Study On Restarting F-22 Production Has Finally Arrived, Here’s The Verdict

Updated Jul 5, 2020 7:09 PM EDT

Back in April on 2016, congress ordered a formal study on the costs and feasibility of restarting F-22 production. The order came amid deteriorating relations with a militarily resurgent Russia and decaying technology supremacy over China’s growing military apparatus, and over half a decade after the Raptor line was originally shuttered. The move made big news, and it stood as yet an another indication that what some of us had been saying for years was finally becoming the consensus inside and outside the USAF—that production of the world’s first 5th generation super fighter was terminated far too early.

As time went by, and the political winds in Washington changed direction, the possibility of a Raptor reprise faded into background as did the pending report. But now, six months after it was due, the study has quietly materialized—and nobody gets to read its findings but certain members of congress. But some details are emerging and they aren’t really surprising or too encouraging.

Unofficial estimates have varied drastically, from relatively affordable to horrendously expensive, on how much it would take to start building F-22s again. Also, false rumors have been rampant that the tooling for the jets, which is supposed to be carefully stored away along with videos on how each part of the Raptor construction process was executed, had been junked. There has also been much speculation as to what a new “F-22B” would look like and what the jet would be equipped with, but the question of how much money it would take to just get any form of Raptor back into production remained a mystery.

Now that mystery is likely solved, yet the USAF won’t let the American people see the details. This really isn’t too surprising as The USAF and industry will do seemingly anything to keep competition for the ultra lucrative F-35 program at bay, so deep sixing the F-22 study could very well be just another in a long line of moves to protect the Lockheed’s true “golden goose.” But even with the secrecy, here’s what we are finding out, with both Military.com and the Washington Examiner posting similar figures:

-Approximately $50 billion to procure 194 additional F-22s

-Total includes an estimate of approximately $7 billion to $10 billion for non-recurring start-up costs and $40.4 billion for aircraft procurement costs

-An estimated cost of $206 million to $216 million per aircraft (the last F-22 produced had a unit cost of $137 million)

In many ways this actually beats some cost estimates as far as restarting the production line. And at roughly $200 million per jet, the USAF could buy two F-35s for a single new F-22. But comparing the two is troublesome, as with both jets are in inventory and you don’t need anywhere near the numbers of Raptors as you do F-35s. Additionally, buying more F-22s could (and should) mean less F-35s would be required depending on how you look at the USAF’s overall force structure. Not just that, but involving other countries in the restart , notably Japan and possibly Australia, these costs to the USAF alone can come down.

The big question as we highlighted before is what is a “new” F-22? Does it have an avionics system based on the F-35? Is it tailless and stretched to increase its stealthiness, range and weapons payload? Or is it a F-22 as we have today with basic upgrades to its computers and materials where necessary to accommodate modern production lines and techniques? The former is likely what the numbers above depict.

But the F-22 remains the undisputed air supremacy fighter the world over, it has proven itself invaluable in Syria , and even the USAF has admitted the F-35 is no match for the jet’s extreme capabilities for certain key missions sets. But with a new bomber in the works, the need to upgrade or totally replace rapidly aging legacy fighters, as well as a whole other avalanche of priorities that are battling it out over the Pentagon’s unpredictably sized piggybank, realizing a Raptor production reprise remains just as doubtful as ever. Even the F-22 force the USAF already has is lacking key capabilities due to poor priorities and funding shortfalls.

Above all else, not even the manufacturer is interested in executing such a plan as their sights are laser focused on the much larger and far more lucrative F-35 pie.

After delivering the report to the House Armed Services Committee, the Trump Administration’s new Secretary of Air Force Heather Wilson made it clear that the USAF has no interest in building more “very expensive” F-22s.

“The startup costs are significant and very expensive… The chief has assigned a fighter roadmap. Our plan is to put any resources we have into that roadmap and not into restarting a line from an older aircraft.”

This was likely the outcome no matter what the study found, and in all honesty, the USAF would be better off at this point pouring big bucks into advanced unmanned air combat vehicles—the same kind of drones technology the force acts as if doesn’t exist —than an already shuttered manned fighter program.

As such, the F-22 will live on as a silver bullet force of around 181 jets, of which only roughly 125 are combat coded, and only about two thirds of those are ready to fly actual missions at any given time.

The aircraft has really become a somewhat depressing, cautionary tail of how clumsy, spastic and nearsighted the Pentagon procurement process can be.

Contact the author: Tyler@thedrive.com

Note: Author added “for certain key mission sets” for clarity.

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更新于美国东部时间2020年7月5日晚上7:09

早在2016年4月，国会就下令对重启F-22战斗机生产的成本和可行性进行正式研究。这项命令出台之际，正值美俄关系日益恶化，俄罗斯军事实力强势复苏，而美国在技术上对中国日益强大的军事力量的优势也日渐式微。此外，距离猛禽战斗机生产线最初关闭已过去五年多。此举引发了广泛关注，也再次表明，我们多年来一直强调的观点最终在美国空军内外达成共识——世界上首款第五代超级战斗机的生产终止得太早了。

随着时间推移，华盛顿的政治风向转变，猛禽计划重启的可能性以及那份待发布的报告都逐渐淡出人们的视线。然而，在原定发布日期六个月后，这份研究报告悄然出炉——但除了部分国会议员外，无人能够阅读其研究结果。不过，一些细节正在浮出水面，这些细节既不令人惊讶，也不令人鼓舞。

关于重启F-22战机生产所需的费用，非官方估计差异巨大，从相对经济实惠到天价不等。此外，坊间盛传，用于制造F-22战机的工具（本应与记录猛禽战机各部件制造过程的视频一起妥善保存）已被销毁。关于新型“F-22B”战机的外观和配置也众说纷纭，但究竟需要多少资金才能让猛禽战机恢复生产，至今仍是个谜。

现在谜团可能已经解开，但美国空军却不愿让美国民众了解详情。这其实并不令人意外，因为美国空军和相关产业为了阻止竞争对手争夺利润丰厚的F-35项目，似乎什么都做得出来。因此，彻底搁置F-22研究很可能只是他们为了保护洛克希德·马丁公司真正的“摇钱树”而采取的一系列举措中的又一例。即便如此，我们还是了解到了一些情况，Military.com和《华盛顿观察家报》都发布了类似的数据：

-采购194架额外的F-22战斗机大约需要500亿美元

总计包括约70亿至100亿美元的非经常性启动成本估计值和404亿美元的飞机采购成本。

-每架飞机的估计成本为 2.06 亿美元至 2.16 亿美元（最后一架生产的 F-22 的单价​​为 1.37 亿美元）

从很多方面来看，重启生产线的成本实际上低于一些预估。按每架战机约2亿美元计算，美国空军可以用购买一架新型F-22的钱购买两架F-35。但比较这两种战机存在问题，因为两种战机目前都在服役，而且F-22“猛禽”战机的需求量远不及F-35。此外，购买更多F-22战机可能（也应该）意味着需要更少的F-35战机，这取决于你如何看待美国空军的整体兵力结构。不仅如此，如果其他国家参与重启F-35生产线，特别是日本，甚至可能是澳大利亚，仅美国空军的成本就能降低。

正如我们之前强调的，最大的问题在于“新型”F-22究竟是什么？它是否采用了基于F-35的航电系统？它是否取消了尾翼并加长了机身以提升隐身性能、航程和武器载荷？或者它只是在现有F-22的基础上，对计算机系统和材料进行了必要的升级，以适应现代生产线和技术？上述数据所反映的很可能是前者。

但F-22仍然是全球无可争议的空中优势战斗机，它在叙利亚的行动中证明了自身的价值，甚至美国空军也承认，在某些关键任务中，F-35的性能远不及F-22。然而，随着新型轰炸机的研发、老旧战斗机升级或彻底替换的迫切需求，以及其他诸多优先事项争夺五角大楼那笔难以预测的预算，F-22“猛禽”战斗机的复产前景依然渺茫。即使是美国空军现有的F-22机队，也由于优先事项安排不当和资金短缺而缺乏关键能力。

最重要的是，就连制造商也对执行这样的计划不感兴趣，因为他们的目光完全集中在更大、利润更丰厚的 F-35 蛋糕上。

在向众议院军事委员会提交报告后，特朗普政府新任空军部长希瑟·威尔逊明确表示，美国空军对建造更多“非常昂贵”的F-22战机没有兴趣。

“启动成本很高，而且非常昂贵……司令部已经制定了战斗机发展路线图。我们的计划是将所有资源投入到该路线图中，而不是用于重启一条老旧机型的生产线。”

无论研究结果如何，这很可能都是最终结果。说实话，美国空军现在最好把大笔资金投入到先进的无人空中作战车辆（空军却假装这种无人机技术不存在）上，而不是投入到已经关闭的有人驾驶战斗机项目中。

因此，F-22 将作为一支拥有约 181 架战机的“银弹”部队继续存在，其中只有大约 125 架具备作战能力，而这些战机中只有大约三分之二随时可以执行实际任务。

这架飞机确实成了一个令人沮丧的警示案例，它揭示了五角大楼的采购过程是多么笨拙、混乱和短视。

联系作者：Tyler@thedrive.com

注：作者为了更清晰地表达，添加了“针对某些关键任务集”。

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