Dubai Air Show becomes stage for a Middle East on edge

MILAN — The Dubai Air Show, one of the world’s largest aircraft-themed expos, is set to begin next week against the backdrop of an increasingly tense region, leading at least one Israeli defense organization to pull away from the show.

The biannual event, which will gather 1,400 commercial and military exhibitors from 95 countries, will run Nov. 13-17 at the Al Maktoum International Airport in Dubai.

Israel was expected to have a dedicated pavilion, with some of the country’s biggest defense contractors listed in the initial program and floor plan. Elbit Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries said they still plan to attend. Rafael did not respond to a request for comment on their plans.

On the other hand, the country’s International Defense Cooperation Directorate, SIBAT, which spearheads arms transfers on behalf of the Israeli Ministry of Defense, has called off its participation.

“In light of the war that began on Oct. 7, SIBAT has decided not to inaugurate a national pavilion at global defense exhibitions until further notice,” the media and public affairs bureau of the Israeli MoD told Defense News in an email.

This situation is markedly different from 2021, which was the first year that Israel attended the Dubai Air Show following the normalization of ties with the United Arab Emirates, the first Gulf nation to do so.

At the time, a statement released by IAI’s chief executive officer Boaz Levy said that “a year after the signing of the Abraham Accords, we are thrilled to participate in the show and to broaden cooperation with business partners in the Gulf region.”

Two years on, the regional geo-political landscape has turned gloomy. Following the terrorist attacks carried out by Hamas against Israel last month, Qatar and Kuwait’s foreign ministries issued statements declaring that they held Israel as the sole responsible party.

The UAE government described the Oct. 7 attacks carried out against Israel as a “serious and grave escalation,” and top officials have warned of the threat of a regional spillover from the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.

“As we continue working to stop this war we cannot ignore the wider context and necessity to turn down the regional temperature that is approaching a boiling point,” Noura Al Kaabi, minister of state for foreign affairs, said at a policy conference in Abu Dhabi on Nov 3, according to Reuters.

Some experts view the growing instability that is grasping the region as likely to impact defense exports.

“In the short run, many Arab countries will want to distance themselves and minimize their ties to Israel, particularly the Israeli military and defense industry, if only to limit the domestic political fallout of the war,” Raphael Cohen, director of strategy and doctrine program at RAND Corp said.

As for the longer term, Cohen says the consequences are more uncertain. Still, he believes many Arab nations’ basic security interests have not changed. “They still view Iran as a mortal threat, so they still need weapons.”

Buying arms from Russia or China risks blowback from the United States and other Western governments, he added, not to mention that Moscow probably has none to spare anyway as Russian forces continue to pursue the invasion of Ukraine.

Awad Mustafa in Dubai contributed to this report.

Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo was a Europe correspondent for Defense News. She covers a wide range of topics related to military procurement and international security, and specializes in reporting on the aviation sector. She is based in Milan, Italy.

米兰——作为全球规模最大的航空主题展览会之一，迪拜航展将于下周开幕，但此时该地区局势日益紧张，导致至少一家以色列国防组织退出了此次航展。

这项两年一度的盛会将于 11 月 13 日至 17 日在迪拜阿勒马克图姆国际机场举行，届时将有来自 95 个国家的 1400 家商业和军事参展商参展。

以色列原本预计会设立一个专属展馆，最初的方案和平面图上列出了该国一些最大的国防承包商。埃尔比特系统公司和以色列航空航天工业公司表示，他们仍计划参展。拉斐尔公司没有回应置评请求。

另一方面，代表以色列国防部牵头进行武器转让的以色列国际防务合作局（SIBAT）已取消了参与此次行动。

“鉴于10月7日爆发的战争，以色列国防部媒体和公共事务局决定，在另行通知之前，不会在全球防务展览会上设立国家展馆，”以色列国防部在一封电子邮件中告诉《防务新闻》。

这种情况与 2021 年截然不同，2021 年是以色列与阿拉伯联合酋长国关系正常化后首次参加迪拜航展，以色列也是第一个与阿联酋关系正常化的海湾国家。

当时，以色列航空工业公司 (IAI) 首席执行官博阿兹·莱维发表声明称：“在《亚伯拉罕协议》签署一年后，我们很高兴能够参加此次展会，并扩大与海湾地区商业伙伴的合作。”

两年过去了，地区地缘政治格局变得黯淡。继哈马斯上个月对以色列发动恐怖袭击后，卡塔尔和科威特外交部发表声明，宣称以色列是唯一的责任方。

阿联酋政府将 10 月 7 日针对以色列的袭击描述为“严重升级”，高级官员警告称，以色列与哈马斯在加沙的战争有可能蔓延至整个地区。

据路透社报道，外交国务部长努拉·卡比 (Noura Al Kaabi) 11 月 3 日在阿布扎比举行的一次政策会议上表示：“在我们继续努力制止这场战争的同时，我们不能忽视更广泛的背景，也不能忽视降低地区紧张局势的必要性，因为该地区的紧张局势已经接近沸点。”

一些专家认为，该地区日益加剧的不稳定局势可能会影响国防出口。

兰德公司战略与理论项目主任拉斐尔·科恩表示：“短期内，许多阿拉伯国家会希望与以色列保持距离，并尽量减少与以色列的联系，特别是与以色列军方和国防工业的联系，哪怕仅仅是为了限制战争在国内造成的政治影响。”

至于长远来看，科恩表示后果更加难以预料。但他认为，许多阿拉伯国家的基本安全利益并未改变。“他们仍然视伊朗为致命威胁，所以他们仍然需要武器。”

他补充说，从俄罗斯或中国购买武器可能会遭到美国和其他西方国家的报复，更何况，由于俄罗斯军队仍在继续入侵乌克兰，莫斯科可能根本没有多余的武器。

迪拜的阿瓦德·穆斯塔法对本报道亦有贡献。

伊丽莎白·戈斯林-马洛曾任《防务新闻》欧洲通讯员。她的报道涵盖军事采购和国际安全等广泛领域，尤其擅长航空领域的报道。她常驻意大利米兰。