US Air Force speeds Reaper successor timeline after Iran losses

The U.S. Air Force is accelerating its timeline for a cheaper, more expendable successor to the MQ-9A Reaper, officials said Sept. 3, after combat losses left the service unwilling to wait out the rest of the drone’s life.

Lt. Gen. Christopher Niemi, the Air Force’s chief modernization officer, told reporters at the Pentagon that a follow-on was already under discussion as the MQ-9 aged out.

“Although we have plenty of MQ-9As today, we are going through them at a rate that is concerning to us,” he said, according to Breaking Defense , which covered the briefing.

Defense Daily reported that Air Force Secretary Troy Meink directed the acceleration, and that the fiscal 2031 target of 20 mission-ready aircraft could be pulled forward by about two years.

In May, Lt. Gen. David Tabor told the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Airland the fleet was down to about 135 aircraft , roughly 54 below the service’s 189-aircraft floor. Niemi did not update the inventory.

Backfilling the fleet is difficult. General Atomics shut down MQ-9A production in 2025, and Tabor said the service was pursuing a short-term buy of existing MQ-9A airframes in fiscal 2026. Niemi said Sept. 3 that budget constraints make buying a large number of upgraded MQ-9B SkyGuardians unrealistic. It is a misconception, he said, that the Air Force could write a check and take delivery of 100 aircraft.

A Congressional Research Service Insight updated May 13 cited an April 9 news report of 24 Reapers lost since military operations against Iran began in February, and said it was unclear whether the Pentagon had given Congress an accounting. The Washington Post reported Aug. 13 , citing three U.S. officials, that at least 45 had been lost, roughly 25% of the fleet.

Niemi signed requirements in May for a cheaper, modular, mass-producible aircraft.

That program, Massed Modular Aircraft, or MMA, opened as a Defense Innovation Unit competition July 7 with the Air Force as partner. The solicitation, which closed July 23, asked for a drone that could fly Reaper-class strike, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, electronic warfare and communications-relay missions cheaply enough to absorb losses. It called for at least 2,800 pounds of payload and an 8,000-nautical-mile one-way ferry range.

That is the aircraft Niemi now prices against Collaborative Combat Aircraft, or CCA. He put CCA air vehicles near $20 million and MMA at about half that, Defense Daily reported.

An Air Force spokesperson said those figures are for the air vehicle only, not a fully missionized aircraft, according to Breaking Defense . In May, Niemi told senators a Reaper with a full sensor package can cost up to $50 million. At the Sept. 3 briefing, he said the Air Force will probably field at least 180 MMA drones.

Niemi argued the Reaper’s value is not the airframe.

“What makes the MQ-9 special has nothing to do with the aircraft itself,” he said, calling its speed, altitude and range decades-old technology.

Initial MMA versions, he said, will rely on proven technology rather than new systems to hit the price. He described a long-aspect-wing turboprop in the “4,000 miles-type class,” farther and heavier than a CCA but slower. Officials did not say how that class relates to the 8,000-nautical-mile ferry range in the July notice.

General Atomics is bidding a design it calls Wildfire, first reported by Aviation Week in August. Spokesman C. Mark Brinkley told Air & Space Forces Magazine it “meets every wish on the [MMA] list and exceeds most of them,” but declined to give capabilities or cost. The company has not released images.

Brinkley told The War Zone in August that treating MMA as a Reaper replacement misses the immediate need for a backfill. Wildfire does not depend on winning the competition, he said, and “we can deliver Wildfires years earlier than the current schedule.”

He framed the design targets as considerations rather than specs, among them a 10,000-nautical-mile ferry range, four Long Range Anti-Ship Missiles and 100 aircraft under semi-autonomous control.

Col. Todd Dye, senior materiel leader in the Air Force’s medium-altitude intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance division, said awards for MMA concept refinement were expected in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, Breaking Defense reported .

Officials did not announce a new date at the Sept. 3 briefing.

Michael Scanlon is a defense journalist covering air and space warfare. A former U.S. Air Force A-10 crew chief, he has supported land and sea programs for the U.S. Army, Navy, Marine Corps and Coast Guard.

美国空军官员于9月3日表示，由于战斗损失，美国空军不愿再等MQ-9A“死神”无人机服役到报废，因此正在加快研发更便宜、更易消耗的后继机型的步伐。

空军首席现代化官员克里斯托弗·尼米中将在五角大楼告诉记者，随着 MQ-9 无人机逐渐老化，后续机型已经在讨论之中。

据报道此次简报的《防务新闻》报道，他说：“虽然我们现在有很多 MQ-9A 无人机，但它们的消耗速度令我们担忧。”

《国防日报》报道称，空军部长特洛伊·梅因克指示加快进度，原定于 2031 财年交付 20 架可执行任务的飞机的目标可能会提前约两年。

5月份，大卫·塔博尔中将告诉参议院军事委员会空地小组委员会，空军机队数量已减少到约135架飞机，比空军189架的最低标准少了大约54架。尼米没有更新库存数据。

补充机队规模十分困难。通用原子公司已于2025年停止MQ-9A的生产，塔博尔表示，空军正在寻求在2026财年短期采购现有的MQ-9A机身。尼米在9月3日表示，预算限制使得大量采购升级版MQ-9B“天空卫士”无人机不切实际。他指出，认为空军可以开出一张支票并接收100架飞机的想法是错误的。

美国国会研究服务处5月13日更新的一份报告援引4月9日的一篇新闻报道，称自2月份对伊朗开展军事行动以来，已有24架“死神”无人机损失，并表示目前尚不清楚五角大楼是否已向国会提交相关报告。《华盛顿邮报》8月13日援引三位美国官员的话报道称，至少有45架无人机损失，约占该机总数的25%。

尼米于 5 月份签署了关于更便宜、模块化、可大规模生产的飞机的要求。

这项名为“大规模模块化飞机”（MMA）的项目于7月7日由国防创新部门发起，空军是合作伙伴。该项目于7月23日截止招标，要求研发一种能够执行“死神”级无人机的打击、情报、监视与侦察、电子战和通信中继任务，且成本足够低，能够承受损失的无人机。招标要求有效载荷至少2800磅，单程航程8000海里。

据《防务日报》报道，尼米现在将这款飞机的价格与协同作战飞机（CCA）进行了比较。他将CCA飞机的价格定在2000万美元左右，而MMA的价格约为CCA的一半。

据《防务新闻》报道，空军发言人表示，这些数字仅指无人机本身，并非指配备完整任务的飞机。今年5月，尼米曾告诉参议员，一架配备全套传感器的“死神”无人机造价高达5000万美元。在9月3日的简报会上，他表示空军可能会部署至少180架MMA无人机。

尼米认为“死神”的价值不在于机身。

“MQ-9 的特别之处与飞机本身无关，”他说，并称其速度、高度和航程都是几十年前的技术。

他表示，首批MMA版本将采用成熟技术而非全新系统来控制成本。他描述了一款“4000海里级”长翼涡轮螺旋桨飞机，比CCA飞机航程更远、重量更重，但速度较慢。官员们并未说明该级别飞机与7月份公告中8000海里渡轮航程有何关联。

通用原子公司正在竞标一款名为“野火”（Wildfire）的无人机设计方案，该方案最早由《航空周刊》（Aviation Week）于8月报道。发言人C·马克·布林克利告诉《空军与太空部队杂志》（Air & Space Forces Magazine），该方案“满足了[MMA]清单上的所有要求，并且超出了其中大部分”，但他拒绝透露具体性能或成本。该公司尚未发布相关图片。

布林克利在8月份接受《战区》采访时表示，将MMA视为Reaper的替代品忽略了填补空缺的迫切需求。他说，Wildfire的交付并不依赖于赢得比赛，“我们可以比目前的计划提前几年交付Wildfire。”

他将设计目标设定为考虑因素而不是规格，其中包括 10,000 海里的渡轮航程、4 枚远程反舰导弹和 100 架半自主控制的飞机。

据 Breaking Defense 报道，空军中空情报、监视和侦察部门高级物资负责人托德·戴上校表示，MMA 概念改进的授标预计将在 2027 财年第一季度进行。

9月3日的新闻发布会上，官员们没有宣布新的日期。

迈克尔·斯坎伦是一位报道空天战的国防记者。他曾是美国空军A-10攻击机的机组长，并为美国陆军、海军、海军陆战队和海岸警卫队的陆地和海上项目提供支持。