After oil increasingly left the Gulf, Iran is trying to regain its stranglehold on shipping

Iran is stepping up attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf in an effort to restore its leverage over the critical waterway.

There have been more than a dozen strikes on shipping since the end of September, reducing the volume of oil transiting the strait and keeping crude prices above $100 a barrel.

US President Donald Trump announced Thursday that he has no plans to strike Iran before the midterm elections, where rising energy costs could play a part in his Republican Party losing the House of Representatives, the Senate – or both.

“We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd,” Trump declared on Truth Social, adding that the administration is “having productive discussions” with Tehran and that his main goal is to ensure the country does not obtain a nuclear weapon.

Tehran, however, is focused on Hormuz as a “strategic red line” and is broadening its range of targets in the Gulf.

Leverage over Hormuz is non-negotiable for Tehran as it weathers US pressure despite a sinking economy. But Washington has said that the principle of free navigation in international waters is inviolable, a stance echoed by Gulf states that rely on the strait for much of their trade.

In one of the latest incidents, the National Guard of the United Arab Emirates said Saturday it had rescued 22 people following an oil tanker fire. Those rescued were Indian citizens – India is one of the largest suppliers of seafarers.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) – which tracks shipping incidents – has reported several other attacks in recent days.

It said the master of an outbound tanker reported it was struck Saturday by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a fire on board. UKMTO reported another attack in the same area on Sunday, resulting in damage to the vessel. All crew members were reported safe.

Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto/Getty Images

The navy of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) claimed on Saturday that a supertanker carrying crude oil suffered a massive explosion after striking a naval mine while attempting to leave the Strait of Hormuz through a route Tehran hadn’t authorized.

“No extra-regional power has the right to threaten, maintain a domineering presence, or interfere in it. The Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s strategic red line,” said the head of the IRGC, Ahmed Vahidi, in a post on X.

UKMTO said Sunday it had also received a report from several ships in UAE waters that they had been directed via VHF radio messages to move from their anchorages. Iran has avoided targeting the UAE recently.

Shipping analysts Ambrey said the IRGC Navy had issued a warning to six vessels anchored around 16 miles (25 kilometers) from the port of Ras al Khaimah in the UAE.

“The vessels were advised to heave up anchor, exit the area immediately, and transit to Dubai anchorage,” Ambrey noted.

Analysts say the rise in Iranian attacks and threats is in response to higher volumes of oil and petroleum products through the strait. They averaged about 13.1 million barrels per day at the end of September, according to Kpler, a marine data tracking service.

That’s just under 80% of the 17.1 million barrels that had traveled through the strait each day before the war broke out.

But flows appear to have slowed this month. Just seven tankers transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, less than half the seven-day average and the lowest number since July 23, data from Kpler showed.

However, figures are at times revised higher after ships have moved through the strait, as many switch off their identification systems to try to avoid detection.

The US military continues to enforce a blockade on Iranian ports, as part of a strategy of maintaining economic pressure on Iran.

On Saturday it had disabled a cargo vessel in the Gulf of ⁠Oman after the ship’s crew ignored warnings and ⁠attempted to run the ongoing naval blockade against Iran.

“A U.S. military ‌fighter ⁠jet struck the stern of Panama-flagged M/V Ocean Molica (also known as the “Arika Sun”) with a precision ‌munition, fully disabling the ship’s propulsion without harming ⁠the crew,” US Central Command posted on X.

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If the Strait of Hormuz is open, why are gas and diesel so expensive?

The US blockade has been highly effective, according to analysts. September was the first month that Iran loaded no crude onto tankers since maritime data tracking service Kpler began monitoring Iranian exports in 2013.

Last week, Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, described the current economic situation as one of the most difficult periods the country has faced.

Tehran has insisted that if it can’t export its oil, its neighbors won’t be able to either. It believes it holds the initiative, given US shortages of air defense interceptors, and says its military posture has moved towards the offensive.

“Both the Americans and other countries should know: As we have said before, in a region where we cannot sell oil, no one else will be able to sell oil either. And if our security is not guaranteed, no infrastructure will be safe,” Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf, said late in September.

It now seems intent on turning that threat into reality.

伊朗正加大力度袭击霍尔木兹海峡和波斯湾的油轮，试图恢复其对这条重要水道的控制权。

自 9 月底以来，航运业已发生十几起罢工事件，导致通过海峡的石油运输量减少，原油价格居高不下，每桶价格超过 100 美元。

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普周四宣布，他没有计划在中期选举前打击伊朗。能源成本上涨可能会导致他的共和党失去众议院、参议院，或者两者都失去控制权。

特朗普在 Truth Social 上宣称：“在 11 月 3 日美国中期选举之前，我们绝不会攻击伊朗。”他还补充说，本届政府正在与德黑兰进行“富有成效的讨论”，他的主要目标是确保伊朗不会获得核武器。

然而，德黑兰将霍尔木兹视为“战略红线”，并正在扩大其在海湾地区的打击目标范围。

尽管经济每况愈下，德黑兰仍在承受着美国的压力，因此对霍尔木兹海峡的控制权不容谈判。但华盛顿方面表示，国际水域航行自由原则不可侵犯，这一立场也得到了依赖该海峡进行大部分贸易的海湾国家的响应。

在最近发生的一起事件中，阿联酋国民警卫队周六表示，他们在一艘油轮起火后救出了22人。获救者均为印度公民——印度是全球最大的海员输出国之一。

英国海事贸易行动处（UKMTO）负责追踪航运事故，该机构报告称，最近几天还发生了其他几起袭击事件。

报告称，一艘出港油轮的船长报告称，该船周六在霍尔木兹海峡遭到不明飞行物袭击，导致船上起火。英国海事组织报告称，周日同一海域再次发生袭击事件，造成船舶受损。所有船员均安全。

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伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军周六声称，一艘载有原油的超级油轮在试图通过德黑兰未授权的航线离开霍尔木兹海峡时，触雷发生剧烈爆炸。

“任何域外势力都没有权利威胁、维持霸权存在或干涉霍尔木兹海峡。霍尔木兹海峡是伊朗的战略红线，”伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队司令艾哈迈德·瓦希迪在X网站上发表的一篇文章中写道。

英国海上运输行动处（UKMTO）周日表示，他们还收到几艘停泊在阿联酋水域的船只的报告，称他们接到甚高频无线电指令，要求他们离开锚地。伊朗近期一直避免对阿联酋发动袭击。

航运分析师安布雷表示，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军已向停泊在阿联酋拉斯海马港约 25 公里（16 英里）处的六艘船只发出警告。

“我们建议这些船只起锚，立即离开该区域，前往迪拜锚地，”安布雷指出。

分析人士称，伊朗袭击和威胁事件的增加是对经由霍尔木兹海峡运输的石油和石油产品数量增加的回应。据海洋数据追踪服务机构Kpler的数据显示，9月底霍尔木兹海峡的石油和石油产品日均运输量约为1310万桶。

这相当于战争爆发前每天通过海峡运输的 1710 万桶原油的近 80%。

但本月油轮通行速度似乎有所放缓。Kpler的数据显示，周二仅有7艘油轮通过霍尔木兹海峡，不到七日平均水平的一半，也是自7月23日以来的最低数字。

然而，由于许多船只为了避免被发现而关闭了识别系统，因此在船只通过海峡后，相关数字有时会被向上修正。

作为对伊朗施加经济压力的战略的一部分，美国军方继续封锁伊朗港口。

周六，伊朗在阿曼湾击沉了一艘货船，此前该船船员无视警告，试图突破伊朗正在实施的海上封锁。

美国中央司令部在X上发布消息称：“一架美国军用战斗机用精确制导武器击中了悬挂巴拿马国旗的M/V Ocean Molica（又名“阿里卡太阳”）号货轮的船尾，完全瘫痪了该船的推进系统，但没有伤害船员。”

穆罕默德·埃瑟/阿纳多卢/盖蒂图片社

如果霍尔木兹海峡畅通无阻，为什么汽油和柴油价格如此昂贵？

分析人士认为，美国的封锁非常有效。自海上数据追踪服务机构Kpler于2013年开始监测伊朗原油出口以来，9月份是伊朗首次没有向油轮装载原油。

上周，伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书莫森·雷扎伊将当前的经济形势描述为该国面临的最困难时期之一。

德黑兰坚称，如果自己无法出口石油，邻国也无法出口。鉴于美国防空拦截机短缺，德黑兰认为自身掌握着主动权，并表示其军事态势已转向进攻。

伊朗首席谈判代表穆罕默德·巴格尔·加利巴夫在9月下旬表示：“美国和其他国家都应该明白：正如我们之前所说，在一个我们无法出售石油的地区，其他国家也无法出售石油。如果我们自身的安全得不到保障，任何基础设施都将不安全。”

现在看来，它似乎决心将这一威胁变成现实。