Proposed peace plan for Ukraine leaves country in delicate position

KYIV, Ukraine — An American proposal to end the war in Ukraine puts the country in a delicate diplomatic position — caught between placating its most important ally, the United States, and not capitulating to Russia, its much larger neighbor that launched a full-scale invasion nearly four years ago .

The 28-point peace plan was crafted by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration and the Kremlin, without Ukraine’s involvement. It acquiesces to many Russian demands that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has categorically rejected on dozens of occasions, including giving up large pieces of territory.

Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed the proposal late Friday, saying it “could form the basis of a final peace settlement” if the U.S. can get Ukraine and its European allies to agree.

Striking a diplomatic tone Thursday in his nightly address to the nation, Zelenskyy said his country needs a peace that ensures Russia does not invade again. He said he would work with the European Union and the Americans.

Here’s a look at key elements of the proposal and some context surrounding them.

Territorial concessions

The proposal: The plan says it will confirm Ukrainian sovereignty while also stating that Crimea and the Luhansk and Donetsk regions will be recognized as de facto Russian land, including by the United States. According to the proposal, the borders of the other two regions Russia has partially occupied and claimed as its own — Kherson and Zaporizhzhia — will be frozen along the front line.

Because Russia does not control all of Luhansk and Donetsk, the plan would, in effect, see Ukraine withdraw from areas Russia has not been able to claim in the fighting. This withdrawal zone would be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as belonging to Russia.

The proposal also says Russia would relinquish other territories it controls outside the five regions, which could include the northeast Sumy region, where Russian forces have crossed the border, and areas around the eastern Kharkiv region that border Russia, although the details are unclear.

The context: Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated that Ukraine will never recognize the occupied territories as part of Russia.

For Ukrainians, the main issue with the plan lies in its contradictions, said Oleksandr Merezhko, head of Ukraine’s foreign affairs parliamentary committee. It starts by guaranteeing Ukraine’s sovereignty but then lists several points that would inhibit or violate that sovereignty, he said.

The plan “is definitely a nonstarter, but I don’t rule out that it might be part of Trump’s game,” Merezhko said. “He starts with something absolutely absurd, ludicrous, which causes shock, and then he becomes more reasonable.”

The proposal: The plan says Ukraine must enshrine in its constitution a commitment not to join NATO and that NATO must adopt a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future. The size of the Ukrainian army would be limited to 600,000 soldiers, and NATO forces would be prohibited from being stationed in Ukraine, a measure that would curtail Kyiv’s right to choose who it cooperates with militarily.

The plan addresses Ukraine’s hopes for membership in the European Union by saying Kyiv should receive short-term preferential access to the European market while it seeks to implement reforms to reach the standards needed for EU membership, including dealing with corruption.

The plan also alludes to security guarantees from Ukraine’s Western allies but without going into detail. It is unclear how the U.S. would ensure Russia does not invade again.

The context: Zelenskyy has continually made the case that NATO membership would be the cheapest way to guarantee Ukraine’s future security. Since he took office, President Trump has made it clear that NATO membership is now off the table.

NATO’s 32 member countries said last year that Ukraine is on an “irreversible” path to membership. But some NATO members, led by the U.S., have balked at moving forward with Ukraine while the war rages and before the country’s borders are clearly demarcated.

A woman looks at family photographs in front of a residential building which was heavily damaged by a Russian strike on Ternopil, Ukraine, on Friday. (Vlad Kravchuk/AP)

The proposal: The plan states that Russia will not invade neighboring countries, and that NATO, the world’s biggest military alliance, will not expand further.

The context: NATO’s decisions are made by consensus, and there is no majority voting. The United States is by far NATO’s biggest and most influential member. Washington has traditionally driven the agenda but has stepped back under Trump. The alliance is the one international forum where the U.S. agrees to put its military might up for negotiation and can be persuaded to act differently by its allies.

Accountability for Russian actions

The proposal: The plan also asks Ukraine to relinquish any claims to hold Russia accountable for its actions in Ukraine.

The context: This would deny thousands of Ukrainians any chance to seek reparations or legal vindication of their suffering. U.N.-backed human rights experts have said Russia’s torture of Ukrainian civilians and prisoners of war is a crime against humanity.

Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko said signing the plan would be “catastrophic” for Zelenskyy.

“But the problem is, we can’t say no to Trump because there will fierce pressure from the White House,” he said.

He also said some parts of the plan, such as Ukraine declaring itself a neutral country or giving the Russian language an official status, would require changes to Ukraine’s constitution. Those steps could only be taken through parliament and not by Zelenskyy.

“Ukraine could offer to hold a referendum on these issues — that’s a compromise,” Fesenko said.

Russia’s frozen assets

The proposal: The plan calls for Moscow to agree that $100 billion of its frozen assets would be invested in rebuilding Ukraine.

The context: Russian officials have bristled at the idea of using frozen assets to help Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said last month that “if someone wants to steal our property, our assets, misappropriate them, and take advantage of the dividends from these assets, then, of course, those involved in this in one way or another will be prosecuted. They will all be held accountable.”

Associated Press Writer Dasha Litvinova in Tallin, Estonia, contributed to this report.

乌克兰基辅——美国提出的结束乌克兰战争的方案使乌克兰陷入了微妙的外交境地——一方面要安抚其最重要的盟友美国，另一方面又不能向其大得多的邻国俄罗斯屈服，而俄罗斯在近四年前发动了全面入侵。

这份包含28项条款的和平计划是由美国总统特朗普的政府和克里姆林宫制定的，乌克兰并未参与其中。该计划默许了许多俄罗斯的要求，而乌克兰总统泽连斯基曾数十次断然拒绝这些要求，其中包括放弃大片领土。

俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京周五晚些时候对该提议表示欢迎，称如果美国能够促使乌克兰及其欧洲盟友达成一致，该提议“可能成为最终和平解决方案的基础”。

泽连斯基周四晚间发表全国讲话，措辞谨慎，表示俄罗斯需要和平，以确保俄罗斯不再入侵。他还表示将与欧盟和美国合作。

以下是该提案的关键要素及其相关背景。

领土特许权

该方案声称将确认乌克兰主权，同时承认克里米亚、卢甘斯克和顿涅茨克地区为事实上的俄罗斯领土，包括美国在内。根据该方案，俄罗斯部分占领并声称拥有主权的另外两个地区——赫尔松和扎波罗热——的边界将沿前线冻结。

由于俄罗斯并未完全控制卢甘斯克和顿涅茨克，该计划实际上将导致乌克兰从俄罗斯在冲突中未能占领的地区撤军。这一撤军区将被视为中立的非军事缓冲区，国际社会承认其属于俄罗斯。

该提案还表示，俄罗斯将放弃其在五个地区之外控制的其他领土，这可能包括俄罗斯军队越过边境的东北部苏梅地区，以及与俄罗斯接壤的东部哈尔科夫地区周边地区，尽管细节尚不清楚。

背景：泽连斯基曾多次表示，乌克兰永远不会承认被占领土是俄罗斯的一部分。

乌克兰议会外交事务委员会主席奥列克桑德·梅列日科表示，对乌克兰人来说，该计划的主要问题在于其自相矛盾之处。他说，该计划一方面保障乌克兰的主权，另一方面又列举了若干会阻碍或侵犯乌克兰主权的条款。

梅列日科说：“这个计划肯定行不通，但我不能排除这可能是特朗普惯用的伎俩。他一开始会提出一些绝对荒谬可笑的方案，制造震惊，然后他的言辞就会变得更加理性。”

该提案：该计划要求乌克兰在其宪法中明确规定不加入北约，并且北约必须通过一项条款，明确未来不会接纳乌克兰加入。乌克兰军队规模将被限制在60万人以内，北约部队将被禁止驻扎在乌克兰，这一措施将限制基辅选择军事合作伙伴的权利。

该计划旨在满足乌克兰加入欧盟的愿望，规定基辅应在短期内享有进入欧洲市场的优惠待遇，同时努力实施改革，以达到加入欧盟所需的标准，包括打击腐败。

该计划还暗示乌克兰的西方盟友将提供安全保障，但并未详细说明。目前尚不清楚美国将如何确保俄罗斯不会再次入侵。

背景：泽连斯基一直坚称加入北约是保障乌克兰未来安全最经济的方式。但自特朗普总统上任以来，他已明确表示乌克兰已无可能加入北约。

北约32个成员国去年表示，乌克兰加入北约已成定局。但以美国为首的一些北约成员国，在战争仍在持续、乌克兰边界尚未明确划定的情况下，不愿推进与乌克兰的合作进程。

周五，在乌克兰捷尔诺波尔，一名女子在一栋居民楼前看着家人的照片。这栋居民楼在俄罗斯的空袭中严重受损。（Vlad Kravchuk/AP）

提案：该计划规定俄罗斯不会入侵邻国，而世界上最大的军事联盟北约也不会进一步扩张。

背景：北约的决策以协商一致的方式做出，没有多数投票制。美国是北约迄今为止最大、最具影响力的成员国。华盛顿历来主导着北约的议程，但在特朗普执政期间有所退居二线。北约是美国唯一一个愿意将其军事实力纳入谈判范围，并能被盟友说服改变行动的国际论坛。

追究俄罗斯行为的责任

提议：该计划还要求乌​​克兰放弃任何追究俄罗斯在乌克兰境内行动责任的诉求。

背景：这将剥夺成千上万乌克兰人寻求赔偿或通过法律途径伸张正义的机会。联合国支持的人权专家表示，俄罗斯对乌克兰平民和战俘的酷刑是反人类罪。

乌克兰政治分析家弗拉基米尔·费先科表示，签署该计划对泽连斯基来说将是“灾难性的”。

“但问题是，我们不能对特朗普说不，因为白宫会施加巨大压力，”他说。

他还表示，该计划的部分内容，例如乌克兰宣布自身为中立国或赋予俄语官方地位，需要修改乌克兰宪法。这些步骤只能通过议会实施，泽连斯基无权单方面决定。

费森科说：“乌克兰可以提议就这些问题举行全民公投——这是一种妥协。”

俄罗斯被冻结的资产

提议：该计划要求莫斯科同意将其冻结的 1000 亿美元资产投资于乌克兰的重建。

背景：俄罗斯官员对利用冻结资产援助乌克兰的想法感到不满。克里姆林宫发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫上个月表示：“如果有人想窃取我们的财产、资产，挪用它们并从中获利，那么，所有参与其中的人，无论以何种方式，都将被追究责任。”

美联社驻爱沙尼亚塔林记者达莎·利特维诺娃对本报道亦有贡献。