Ukrainians fear US intelligence cuts as Russian strikes intensify

Reduced missile warnings increase threat to civilians as Trump pushes an ‘energy ceasefire’ and peace negotiations.

Victoria Deineko holds her daughter Mia after a multistorey residential building in Kyiv was damaged in a Russian missile attack on Tuesday, [Evgeniy Maloletka/AP]

Kyiv, Ukraine – The supernova-like blasts of exploding Russian ballistic missiles are followed by thunderous thumps, shockwaves, fires and deaths – and the staccato of Ukrainian air defence systems.

This week’s nightly attacks on Ukraine that killed at least 15 and wounded dozens resembled hundreds of previous raids – with one exception.

list 1 of 4 ‘Massive’ Russian attack on Ukraine kills at least 9, damages power sites

list 2 of 4 What is potash, and why is the US importing it from Belarus?

list 3 of 4 Law of the Sea comes to life in the hunt for sanctioned Russian oil

list 4 of 4 Musk says US military controls Starlink’s limits after Ukraine outcry

The air raid sirens began howling just seconds before or after yet another wave of missiles struck apartment buildings, power plants and warehouses.

But Ukraine’s partners did not provide the country with intelligence data from NATO’s early-warning satellites, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday, as tensions between Washington and Kyiv rise.

He did not name the United States and President Donald Trump has denied that Washington has stopped sharing intelligence.

The constellation of military satellites detects Russian ballistic missile attacks by the rockets’ thermal flames seconds after launch.

The warnings give Ukrainians up to 10 minutes – precious, life-saving time to sound air raid sirens and send emergency text messages to prompt evacuations to bomb shelters.

“That’s what helps prevent the killings,” Zelenskyy said.

Ukraine’s ground radars can only detect the incoming missiles as their speed ranges from 6,000 to 12,000km/h (3,730 – 7,260 miles per hour).

‘Trump pressures our president’

Despite Trump’s denial, Ukrainian observers have a simple yet harrowing explanation – the US president wants to help Republicans win more congressional seats in upcoming midterm elections by pressuring Kyiv into declaring an “energy ceasefire” with Moscow that would drive global oil prices down.

“Trump pressures our president, pressures Ukraine” as he strives to “get advantage by any means necessary in the election campaign,” Lieutenant-General Ihor Romanenko, former deputy head of Ukraine’s general staff of armed forces, told Al Jazeera.

The lack of intelligence data “significantly affects the effectiveness of air defence, we don’t have time to respond,” he said.

Without the satellite data, Ukrainian drones and missiles also “lose precision when striking targets deep in Russia,” he said.

On Sunday, Trump announced the ceasefire that envisages no mutual strikes on energy infrastructure – from Russian oil refineries and fuel depots to Ukrainian power and heating stations.

“Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” Trump wrote on social media.

Kyiv said the announcement was a surprise, while Moscow declined to say whether it backs the idea – and kept on hitting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

The pressure goes beyond the refineries as Trump wants to quickly reopen, arbitrate and complete peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow – even if they benefit the Kremlin.

“He needs peace talks to succeed. Ideally, it is a certain unblocking of the peace settlement process, when Kyiv shows more willingness to agree with Russia’s demands,” Kyiv-based analyst Igar Tyshkevych told Al Jazeera.

The pressure will continue until “Kyiv shows readiness for a compromise and concessions towards Russia,” he said.

Moscow “simply abuses” the pressure and the suspension of air raid warnings to escalate attacks on Ukraine, he said.

Kyiv’s ‘priority’: The destruction of oil refineries

The suspension of data-sharing was especially shocking, given that Kyiv did stop hitting Russian refineries for three days.

It was only on Wednesday that its drones attacked refineries in Saratov and Ryazan regions, said Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister, Aleksander Novak.

However, Kyiv’s focus on striking oil refineries is ineffective and counterproductive, another observer said.

“Kyiv’s strategic priority is still the destruction of oil refineries,” Nikolay Mitrokhin of Germany’s Bremen University, who has penned hundreds of authoritative analyses of the hostilities, told Al Jazeera.

However, Russia overcame the initial shock by transporting gas from refineries in Siberia and exporting it from neighbouring Belarus and Kazakhstan.

No economic collapse, massive joblessness or public protests followed the strikes, while Moscow continued its air raids, adding jet-powered drones that resemble cruise missiles and are hard to down with Ukraine’s existing air defence system, he said.

“What is the basis for Kyiv’s and its backers’ conviction that strikes on oil refineries and depots will lead to Russia’s strategic defeat before Ukraine is defeated? I don’t understand,” he said.

However, Ukrainian attacks on data centres, bridges and factories where drones are assembled are far more effective, he said.

Recent strikes on data centres of Russian online giant Yandex and the state-run Sberbank resulted in disruptions of services in Russia and even former Soviet republics where Yandex operates its online payment, food delivery and taxi services.

Trump “didn’t ask him to stop the war, to give away cities or stop striking Russian rears in general,” Mitrokhin said.

Kyiv has repeatedly reiterated that it was ready to start peace talks if they are preceded by a ceasefire, but Moscow wanted to continue ground assaults and air raids until the peace terms were finalised – which could take months or even years.

‘We’re ready for any turn of events’

On Wednesday, Ukraine’s drone czar accused Elon Musk’s SpaceX of throttling Starlink satellite terminals that are part of the military-grade Starshield system.

Serhiy Beskrestnov said that SpaceX abruptly and without any warning limited services for terminals placed on drones flying over 160km/h (100mph).

The limit affected crucially-important interceptor drones and followed Trump’s request, presidential adviser Serhii Sternenko said.

Musk said that the White House owns and controls the Starshield systems and that any limits on speed are decided by Trump.

Some military analysts warn that the limit may be followed by a total shutdown of Starlink for Ukraine that could damage the quality of all military communications.

“But we were getting ready for everything,” Andriy Pronin told Al Jazeera. “We already know it may happen, that’s why we’re ready for any turn of events.”

In September 2022, Musk secretly ordered engineers to switch off Starlink coverage in the Russia-occupied Kherson region, effectively thwarting Kyiv’s push to retake it, Reuters reported.

In 2023, Musk threatened to cut off Ukrainian military access to Starlink unless the US defence department took over the costs.

Later, the Pentagon, Poland and other European allies took over the costs.

特朗普力推“能源停火”和和平谈判，导弹预警减少，对平民的威胁却日益加剧。

周二，基辅一栋多层住宅楼在俄罗斯导弹袭击中受损后，维多利亚·德涅科抱着她的女儿米娅。[Evgeniy Maloletka/AP]

乌克兰基辅——俄罗斯弹道导弹爆炸时发出超新星般的巨响，随之而来的是雷鸣般的巨响、冲击波、火焰和死亡——以及乌克兰防空系统断断续续的射击声。

本周对乌克兰的夜间袭击造成至少 15 人死亡，数十人受伤，与之前数百起袭击事件类似——只有一个例外。

列表1/4：俄罗斯对乌克兰发动“大规模”袭击，造成至少9人死亡，并损毁多个电力设施

列表 2/4：什么是钾肥？为什么美国要从白俄罗斯进口钾肥？

列表 3/4：海洋法在追捕受制裁的俄罗斯石油中得以体现

列表 4/4：马斯克称，在乌克兰引发强烈抗议后，美国军方控制着星链的传输限制。

就在又一波导弹袭击公寓楼、发电厂和仓库的前几秒或后几秒，空袭警报开始呼啸而过。

但乌克兰总统泽连斯基周一表示，随着华盛顿和基辅之间的紧张局势加剧，乌克兰的伙伴国没有向该国提供来自北约预警卫星的情报数据。

他没有点名美国，而唐纳德·特朗普总统也否认华盛顿已经停止分享情报。

这组军用卫星在俄罗斯弹道导弹发射后几秒钟内，就能通过火箭的热火焰探测到导弹的攻击。

预警给了乌克兰人最多 10 分钟的时间——这是宝贵的、能够挽救生命的时间，让他们可以拉响空袭警报并发送紧急短信，以便疏散到防空洞。

“这有助于防止杀戮，”泽连斯基说。

乌克兰的地面雷达只能探测到速度在每小时 6,000 至 12,000 公里（每小时 3,730 至 7,260 英里）之间的来袭导弹。

“特朗普向我们的总统施压”

尽管特朗普否认，但乌克兰观察人士却有一个简单却令人担忧的解释——美国总统希望通过向基辅施压，迫使其与莫斯科宣布“能源停火”，从而降低全球油价，以此帮助共和党在即将到来的中期选举中赢得更多国会席位。

乌克兰武装部队前总参谋部副部长伊戈尔·罗曼年科中将告诉半岛电视台：“特朗普向我们的总统施压，向乌克兰施压”，因为他正努力“不择手段地在竞选活动中获取优势”。

他说，情报数据的缺乏“严重影响了防空的有效性，我们没有时间做出反应”。

他说，如果没有卫星数据，乌克兰的无人机和导弹在打击俄罗斯纵深目标时也会“失去精度”。

周日，特朗普宣布停火，该停火协议规定双方不会对能源基础设施（从俄罗斯的炼油厂和燃料库到乌克兰的发电厂和供热站）进行相互打击。

“即日起，俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的能源战争进入停火状态。双方都已同意。不要违反它！”特朗普在社交媒体上写道。

基辅方面表示这一宣布令人意外，而莫斯科方面则拒绝透露是否支持这一想法，并继续打击乌克兰的能源基础设施。

压力不仅限于炼油厂，特朗普还希望尽快重启、调解并完成基辅和莫斯科之间的和平谈判——即使这些谈判对克里姆林宫有利。

“他需要和平谈判取得成功。理想情况下，和平解决进程需要得到一定程度的解封，基辅方面要表现出更大的意愿去接受俄罗斯的要求，”基辅分析师伊加尔·蒂什克维奇告诉半岛电视台。

他说，施压将持续到“基辅方面表现出愿意向俄罗斯做出妥协和让步”为止。

他说，莫斯科“纯粹滥用”压力和暂停空袭警报，以升级对乌克兰的袭击。

基辅的“首要任务”：摧毁炼油厂

考虑到基辅方面确实停止了对俄罗斯炼油厂的袭击三天，暂停数据共享尤其令人震惊。

俄罗斯副总理亚历山大·诺瓦克表示，就在周三，俄罗斯无人机袭击了萨拉托夫和梁赞地区的炼油厂。

另一位观察人士表示，基辅集中力量打击炼油厂的做法是无效的，而且适得其反。

“基辅的战略重点仍然是摧毁炼油厂，”德国不来梅大学的尼古拉·米特罗欣告诉半岛电视台。米特罗欣曾撰写过数百篇关于敌对行动的权威分析文章。

然而，俄罗斯克服了最初的冲击，从西伯利亚的炼油厂运输天然气，并从邻国白俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦出口。

他说，空袭之后没有出现经济崩溃、大规模失业或公众抗议，而莫斯科继续进行空袭，并增加了类似巡航导弹的喷气式无人机，这些无人机很难被乌克兰现有的防空系统击落。

“基辅及其支持者为何如此坚信，袭击炼油厂和油库就能在乌克兰战败之前就导致俄罗斯的战略失败？我不明白，”他说。

但他表示，乌克兰对数据中心、桥梁和无人机组装工厂的袭击要有效得多。

最近，俄罗斯在线巨头 Yandex 和国营俄罗斯联邦储蓄银行的数据中心遭到袭击，导致俄罗斯境内的服务中断，甚至在 Yandex 运营在线支付、食品配送和出租车服务的苏联前加盟共和国也受到影响。

米特罗欣说，特朗普“并没有要求他停止战争，放弃城市，或者停止打击俄罗斯后方”。

基辅方面一再重申，如果先实现停火，它愿意开始和平谈判；但莫斯科方面希望继续进行地面进攻和空袭，直到和平条款最终确定为止——这可能需要数月甚至数年时间。

“我们已做好应对任何情况的准备。”

周三，乌克兰无人机负责人指责埃隆·马斯克的SpaceX公司限制了星链卫星终端的速度，而星链卫星终端是军用级星盾系统的一部分。

谢尔盖·贝斯克列斯特诺夫表示，SpaceX 在没有任何警告的情况下突然限制了安装在飞行速度超过 160 公里/小时（100 英里/小时）的无人机上的终端的服务。

总统顾问谢尔盖·斯特年科表示，这一限制影响了至关重要的拦截无人机，并且是应特朗普的要求而做出的。

马斯克表示，星盾系统归白宫所有并由其控制，任何速度限制都由特朗普决定。

一些军事分析人士警告说，这一限制可能会导致乌克兰的星链服务完全关闭，从而损害所有军事通信的质量。

“但我们已经做好了一切准备，”安德烈·普罗宁告诉半岛电视台。“我们知道这种情况可能会发生，所以我们做好了应对任何情况的准备。”

据路透社报道，2022 年 9 月，马斯克秘密命令工程师关闭俄罗斯占领的赫尔松地区的星链覆盖范围，有效地挫败了基辅重新夺回该地区的努力。

2023年，马斯克威胁称，除非美国国防部承担相关费用，否则将切断乌克兰军方对星链的访问权限。

后来，五角大楼、波兰和其他欧洲盟国承担了这些费用。