Why do the US midterms matter for Trump and Congress?

Republicans and Democrats jockey for control of Congress, which will set course for Trump’s final two years in office.

A man holds a 'Vote Blue' during a Democratic rally in The Villages, Florida, on October 17 [Maria Alejandra Cardona/Reuters]

The United States midterms on November 3 are dominating national and international headlines.

The stakes of the election are high. The midterm race will determine which party controls the US Congress, and in turn, shape the direction of Trump’s final two years in office. It will also decide key state and local positions.

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But notching big wins in the midterm election may not be enough to shake up the balance of power in Washington, DC.

To understand the implications of this year’s midterm election and what may come next, Al Jazeera has put together this simple primer.

Here’s why the US midterms matter at the federal level.

Battle for the US House of Representatives and US Senate

Midterm elections fall at the halfway point of a president’s term, meaning the executive office will not be on the ballot.

Front and centre will be the battle for control of Congress. Two chambers make up the US legislature: the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Because members of the House serve two-year terms, all 435 seats in the chamber are up for election on November 3. However, most races are already considered formalities, with a clear frontrunner.

That leaves only a handful of races — about 50 — to decide who will win the House majority.

While subject to change, nearly every reputable election prognosticator has predicted that Democrats will win control of the House, some by as many as 15 seats.

The Democrats have a slimmer chance of winning a majority in the Senate, however.

That chamber has only 100 seats. But because senators have staggered six-year terms, only 35 seats are up for election. Only about a dozen of those races are considered competitive.

Still, Democrats have seen their odds of seizing the Senate increase, as the number of competitive races has grown.

Left-wing candidates have made inroads in deep-red states like Texas and Kansas, creating more opportunities for the Democratic Party to claim a Senate majority this election cycle.

Because the US vice president breaks ties in the Senate, Democrats would need 51 seats to control the chamber.

What does party control mean?

Congress passes laws and approves federal budgets. But even if a party secures a majority in both chambers of Congress, it may not be enough to control the country’s legislative agenda.

Laws can pass by a simple majority in the House, but they typically need a supermajority of 60 votes in the Senate to overcome a process known as the filibuster . That process can allow a minority group to stall legislation indefinitely, barring a supermajority.

Therefore, unless a party wins more than 60 seats in the Senate, most legislation will still require at least some level of bipartisan support to pass.

Even if legislation passes both chambers, the president can veto any bill that comes across his desk. Overriding a presidential veto requires a two-thirds supermajority in both the House and the Senate.

Achieving the broad bipartisan support needed to overcome a presidential veto is exceedingly rare.

The last time it happened was in January 2021, during Trump’s first term. At the time, the US president had lost the 2020 election, and he saw his support from Republican lawmakers dissipate when he attempted to veto a defence spending bill.

Still, there are instances when bipartisan support overcomes presidential objections. A bill to increase the housing supply passed both the House and Senate with veto-proof majorities earlier this year, despite Trump’s stated opposition .

So what happens if Republicans maintain control of Congress?

Republicans currently hold two majorities in Congress, with 53 seats in the Senate and 218 in the House.

With Trump in the White House, that means the party has held a so-called government “ trifecta ” over the last two years, with three levers of power under its command.

The Republican majorities in Congress have helped Trump pass some of his signature legislation, including surging funding to Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and cleaving back some forms of publicly funded healthcare as part of a sweeping 2025 tax bill.

But Republicans’ numbers have not been enough to pass Trump’s entire legislative wishlist. Notably, he has been unable to pass his signature federal voter identification law, dubbed the “ SAVE America Act “, amid Democratic opposition.

There have also been a handful of issues where Republicans have defied Trump, particularly on tariffs . A few Republicans have also voted to assert congressional authority over the US-Israel war with Iran.

If the Republican Party maintains control of both the House and Senate in November’s race, its majorities could continue to help Trump’s legislative agenda. But there is an important caveat.

Lawmakers will be keeping an anxious eye on voter sentiment as the 2028 elections approach. With Trump unable to seek a third term, some Republicans may have more appetite to publicly oppose the lame-duck president during the next two years, in order to boost their election prospects.

If Republicans maintain control of the Senate but lose the House, they would still be able to help Trump confirm his nominees for key federal roles.

Hundreds of federal positions require approval from a simple majority in the Senate, including roles in the judiciary, including Supreme Court justices.

What if Democrats take control?

The party in control of Congress, with a few exceptions, can determine what legislation is brought to a vote and when.

But for Democrats, the most significant outcome of winning a majority in one or both chambers would be the ability to block Trump from legislating his agenda over the next two years.

That said, analysts expect a Democrat-led Congress to take a largely defensive stance, batting down Trump’s proposals.

Going on offence — and passing their own legislative agenda — will be far more difficult, even if the party wins a majority in both the House and Senate. Democrat-led laws would still face Trump’s veto power.

However, holding majorities would help Democratic members slip policy priorities into “need-to-pass” funding legislation. The spectre of a government shutdown could pressure Republicans to pass budget bills, even if they do not agree on all the terms.

Democrats can also bring topics to a vote to force congressional Republicans to oppose popular policies or simply take a public stance on divisive issues.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has laid out a 100-day plan for if Democrats take control of the chamber. Topping the agenda are votes on Trump-backed healthcare funding cuts, asserting congressional authority over the US-Israel war with Iran and rolling back Trump’s tariff programme.

Those issues have split the Republican base and would pose thorny dilemmas for lawmakers already posturing for the 2028 vote.

Will Democrats impeach Trump?

As Trump rallies on behalf of Republicans in the run-up to November’s vote, he has repeatedly expressed concern that Democratic control of Congress could lead to one eventuality: his third impeachment.

Trump was already impeached twice during his first term. “If we don’t win, they’ll end up impeaching me,” he told a rally in Durant, Oklahoma, in early October.

If Democrats do take control of the House or the Senate, they will take over leadership of dozens of committees. Through those committees, they can launch investigations — with subpoena power — into an array of subjects.

Some Democrats have already said probing allegations of Trump family corruption will be a top priority.

House lawmakers can also introduce articles of impeachment and ultimately vote to impeach federal officials, including the president, with a simple majority.

However, the Senate would need to vote to convict the official with a two-thirds majority before they can be removed from office.

Perhaps more significantly, if Democrats win control of the Senate, they would be able to block the confirmation of Trump appointees in key roles during his final two years in office.

So what will change on the war with Iran and the economy?

A Democratic surge is likely to signal discontent with the Trump administration, but there will not be a swift, tangible change on many of the issues that have defined the election season.

For example, if Democrats secure both majorities in Congress, they could assert their leverage to seek to address affordability issues, drilling into topics like housing, healthcare and the cost of living.

But they can do little to immediately change the myriad factors that led to the high price of petrol and groceries. Any gains would most likely be hard-fought, slow-coming and incremental.

The same is true for the US-Israel war with Iran.

Under the US Constitution, only Congress can declare war, something it has not done since World War II. Presidents have long used various legal arguments to circumvent that constitutional requirement.

Most recently, the Trump administration argued that the US-Israel war with Iran did not require authorisation from Congress because the president has a duty to protect the American people.

Trump has also argued that the war has started and stopped several times, each time renewing the 60-day window he has to receive Congress’s authorisation.

To reassert Congress’s authority to declare war, Democrats could pass a legally binding “war powers resolution” to rein in Trump, but they would need two-thirds support to overcome the presidential veto.

Even if a resolution were able to overcome the veto, experts say it is unclear how the US judiciary would respond if Trump were to flout Congress’s will.

Still, Democrats could use control of Congress to attempt to stifle any funding for the war.

共和党和民主党争夺国会的控制权，这将决定特朗普最后两年的执政方向。

10月17日，在佛罗里达州维利奇斯举行的民主党集会上，一名男子举着“投蓝票”的标语。[Maria Alejandra Cardona/路透社]

11月3日举行的美国中期选举占据了国内外的新闻头条。

这次选举至关重要。中期选举将决定哪个党派控制美国国会，进而影响特朗普最后两年的执政方向。它还将决定关键的州和地方职位。

特朗普因豁免俄罗斯制裁而面临两党强烈反对（共3条，第1条）

列表 2/3：MAGA 内部没有分裂

中期选举前夕，美国各地爆发了三起“反对国王”抗议活动（列表3/3）。

但是，即便在中期选举中取得重大胜利，也可能不足以撼动华盛顿特区的权力平衡。

为了解今年中期选举的影响以及接下来可能发生的情况，半岛电视台整理了这份简单的入门指南。

这就是美国中期选举在联邦层面如此重要的原因。

美国众议院和参议院的争夺战

中期选举是在总统任期过半时举行的，这意味着行政职位不会出现在选票上。

争夺国会控制权的斗争将是重中之重。美国立法机构由两院组成：众议院和参议院。

由于众议院议员任期两年，因此众议院全部 435 个席位将于 11 月 3 日进行选举。然而，大多数选举已被视为形式上的，已有明显的领先者。

这样一来，就只剩下少数几场选举——大约 50 场——来决定谁将赢得众议院多数席位。

虽然结果可能会有所变化，但几乎所有信誉良好的选举预测专家都预测民主党将赢得众议院的控制权，有的甚至预测民主党将赢得多达 15 个席位。

然而，民主党赢得参议院多数席位的机会则较为渺茫。

该议院只有100个席位。但由于参议员任期六年，错开轮换，因此只有35个席位需要改选。而其中只有大约十几场选举被认为是竞争激烈的。

不过，随着竞争激烈的选区数量增加，民主党人夺取参议院控制权的几率也随之增加。

左翼候选人在德克萨斯州和堪萨斯州等深红州取得了进展，为民主党在本届选举周期中赢得参议院多数席位创造了更多机会。

由于美国副总统在参议院拥有打破僵局的权力，民主党需要51个席位才能控制参议院。

政党控制意味着什么？

国会通过法律并批准联邦预算。但即使一个政党在国会两院都获得了多数席位，也未必足以掌控国家的立法议程。

法案在众议院只需简单多数即可通过，但在参议院通常需要60票的绝对多数才能通过，以克服被称为“阻挠议事”的程序。该程序允许少数派无限期地拖延立法，直至获得绝对多数票。

因此，除非某个政党在参议院赢得 60 多个席位，否则大多数立法仍需至少一定程度的两党支持才能通过。

即使法案在参众两院均获通过，总统仍可否决任何提交到他办公桌上的法案。推翻总统否决需要参众两院均获得三分之二的绝对多数票。

要获得推翻总统否决所需的广泛两党支持，这种情况极其罕见。

上一次发生这种情况是在2021年1月，也就是特朗普的第一任期内。当时，这位美国总统在2020年大选中落败，当他试图否决一项国防开支法案时，他失去了共和党议员的支持。

不过，有时两党支持也能战胜总统的反对。今年早些时候，一项旨在增加住房供应的法案在众议院和参议院均以足以推翻总统否决的多数票获得通过，尽管特朗普曾公开表示反对。

如果共和党继续掌控国会，会发生什么？

共和党目前在国会中占据两席多数，参议院有 53 个席位，众议院有 218 个席位。

随着特朗普入主白宫，这意味着在过去两年里，共和党一直掌控着所谓的政府“三权鼎立”局面，掌握着三个权力杠杆。

国会中的共和党多数派帮助特朗普通过了他的一些标志性立法，包括大幅增加对移民和海关执法局 (ICE) 的拨款，以及作为 2025 年全面税收法案的一部分削减一些形式的公共资助医疗保健。

但共和党的席位不足以让特朗普的所有立法愿望全部实现。值得注意的是，由于民主党的反对，他未能通过其标志性的联邦选民身份识别法案，即所谓的“拯救美国法案”。

在一些问题上，共和党人也曾与特朗普唱反调，尤其是在关税问题上。此外，还有一些共和党人投票支持国会行使对美以伊战争的管辖权。

如果共和党在11月的选举中继续掌控众议院和参议院，其多数席位可能会继续帮助特朗普推进立法议程。但这里有一个重要的前提条件。

随着2028年大选临近，立法者们将密切关注选民的情绪。由于特朗普无法寻求第三个任期，一些共和党人可能会更积极地在未来两年公开反对这位即将卸任的总统，以提升自身的选举前景。

如果共和党保住参议院的控制权但失去众议院，他们仍然能够帮助特朗普确认其对联邦政府关键职位的提名人选。

数百个联邦职位需要参议院简单多数票批准，其中包括司法部门的职位，例如最高法院大法官。

如果民主党人掌权怎么办？

除少数例外情况外，控制国会的政党可以决定哪些法案提交表决以及何时表决。

但对于民主党人来说，赢得参众两院多数席位的最重要结果，将是能够在未来两年内阻止特朗普推行其立法议程。

尽管如此，分析人士预计，民主党控制的国会将采取较为保守的立场，驳回特朗普的提案。

即使民主党在众议院和参议院都赢得多数席位，发起攻势并推行自己的立法议程也将更加困难。民主党主导的法案仍然会面临特朗普的否决权。

然而，掌握多数席位将有助于民主党议员将政策优先事项悄悄纳入“必须通过”的拨款法案中。政府停摆的阴影可能会迫使共和党人通过预算案，即便他们并非在所有条款上都达成一致。

民主党人还可以将某些议题提交投票表决，迫使国会共和党人反对受欢迎的政策，或者就一些具有争议性的问题公开表明立场。

众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯制定了一项百日计划，以应对民主党掌控众议院的情况。该计划的首要议程包括：就特朗普支持的医改削减方案进行投票；维护国会在美以对伊战争中的权力；以及撤销特朗普的关税计划。

这些问题已经分裂了共和党的基本盘，并将给那些已经在为 2028 年大选做准备的立法者们带来棘手的难题。

民主党人会弹劾特朗普吗？

在11月投票前夕，特朗普为共和党人奔走呼吁，他一再表示担忧，认为民主党控制国会可能会导致一种结果：他第三次被弹劾。

特朗普在第一任期内就已经被弹劾过两次。10月初，他在俄克拉荷马州杜兰特的一次集会上说：“如果我们输了，他们最终会弹劾我。”

如果民主党人掌控众议院或参议院，他们将接管数十个委员会的领导权。通过这些委员会，他们可以对一系列事项展开调查——并拥有传唤权。

一些民主党人已经表示，调查有关特朗普家族腐败的指控将是首要任务。

众议院议员还可以提出弹劾条款，并最终以简单多数票投票弹劾包括总统在内的联邦官员。

但是，要将该官员免职，参议院需要以三分之二的多数票投票定罪。

更重要的是，如果民主党人赢得参议院的控制权，他们将能够在特朗普执政的最后两年里阻止对其关键职位的人选进行确认。

那么，伊朗战争和经济方面会发生哪些变化？

民主党人的支持率飙升可能表明民众对特朗普政府不满，但许多定义本次选举季的问题不会迅速发生实质性改变。

例如，如果民主党在国会两院都获得多数席位，他们就可以利用自身的影响力来解决住房负担能力问题，深入研究住房、医疗保健和生活成本等议题。

但他们几乎无力立即改变导致汽油和食品价格高企的诸多因素。任何进展都极有可能来之不易、缓慢渐进。

美国与以色列和伊朗之间的战争也是如此。

根据美国宪法，只有国会才能宣战，而自二战以来，国会从未行使过这项权力。长期以来，历任总统都利用各种法律论据来规避这一宪法规定。

最近，特朗普政府辩称，美国与以色列对伊朗发动的战争不需要国会授权，因为总统有责任保护美国人民。

特朗普还辩称，这场战争已经多次开始和停止，每次都延长了他获得国会授权的 60 天期限。

为了重申国会宣战的权力，民主党人可以通过一项具有法律约束力的“战争权力决议”来约束特朗普，但他们需要三分之二的支持才能推翻总统的否决。

即使一项决议能够推翻总统的否决，专家表示，如果特朗普公然藐视国会的意愿，美国司法部门将如何应对，目前尚不清楚。

不过，民主党人可能会利用对国会的控制权，试图阻止任何用于战争的资金。