Why is China buying up gold?

Beijing’s gold purchases reflect a shift away from reliance on US dollar assets, experts say.

A sales assistant displays a gold bar as an investment for a customer at Caibai Jewelry store, in Beijing, China, August 6, 2019 [File: Jason Lee/Reuters]

China is increasing its gold reserves in a bid to reduce its dependence on US dollar assets and protect against financial and geopolitical risks, analysts say, while households are turning to the precious metal amid uncertainty over the domestic economy.

The People’s Bank of China reported buying gold for a 23rd consecutive month in September, when the country’s central bank also made its largest monthly purchase in nearly three years. The sustained buying points to a longer-term effort to spread risk associated with its vast reserves, experts say.

Among concerns is high US debt and Western governments’ freezing of assets, which has highlighted the inherent risk in holding money overseas, particularly for emerging market and Global South economies. Gold bought and stored domestically offers protection against that risk because access does not depend on the will of another government.

But central bank buying and household demand for gold in China have different drivers. While Beijing is managing its financial exposure, private investors are seeking somewhere to preserve their savings. Here is what we know.

How much gold has China bought?

China’s central bank added approximately 23 tonnes of gold in September, bringing its reported holdings to about 2,410 tonnes, according to the World Gold Council. That was its largest monthly purchase since October 2023. Gold accounted for 8.5 percent of China’s total official reserves at the end of September, compared with 5.5 percent at the end of 2024.

Reserves are assets central banks hold to ensure they can meet international payments and respond to financial disruption. They usually include foreign currencies, foreign government debt and gold.

Private demand for gold within China has also risen, with purchases of gold bars and coins 28.4 percent higher in the first half of 2026 than during the same period last year, according to the China Gold Association. The buying of gold has continued amid falling prices, with gold down around 8.5 percent over the month.

The World Gold Council attributed the decline in gold prices partly to a stronger dollar and higher returns on US government debt. With interest rates going up in an attempt to curb inflation, these investments are attractive for buyers as they pay interest, making them more attractive to private investors than gold, which does not.

Why is China buying more gold?

A key objective is to reduce dependence on US government debt, known as Treasuries, according to Thu Lan Nguyen, head of commodity research at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

China holds substantial reserves in dollar-based assets and, therefore, buying gold reduces its exposure to decisions taken in Washington. “China’s gold purchases are part of a broader effort to make its reserves more resilient,” Nguyen told Al Jazeera.

The freezing by Western countries of roughly $300bn in Russian Central Bank overseas assets following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 demonstrated how reserves held abroad can quickly become inaccessible.

The concern for China may be that a future confrontation with Washington could expose some of its overseas assets to similar restrictions. “Gold held domestically has a crucial advantage in this respect: it does not represent a claim on another country and is therefore much less exposed to sanctions or asset freezes,” Nguyen said.

“I would interpret it primarily as risk management,” she added, pointing to increased geopolitical tensions and economic and fiscal risks.

America’s rising debt, which hit $40 trillion for the first time in history earlier this year, adds another source of uncertainty. In February, the US Congressional Budget Office projected that federal debt held by the public would rise from 101 percent of the size of the US economy in 2026 to 120 percent in 2036. That provides context for concerns about Washington’s ability to repay that debt going forward should an economic crash occur. Much of this debt is held by China. Gold, therefore, offers a less volatile and risky asset to hold.

Chinese households have different motivations for buying gold. When confidence in other investments weakens, gold can become more attractive as a way to hold savings. “Strong demand for gold can partly reflect a search for alternative stores of value,” Nguyen said.

The World Gold Council has identified weak Chinese share markets as one factor supporting domestic demand for gold, while its property market is burdened by heavy borrowing and overbuilding, contributing to a fall in housing prices, making it a poorer investment.

What this means for the US dollar

Analysts warned that China’s increased buying of gold does not signal an imminent end to the dollar’s global dominance. “I would be cautious about describing this as a major shift away from the dollar,” Nguyen said. “The dollar remains by far the dominant global reserve currency.”

But a gradual shift could still matter if China and other central banks put more of their new reserves into gold, buying fewer US assets than they normally would. That could weaken one source of demand for US government debt. But the effect would depend on how widely and quickly the shift developed.

“The key point is, therefore, that this is likely to be a slow diversification process rather than a sudden abandonment of the dollar,” Nguyen said. She added that the consequences for the US economy would remain limited unless the trend broadened and accelerated substantially.

Central banks also need readily available foreign currency to support international payments and the dollar remains central to those transactions. So gold can provide financial protection, but it cannot directly replace all the functions of dollar reserves.

Who else is buying gold?

China is part of a wider trend, particularly among central banks in emerging economies, Nguyen said.

“The trend is particularly visible among emerging market central banks,” Nguyen said. “But sanctions are only part of the story.”

Poland has also become a more prominent buyer. Its central bank purchased 31 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026 and another eight tonnes in July, according to the World Gold Council.

Large holdings do not necessarily indicate recent purchases. India, for example, confirmed in June that its physical gold stock remained unchanged at about 880.5 tonnes. India’s gold reserves have changed little since mid-2025, according to the World Gold Council. It bought about four tonnes in 2025, down from 73 tonnes in 2024.

Despite China’s sustained buying, its reserves remain far smaller than those of the United States. Its holdings of about 2,300 tonnes at the end of 2025 amounted to less than one-third of the US stockpile of approximately 8,133 tonnes.

专家表示，北京购买黄金反映出其正在减少对美元资产的依赖。

2019年8月6日，在中国北京，一名销售助理在财白珠宝店向顾客展示金条作为投资产品。[图片：Jason Lee/路透社]

分析人士称，中国正在增加黄金储备，以减少对美元资产的依赖，并防范金融和地缘政治风险；与此同时，由于国内经济的不确定性，家庭正在转向这种贵金属。

中国人民银行9月份连续第23个月购入黄金，当月也是近三年来单月购金规模最大的一次。专家表示，持续购金表明中国正着手分散其庞大储备带来的风险。

其中令人担忧的因素包括美国高额债务和西方政府冻结资产，这凸显了在海外持有资金的固有风险，尤其对于新兴市场和全球南方经济体而言。在国内购买和储存黄金可以规避这种风险，因为获取黄金不受他国政府意志的限制。

但中国央行购金和家庭黄金需求背后的驱动因素不同。北京方面在控制金融风险敞口，而私人投资者则在寻求保值避险之所。以下是我们目前掌握的信息。

中国购买了多少黄金？

据世界黄金协会的数据，中国央行9月份增持黄金约23吨，使其官方公布的黄金持有量达到约2410吨。这是自2023年10月以来中国央行单月增持黄金的最大规模。截至9月底，黄金占中国官方黄金储备总额的8.5%，而2024年底这一比例预计为5.5%。

储备是中央银行为确保能够履行国际支付义务和应对金融动荡而持有的资产。储备通常包括外汇、外国政府债券和黄金。

中国黄金协会的数据显示，中国国内对黄金的私人需求也在上升，2026年上半年金条和金币的购买量比去年同期增长了28.4%。尽管金价下跌，但黄金购买仍在继续，本月金价下跌了约8.5%。

世界黄金协会将金价下跌的部分原因归咎于美元走强和美国国债收益率上升。由于利率上升旨在抑制通胀，这些能够产生利息的投资对买家颇具吸引力，因此比不产生利息的黄金更受私人投资者青睐。

中国为何增持黄金？

据德国商业银行法兰克福大宗商品研究主管阮秋兰 (Thu Lan Nguyen) 称，一个关键目标是减少对美国政府债务（即国债）的依赖。

中国持有大量美元资产储备，因此购买黄金可以降低其受华盛顿决策影响的风险敞口。“中国购买黄金是其增强储备韧性的更广泛努力的一部分，”阮告诉半岛电视台。

2022年莫斯科入侵乌克兰后，西方国家冻结了俄罗斯中央银行约3000亿美元的海外资产，这表明海外储备可能很快就会变得无法动用。

中国担心的是，未来与华盛顿的对抗可能会使其部分海外资产面临类似的限制。“在这方面，国内持有的黄金具有关键优势：它不代表对其他国家的索取权，因此受制裁或资产冻结的影响要小得多，”阮先生说。

她补充说：“我主要将其解读为风险管理”，并指出地缘政治紧张局势加剧以及经济和财政风险。

今年早些时候，美国债务首次突破40万亿美元大关，创历史新高，这无疑增加了不确定性。今年2月，美国国会预算办公室预测，公众持有的联邦债务将占美国经济规模的比例从2026年的101%上升到2036年的120%。这凸显了人们对华盛顿未来在经济危机爆发时偿还债务能力的担忧。而这些债务中很大一部分由中国持有。因此，黄金提供了一种波动性更低、风险更小的资产选择。

中国家庭购买黄金的动机各不相同。当人们对其他投资的信心减弱时，黄金作为一种储蓄方式就更具吸引力。“对黄金的强劲需求，部分原因可能反映了人们寻求其他价值储存手段，”阮先生表示。

世界黄金协会指出，疲软的中国股市是支撑国内黄金需求的一个因素，而中国房地产市场则受到高额借贷和过度建设的拖累，导致房价下跌，使其成为较差的投资选择。

这对美元意味着什么

分析人士警告称，中国增加黄金购买量并不意味着美元的全球主导地位即将终结。“我不认为这预示着美元地位的重大转变，”阮先生表示，“美元仍然是迄今为止全球最主要的储备货币。”

但如果中国和其他国家的央行将更多新增储备投资于黄金，减少对美国资产的购买，那么这种渐进式的转变仍然可能产生影响。这可能会削弱对美国国债的需求来源之一。但其影响将取决于这种转变的范围和速度。

阮女士表示：“因此，关键在于这很可能是一个缓慢的多元化过程，而不是突然放弃美元。”她补充说，除非这一趋势大幅扩大和加速，否则对美国经济的影响将仍然有限。

各国央行也需要随时可用的外汇来支持国际支付，而美元在这些交易中仍然占据核心地位。因此，黄金可以提供金融保护，但它无法直接取代美元储备的所有功能。

还有谁在买黄金？

阮先生表示，中国的情况是更大趋势的一部分，尤其是在新兴经济体的中央银行中。

阮表示：“这种趋势在新兴市场国家的央行中尤为明显。但制裁只是问题的一部分。”

波兰也已成为一个更为重要的黄金买家。据世界黄金协会的数据，波兰中央银行在2026年第一季度购买了31吨黄金，7月份又购买了8吨。

持有量大并不一定意味着近期购入黄金。例如，印度在6月份证实，其实物黄金库存维持在约880.5吨不变。世界黄金协会的数据显示，自2025年年中以来，印度的黄金储备变化不大。2025年，印度购入了约4吨黄金，低于2024年的73吨。

尽管中国持续增持，但其石油储备仍远小于美国。到2025年底，中国的石油储备约为2300吨，不到美国约8133吨储备的三分之一。