Next Indonesian president may be boon to military buildup, expert says

MANILA, Philippines — The results of Indonesia’s recent presidential election could be a boon for military modernization programs, as the current defense minister is in the lead, an expert told Defense News.

The Feb. 14 presidential election saw Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto garner nearly 60% of the votes, as of March 5. Since assuming the post in 2019, Prabowo has pushed for large-scale military modernization and increases in defense spending, despite the COVID-19 pandemic hitting Indonesia’s economy and partially reversing poverty-reduction measures, according to the World Bank.

Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the Singapore-based S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said Indonesia has consistently built up its defense since the term of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, first elected in 2004. And given Prabowo’s background, he will likely support continued military modernization efforts, Koh added.

“In some ways, one may argue that he might be more enthusiastic about it,” he said.

But given the country’s fiscal state and the scale of modernization the military requires, Prabowo might only be able to complete programs already in the works rather than start new ones, Koh added.

Prabowo was a lieutenant general and commander of the special forces known as Kopassus that were blamed for human rights abuses, including the torture of 22 activists who had opposed Suharto, the authoritarian leader whose 1998 downfall amid massive protests restored democracy in Indonesia.

Human rights groups have claimed that Prabowo was also involved in a series of human rights violations in Timor-Leste in the 1980s and 1990s, when Indonesia occupied the now-independent nation. Prabowo has denied those allegations. The alleged human rights abuses led to Prabowo being forced out of the military, and he was dishonorably discharged in 1998.

Indonesia has pivoted toward naval and air modernization efforts. In 2021, it signed a deal with Airbus realted to A330 Multi Role Tanker Transport aircraft, anti-submarine and transport helicopters, and A400M transport planes. The helicopters are already in service, and the Defense Ministry finalized orders for two A400M aircraft in January. The A330 acquisition remains under discussion, company officials told Defense News.

In 2022, the government ordered 42 Dassault Rafale fighter jets for $8.1 billion, and it most recently completed orders for the last 18 jets in January 2024.

In August 2023 , the government signed a memorandum of understanding with Boeing to acquire 24 F-15EX jets, and it also placed orders for Sikorsky S-70M Black Hawk helicopters.

The Defense Ministry also signed a contract to buy a $100 million submarine rescue vessel from the United Kingdom, and it’s reportedly in talks for two more Scorpene submarines from France’s Naval Group.

While President Joko Widodo last year approved approximately 139.3 trillion rupiahs (U.S. $8.9 billion) in defense spending for 2024 — a 20% increase from the prior budget — the government still needs more to meet its military modernization goals.

And the country appears to be falling behind. Under its Minimum Essential Force policy, the government is to complete a list of military upgrades and asset procurements the end of the presidential term, which is October 2024.

As of September 2023, the Air Force had met 51% of its goals, the Army 60% and the Navy 76%, according to Evan Laksmana, Southeast Asia military expert with the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank.

The problem, Koh said, is that while Indonesia did list specific assets and capabilities under its policy, it had not provided enough specifications for planners to further the country’s goals.

Furthermore, Indonesia’s pivot to naval and air modernization might cause an uproar in the Army, which has traditionally received the lion’s share of the budget pie. The Army has been clamoring for artillery and land systems amid Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, Koh said.

“The Air Force will have a tougher time these days and in the future when it comes to competing with funding with the Army,” he explained.

For example, Indonesia reportedly scrapped a deal to buy 12 used Dassault Mirage 2000-5 jets from Qatar to replace its retiring F-5 fleet. Public backlash pushed the government to abandon the plan days ahead of the Feb. 14 presidential election.

Indonesia is also behind on payments for a joint program with South Korea. The countries agreed to co-fund the KF-21 Boramae fighter jet program.

When asked for an update, Sangshin Park, a regional manager for KF-21 manufacturer Korea Aerospace Industries, told Defense News: “We also don’t know what’s going to happen, and we’re still waiting.”

Edna Tarigan and Achmad Ibrahim with The Associated Press contributed to this story.

Leilani Chavez is an Asia correspondent for Defense News. Her reporting expertise is in East Asian politics, development projects, environmental issues and security.

菲律宾马尼拉——一位专家告诉《防务新闻》，印尼最近的总统选举结果可能对军事现代化计划有利，因为现任国防部长担任领导职务。

截至3月5日，在2月14日举行的总统选举中，国防部长普拉博沃·苏比安托获得了近60%的选票。据世界银行称，自2019年上任以来，普拉博沃一直致力于推动大规模军事现代化和增加国防开支，尽管新冠疫情重创了印尼经济，并在一定程度上逆转了减贫措施。

新加坡拉惹勒南国际关系学院高级研究员柯林·科赫表示，自苏西洛·班邦·尤多约诺总统2004年首次当选以来，印尼一直在持续加强国防建设。科赫补充说，鉴于普拉博沃的背景，他很可能会支持继续推进军事现代化。

“从某种意义上说，有人可能会认为他对此更有热情，”他说。

科赫补充说，鉴于该国的财政状况和军队现代化所需的规模，普拉博沃可能只能完成已经在进行中的项目，而无法启动新的项目。

普拉博沃是一名中将，也是特种部队 Kopassus 的指挥官。该部队被指控犯有侵犯人权的罪行，包括酷刑折磨 22 名反对苏哈托的活动人士。苏哈托是印尼的独裁领导人，他在 1998 年因大规模抗议活动而下台，恢复了印尼的民主。

人权组织声称，普拉博沃在上世纪八九十年代印尼占领东帝汶期间，也参与了一系列侵犯人权的行为。东帝汶现已独立。普拉博沃否认了这些指控。据称的侵犯人权行为导致普拉博沃被迫退役，并于1998年被开除军籍。

印尼已将重心转向海军和空军现代化建设。2021年，印尼与空客公司签署了一项协议，采购A330多用途加油运输机、反潜和运输直升机以及A400M运输机。这些直升机已投入使用，国防部也于今年1月最终敲定了两架A400M运输机的订单。据《防务新闻》报道，A330的采购仍在商讨中。

2022 年，美国政府订购了 42 架达索阵风战斗机，价值 81 亿美元，最近一次订购是在 2024 年 1 月，共订购了最后 18 架战斗机。

2023 年 8 月，政府与波音公司签署了一份谅解备忘录，采购 24 架 F-15EX 战斗机，并订购了西科斯基 S-70M 黑鹰直升机。

国防部还签署了一份价值 1 亿美元的合同，从英国购买一艘潜艇救援船，据报道，国防部正在与法国海军集团洽谈购买另外两艘鲉鱼级潜艇。

尽管佐科·维多多总统去年批准了 2024 年约 139.3 万亿印尼盾（约合 89 亿美元）的国防开支，比上一年的预算增加了 20%，但政府仍需要更多资金来实现其军事现代化目标。

而该国似乎正在落后。根据其“最低必要兵力”政策，政府应在总统任期结束前（即2024年10月）完成一系列军事升级和资产采购。

据国际战略研究所智库东南亚军事专家埃文·拉克什马纳称，截至 2023 年 9 月，空军已完成其目标的 51%，陆军完成了 60%，海军完成了 76%。

Koh表示，问题在于，虽然印尼在其政策中列出了具体的资产和能力，但它没有为规划者提供足够的具体说明，以推进该国的目标。

此外，科赫表示，印尼转向海军和空军现代化建设的举措可能会在陆军内部引起强烈不满，因为陆军历来占据预算的大头。在俄罗斯持续入侵乌克兰的情况下，陆军一直在呼吁采购火炮和陆地作战系统。

他解释说：“如今，空军在与陆军争夺资金方面将面临更大的挑战，未来也将如此。”

例如，据报道，印尼取消了从卡塔尔购买12架二手达索幻影2000-5战斗机以替换其即将退役的F-5机队的交易。公众的强烈反对迫使印尼政府在2月14日总统大选前几天放弃了该计划。

印尼在与韩国的联合项目中也拖欠款项。两国曾同意共同出资建设KF-21“波拉梅”战斗机项目。

当被问及最新进展时，KF-21 制造商韩国航空航天工业公司区域经理朴相信告诉《防务新闻》：“我们也不知道将会发生什么，我们仍在等待。”

美联社的埃德娜·塔里根和艾哈迈德·易卜拉欣对本文亦有贡献。

莱拉尼·查韦斯是《防务新闻》的亚洲记者。她的报道专长是东亚政治、发展项目、环境问题和安全。