‘Trump is dragging the party down’: GOP scrambles to stop steep midterm losses

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The Republican Party’s midterm campaign has turned into a triage operation just three weeks out from November, as officials race to avert losses in a string of once-safe seats that they increasingly fear could cost them total control of Congress.

The worsening landscape has alarmed GOP operatives across several battleground states, forcing the party to pour resources into traditionally red districts and states at the expense of their once-expansive ambitions in Democratic areas.

And after months of pressing President Donald Trump to ramp up his travel on behalf of key candidates, some Republicans now worry he’s grown so unpopular that his presence on the campaign trail may in some cases be doing more harm than good.

One House Republican running for re-election said of the president’s numbers: “Trump is dragging the party down.”

The grim outlook gripping the GOP follows weeks of polling showing Republicans on track to lose the House amid intense voter anger over the Iran war and rising cost of living — and at grave risk of losing their once-solid majority in the Senate as well.

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The widening number of competitive races has complicated Republican leaders’ plans to make up ground by unleashing hundreds of millions of dollars down the stretch. Despite a massive cash advantage fueled in part by pro-Trump super PAC, MAGA Inc., the spending so far has failed to significantly shift Republicans’ fortunes as more money gets diverted toward races once counted on as comfortable wins.

Already, the Senate Leadership Fund, the top GOP super PAC in Senate races, has suspended its ad reservations in North Carolina and plowed at least $10 million into Kansas, which has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. It also recently invested $5 million in South Carolina to boost incumbent Sen. Darline Graham amid concerns among some Republicans she’s losing ground to Democrat Annie Andrews in the deep red state.

That’s on top of the more than $100 million that the Senate Leadership Fund has spent in Texas to boost Ken Paxton, who is scrambling to shore up GOP support in his race with Democrat James Talarico after a bruising primary campaign. Trump himself has now traveled to Texas three times in one month to rally voters on Paxton’s behalf.

“We were all hoping the war was going to be over now, but it’s not,” said one Trump adviser. “We shouldn’t have a fight in a place like Texas, but obviously we do.”

Top Republicans steering spending on the House side are also expected to narrow their focus in the coming days, doubling down on races they see as winnable while slashing their investment in candidates whose fortunes are fading, multiple people familiar with the matter said.

That winnowing will mark the latest acknowledgment of the challenge facing Republicans — and an effort to concentrate resources on the select candidates capable of defending their seats, or flipping blue districts, and limiting Democrats’ encroachment overall.

The Cook Political Report dealt the latest blow on Friday, moving 18 House races toward Democrats. Those contests include five toss-up seats across Iowa, Pennsylvania and Washington that the closely watched analysis projects the Democratic candidates are now more likely to win.

The Senate map has also provided little reassurance for the GOP. Paxton is suffering a drip-drip of damaging audio leaks from a private fundraiser , further frustrating Republican officials who already believe he’s running a poor campaign. Democrats hold polling leads in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina, while making insurgent runs in solidly red states like Alaska and even Kansas.

“I don’t know that the environment could possibly get worse than it is,” said Jason Roe, a Michigan GOP strategist advising Rep. Tom Barrett, who is in a neck-and-neck race against Democratic challenger Will Lawrence. “If we lose this, it couldn’t have been won.”

Inside the White House, Trump and his top advisers are clear-eyed about the difficult odds of keeping the House and the rising threat to the Senate majority, people familiar with the matter said.

But there is still optimism that Republicans can limit their losses and turn the prospect of a blue wave into little more than a ripple. Trump advisers expect the polls to tighten in swing races in the campaign’s final days, especially as more ads hit the airwaves and less-engaged Republican voters begin to tune in.

“I’m not saying we are going to f***ing win, it is going to be so great. No, I am not saying that. But do we get wiped out? No, we aren’t gonna get wiped out,” said another House Republican running for re-election.

Some strong GOP candidates are likely to outperform the generic ballot polling that shows Democrats favored by a healthy margin, the people familiar argued. At the same time, they’re counting on a handful of far-left Democratic candidates to underperform. And even at the current margins, they note, the difference between Republicans losing the House or expanding their majority is only a matter of a few percentage points across a handful of races.

“This election is going to come down to one side saying Republicans have not cleaned their mess up fast enough, and what we are saying is, ‘We know you are struggling, but these are the things we are doing to make your life better and, by the way, they are crazy,” another Republican told CNN.

For his part, Speaker Mike Johnson has vowed to do everything he can to hold the majority and is campaigning in more than 40 districts and 20 states leading up to the election.

“Speaker Johnson is not slowing down and helping to get resources to every district that will decide the majority,” Johnson’s political communications director, Greg Steele, said in a statement to CNN.

While Trump has largely steered clear of swing districts of late, he has shown newfound enthusiasm for the campaign trail that his advisers have rushed to take advantage of, sending him to favorable areas across the country where they believe he can help GOP turnout. They’ve shrugged off any talk of Trump needing to lay low given his sagging approval ratings, arguing that the midterms are going to be a referendum on his presidency no matter what.

“The panic is unwarranted and it’s unfounded,” one White House official said of the GOP’s midterm trajectory. “It’s all going to come down to who has the ability to turn out their low-propensity voters. … That’s why we’re going where we’re going: To jazz up the base.”

In a statement, White House spokesman Davis Ingle called Trump “the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party.”

National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Mike Marinella said in a statement, “House Republicans have a more favorable map, a stronger ground game, historic fundraising and spending advantages and battle-tested incumbents while Democrats are stuck dragging their unelectable socialist nominees across the finish line.”

A senior Republican National Committee official argued that pollsters and strategists are writing off the GOP’s chances in the midterms too soon.

“The first ones to rush and get on the phone with you all in these times are not the ones in the fight,” the official told CNN. “They would rather just say nobody knows what they are doing and everything is doomed than take an objective look at what is happening.”

Trump’s rallies — which included a stop in Texas on Thursday and a trip to upstate New York on Friday to stump for gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman — have bolstered Trump’s mood and view of Republicans’ chances, the White House official and others familiar with his comments said.

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Nevertheless, Trump has tacitly acknowledged that his presence may not be helpful everywhere at a time when large majorities are frustrated with his economic policies and oppose the Iran war.

The president has declined to rebuke GOP candidates who have broken with him on the war and tariffs out of an understanding that they “need to run a campaign,” the White House official said — though those Republicans have still typically cleared the move with the White House ahead of time.

Trump has also stayed away from some races where vulnerable Republicans have tried to carve out an identity separate from him, such as Maine Sen. Susan Collins. The president isn’t currently expected to travel to Maine ahead of the midterms, people familiar with the matter said, though they cautioned his schedule fluctuates and that could change.

Still, there’s little expectation that any GOP candidate can fully escape the gravitational pull that Trump has exerted on the political landscape since returning to the White House.

And after nearly two years of demands for GOP unity, Trump advisers have counseled Republicans that their best hope in the final weeks is to make their own pitches for why they should get another term in Congress — and crucially, what they plan to do once they’re there to assuage voters’ frustrations.

“We’re fighting it out individually now,” the Trump adviser said. “It’s ugly out there for both sides, and it’s going to be hand-to-hand combat.”

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距离 11 月的中期选举仅剩三周，共和党的竞选活动已经变成了一场紧急救治行动，官员们争分夺秒，力图避免在一系列曾经稳固的席位上失利，他们越来越担心这些失利可能会让他们失去对国会的完全控制权。

不断恶化的形势令几个摇摆州的共和党人士感到担忧，迫使该党将资源投入到传统的红色选区和州，而牺牲了其曾经在民主党地区拥有的广泛野心。

经过数月敦促唐纳德·特朗普总统加大力度为重要候选人助选后，一些共和党人现在担心，他的支持率已经下降到如此之低的地步，以至于他出现在竞选活动中在某些情况下可能弊大于利。

一位竞选连任的共和党众议员谈到总统的支持率时说：“特朗普正在拖累共和党。”

共和党前景黯淡，此前数周的民调显示，由于伊朗战争和生活成本上涨引发选民强烈不满，共和党人即将失去众议院的控制权，而且他们一度稳固的参议院多数席位也面临失去的严重风险。

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竞争激烈的选区数量不断增加，使得共和党领导人原本计划在最后阶段投入数亿美元来扭转颓势的计划变得更加复杂。尽管共和党拥有巨额资金优势，部分原因是得到了支持特朗普的超级政治行动委员会“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA Inc.）的资助，但迄今为止，这些支出并未显著改变共和党的选情，因为更多资金被转移到了原本被认为胜券在握的选区。

参议院领导基金（Senate Leadership Fund）是共和党在参议院竞选中最大的超级政治行动委员会，该基金已经暂停了在北卡罗来纳州的广告投放，并向堪萨斯州投入了至少1000万美元。堪萨斯州自1932年以来就没有选出过民主党参议员。该基金最近还在南卡罗来纳州投资了500万美元，以支持现任参议员达琳·格雷厄姆（Darline Graham）。一些共和党人担心，在这个深红州，格雷厄姆的支持率正在被民主党候选人安妮·安德鲁斯（Annie Andrews）超越。

除此之外，参议院领导基金已在德克萨斯州投入超过1亿美元，用于支持肯·帕克斯顿的竞选。帕克斯顿在经历了一场激烈的党内初选后，正努力巩固共和党内部的支持，以对抗民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科。特朗普本人在一个月内三次前往德克萨斯州，为帕克斯顿拉票。

一位特朗普顾问表示：“我们都希望战争现在能结束，但事实并非如此。我们本不应该在德克萨斯州这样的地方开战，但显然我们还是打了。”

据多位知情人士透露，负责众议院支出的共和党高层预计也将在未来几天缩小关注范围，加大对他们认为可以赢得的竞选的投入，同时削减对那些选情正在走下坡路的候选人的投资。

这次筛选标志着共和党人再次承认他们面临的挑战，并努力将资源集中在能够保住席位、翻转蓝区、限制民主党整体扩张的少数候选人身上。

库克政治报告周五发布了最新一份报告，对民主党造成了沉重打击，报告预测18场众议院选举的选情向民主党倾斜。这些选举包括爱荷华州、宾夕法尼亚州和华盛顿州的五个原本势均力敌的席位，这份备受关注的分析报告预测，民主党候选人现在更有可能赢得这些席位。

参议院的选情也未能给共和党带来多少安慰。帕克斯顿正遭受一系列来自私人筹款活动的录音泄露的困扰，这进一步激怒了共和党官员，他们原本就认为帕克斯顿的竞选活动表现不佳。民主党在佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州等摇摆州保持民调领先，同时在阿拉斯加州甚至堪萨斯州等传统共和党州也发起反攻。

“我不认为现在的环境还能比现在更糟，”密歇根州共和党策略师杰森·罗说道。他正在为众议员汤姆·巴雷特提供咨询，巴雷特目前正与民主党挑战者威尔·劳伦斯展开一场势均力敌的竞选。“如果我们输了，那这场胜利就根本不可能赢。”

知情人士透露，在白宫内部，特朗普及其高级顾问们非常清楚保住众议院的希望渺茫，以及参议院多数席位面临的日益严重的威胁。

但人们仍然乐观地认为，共和党人能够将损失降到最低，并将“蓝色浪潮”的预期变成一场小规模的冲击。特朗普的顾问们预计，在竞选的最后阶段，摇摆选区的民调结果将会更加胶着，尤其是在更多竞选广告投放电视和一些原本参与度较低的共和党选民开始关注选举之后。

“我不是说我们一定会赢，而且会赢得非常棒。不，我不是这个意思。但我们会全军覆没吗？不，我们不会被全军覆没，”另一位竞选连任的共和党众议员说道。

知情人士认为，一些实力强劲的共和党候选人可能会超出民调显示的民主党领先优势。与此同时，他们也寄希望于少数极左翼民主党候选人表现不佳。他们指出，即便按照目前的民调结果，共和党最终是失去众议院控制权还是扩大多数席位，也仅仅取决于少数几个席位的几个百分点。

另一位共和党人告诉 CNN：“这次选举最终会演变成一方指责共和党人没有足够快地清理他们造成的烂摊子，而我们想说的是，‘我们知道你们生活艰难，但我们正在采取这些措施来改善你们的生活，顺便说一句，这些措施很疯狂。’”

众议院议长迈克·约翰逊誓言要竭尽全力保住多数席位，并在选举前夕奔走于 40 多个选区和 20 个州进行竞选活动。

“约翰逊议长并没有放慢脚步，而是努力将资源送到每个将决定多数席位的选区，”约翰逊的政治通讯主任格雷格·斯蒂尔在给 CNN 的一份声明中说。

尽管特朗普近来大多避开摇摆选区，但他对竞选活动表现出了新的热情，他的顾问们也迅速抓住这一机会，安排他前往全国各地他们认为能够提高共和党选民投票率的有利地区。对于特朗普因支持率下滑而需要低调行事的说法，他们不以为然，并辩称无论如何，中期选举都将是对他总统任期的一次全民公投。

一位白宫官员在谈到共和党的中期选举前景时表示：“这种恐慌毫无根据，也毫无道理。最终结果将取决于谁有能力动员那些投票意愿不高的选民……这就是我们采取这些措施的原因：为了激发基本盘的热情。”

白宫发言人戴维斯·英格尔在一份声明中称特朗普是“共和党无可争议的领袖、最佳信使和无与伦比的激励者”。

全国共和党国会委员会发言人迈克·马里内拉在一份声明中表示：“众议院共和党人拥有更有利的选区划分、更强大的基层组织、历史性的筹款和支出优势以及久经沙场的现任议员，而民主党人却只能拖着他们那些不可能当选的社会主义候选人勉强过关。”

一位共和党全国委员会高级官员认为，民调专家和策略师过早地否定了共和党在中期选举中的机会。

这位官员告诉CNN：“在这种时候，最先冲过来给你们打电话的人，并不是真正身处一线的人。他们宁愿说没人知道该怎么做，一切都完了，也不愿意客观地看待正在发生的事情。”

白宫官员和其他知情人士表示，特朗普的竞选集会——包括周四在德克萨斯州的停留以及周五前往纽约州北部为州长候选人布鲁斯·布莱克曼助选——提振了特朗普的情绪，也增强了他对共和党胜算的看法。

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然而，特朗普已经默认，在绝大多数人对他的经济政策感到不满并反对伊朗战争的当下，他的存在可能并非在所有地方都有效。

白宫官员表示，总统拒绝斥责那些在战争和关税问题上与他意见相左的共和党候选人，因为他理解他们“需要开展竞选活动”——尽管这些共和党人通常还是会事先向白宫征求意见。

特朗普也一直回避一些选情不稳的共和党候选人的竞选，这些候选人试图与他划清界限，例如缅因州参议员苏珊·柯林斯。知情人士透露，目前预计总统不会在中期选举前前往缅因州，但他们也提醒说，总统的行程安排经常变动，情况可能会有所变化。

不过，人们普遍认为，任何共和党候选人都难以完全摆脱特朗普重返白宫以来对政治格局产生的引力影响。

在近两年来不断呼吁共和党团结之后，特朗普的顾问们建议共和党人，在最后几周，他们最好的希望是自己阐述为什么应该在国会连任——以及至关重要的是，他们计划在就任后采取什么措施来缓解选民的不满。

“我们现在是各自为战，”特朗普的顾问说。“双方处境都很艰难，将会是一场殊死搏斗。”