旅/路透社

沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼曾希望将沙特王国打造成为投资、旅游和举办世界顶级体育赛事的磁石。如今，来自也门的无人机和导弹正猛烈袭击沙特城市，使沙特王国更深地卷入他原本希望摆脱的地区动荡之中。

今年夏天，也门内战再次爆发，并在上个月显著升级，打破了多年来的相对平静。11年来，沙特阿拉伯一直试图通过军事和外交手段控制其南部边境的冲突——先是与伊朗支持的胡塞武装开战，然后与其展开和平谈判，并恢复与胡塞武装支持者伊朗的外交对话。

专家表示，尽管做出了种种努力，但一系列误判仍使利雅得面临也门冲突进一步加剧的风险。沙特阿拉伯因阿联酋支持也门敌对势力，于去年底终止了与阿联酋的长期伙伴关系；沙特误判了美国总统特朗普在需要时提供支持的意愿；此外，沙特在整合与胡塞武装作战的分散武装派别方面也举步维艰。

现在，利雅得正试图通过支持其也门伙伴开展另一场针对胡塞武装的行动（名为“也门黎明”）来重新站稳脚跟。

自十多年前穆罕默德王子掌权以来，他改造沙特王国的雄心壮志已面临诸多挑战。如今，随着石油基础设施遭受多线袭击导致出口锐减、重大项目被取消，以及沙特王国被卷入一场看不到出路的战争，他的雄心壮志正承受着更大的压力。

据沙特阿拉伯方面称，本周胡塞武装袭击了该国多个机场，造成至少三人死亡，其中包括一名沙特飞行员。地区动荡局势迫使今年众多星光熠熠的电影节、颁奖典礼和音乐会被迫取消。与此同时，原定于10月底举行的沙特旗舰金融会议也因袭击事件而面临压力，该会议预计将吸引众多商界领袖参加。

“他们只是希望冲突尽可能远离他们，以免胡塞武装干扰他们的转型计划，”美国前驻沙特阿拉伯大使迈克尔·拉特尼告诉CNN。“现在他们发现自己身处冲突中心。”

去年，沙特战机袭击了阿联酋运往也门的一批军用车辆，导致两国长达十年的、旨在对抗伊朗在也门影响力的联盟破裂。阿布扎比撤军后，沙特不得不独自应对这场危机。与阿联酋的决裂震惊了整个地区。沙特阿拉伯罕见地发起了一场针对邻国的媒体攻势，指责阿联酋煽动苏丹和也门的动荡局势。沙特评论员公开将阿联酋比作反抗其兄长的弟弟。

沙特阿拉伯是地区稳定的“核心和支柱”，著名沙特记者达乌德·阿尔-希里安在1月份写道。“如果（沙特阿拉伯）失足，整个体系就会崩溃，海湾地区也会分崩离析。”

随着利雅得力图在海湾地区占据主导地位，也门局势也发生了变化。与胡塞武装长达四年的停火协议本就脆弱不堪，而阿联酋按照利雅得的要求迅速撤军，使得数千名曾在阿布扎比指挥下作战十年的战士们，因利雅得的战略而感到迷茫。

与阿联酋结盟的武装分子表示，阿布扎比的离开留下了沙特未能填补的权力真空。

一位要求匿名接受CNN采访的也门南部官员表示：“阿联酋撤离时，并没有进行适当的过渡。情况的变化之大令人震惊。阿联酋的指挥和控制非常高效，而沙特阿拉伯并没有取代这种效率。”

CNN联系了沙特政府，询问地面上与胡塞武装作战的部队是否获得了足够的支援，以及权力交接是否顺利进行。

Mohammed Hamoud/Getty Images

阿联酋撤军八周后，美国和以色列对伊朗发动战争，导致伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊身亡。此举引发的冲突使该地区陷入前所未有的动荡，并将包括沙特阿拉伯在内的华盛顿盟友置于伊朗的攻击目标之下。

多位专家表示，沙特阿拉伯的时机非常不巧。在应对阿联酋支持的也门分裂势力之后，美国和以色列又挑起了地区战争。尽管多年来沙特阿拉伯一直试图阻止也门战争爆发，但特朗普对伊朗施加的压力最终被认为会引发胡塞武装对沙特的进攻。

“沙特阿拉伯在其领土上遭到敌军袭击后，必须做出回应……所以肯定会有回应，”美国前大使拉特尼说。

即便伊朗导弹从东部袭击沙特，沙特阿拉伯的注意力仍然集中在南部。胡塞武装虽然仍与利雅得保持着形式上的停火协议，但似乎并不愿意援助其伊朗盟友。德黑兰反而将沙特阿拉伯拉入了冲突之中。

7月，伊朗派遣一架民用飞机搭载胡塞武装代表团前往德黑兰参加哈梅内伊的葬礼，此举无视了沙特阿拉伯对也门的空中封锁。利雅得方面袭击了胡塞武装控制的萨那机场，阻止飞机降落。胡塞武装随即宣布停火协议失效，并对沙特船只实施海上封锁。此外，胡塞武装还沿也门海岸线发动闪电攻势，夺取了曼德海峡的战略要地，这是自2022年以来规模最大的一次冲突升级。

胡塞武装袭击了沙特石油设施和管道，扰乱了原油供应，导致油价飙升。沙特军队随即发动了数百次空袭予以回击。

国际危机组织智库也门问题高级分析师艾哈迈德·纳吉告诉CNN：“沙特犯了好几个错误和失败。”他指出，利雅得没有为胡塞武装的进攻做好准备，也缺乏与从阿联酋继承的也门盟军的协调。

他说：“他们失去的地区打击了盟友的士气，现在这对沙特阿拉伯来说是一个巨大的挑战，因为胡塞武装拥有更先进的武器，并且已经攻入沙特阿拉伯的几个城市。”

Win McNamee/Getty Images/文件

专家指出，沙特阿拉伯的另一个误判是过于依赖美国的持续支持。尽管去年与华盛顿签署了新的防务协议，并被美国列为主要非北约盟友，但利雅得对美国对其安全承诺的减弱感到失望。

据当时CNN报道，穆罕默德王储上个月曾两次与特朗普通话，敦促他打击胡塞武装，但特朗普拒绝干预。华盛顿方面转而在阿曼与胡塞武装会面，试图维护与该组织达成的停火协议。胡塞武装明确表示，其战争仅针对沙特阿拉伯，从而允许美国船只自由通行红海。

拉特尼说，沙特阿拉伯军队一直以来都将与美国合作视为其“整个世界观”，如今他们逐渐意识到特朗普是多么难以预测。

他说：“他们的理念和军队结构从来就没有想过要独自打这些战争。在正常的美国总统任期内，如果发生这种情况，我们会通过一个理性而周全的过程来帮助我们的伙伴。”

“现在我们没有了这个程序，最终就变成了：特朗普怎么想？沙特阿拉伯可能因此感到自身利益受到威胁，”他补充道。

埃及总统府/阿纳多卢通讯社/盖蒂图片社

此后，沙特阿拉伯将目光转向其他方面。上个月，穆罕默德王储飞往埃及会见总统阿卜杜勒·法塔赫·塞西，几周后又邀请阿联酋副总统谢赫·曼苏尔·本·扎耶德访问利雅得，讨论地区局势。法国同意部署国防资源，包括军事人员。英国表示将派遣飞机协助沙特战机加油。超过100名美国军事顾问已在沙特境内，根据新成立的联合部队司令部提供情报和目标定位支持。

沙特阿拉伯、土耳其和巴基斯坦周一在利雅得举行紧急会议后，同意根据《麦加联合防御协议》“启动集体威慑措施”。该协议于今年早些时候签署，旨在协调三国之间的国防和安全合作。效忠阿联酋的部队似乎也参与了此次攻势，这表明沙特王国和阿联酋之间的关系至少出现了部分缓和。

Khaled Ziad/AFP/Getty Images

但专家警告说，外部支持以及沙特支持的也门政府取得的早期进展并不能解决冲突。各派系之间的内讧依然普遍，目前仍未出现明确的政治最终方案。

分析人士表示，要持续打击伊朗支持的武装力量，需要组织、地区支持、资金和后勤保障，而目前的联盟尚未证明自己能够维持这些。

“他们需要统一指挥中心，需要解决组织内部各派系之间的矛盾，”欧洲和平研究所也门问题高级顾问希沙姆·奥梅西告诉CNN记者贝基·安德森。“如果（沙特支持的）也门政府无法控制这些地区，他们取得的领土胜利就毫无意义。”

然而，许多专家表示，也门的战事与美国在伊朗的战争有关，只要华盛顿和德黑兰之间的冲突持续下去，伊朗人就会继续有强烈的动机去关注胡塞武装如何扰乱沙特阿拉伯。

分析人士称，海湾国家或许能够与伊朗达成单独的外交解决方案，或者升级军事打击以消灭胡塞武装领导层。

拉特尼说：“这两种方案都无法在短期内解决也门冲突。沙特阿拉伯只能找到一条并不完美的出路。”