US-Iran stalemate: What are Trump’s next military options?

Trump has ruled out attacks before the midterms. Analysts weigh what he could do next, and at what cost.

The USS Theodore Roosevelt [File: Marco Garcia/Reuters]

United States President Donald Trump has stated on his social media platform Truth Social that he will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections.

But he also told a Republican convention in September that the conflict “is going to end immediately after the elections”, and the US military has been sending more forces to the region in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have surged to their highest level since the war began, with an Iranian official telling the Reuters news agency that Tehran has begun using different offensive tactics against vessels it considers to violate its restrictions.

As control of the Strait of Hormuz remains central to the US-Iran conflict, what military options does Trump have left, and what would each cost?

Al Jazeera spoke to military analysts to find out more:

Where does the US-Iran war stand?

The US and Israel first launched an attack on Iran on February 28, triggering counterattacks by Iran against US military assets and other infrastructure in Gulf countries and Jordan in the following months.

Iran also closed the Strait of Hormuz, which carried at least 20 percent of global crude and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies before the war, sending global energy markets into chaos. The price of Crude Oil – the global benchmark – rose from about $72 a barrel the day before the war began to a high of nearly $120 a barrel earlier this year. On Thursday, it was trading at about $104.

A June ceasefire agreement collapsed over control of the strait, and Washington has kept up a naval blockade on Iran’s southern ports while Iran has continued to attack ships attempting to pass through. Indirect talks via Pakistan and Qatar continue – along with the exchange of various proposals from each side – but Trump rejected Iran’s latest offer to reopen the strait last month.

The US has “enormous military capability that Iran can’t match”, but it has not delivered the outcomes Washington wants, Afzal Ashraf, a visiting fellow in international relations and security at Loughborough University in the United Kingdom and a former senior Royal Air Force officer who served in Iraq, told Al Jazeera.

What forces does the US have in the Middle East right now?

It has at least three aircraft carrier strike groups in the Gulf, or heading towards it.

The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group, carrying about 7,000 sailors and 2,000 Marines, is sailing to the Middle East to join the carriers already there.

The US also maintains a host of military assets and about 50,000 soldiers at different bases in Middle East countries.

What are Trump’s military options?

The US naval blockade on Iranian ports and the naval escorts for commercial ships it has been providing through the Strait of Hormuz are the status quo, which it can continue. This is the most likely course of action, Patrick Bury, a senior associate professor at the University of Bath and former NATO research analyst, told Al Jazeera.

Before the war began, the Strait of Hormuz typically handled about 125 large commercial vessels a day, carrying an average of 17.1 million barrels of oil. This collapsed with the closure of the strait in March.

In recent weeks, with the help of US Navy escorts, Gulf oil flows through Hormuz – excluding Iran’s – had recovered to more than 81 percent of pre-war levels in September, according to maritime tracking firm Kpler. However, this has again reversed with Iran’s recent stepping up of attacks on ships in the strait. According to Kpler, only 2.9 million barrels of oil were carried through the waterway on October 11, the lowest level this month.

Washington is trying to maintain patrols and surveillance over the southwestern side of the strait, “enough to give ships some sort of protection to get out”, Bury said. Increasingly, drones do the grunt work of feeding intelligence and carrying out attacks, which is cheaper than keeping aircraft on long sorties. “I mean, it’s been somewhat effective,” he said, adding that high oil prices and crew bonuses mean “people are willing to take some risk.”

But now, Iran has changed tactics.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre recorded 15 attacks on ships between October 6 and 14. Iran appears well prepared, Bury said, pointing to “the asymmetry of costs”. “By dint of its geography”, he explained, Iran still enjoys “a kind of easier starting point.”

Resume air and missile attacks

This is another option.

Trump has said it may be “possible” to ramp up bombing after the elections, but has not given details.

If the situation does escalate, however, Bury said he expects “further strikes in fairly limited packets” against targets on Iran’s coastline and further inland.

A new campaign could “actually achieve a lot less” than the hits earlier this year, Ashraf said, because Iran has adapted. “They have fewer, but they can conceal them better,” he said of its weapons.

The costs would also be high for the US, which has already depleted much of its stockpile of very expensive defensive missile systems.

Each relatively cheap Iranian drone or missile can force the US to fire “an interceptor of a million [dollars] or more”, he said, and “the United States is running out of missiles for its own defence.”

Furthermore, the US has fired more than 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles at Iran during the course of the war. Fully restoring its pre-war inventory could take until the end of 2030, according to estimates from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Getting back to pre-war levels across key munitions would take “three to four years”, Bury said. “The problem is to solve that issue takes a long time, even when you press Go with the money.”

Tehran has also promised to hit back harder. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared last month that the era of “proportionate responses” was over.

Renewed attacks could also cost Washington access to some Gulf bases, Ashraf said.

Iran’s recent retaliation has targeted Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain, sparing other Gulf states that Ashraf said may have reached an understanding with Tehran to stay out of the fighting.

US Navy flight deck crew member watch as an F/A-18 Super Hornet lands on board the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt [File: Michelle Bir/AFP]

Could a US ground operation against Iran be an option?

It is very unlikely, experts say.

One target could be Kharg Island , 26km (16 miles) off Iran’s coast, which handles about 90 percent of Iran’s exports.

Joseph Votel, a former US Central Command (CENTCOM) commander, has said 800 to 1,000 soldiers could take it, but they would be highly exposed to fire from the mainland, according to Reuters.

Ashraf said US forces could launch a limited invasion, likely preceded by electronic warfare to blind Iranian defences.

But Iran would then attack the island itself. “They don’t need very much in the way of targeting information, once they know the island is occupied by American forces,” he said. “And the appetite for casualties is low in a war that is already very unpopular.”

Iran could also hit oil infrastructure across the Gulf in return, he warned, concluding that the seizure of Kharg Island would be “the most irrational of the irrational decisions”.

Is a full-scale US invasion of Iran possible?

This is also highly unlikely.

Trump has largely ruled out a ground offensive, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in March that ground troops would not be needed to achieve the administration’s goals.

“I don’t think they’re going to do it anyway,” Bury said, adding, “I don’t think they can do it, to be honest with you.”

Why does the timing matter?

This war is deeply unpopular with the US public, and Trump is facing mid-term elections in a matter of weeks.

About 65 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of it, according to the Pew Research Center.

Bury argued that the bigger question is whether the US can rebuild its military strength in a short amount of time. “Can America over the next few years regenerate that as a military power?” he said.

The task would outlast Trump’s term, he added, as “the next president would need to do the same thing anyway.”

The longer the war goes on, Ashraf warned, the greater the risk of unrest across the region, arguing that “we should not divorce the military options from the enormous capacity for political instability.”

On Sunday, Iran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei said Tehran had been striking vessels in the US-backed shuttle through the Strait of Hormuz every night for weeks.

“You are smuggling,” he said, “but the strait is under Iran’s control.”

特朗普已排除在中期选举前发动袭击的可能性。分析人士正在权衡他下一步可能采取的行动，以及可能付出的代价。

美国海军“西奥多·罗斯福”号航空母舰 [图片：Marco Garcia/路透社]

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在其社交媒体平台Truth Social上表示，他不会在11月3日中期选举前攻击伊朗。

但他在 9 月份的共和党大会上也表示，这场冲突“将在选举结束后立即结束”，而且最近几周，美国军方一直在向该地区增派兵力。

与此同时，伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡船只的袭击达到了战争开始以来的最高水平。一名伊朗官员告诉路透社，德黑兰已经开始对它认为违反其限制的船只采取不同的进攻策略。

由于控制霍尔木兹海峡仍然是美伊冲突的核心，特朗普还剩下哪些军事选项，每种选项的代价又是多少？

半岛电视台采访了多位军事分析人士，以了解更多信息：

美伊战争局势目前如何？

美国和以色列于 2 月 28 日首次对伊朗发动袭击，随后几个月，伊朗对美国在海湾国家和约旦的军事资产和其他基础设施进行了反击。

伊朗还封锁了霍尔木兹海峡，战前该海峡承载着全球至少20%的原油和液化天然气（LNG）供应，此举导致全球能源市场陷入混乱。原油价格——全球基准油价——从战前一天的每桶约72美元飙升至今年早些时候的近120美元高位。周四，原油价格约为每桶104美元。

6月份达成的停火协议因霍尔木兹海峡控制权之争而破裂，华盛顿方面继续对伊朗南部港口实施海上封锁，而伊朗则继续袭击试图通过该海峡的船只。双方通过巴基斯坦和卡塔尔进行的间接谈判仍在继续，彼此也交换了各种提议，但特朗普上个月拒绝了伊朗提出的重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的最新提议。

英国拉夫堡大学国际关系与安全访问学者、曾在伊拉克服役的前英国皇家空军高级军官阿夫扎尔·阿什拉夫告诉半岛电视台，美国拥有“伊朗无法匹敌的巨大军事能力”，但并未实现华盛顿想要的结果。

美国目前在中东拥有哪些兵力？

该国至少有三个航空母舰打击群在海湾地区，或者正在向海湾地区推进。

载有约 7000 名水兵和 2000 名海军陆战队员的“西奥多·罗斯福”号航母打击群正驶往中东，与已经在那里的航母会合。

美国还在中东各国的不同基地驻扎着大量军事资产和约 5 万名士兵。

特朗普有哪些军事选项？

美国对伊朗港口的封锁以及通过霍尔木兹海峡为商船提供的海上护航行动，构成了现状，而且可以继续下去。巴斯大学高级副教授、前北约研究分析员帕特里克·伯里告诉半岛电视台，这很可能是美方采取的行动。

战争爆发前，霍尔木兹海峡每天通常有约125艘大型商船通行，平均每天运输1710万桶石油。随着海峡在3月份关闭，这一数字骤然下降。

据海事追踪公司Kpler的数据显示，近几周来，在美国海军护航舰艇的协助下，经霍尔木兹海峡的波斯湾石油流量（不包括伊朗的石油）已恢复至9月份战前水平的81%以上。然而，随着伊朗近期加大了对海峡船只的袭击力度，这一趋势再次逆转。Kpler的数据显示，10月11日仅有290万桶石油通过该水道，为本月最低水平。

伯里说，华盛顿正试图在海峡西南侧维持巡逻和监视，“足以保护船只安全出海”。无人机越来越多地承担着情报收集和攻击等繁重任务，这比让飞机执行长时间飞行任务成本更低。“我的意思是，这在一定程度上是有效的，”他说道，并补充说，高油价和船员奖金意味着“人们愿意承担一定的风险”。

但现在，伊朗改变了策略。

英国海事贸易行动中心（UKMTO）记录显示，10月6日至14日期间共发生15起针对船只的袭击事件。伯里指出，伊朗似乎已做好充分准备，并强调了“成本上的不对称”。他解释说，“由于其地理位置”，伊朗仍然拥有“相对更容易的行动起点”。

恢复空袭和导弹袭击

这是另一种选择。

特朗普曾表示，选举后“有可能”加大轰炸力度，但没有透露细节。

不过，伯里表示，如果局势升级，他预计伊朗海岸线及内陆目标将遭到“规模相当有限的进一步打击”。

阿什拉夫表示，新的打击行动“实际效果可能远不如”今年早些时候的打击行动，因为伊朗已经适应了新的战术。“他们的武器数量减少了，但隐藏得更好了，”他谈到伊朗的武器时说道。

对于美国而言，代价也将很高，因为美国已经消耗了大量非常昂贵的防御导弹系统库存。

他说，伊朗每架相对廉价的无人机或导弹都能迫使美国发射“价值一百万美元或更多的拦截器”，而且“美国用于自身防御的导弹也快用完了”。

此外，战争期间，美国已向伊朗发射了1000多枚战斧巡航导弹。据战略与国际研究中心（CSIS）估计，全面恢复其战前库存可能需要到2030年底。

伯里表示，要使关键军需品的储备恢复到战前水平需要“三到四年时间”。“问题在于，即使资金到位，解决这个问题也需要很长时间。”

德黑兰方面也承诺将采取更强硬的反击措施。议长穆罕默德·巴格尔·加利巴夫上个月宣布，“对等回应”的时代已经结束。

阿什拉夫表示，再次发动袭击也可能导致华盛顿失去对一些海湾基地的使用权。

伊朗最近的报复行动针对约旦、科威特和巴林，而其他海湾国家则幸免于难。阿什拉夫表示，这些国家可能已经与德黑兰达成谅解，不会卷入战斗。

美国海军飞行甲板上的船员观看一架F/A-18超级大黄蜂战斗机降落在“西奥多·罗斯福”号航空母舰上。[图片：Michelle Bir/AFP]

美国对伊朗发动地面军事行动是否可行？

专家表示，这种情况发生的可能性非常小。

其中一个目标可能是距离伊朗海岸 26 公里（16 英里）的哈尔克岛，该岛承担了伊朗约 90% 的出口货物运输。

据路透社报道，美国中央司令部（CENTCOM）前司令约瑟夫·沃特尔表示，800至1000名士兵可以占领该堡垒，但他们将极易受到来自大陆的炮火攻击。

阿什拉夫表示，美军可能会发动有限入侵，并可能先进行电子战以瘫痪伊朗的防御系统。

但伊朗随后会直接攻击该岛。“一旦他们知道该岛被美军占领，他们就不需要太多目标信息了，”他说。“而且，在这场本就不得人心的战争中，他们也不愿承受伤亡。”

他还警告说，伊朗也可能对海湾地区的石油基础设施进行报复性打击，并总结说，占领哈尔克岛将是“最不理智的决定”。

美国全面入侵伊朗的可能性有多大？

这种情况也极不可能发生。

特朗普基本上排除了地面进攻的可能性，而国务卿马可·卢比奥在3月份表示，不需要地面部队就能实现政府的目标。

“我觉得他们反正也不会这么做，”伯里说，“说实话，我觉得他们也做不到。”

为什么时机很重要？

这场战争在美国民众中极不受欢迎，而特朗普将在几周后面临中期选举。

皮尤研究中心的数据显示，约有 65% 的美国人不赞成特朗普对此事的处理方式。

伯里认为，更重要的问题是美国能否在短时间内重建其军事实力。“美国能否在未来几年内重振雄风，再次成为军事强国？”他问道。

他补充说，这项任务将持续到特朗普任期结束之后，因为“下一任总统无论如何都需要做同样的事情”。

阿什拉夫警告说，战争持续的时间越长，整个地区发生动乱的风险就越大，他认为“我们不应该将军事选项与巨大的政治不稳定可能性割裂开来”。

周日，伊朗安全局局长莫森·雷扎伊表示，德黑兰已经连续数周每晚袭击美国支持的通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只。

“你们在走私，”他说，“但海峡在伊朗的控制之下。”