Trump was once wary of ordering regime change in Iran. Here’s what made him change his mind

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — With Saturday’s military operation against Iran , President Donald Trump demonstrated a dramatic evolution in risk tolerance, adjusting in just a matter of months how far he was willing to go in using American military might to confront Tehran’s clerical rule.

Guardrails were tossed aside, as Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered up a battle plan that included targeted strikes on Iran’s leadership, including the 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei whose death Trump triumphantly announced in a social media post hours after launching the military operation.

For Trump, it was a far cry from where he stood just eight months ago. At Israel’s urging during its 12-day war with Iran last June, he agreed to deploy B-2 bombers to pummel three key Iranian nuclear sites — but drew a bright red line when Israelis presented his administration with a plan for killing Khamenei.

The president peppered the supreme leader with thinly veiled threats back in June that he could have killed him if he wanted to. But he rejected the Israeli plan out of concern that it would destabilize the region.

That caution was set aside on Saturday with Trump announcing Khamenei had been killed, while the Israeli military announced it had taken out Iran’s defense minister and the commander of its Revolutionary Guard. Iranian state media early Sunday reported the 86-year-old Supreme Leader’s death, without elaborating on a cause.

Khamenei “was unable to avoid our Intelligence and Highly Sophisticated Tracking Systems and, working closely with Israel, there was not a thing he, or the other leaders that have been killed along with him, could do,” Trump said. “This is the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country.”

Trump loses patience

Trump had pursued talks with Iran for months. Administration officials told reporters that they offered Iran many ways to have a peaceful nuclear program that could be used for civilian purposes, including an offer of free nuclear fuel in perpetuity.

But the officials, who were not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity, said it was clear to them that Iran wanted enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon. One of them said that Iran has met their offers with “games, tricks, stall tactics.”

The order to launch strikes came just two days after Trump dispatched his special envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, for another round of talks with Iranian officials . Middle East and European allies were urging the U.S. administration to give negotiations more time as Trump signaled he was running out of patience.

“The consequences are likely to be as far-reaching as they are uncertain: Within the system that has held power for nearly five decades, between the government and a dissatisfied populace, and between Iran and its adversaries,” said Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group. “And although the regime is weakened, a sense that this showdown is an all-or-nothing struggle for its very survival could lead it to respond with every tool still at its disposal.”

Revised risk calculation

Saturday’s strikes came after a series of past provocative actions against Iran that resulted in limited blowback, which seemed to inform Trump’s risk calculation, said Aaron David Miller, who served as an adviser on Middle East issues to Democratic and Republican administrations over two decades.

Trump in 2018 pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal negotiated by Democratic President Barack Obama’s administration. In 2020, Trump ordered a drone strike killing top Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani.

At the time, the killing of Soleimani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, was arguably the most provocative U.S. military action in the Middle East since President George W. Bush launched the 2003 Iraq War to topple Saddam Hussein.

And then Trump this past June ordered the strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, which he claimed had “obliterated” their program.

“He did all of these things without cost or consequence to him,” said Miller, who is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “He’s been risk-ready. That’s the nature of his personality.”

Trump administration officials had publicly urged Tehran to give up its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs and end its backing of regional armed proxies. But administration officials said that Tehran would not engage on the missile and proxy concerns.

Iran’s rigidity, at a moment when its economy is in shambles weighed by decades of sanctions and its military battered by last year’s war, astounded Trump.

Even before the latest round of talks ended on Thursday, there were signs Trump was leaning toward military action.

On Tuesday, Trump in his State of the Union speech claimed that Iran has been building ballistic missiles that could reach the U.S. homeland — a justification that he repeated again on Saturday as he announced the bombardment of Iran was underway.

Iran hasn’t acknowledged it is building or seeking to build intercontinental ballistic missiles. The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, however, said in an unclassified report last year that Iran could develop a militarily viable intercontinental ballistic missile by 2035 “should Tehran decide to pursue the capability.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Wednesday that Iran’s refusal to speak to its ballistic missile program was a “big problem.” Rubio declined to address the DIA finding that Iran was still years away from developing a missile that could reach the United States.

And Vice President JD Vance, a former U.S. Marine who served in Iraq and has been skeptical of U.S. interventions, on Thursday told The Washington Post that Trump hadn’t decided whether to strike Iran. But he offered assurances that military action would not result in the United States becoming involved in a drawn-out conflict.

“The idea that we’re going to be in a Middle Eastern war for years with no end in sight — there is no chance that will happen,” Vance said.

By Friday, Trump was venting anew about Iran’s approach.

“I’m not happy with the fact that they’re not willing to give us what we have to have,” Trump said. “I’m not thrilled with that. We’ll see what happens.”

Senior U.S. lawmakers were told early Saturday that the strikes were coming. Trump monitored the operation from his Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, with members of his national security team.

Trump may have been emboldened by his Venezuela experience

Trump’s success with the U.S. military operation earlier his year to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and whisk him and his wife to New York City to face federal drug conspiracy charges also may have emboldened the president, said Jonathan Schanzer, a former Treasury Department official who is now executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hawkish Washington think tank.

Trump had threatened military action last month, but held off, as Iran carried out a deadly crackdown on protests. The demonstrations were spurred by economic grievances but morphed into a nationwide, anti-government push against the ruling clerics.

As human rights groups reported that thousands were killed in the Iranian crackdown, Trump told protesters that help was on its way, but it did not immediately come and the protests petered out.

Schanzer said that Trump’s decision not to follow through last month gave his team more time to assemble the now massive presence of fighter jets and warships in the region — as he had done in the Caribbean ahead of the Venezuela operation.

It was leverage, Trump hoped, that would get Khamenei to blink. But the Supreme Leader would not capitulate.

“The way this unfolded was inevitable, because there was no way that the Ayatollah was going to show flexibility,” Schanzer said.

Madhani reported from Washington.

佛罗里达州西棕榈滩——随着周六对伊朗的军事行动，唐纳德·特朗普总统展现了其风险承受能力的巨大转变，在短短几个月内就调整了他愿意使用美国军事力量对抗德黑兰神权统治的程度。

特朗普和以色列总理内塔尼亚胡下令制定作战计划，其中包括对伊朗领导层进行定点打击，其中包括86岁的最高领袖阿亚图拉·阿里·哈梅内伊。特朗普在发动军事行动数小时后，在社交媒体上得意洋洋地宣布了哈梅内伊的死讯。

对特朗普而言，这与他八个月前的立场截然不同。去年六月，在以色列与伊朗爆发的为期十二天的战争期间，他应以色列的敦促，同意部署B-2轰炸机轰炸伊朗三个重要的核设施——但当以色列向他的政府提出刺杀哈梅内伊的计划时，他划清了界限。

早在六月份，总统就曾多次向最高领袖发出隐晦的威胁，称如果想的话，他随时可以杀了他。但他出于担心以色列的计划会破坏地区稳定，最终拒绝了该计划。

周六，特朗普宣布哈梅内伊遇害，与此同时，以色列军方宣布击毙了伊朗国防部长和革命卫队司令，此前谨慎的态度被抛诸脑后。伊朗国家媒体周日早些时候报道了这位86岁高龄的最高领袖的死讯，但未透露死因。

特朗普说：“哈梅内伊无法躲避我们的情报和高度精密的追踪系统，而且由于与以色列密切合作，他和与他一同被杀的其他领导人根本无能为力。这是伊朗人民夺回自己国家的最佳机会。”

特朗普失去了耐心

特朗普与伊朗进行了数月的谈判。政府官员告诉记者，他们向伊朗提供了许多发展和平利用核能并用于民用目的的方案，包括永久免费提供核燃料。

但这些未获授权公开置评、要求匿名的官员表示，他们很清楚伊朗想要的是用于制造核武器的浓缩铀。其中一位官员称，伊朗对他们的提议采取了“花招、诡计和拖延战术”。

就在特朗普派遣特使史蒂夫·威特科夫和贾里德·库什纳与伊朗官员进行新一轮会谈两天后，他便下令发动空袭。中东和欧洲盟友敦促美国政府给予谈判更多时间，而特朗普则暗示他已失去耐心。

国际危机组织伊朗项目主任阿里·瓦埃兹表示：“其后果可能影响深远，但也充满不确定性：不仅在执政近五十年的体制内部，在政府与不满的民众之间，而且在伊朗与其对手之间。” 他还说：“尽管伊朗政权已被削弱，但它仍然可能意识到这场摊牌关乎自身的生死存亡，并会动用一切手段进行反击。”

修订后的风险计算

曾担任民主党和共和党政府中东问题顾问二十余年的亚伦·戴维·米勒表示，周六的空袭是在过去一系列针对伊朗的挑衅行动之后发生的，这些行动所造成的反噬有限，这似乎影响了特朗普的风险评估。

2018年，特朗普退出了由民主党总统奥巴马政府谈判达成的伊朗核协议。2020年，特朗普下令发动无人机袭击，炸死了伊朗高级将领卡西姆·苏莱曼尼。

当时，伊朗精锐部队“圣城旅”指挥官苏莱曼尼被杀，可以说是自乔治·W·布什总统于 2003 年发动伊拉克战争推翻萨达姆·侯赛因政权以来，美国在中东地区最具挑衅性的军事行动。

今年六月，特朗普下令袭击伊朗核设施，并声称此举“摧毁”了伊朗的核计划。

“他做这一切事都没有付出任何代价或承担任何后果，”米勒说道，他现在是卡内基国际和平基金会的高级研究员。“他一直勇于承担风险。这就是他的性格。”

特朗普政府官员曾公开敦促德黑兰放弃核武器和弹道导弹计划，并停止支持地区武装代理人。但政府官员表示，德黑兰不会就导弹和代理人问题进行谈判。

伊朗在经济因数十年的制裁而陷入混乱，军队又因去年的战争而遭受重创之际，其强硬态度令特朗普感到震惊。

甚至在周四最新一轮会谈结束之前，就有迹象表明特朗普倾向于采取军事行动。

周二，特朗普在国情咨文中声称，伊朗一直在建造能够打到美国本土的弹道导弹——周六，他再次重申了这一理由，并宣布对伊朗的轰炸已经开始。

伊朗尚未承认正在或寻求建造洲际弹道导弹。然而，美国国防情报局去年在一份非机密报告中指出，如果德黑兰决定发展这项能力，伊朗可能在2035年之前研制出具有军事实用价值的洲际弹道导弹。

美国国务卿马可·卢比奥周三告诉记者，伊朗拒绝就其弹道导弹计划发表评论是一个“大问题”。卢比奥拒绝就国防情报局的调查结果发表评论，该调查结果显示，伊朗距离研制出能够打到美国的导弹还有数年时间。

曾服役于美国海军陆战队、在伊拉克作战并一直对美国军事干预持怀疑态度的副总统JD·万斯周四告诉《华盛顿邮报》，特朗普尚未决定是否对伊朗发动打击。但他保证，军事行动不会导致美国卷入旷日持久的冲突。

“那种认为我们会陷入一场旷日持久、看不到尽头的中东战争的想法——绝不可能发生，”万斯说。

到了周五，特朗普再次对伊朗的做法大发雷霆。

特朗普说：“他们不愿意给我们应得的东西，我对此很不满意。我对此很不高兴。我们走着瞧吧。”

美国高级议员们周六早些时候被告知即将发动空袭。特朗普总统与国家安全团队成员在位于佛罗里达州棕榈滩的海湖庄园密切关注着此次行动。

特朗普或许是受到了他在委内瑞拉经历的鼓舞。

前财政部官员、现任华盛顿鹰派智库“保卫民主基金会”执行主任乔纳森·沙恩泽表示，特朗普今年早些时候成功指挥美军抓捕委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗，并将其及其妻子押送至纽约市，面临联邦毒品阴谋指控，这可能也助长了总统的胆量。

特朗普上个月曾威胁要采取军事行动，但由于伊朗对示威活动进行了血腥镇压，他最终没有采取行动。这些示威活动最初是由经济不满引发的，但后来演变成一场席卷全国的反政府运动，矛头直指执政的宗教人士。

人权组织报告称，伊朗镇压行动造成数千人死亡，特朗普告诉抗议者援助即将到来，但援助并未立即到位，抗议活动也逐渐平息。

沙恩泽表示，特朗普上个月没有采取后续行动，给了他的团队更多时间在该地区集结如今规模庞大的战斗机和军舰——就像他在委内瑞拉行动之前在加勒比地区所做的那样。

特朗普希望以此作为筹码，迫使哈梅内伊让步。但这位最高领袖并未屈服。

“事情的发展是不可避免的，因为阿亚图拉根本不可能表现出任何灵活性，”沙恩泽尔说。

马达尼从华盛顿报道。