Trump’s diesel deal with Putin drives a wedge through the Western alliance

Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP

By agreeing to open Russia’s taps and release hundreds of thousands of tons of diesel into a starving global market, the Kremlin has achieved something that raw military might on the battlefields of eastern Ukraine could never deliver.

The deal, which involves suspending fuel export sanctions on Russia for six months to allow for diesel sales at market prices, will be a welcome boon for a Russian economy that is creaking under the strain of a war in Ukraine that has dragged on far longer than anticipated.

But for Vladimir Putin, Russia’s strongman president, the real benefit isn’t the billions of dollars in fresh revenue. It is the wedge this deal, and the rhetoric around it, drives right through the heart of the Western alliance, which has aimed to isolate Moscow over it’s war in Ukraine.

US President Donald Trump spelled out the new and extraordinary reality in stark terms as he mocked the angry reaction of Ukraine’s wartime leader, Volodymyr Zelensky, who derided the deal as a “weak decision by a strong partner” that provides “extra money for this war.”

“We said you can do whatever you want to Russia. Don’t hit the refineries because that’s a world problem that’s caused and he wants to make problems for the world. He wants to make problems for our farmers, our ranchers,” Trump said before calling for a new Ukrainian leader, essentially blaming high global fuel prices, especially acute in the United States, on Ukraine.

In recent months, relentless Ukrainian drone strikes, flying deep into Russian territory with terrifying precision, have systematically crippled oil refineries that serve as both the economic engine and the fuel tank for Russia’s military.

Amid domestic fuel shortages and severe production cuts, the Kremlin suspended all diesel exports this month so that it had enough for its own needs — a stunning setback for a country that used to be the second-biggest diesel exporter in the world before the Ukraine war.

Whether Russia can actually provide the promised diesel or not, by framing the Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries as an assault on American interests, Washington is effectively aligning its economic priorities with Moscow’s survival — even as analysts have suggested the deal is unlikely to dramatically move the needle on diesel prices.

Genya Savilov/AFP/Getty Images

Kristina Solovyova/AFP/Pool/Getty Images

The US has powerful levers it can pull to get Ukraine to play ball.

Washington no longer provides money and weapons to Kyiv. But vital American intelligence sharing — the digital backbone of Ukrainian defense — risks being cut off if Ukraine now continues to strike at the Russian infrastructure Trump wants left untouched. The threat is real — the US did just that in the wake of the notorious Oval Office blowup last year.

Mindful of the risk , Zelensky has indicated he is willing to cooperate, but only if Russia does the same. “Ukraine will be ready to stop striking Russian oil refineries if Russia stops striking our energy infrastructure,” Zelensky said in a recent statement.

For Ukraine, this entire episode may seem like yet another bitter, existential betrayal by an American leader who has at times acknowledged a begrudging respect for Kyiv’s bold military tactics. Now, its most effective asymmetric weapon — relentless drone strikes on oil refineries — is being undermined and may be neutralized, not by Russian anti-air batteries, but by American diplomatic pressure along with Trump’s irrepressible urge to do a deal with the Kremlin.

In Moscow, on the other hand, the mood is upbeat.

“The Russian side confirmed its willingness to supply oil and petroleum products to the US market and global markets at large,” Putin said in an official statement after a prearranged telephone call with Trump on Friday night.

“I am convinced this will have a positive impact on the entire global economy,” he added.

Privately, the Kremlin leader must be rubbing his hands with glee.

Both he and Trump want Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries to immediately stop.

Both want Ukraine’s president to be replaced with someone who will agree a quick deal.

And just a few weeks after Trump signed a bill into law, sponsored by the late US Senator Lindsey Graham, allowing for punishing sanctions to be imposed on any country that bought Russian oil, Washington has now become a customer itself.

All at once, it seems, a battered but relatively unified Western front that has stood against resource-rich Moscow for more than four years looks like it is being dealt another powerful blow.

朱莉娅·德马雷·尼金森/美联社

通过同意打开俄罗斯的阀门，向极度匮乏的全球市场投放数十万吨柴油，克里姆林宫实现了在乌克兰东部战场上仅凭武力永远无法实现的目标。

该协议涉及暂停对俄罗斯的燃料出口制裁六个月，允许以市场价格销售柴油，这对因乌克兰战争而步履维艰的俄罗斯经济来说无疑是一大福音，这场战争的持续时间远远超出了预期。

但对俄罗斯强人总统弗拉基米尔·普京而言，真正的好处并非数十亿美元的新增收入，而是这项协议及其相关言论，如同楔子一般，直插西方联盟的核心，而西方联盟一直试图因莫斯科在乌克兰的战争而孤立莫斯科。

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普用严厉的措辞阐述了这一新的、非同寻常的现实，同时嘲讽了乌克兰战时领导人弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基的愤怒反应。泽连斯基抨击这项协议是“一个强大伙伴做出的软弱决定”，为这场战争提供了“额外的资金”。

“我们说过，你们可以对俄罗斯做任何事。但不要攻击炼油厂，因为那是他造成的全球性问题，他想给全世界制造麻烦。他想给我们的农民、牧场主制造麻烦，”特朗普在呼吁乌克兰更换领导人之前说道，实际上是将全球高油价（尤其是在美国）归咎于乌克兰。

近几个月来，乌克兰无人机持续不断地深入俄罗斯境内进行打击，其精准度令人胆寒，系统性地瘫痪了俄罗斯的炼油厂，而这些炼油厂既是俄罗斯的经济引擎，也是俄罗斯军队的燃料库。

由于国内燃料短缺和严重减产，克里姆林宫本月暂停了所有柴油出口，以确保自身有足够的燃料需求——这对乌克兰战争前曾是世界第二大柴油出口国的俄罗斯来说，是一个令人震惊的挫折。

无论俄罗斯是否真的能够提供承诺的柴油，华盛顿通过将乌克兰无人机袭击炼油厂的行为定性为对美国利益的攻击，实际上是将自身的经济优先事项与莫斯科的生存联系起来——尽管分析人士认为，这项协议不太可能对柴油价格产生显著影响。

根亚·萨维洛夫/法新社/盖蒂图片社

克里斯蒂娜·索洛维娃/法新社/泳池/盖蒂图片社

美国拥有强大的手段来迫使乌克兰配合。

华盛顿不再向基辅提供资金和武器。但如果乌克兰继续打击特朗普希望保持原状的俄罗斯基础设施，那么至关重要的美国情报共享——乌克兰国防的数字支柱——就有可能被切断。这种威胁是真实存在的——去年在臭名昭著的白宫椭圆形办公室冲突之后，美国就采取了这样的行动。

泽连斯基意识到风险，表示愿意合作，但前提是俄罗斯也采取同样的行动。泽连斯基在最近的一份声明中说：“如果俄罗斯停止袭击我们的能源基础设施，乌克兰也准备停止袭击俄罗斯炼油厂。”

对乌克兰而言，整个事件或许像是美国领导人又一次痛苦而又关乎存亡的背叛。这位领导人有时也曾勉强承认对基辅大胆的军事策略表示尊重。如今，乌克兰最有效的非对称武器——对炼油厂的持续无人机袭击——正遭到削弱，甚至可能被摧毁，而造成这种削弱的并非俄罗斯的防空火力，而是美国的施压，以及特朗普与克里姆林宫达成协议的强烈愿望。

而莫斯科的气氛则截然不同，人们情绪高涨。

普京在周五晚与特朗普进行事先安排好的电话通话后发表官方声明称：“俄方确认愿意向美国市场和全球市场供应石油和石油产品。”

“我相信这将对整个全球经济产生积极影响，”他补充道。

私下里，克里姆林宫领导人肯定正搓着手，暗自窃喜。

他和特朗普都希望乌克兰无人机立即停止对俄罗斯炼油厂的袭击。

双方都希望乌克兰总统被替换，换成一个能够迅速达成协议的人。

就在特朗普签署了由已故美国参议员林赛·格雷厄姆提出的法案，允许对任何购买俄罗斯石油的国家实施严厉制裁的几周后，华盛顿自己也成为了俄罗斯石油的客户。

似乎突然之间，一个饱受摧残但相对团结的西方阵线，在与资源丰富的莫斯科对抗四年多之后，又一次遭受了沉重打击。