Anwar Ibrahim’s incumbency advantage

The article discusses the political landscape in Malaysia as the nation approaches the next general election.

Voters often focus more on national leadership than on local candidates, with Anwar Ibrahim's name prominently recognized as opposed to local MPs.

The piece highlights the complexities and uncertainties surrounding political alliances, particularly between Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN), which lack a clear prime ministerial candidate.

While Anwar Ibrahim remains a dominant figure due to his incumbency, the potential for internal discord within opposing alliances may influence election outcomes.

OCTOBER 14 — In my local WhatsApp group a large number claim to have voted for Anwar Ibrahim in the last general election. They also cannot then and now, name the actual MP’s name, the name on the ballot.

It’s not Hulu Langat MP Sany Hamzan’s fault they were not bothered who’d be their representative in Dewan Rakyat.

Neither were the other candidates on their minds — Markiman Kobiran (formerly BN MP for Hulu Langat and now as Pejuang candidate who loses his deposit), Johan Abd Aziz (former assemblyman for Semenyih and soon to be Dusun Tua assemblyman), Mohd Radzi Abd Latif (Bersatu division chief) nor the two other invisible lads.

People go into general election polling booths to vote for who runs the country, this is important as next month is four years of Madani completed and the nation is firmly on a general election trajectory, even if it occurs at the end of 2027.

It also softens the impact of the Melaka election on the fates of the parties next year, in the general. This is not to say the count on November 14 is inconsequential.

In addition, the states have proven over the last six years, they can be extremely malleable to whoever administers Putrajaya.

When the federal government is at stake, the voters, even the least interested ones understand it is a choice among Barisan Nasional’s Zahid Hamidi, Perikatan Nasional’s Samsuri Mokhtar — or mistaken it to be Hadi Awang — and Pakatan Harapan’s Anwar Ibrahim.

Four years ago, on November 19, 2022, Malaysians headed to centres Semenanjung-wide with PN’s Muhyiddin Yassin, BN’s Ismail Sabri Yaakob and Anwar Ibrahim as their choices, the names on the ballot paper were just incidental.

The relegation of Mahathir Mohamad from the main pack was obvious and in hindsight explains how all Gerakan Tanah Air (GTA) candidates lost their deposit.

It’s a cruel game considering Mahathir’s name mattered a lot for voters in 2018 and gave Pakatan the edge to win.

False signals from state races

In November 2021, Melaka gave a resounding two-thirds majority win for BN over both PN and Pakatan. Twenty-one out of 28 seats. Five months later in Johor, BN again romped home with two-thirds (40 of the 56 seats). The signs were ominous for other pretenders.

Later in 2022, at the general election, BN failed to win a single parliamentary seat in Melaka and only nabbed five of the 26 in Johor.

A general election is a different beast.

The next general election centres around the total number of viable candidates. It’s premature to say it ends up being BN in an undefined relationship with PAS unwilling to commit to one PM candidate versus Anwar.

The meaning of undefined is that BN and PN agree on dividing seats up somewhat, campaign together but with separate logos and have first right of refusal to each other once the seats are tallied.

The assumption is that neither PN nor BN possess enough seats on their own on election day to negotiate with Borneo parties and secure the required 112 seats to form government.

So, two rounds of deal-making. Between PN and BN based on their seat count, and thereafter with the Borneo bloc. PAS’ patience with BN in the state elections may not mean more of the same when it comes to the federal contest.

A collapse in the friendship is always on the cards.

Two maybes, one outsider and the incumbent

Both PN and BN rely on backroom deals rather than polling booths, and therefore prefer to have options open, for the chat later.

So, it’s a three-way. BN, PN and Pakatan, with Muhyiddin’s Bersatu filling up the role Mahathir’s GTA played in 2022.

Which returns us to the core issue.

While the strength of the BN and PN helping each other by not competing against each other is a superpower, the inability to agree on a prime minister candidate will become a super-doubt.

Remember, while PN and BN governed together for three years (2020-2022), they opted to compete against each other at the general election.

The closest thing to the current PN-BN electoral pact is the 2008 PKR-DAP-PAS pact. But there is a stark difference. PAS in the Nik Aziz Nik Mat era was happy to let Anwar be the standard bearer. There is too much ambition inside the PN-BN universe to have a single election poster child.

There will be a lot of noise, not the least online.

The shifts from 2022 are palpable.

BN has no Ismail Sabri Yaakob as a distraction. Zahid Hamidi is PM if BN gets the nod. He has baggage, excess baggage.

From the Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) no show saga of 15 years to the 47 corruption charges on hold because of a DNAA, Zahid may be too colourful to become prime minister.

He makes people pause and rethink.

Samsuri Mokhtar, chairs PN, but reports to PAS president Hadi. He constantly stalls to wait for blessings from Marang.

The gnasher from Larut Hamzah Zainudin, the leader of opposition and of the ragtag Wawasan Negara gang, cannot stay silent. Missteps from Samsuri will only embolden Hamzah.

Pakatan for all its foibles, and maybe because of its foibles has only one name.

Anwar has been prime minister for four years and that counts a lot. Secondly, he was not the incumbent in 2022. There is a certain power from being the national figurehead and automatically occupies space in the voters’ minds.

As much as the glow of PN-BN coming together, regardless of the conditions set, ups both coalitions’ chances, the no one PM candidate conundrum might haunt them.

The economy is performing well and next year Malaysia hosts the SEA Games. Voters might not be over enthused by Anwar by voting day but they may just be quite happy to stay in the present lane a little longer.

This is not cut and dry.

* This is the personal opinion of the columnist.

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本文探讨了马来西亚在即将举行下届大选之际的政治格局。

选民往往更关注国家领导人而非地方候选人，安瓦尔·易卜拉欣的名字比地方议员的名字更广为人知。

这篇文章着重指出了政治联盟的复杂性和不确定性，特别是国民阵线（BN）和国民联盟（PN）之间的联盟，这两个联盟都没有明确的总理候选人。

尽管安瓦尔·易卜拉欣凭借其现任身份仍然占据主导地位，但对立联盟内部可能出现的不和可能会影响选举结果。

10月14日——在我所在的本地WhatsApp群组里，很多人声称在上届大选中投票给了安华·易卜拉欣。但他们无论当时还是现在，都说不出那位议员的实际姓名，也就是选票上的名字。

胡鲁冷岳国会议员萨尼·哈姆赞并不在意谁会成为他们在下议院的代表，这并非他的错。

他们也没有考虑其他候选人——马克曼·科比兰（前国阵乌鲁冷岳国会议员，现为斗士党候选人，但失去了保证金）、约翰·阿卜杜勒·阿齐兹（前士毛月州议员，即将成为杜顺图阿州议员）、莫哈末·拉兹·阿卜杜勒·拉蒂夫（土著团结党区部主席）以及另外两位默默无闻的小伙子。

人们前往大选投票站投票选出国家领导人，这很重要，因为下个月是马达尼执政四周年纪念日，国家正稳步走向大选，即使大选要到 2027 年底才会举行。

这也减轻了马六甲州选举对各政党明年整体命运的影响。但这并不意味着11月14日的计票结果无关紧要。

此外，过去六年里，各州已经证明，无论谁执掌布城，它们都极易被左右。

当联邦政府岌岌可危时，选民，即使是最不感兴趣的选民也明白，这是在国阵的扎希德·哈米迪、国盟的桑苏里·莫达（或者误认为是哈迪·阿旺）和希望联盟的安瓦尔·易卜拉欣之间做出选择。

四年前的 2022 年 11 月 19 日，马来西亚人前往西马各地的投票中心，他们选择了国盟的慕尤丁、国阵的伊斯迈尔·萨布里·雅各布和安瓦尔·易卜拉欣作为候选人，选票上的名字只是偶然的。

马哈蒂尔·穆罕默德被排除在主要候选人之外是显而易见的，事后看来，这也解释了为什么所有民兴党（GTA）候选人都失去了保证金。

考虑到马哈蒂尔的名字在 2018 年对选民来说非常重要，并帮助希望联盟赢得了选举，这真是一场残酷的游戏。

州级选举发出的错误信号

2021年11月，国阵在马六甲州以压倒性的三分之二多数席位击败国民联盟和希望联盟，赢得28个席位中的21个。五个月后，在柔佛州，国阵再次大获全胜，赢得56个席位中的40个。这对其他觊觎者来说无疑是不祥之兆。

2022 年大选中，国阵在马六甲未能赢得一个国会议席，在柔佛的 26 个国会议席中也只赢得了 5 个。

大选则完全不同。

下届大选的关键在于候选人总数。现在就断言最终结果是国阵与伊斯兰党关系不明朗，不愿明确支持哪位总理候选人，而安华则与之竞争，还为时尚早。

“未定义”的含义是，国阵和国民联盟同意在一定程度上划分席位，共同开展竞选活动，但使用不同的标志，并且在席位统计完毕后，双方都拥有优先选择权。

假设国盟和国阵在选举日当天都没有足够的席位与婆罗洲各党派进行谈判，从而获得组建政府所需的 112 个席位。

因此，双方进行了两轮谈判。首先是国盟和国阵根据各自的席位数量进行谈判，之后再与婆罗洲联盟进行谈判。伊斯兰党在州选举中对国阵表现出的耐心，在联邦选举中可能并不代表同样如此。

友谊破裂是迟早的事。

两个可能的人选，一个局外人，以及现任者

国盟和国阵都依赖幕后交易而不是投票站，因此更倾向于保留多种选择，以便日后讨论。

所以，现在是三方角逐：国阵、国民联盟和希望联盟，而慕尤丁的土著团结党将填补马哈蒂尔的土著团结党在2022年扮演的角色。

这就把我们带回到了核心问题上。

虽然国阵和国民联盟互相帮助、不互相竞争的力量是超级大优势，但无法就总理候选人达成一致将成为一个超级疑虑。

请记住，虽然国盟和国阵共同执政了三年（2020-2022 年），但他们在大选中却选择相互竞争。

与当前国盟-国阵选举联盟最接近的是2008年的人民公正党-民主行动党-伊斯兰党联盟。但两者之间存在显著差异。在尼克·阿齐兹·尼克·马特执政时期，伊斯兰党乐于让安华担任领军人物。而国盟-国阵内部的野心远不止于此，他们不会只选择一个单一的竞选代言人。

届时将会有很多噪音，尤其是在网上。

2022年的变化显而易见。

国阵没有伊斯迈尔·萨布里·雅各布这个分散注意力的人物。如果国阵获得提名，扎希德·哈米迪将成为首相。他身负重任，而且是沉重的包袱。

从长达 15 年的濒海战斗舰 (LCS) 未交付事件，到因 DNAA 而被搁置的 47 项腐败指控，扎希德的种种事迹可能让他难以成为总理。

他能让人停下来重新思考。

萨姆苏里·莫克塔尔是国民联盟主席，但他却向伊斯兰党主席哈迪汇报工作。他总是拖延时间，等待马朗的祝福。

反对派领袖、乌合之众“国家希望”党的头目拉鲁特·哈姆扎·扎伊努丁（Larut Hamzah Zainudin）绝不会保持沉默。萨姆苏里（Samsuri）的任何失误只会更加助长哈姆扎的气焰。

尽管希望联盟有种种缺点，或许正是因为这些缺点，它才只有一个名字。

安华担任总理已有四年，这意义重大。其次，他并非2022年的现任总理。作为国家元首，他拥有一定的影响力，自然而然地会在选民心中占据一席之地。

尽管PN-BN的合并无疑会提高两个联盟的胜算，但无论条件如何，没有一位总理候选人的难题可能会一直困扰着他们。

马来西亚经济表现良好，明年还将举办东南亚运动会。选民们或许在投票日当天不会对安华抱有太大热情，但他们可能乐于继续维持现状。

这件事并非非黑即白。

* 这是专栏作家的个人观点。

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