Economy stays resilient

MARC group CEO Arshad Mohamed Ismail.

PETALING JAYA: The Malaysian economy continues to showcase fundamental underlying strengths from a credit standpoint, says Malaysian Rating Corp Bhd (MARC Ratings) group chief executive officer Arshad Mohamed Ismail following the recently tabled Budget 2027.

MARC Ratings currently maintains Malaysia’s sovereign rating at AAA with a “stable” outlook, based on the credit rating agency’s national rating scale.

“Our assessment reflects Malaysia’s key credit strengths, including an open and increasingly diversified economy, sound monetary policy, a resilient financial sector, a strong external position, and continued progress in structural and institutional reforms,” he said at the MARC360: Decoding Budget 2027 webinar yesterday.

MARC Ratings’ gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast stands at 5% for 2027, while its 2026 projection remains at 5.1%, Kamal Zharif Jauhari, senior economist at MARC Ratings shared.

In its Economic Outlook 2027 report, the Finance Ministry (MoF) raised its 2026 real GDP growth projections to 4.8% to 5.3%, up from 4% to 4.5% in Budget 2026, and expects growth of 4.2% to 5.2% in 2027.

Budget 2027 seeks to balance continued fiscal consolidation with domestic household spending and investment.

“Investments, as well as exports, particularly in the semiconductor realm, will continue to support the economy,” Kamal Zharif said.

He added that Malaysia’s electrical and electronics (E&E) sector has further “room to grow” amid the global technology upcycle.

“Global semiconductor sales are hitting more than 125% year-on-year whereas Malaysia’s E&E exports are between 25% to 75%, and our exports have been growing around the 30% to 50% range.”

Additionally, Malaysia’s liquefied natural gas exports have also risen as a result of the Middle East conflict, he said.

“With the supply crunch, we now see this turnaround towards looking for sources outside of the Middle East, and Malaysia stands to benefit from that.”

The MoF aims to narrow the fiscal deficit from 2025’s 3.7% of GDP to 3.6% in 2026, to 3.3% in 2027, and towards 3% by 2028.

However, Kamal Zharif noted that the deficit target of 3.3% in 2027, in absolute terms, is projected to be a marginal fall of only RM1bil, as revenue declines relative to GDP.

Malaysia’s economic growth momentum supports its targeted fiscal path in 2026, with GDP growing by 5.7% in the first half of financial year 2026 (1H26) and approved investments rising 11.7% y-o-y to RM218.5bil in 1H26, he said.

Additionally, gross exports surged 31.2% to RM1.4 trillion in the first eight months of 2026.

Higher revenue offset most of the subsidy and social assistance, which overran during the year, limiting the deficit at 3.6% of GDP, he added. MARC Ratings said in a release that medium-term outcomes for the country will increasingly hinge on revenue mobilisation, subsidy rationalisation, and productivity improvements from public investment.

Moody’s Ratings’ vice-president, credit strategy and guidance group, Deborah Tan, said that despite the global credit rating agency’s negative outlook for Asia Pacific sovereigns overall, driven by the energy shock from the Middle East conflict pushing inflation and weighing on growth prospects, economies which lean on artificial intelligence-related exports have remained resilient.

“Malaysia sits on the right side of the divide,” she said. “In July this year, we raised our 2026 growth forecast for Malaysia to around 5% for this year.”

Tan added that the economy is supported by strong electronics and data centre demand, as well as resilient domestic spending, while the ringgit has remained fairly stable and the nation’s reserve buffers have been at very high levels relative to the past decade.

On risks for Malaysia, she said the prolonging of the energy shock would have an impact on subsidies and borrowing costs.

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MARC集团首席执行官阿尔沙德·穆罕默德·伊斯梅尔。

八打灵再也：马来西亚评级机构（MARC Ratings）集团首席执行官阿尔沙德·穆罕默德·伊斯梅尔在最近提交的2027年财政预算案后表示，从信用角度来看，马来西亚经济继续展现出基本面的强劲实力。

根据信用评级机构的国家评级标准，MARC Ratings 目前维持马来西亚主权信用评级为 AAA，展望为“稳定”。

“我们的评估反映了马来西亚的主要信用优势，包括开放且日益多元化的经济、稳健的货币政策、具有韧性的金融部门、强大的外部地位以及在结构和体制改革方面持续取得的进展，”他昨天在 MARC360：解读 2027 年预算案网络研讨会上表示。

MARC Ratings 高级经济学家 Kamal Zharif Jauhari 表示，MARC Ratings 对 2027 年国内生产总值 (GDP) 增长的预测为 5%，而对 2026 年的预测仍为 5.1%。

在《2027 年经济展望》报告中，财政部将 2026 年实际 GDP 增长预期从 2026 年预算案中的 4% 至 4.5% 上调至 4.8% 至 5.3%，并预计 2027 年的增长率为 4.2% 至 5.2%。

2027 年预算案旨在平衡持续的财政整顿与国内家庭支出和投资。

卡迈勒·扎里夫表示：“投资以及出口，特别是半导体领域的出口，将继续支撑经济发展。”

他还补充说，在全球技术周期上行的背景下，马来西亚的电气和电子（E&E）行业还有进一步的“增长空间”。

“全球半导体销售额同比增长超过 125%，而马来西亚的电子电气产品出口增长率在 25% 到 75% 之间，我们的出口增长率一直在 30% 到 50% 左右。”

他还表示，由于中东冲突，马来西亚的液化天然气出口也有所上升。

“由于供应短缺，我们现在看到这种趋势转向在中东以外寻找货源，马来西亚有望从中受益。”

财政部的目标是将财政赤字从 2025 年占 GDP 的 3.7% 缩小到 2026 年的 3.6%，2027 年缩小到 3.3%，到 2028 年缩小到 3%。

然而，卡迈勒·扎里夫指出，2027 年 3.3% 的赤字目标，从绝对值来看，预计只会略微下降 10 亿令吉，因为收入相对于 GDP 有所下降。

他表示，马来西亚的经济增长势头支撑着其2026年的财政目标，2026财年上半年国内生产总值增长5.7%，获批投资同比增长11.7%至2185亿令吉。

此外，2026 年前八个月的总出口额飙升 31.2%，达到 1.4 万亿令吉。

他补充说，更高的财政收入抵消了大部分超支的补贴和社会援助支出，从而将赤字控制在GDP的3.6%。MARC评级机构在一份声明中表示，该国的中期发展前景将越来越取决于财政收入的筹集、补贴的合理化以及公共投资带来的生产力提升。

穆迪评级公司信贷策略与指导小组副总裁黛博拉·谭表示，尽管受中东冲突带来的能源冲击推高通胀、拖累经济增长前景的影响，这家全球信用评级机构对亚太地区主权国家的整体前景持负面态度，但依赖人工智能相关出口的经济体仍然保持韧性。

“马来西亚处于经济增长的正确一边，”她说。“今年7月，我们将马来西亚2026年的经济增长预期上调至今年的5%左右。”

谭先生补充说，强劲的电子产品和数据中心需求以及富有韧性的国内消费支撑着经济发展，同时令吉汇率保持相对稳定，国家外汇储备相对于过去十年也处于非常高的水平。

关于马来西亚面临的风险，她表示，能源冲击的持续将对补贴和借贷成本产生影响。

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经济保持韧性

祖基菲里表示，马来西亚需要一个综合性的照护经济来应对人口老龄化问题。

国际货币基金组织预测，印度将在2027年超越日本，成为世界第四大经济体。