Now the Head Of the USAF Is Jumping On the F-22 Production Re-Start Bandwagon

Updated Jul 2, 2020 3:19 PM EDT

Some of us never got over Washington’s abysmal decision to shutter the F-22 production line early , a move that has resulted in an unfairly small Raptor force of just 125 combat-coded jets at any given time. In the past year or so, higher-ups in the USAF’s power structure have conceded that their predecessors blew it by deciding not to build more of the world’s only truly operational fifth-generation fighter . Now, Congress is calling to look into restarting the F-22 production line , and even the USAF’s outgoing head honcho is jumping on the F-22 production re-start bandwagon.

General Mark Welsh stated the following at an Air Force Association event today:

“I don’t think it’s a wild idea, I mean the success of the F-22 and the capability of the airplane and the crews that fly it are pretty exceptional. I think it’s proven that the airplane is exactly what everybody hoped it would be… We’re using it in new and different ways and it’s been spectacularly successful and its potential is really, really remarkable. And so going back and looking and certainly raising the idea: Well, could you build more? It’s not a crazy idea.”

Within the Pentagon, the subject of building more Raptors has been taboo for the better part of a decade, after the Defense Department circled the wagons around the F-35 program in the late 2000s. Pursuing anything that could compete with the F-35’s existence was seen as heresy.

The conversation around ending F-22 production was an especially prominent pain-point between Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, Air Force Chief of Staff Michael Mosley and Air Force Secretary Michael Wayne. Mosley and Wayne were eventually ousted at least partially because they opposed Gates’s push to end production of the Raptor at just 187 production examples, a move tacity supported by the Bush Adminstration and fully endorsed by the Obama Administration.

Now, close to a decade later, it is clear this decision was a monumental mistake, as the F-35 program continues to flounder and its air-to-air combat deficiencies become clearer . Meanwhile, the now combat-proven F-22 has risen to prominence as one of America’s most valued and high-demand foreign policy tools .

Even with the momentum building in Washington to hatch new Raptors, and as the USAF completes a congressionally mandated study into how much a restart of the F-22 line would cost, don’t get your hopes up. The Air Force is already scrambling for budget to pay for the fighter fleet it plans for the future , with funding diving into the red as early as 2021. More F-22s would come at the expense of outrageously pricey F-35 program.

Even if the USAF is changing its tune when it comes to procuring more F-22s, it would likely mean a drop in the USAF’s F-35A total buy of 1,763 jets. The manufacturer of both aircraft, Lockheed Martin, says that the move would lead to higher F-35 unit costs and could send the program into a death spiral. (And no, Lockheed doesn’t win either way just because they build both jets.)

The F-35 represents the largest defense acquisition in history, one that will provide massive amounts of cash flow well into the latter half of the 21st century. By comparison, producing a couple hundred more F-22s is a drop in the revenue, even if a highly upgraded version of the jet was pursued.

The “ built in 46 states ” F-35 isn’t the only program that stands in the way of an F-22 production line re-start. Other big-ticket priorities like the B-21 bomber stand in its way . Even a pipe-dream sixth-generation fighter is on the USAF’s fiscally unsustainable wishlist, which is an even harder sell when you are pumping out upgraded F-22s.

It is also notable that Welsh is making this statement as he exits his jobs as the chief of the USAF. What really matters is what his successor, General David Goldfein, thinks. So far he is saying the right things about other key USAF weapon systems, like the highly relevant A-10, a plane Goldfein sees as highly valuable in the fight against ISIS, stating the following to the Military Times :

“When we made decisions on retiring the A-10, we made those decisions prior to ISIL. We were not in Iraq, we were coming out of Afghanistan to a large extent. We didn’t have a resurgent Russia at the time frame that we were talking about retiring the A-10, and so when the assumptions change and they don’t pan out, we’ve got to be agile enough to adjust.”

Maybe Goldfein, who has time in F-16s, F-117s and a smattering of other aircraft including unmanned systems, will put this more “agile” mindset to work by pushing for more F-22s. But still , even for a guy that was shot down behind enemy lines over Serbia , it may be too ominous a battle to fight.

Contact the author at tyler@thedrive.com .

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更新于美国东部时间2020年7月2日下午3:19

我们当中有些人始终无法释怀华盛顿提前关闭F-22生产线的糟糕决定，这一举动导致F-22“猛禽”战斗机部队规模极小，任何时候都只有125架具备作战能力的战机。在过去一年左右的时间里，美国空军高层承认，他们的前任决定不再生产世界上唯一真正具备作战能力的第五代战斗机是一个错误。现在，国会呼吁研究重启F-22生产线的可能性，甚至连即将卸任的空军最高领导人也加入了重启F-22生产的行列。

马克·韦尔什将军今天在空军协会的一次活动上发表了以下讲话：

“我不认为这是个异想天开的想法。F-22的成功、飞机的性能以及驾驶它的机组人员都非常出色。我认为它已经证明了自己完全符合所有人的期望……我们正在以全新的方式使用它，而且取得了巨大的成功，它的潜力确实非常惊人。所以，回顾过去，提出‘我们能否制造更多？’的想法也并非异想天开。”

在五角大楼内部，建造更多猛禽战机的话题在过去近十年里一直是个禁忌话题，因为在2000年代末期，国防部对F-35项目严加管控。任何可能与F-35竞争的项目都被视为异端邪说。

围绕停止F-22生产问题的讨论，是国防部长罗伯特·盖茨、空军参谋长迈克尔·莫斯利和空军部长迈克尔·韦恩之间一个尤为突出的痛点。莫斯利和韦恩最终被解职，至少部分原因是他们反对盖茨提出的将猛禽战斗机的产量限制在187架的计划，而这一举措得到了布什政府的初步支持，并得到了奥巴马政府的全力认可。

如今，近十年过去了，很明显，当初的决定是一个巨大的错误，F-35项目持续举步维艰，其空战能力的缺陷也日益凸显。与此同时，久经沙场考验的F-22战机已崛起为美国最受重视、需求量最大的外交政策工具之一。

即便华盛顿方面正积极推进新一代猛禽战斗机的研发，且美国空军也已完成国会授权的关于重启F-22生产线成本的研究，也不要抱太大希望。空军目前正为未来计划的战斗机机队筹集预算，预计到2021年，资金就会出现赤字。增加F-22的采购将以牺牲耗资巨大的F-35项目为代价。

即使美国空军在采购更多F-22战机的问题上改变了立场，这很可能意味着美国空军F-35A战机的总采购量（1763架）将会下降。这两款战机的制造商洛克希德·马丁公司表示，此举将导致F-35单价上涨，并可能使该项目陷入恶性循环。（而且，洛克希德·马丁公司并非因为同时生产这两款战机就一定能从中获利。）

F-35是历史上规模最大的国防采购项目，它将在21世纪后半叶持续带来巨额现金流。相比之下，即使采用高度升级的F-22改进型，再生产几百架F-22的收入也会大幅下降。

“46个州制造”的F-35并非唯一阻碍F-22生产线重启的项目。其他一些耗资巨大的优先事项，例如B-21轰炸机，也同样存在。甚至连美国空军那份财政上难以承受的第六代战斗机愿望清单，也赫然在列，而当你还在源源不断地生产升级版F-22时，这无疑更难被接受。

值得注意的是，威尔士发表这番言论之际，正值他即将卸任美国空军司令一职。真正重要的是他的继任者戴维·戈德芬将军的看法。到目前为止，戈德芬对其他一些关键的美国空军武器系统，例如至关重要的A-10攻击机，都发表了积极的看法。戈德芬认为A-10在打击ISIS的战斗中具有极高的价值，他曾对《军事时报》表示：

“我们决定让A-10退役时，是在‘伊斯兰国’出现之前做出的决定。当时我们还没有进军伊拉克，而且很大程度上是从阿富汗撤军。在我们讨论让A-10退役的时候，俄罗斯还没有重新崛起。所以，当假设发生变化，而实际情况并非如此时，我们必须足够灵活地做出调整。”

或许曾驾驶过F-16、F-117以及包括无人系统在内的其他一些飞机的戈德芬，会运用这种更加“灵活”的思维方式，力促采购更多F-22战机。但即便对于一位曾在塞尔维亚上空被击落于敌后的飞行员来说，这场战斗的危险性也可能让他望而却步。

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