Early voting figures suggest Democratic gains in Ohio’s most Trump-friendly counties

After the first days of early voting in Ohio, a state that could help determine control of the Senate, there are clear signs Democrats are more enthusiastic to vote.

So far, affiliated Democrats make up larger shares of pre-election voters than they did two years ago, even in the most Republican parts of the state.

At this point in 2024, Republicans had a 30-percentage point lead over Democrats in counties that voted for President Donald Trump by 20 points or more, according to data from the Ohio Secretary of State. This year, that’s shrunk to just five points.

Voters in other counties have also shifted, including in the counties that voted most strongly for former Vice President Kamala Harris, where they’re about 25 points more Democratic.

That’s based on the latest available set of statewide data, from after early voting on Thursday. There’s evidence from the counties for which later data is available that Friday was slightly better for Republicans.

The data is just the latest sign of a positive midterm environment for Democrats, as former Sen. Sherrod Brown looks to defeat Republican Sen. Jon Husted, and it comes as a CNN poll finds Brown leading by six points. In the governor’s race, Democrat Amy Acton leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy by eight points.

The overall electorate so far is about 27 points more Democratic than it was at the same point in 2024.

It’s important to note that while these signs align with other data that have shown Democrats more enthusiastic to vote this year than Republicans, it’s far from determinative.

Even party registration data doesn’t reveal who voters marked their ballots for, and these trends could change, as Republicans in recent years have much been much more likely to vote early in person or on Election Day.

Plus, it’s still very early. Ohio is at about 11% of its total early voting turnout from 2022.

What early voting data is showing ahead of the 2026 midterms

That’s happening at the same time that the state’s most Democratic places are also turning out more quickly than the most Republican places.

Those counties that went most strongly for Harris were at 74% of their turnout from the same point in 2024, while the strongest Trump counties were at 67%.

That gap is similar to the one we’ve seen in Virginia, where there’s also a 7-point difference, according to data from Catalist, a company that provides data, analytics and other services to Democrats, academics and nonprofit advocacy groups, including insights into who is voting before November.

That gap is smaller than it was earlier this month.

This partisan difference is also apparent in other states.

Voters in Ohio don’t select a party when they register, but the state reports party affiliation based on which primary a voter participates in. That’s not the case in New Jersey, where voters do register with a party.

Democrats had an unusually weak election in the Garden State in 2024. Former Vice President Kamala Harris beat Trump there by less than 6 points, the narrowest margin for a Democrat since 1992.

The counties that were strongest for Trump have seen the biggest partisan shifts towards Democrats in pre-election voting so far, according to Catalist’s data.

The breakdown of voters who have returned ballots so far in the state’s three counties that voted for Trump by 20 points or more has shifted nearly 11 points toward Democrats compared to this point in 2024.

Turnout is also more Democratic in the strongest Harris counties, but by less than two points.

In-person early voting hasn’t started in New Jersey yet, so these shifts could also reflect Republicans continuing to shift away from voting by mail.

Ohio’s data also reveals a shift in the way people are voting.

Since pre-election voting started, there have been indications that 2026 would continue the trend of Americans moving away from voting by mail after the Covid-19 pandemic.

It’s early in Ohio, but while early in-person voting is at 72% of what it was at this point in 2024, mail voting is at just 25%.

CNN’s Edward Wu contributed to this report.

在俄亥俄州提前投票的头几天，民主党人的投票热情明显高于共和党人。俄亥俄州是决定参议院控制权的关键州。

到目前为止，即使在该州共和党势力最强大的地区，民主党人在选举前投票中所占的比例也比两年前更高。

根据俄亥俄州州务卿办公室的数据，2024年同期，在那些特朗普总统得票率领先20个百分点或以上的县，共和党人比民主党人领先30个百分点。而今年，这一领先优势已缩减至仅5个百分点。

其他县的选民也发生了变化，包括那些投票支持前副总统卡马拉·哈里斯的县，这些县的选民对民主党的支持率比对共和党的支持率高出约 25 个百分点。

这是根据周四提前投票后最新的全州数据得出的结论。从一些县的后续数据来看，周五共和党的选情略好一些。

这些数据只是民主党在中期选举中形势向好的最新迹象。前参议员谢罗德·布朗有望击败共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特，而CNN的民调显示布朗领先6个百分点。在州长竞选中，民主党候选人艾米·阿克顿领先共和党候选人维韦克·拉马斯瓦米8个百分点。

到目前为止，选民整体上比 2024 年同期多出约 27 个百分点支持民主党。

值得注意的是，虽然这些迹象与其他数据显示民主党人今年比共和党人更有投票热情的数据相符，但这远非决定性的。

即使是政党登记数据也无法揭示选民投票给了谁，而且这些趋势可能会发生变化，因为近年来共和党人更有可能提前亲自投票或在选举日投票。

此外，现在还为时尚早。俄亥俄州目前的提前投票率约为2022年总投票率的11%。

2026年中期选举前的提前投票数据显示了什么？

与此同时，该州民主党选民比例最高的地区的投票率也比共和党选民比例最高的地区更高。

支持哈里斯最坚定的县的投票率已达到 2024 年同期的 74%，而支持特朗普最坚定的县的投票率则为 67%。

这一差距与我们在弗吉尼亚州看到的差距类似，根据 Catalist 的数据，那里也存在 7 个百分点的差距。Catalist 是一家为民主党人、学者和非营利倡导团体提供数据、分析和其他服务的公司，其服务包括对 11 月投票情况的洞察。

这个差距比本月初要小。

这种党派分歧在其他州也很明显。

俄亥俄州的选民在登记时无需选择党派，但该州会根据选民参加的初选来报告其党派归属。新泽西州的情况则不同，该州的选民在登记时必须选择党派。

2024 年，民主党在新泽西州遭遇了一场异常疲软的选举。前副总统卡马拉·哈里斯以不到 6 个百分点的优势击败了特朗普，这是自 1992 年以来民主党候选人赢得的最小优势。

根据 Catalist 的数据，在选举前的投票中，特朗普支持率最高的几个县，其党派倾向向民主党倾斜的幅度最大。

该州三个曾以 20 个百分点或以上优势支持特朗普的县，目前已投票的选民构成与 2024 年同期相比，向民主党倾斜了近 11 个百分点。

在哈里斯县选情最胶着的几个县，民主党的投票率也更高，但差距不到两个百分点。

新泽西州尚未开始现场提前投票，因此这些变化也可能反映出共和党人继续减少邮寄投票。

俄亥俄州的数据也显示人们的投票方式发生了转变。

自选举前投票开始以来，已有迹象表明，2026 年将延续新冠疫情后美国人逐渐放弃邮寄投票的趋势。

俄亥俄州现在还处于早期阶段，虽然提前现场投票已达到 2024 年同期水平的 72%，但邮寄投票仅达到 25%。

CNN的Edward Wu对本报道亦有贡献。