German military raises sabotage threat level amid warning of Russian attacks: report

VIENNA — Germany’s military, the Bundeswehr, has raised its assessment of the Russian sabotage threat to its second-highest level, warning that German forces themselves could face attacks at home, according to a classified internal analysis reported by public broadcaster WDR and newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung on Oct. 21.

The report’s findings point to a potentially broader threat than German military security specialists had previously anticipated. Their concerns had centered on installations training Ukrainian troops, alongside naval bases and shipyards. The new assessment says authorities can no longer geographically confine specific sites deemed vulnerable, warning instead of an all-around deterioration in the security situation, with concrete actions possible in the near term.

The reassessment follows the discovery of an apparently crashed drone near Wunstorf air base in northern Germany in September. Investigators found a can containing explosives a few meters away, according to the report. They suspect the aircraft may have targeted military planes rather than civilian cargo aircraft.

WDR and Süddeutsche Zeitung reported that investigators believe the Wunstorf drone had lain near the base for about two years, citing technical analysis by Germany’s Federal Criminal Police Office. Its construction resembled an explosives-equipped drone used in a failed attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport in early August, the outlets reported, though it would have significantly predated the Leipzig incident.

The military analysis draws a distinction between the two incidents: While Leipzig presented an indirect threat to German forces, targeting Ukrainian aircraft instead, Wunstorf likely involved the Bundeswehr itself as the target. The assessment describes Russia as almost certainly possessing the capability, and very likely an increased motivation, to act against German forces and facilities, as well as Ukrainian partners in Germany.

It also concludes that Russia’s use of drones as weapons crossed a previously anticipated “red line” involving an intention to cause physical damage or potentially lethal effects.

The German government has publicly attributed the Leipzig drone attack to Russia following a month-long investigation.

The analysis links the suspected campaign to efforts to weaken political and public support for Ukraine in Germany. At the operational level, it assesses that Moscow seeks to disrupt equipment deliveries and training, undermining Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.

An Operational Command spokesperson told WDR that the Bundeswehr currently considers the sabotage risk “substantial” because of the increased threat. This places it at the second-highest level of the military’s risk assessment scale, SZ reported.

The military is strengthening protective measures at its installations to safeguard personnel and facilities, the spokesperson said.

The warning follows suspicious drone flights over sites associated with Germany’s Arrow 3 missile-defense system and Patriot maintenance facilities. German security authorities suspect Russian involvement in those and other surveillance incidents, WDR reported.

Russia has consistently denied involvement in sabotage and hybrid attacks, and has blamed Germany for staging incidents to whip up anti-Russian sentiment. Moscow’s ambassador to Berlin previously dismissed Germany’s allegations over Leipzig as “absurd” and described the incident as a “provocation.”

Linus Höller is Defense News' Europe correspondent and OSINT investigator. He reports on the arms deals, sanctions, and geopolitics shaping Europe and the world. He holds master’s degrees in WMD nonproliferation, terrorism studies, and international relations, and works in four languages: English, German, Russian, and Spanish.

维也纳——据德国公共广播公司 WDR 和《南德意志报》10 月 21 日报道，德国联邦国防军已将俄罗斯破坏威胁的评估提升至第二高级别，并警告称德国军队自身也可能在国内面临袭击。

该报告的调查结果显示，潜在的威胁范围可能比德国军事安全专家此前预想的更为广泛。他们此前的担忧主要集中在训练乌克兰军队的设施，以及海军基地和造船厂。新的评估指出，当局已无法再将某些被认为易受攻击的特定地点局限于特定区域，而是警告称安全形势正在全面恶化，并且短期内可能采取具体行动。

此次重新评估源于9月份在德国北部温斯托夫空军基地附近发现的一架疑似坠毁的无人机。报告称，调查人员在几米外发现了一个装有爆炸物的罐子。他们怀疑这架无人机的目标可能是军用飞机，而不是民用货机。

德国西德广播公司（WDR）和《南德意志报》报道称，调查人员认为，根据德国联邦刑事警察局的技术分析，温斯托夫无人机已在基地附近停留了约两年。报道称，该无人机的构造与8月初莱比锡/哈勒机场袭击未遂事件中使用的装有炸药的无人机相似，但其出现时间明显早于莱比锡事件。

军事分析对这两起事件进行了区分：莱比锡事件对德军构成间接威胁，其目标是乌克兰飞机；而温斯托夫事件则很可能直接针对德国联邦国防军。评估报告指出，俄罗斯几乎肯定具备对德军及其设施，以及在德乌克兰伙伴采取行动的能力，而且很可能更有动机这样做。

报告还得出结论，俄罗斯将无人机用作武器的做法越过了之前预期的“红线”，即意图造成物理损害或潜在的致命后果。

经过长达一个月的调查，德国政府已公开认定莱比锡无人机袭击事件系俄罗斯所为。

分析指出，此次疑似行动与削弱德国民众对乌克兰的政治和公众支持的努力有关。在行动层面，分析评估认为，莫斯科试图干扰乌克兰的装备交付和训练，从而削弱乌克兰的自卫能力。

作战司令部发言人告诉WDR，由于威胁加剧，德国联邦国防军目前认为破坏风险“相当高”。据《南德意志报》报道，这使其在军方风险评估等级中位列第二高。

发言人表示，军方正在加强其设施的保护措施，以保障人员和设施的安全。

此前，德国安全部门接到多起可疑无人机飞越德国“箭-3”导弹防御系统和“爱国者”导弹维护设施的事件报告。据WDR报道，德国安全部门怀疑俄罗斯参与了这些以及其他监视事件。

俄罗斯一直否认参与破坏和混合袭击，并指责德国策划事件煽动反俄情绪。莫斯科驻柏林大使此前驳斥了德国对莱比锡事件的指控，称其“荒谬”，并将该事件描述为“挑衅”。

林努斯·霍勒是《防务新闻》的欧洲记者和开源情报调查员。他报道影响欧洲乃至全球的军火交易、制裁和地缘政治。他拥有大规模杀伤性武器不扩散、恐怖主义研究和国际关系三个硕士学位，并精通英语、德语、俄语和西班牙语四种语言。