Serbia’s snap election: What’s at stake and can students unseat Vucic?

A snap parliamentary vote on October 25 will determine whether a student-led group can loosen Vucic’s grip on power.

Parliament candidates of the electoral list 'Student List - Students Win' hold copies of the Constitution of the Republic of Serbia during a final campaign rally at Slavija Square in Belgrade, Serbia, October 22, 2026 [Uros Arsic/Reuters]

Serbia will hold a snap parliamentary election on October 25 .

The vote is seen as a test of whether President Aleksandar Vucic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) can extend its 14-year grip on power and stave off a student-led movement born out of mass anti-government protests.

Here’s what you need to know:

How did Serbia get here?

In November 2024, the collapse of a concrete canopy at a railway station in Novi Sad killed 16 people. What began as demands for accountability over the disaster grew into a nationwide movement against alleged corruption and the government’s handling of the tragedy.

Students emerged as the movement’s driving force, organising some of Serbia’s biggest demonstrations since the overthrow of Slobodan Milosevic. Their campaign has channelled deep frustration with the SNS, which has governed since 2012, and with a conventional opposition seen as fragmented and ineffective.

The parliamentary election was not due until late 2027. But Vucic resigned from the presidency in September, ahead of the end of his second and final constitutional term, and is leading the SNS campaign for prime minister. The manoeuvre has made the parliamentary contest central to his effort to retain political power before a separate presidential election must be held.

Who is challenging the ruling party?

The main challenger is the student-backed Student List–Students Win (Studentska lista–Studenti pobeduju), which brings together candidates with little or no previous political experience, including academics, teachers and other professionals.

It is campaigning on restoring the rule of law, ending corruption and rebuilding institutions, rather than focusing on divisive questions such as Kosovo, European Union membership or relations with Russia.

“The political dynamic has changed from the ground up,” Jelena Vasiljevic, a senior research associate at the University of Belgrade’s Institute for Philosophy and Social Theory, told Al Jazeera.

Young people, long considered the country’s most politically disengaged group, have become the core of its largest social mobilisation in decades, she said.

Some opposition parties have chosen not to run and instead support the student list.

Others are contesting the election but face the prospect of failing to clear the threshold for parliament. As a result, many see the vote as not simply a contest between parties, but a referendum on whether the SNS system should continue.

Why does the election matter?

The outcome will shape whether Serbia attempts to reset institutions that critics say have been hollowed out by years of party control. The SNS rejects allegations of abuse and corruption, but its opponents and rights groups accuse it of putting pressure on independent media, electoral malpractice and using state resources to maintain power.

For Vasiljevic, turnout will be decisive. The SNS retains a disciplined core electorate, supported by a clientelist model of government, in which goods and services are exchanged for political support, she said. The student list must not only unite opposition-minded voters but also mobilise habitual non-voters and the undecided.

A student list breakthrough would also remake the opposition.

Vasiljevic said parliament could contain a large group of politically inexperienced and ideologically diverse student-backed politicians, while traditional opposition parties could be greatly reduced. The result may therefore start a wider reorganisation of Serbia’s political landscape, regardless of who forms the government.

But winning power would be only the beginning.

Srdan Majstorovic, chair of the governing board of the European Policy Centre, said a new government would face the far harder task of rebuilding a democratic system after what he described as 14 years of systematic damage to institutions, the rule of law and public trust, compounded by deep social divisions and rampant corruption.

After years of what critics call a captured-state system, he said, Serbia would need a broad reset of its democratic governance.

What’s at stake for foreign policy?

Serbia’s stalled EU path is a part of the backdrop.

Majstorovic said progress has been blocked by concerns over the rule of law, Serbia’s limited alignment with EU sanctions, including those against Russia, and the stalled normalisation process with Kosovo.

A change in government would not automatically transform foreign policy, he said.

The student movement has avoided detailed commitments, instead treading carefully to unite left, centre and right-leaning voters.

Former president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, addresses his supporters gathered in a sports hall during the election campaign ‘Aleksandar Vucic for Prime Minister’ rally in Belgrade, Serbia, on October 22, 2026, three days before the country’s snap elections [AFP]

But Majstorovic said democratic reform, judicial independence, free media and tackling corruption could renew cooperation with Brussels and revive the accession process.

Igor Bandovic, director of the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, said foreign policy remained the biggest unknown in the student list’s programme. Its candidates have taken a hard line on Kosovo, proposed reviewing agreements reached under EU auspices and floated a referendum on EU membership within six months of taking office. They have also signalled continuity in relations with Russia.

Bandovic said a new government would probably face more immediate domestic priorities and the constraints of the Balkans’ security environment. But a referendum on EU membership could slow or halt accession further. If the SNS stays in power, he expects further deterioration in relations with Brussels.

External actors are watching closely.

Bandovic said Moscow has offered explicit support to the government, portraying the protests as a Western-backed “colour revolution”. The United States Congress has voiced concern about democratic standards and Serbia’s ties with Russia, while the US administration has been more restrained.

China, which has commercial interests in Serbia, has avoided public comment but is likely to prefer continuity.

How does the election work?

Voters will elect all 250 members of the National Assembly in a single nationwide constituency.

One ballot is cast for a party or coalition list, with seats allocated proportionally.

Electoral lists generally need at least 3 percent of votes to enter parliament, while recognised minority lists are exempt from the threshold.

The list or coalition able to command a majority in the 250-seat assembly will form a government.

But with the result expected to be close and the campaign taking place amid deep mistrust, the legitimacy of the process may prove as consequential as the final seat count.

Polls will close on Sunday at 8pm local time. Preliminary results are expected about two hours later.

10月25日将举行议会突击投票，以决定一个学生领导的团体能否削弱武契奇的权力。

2026年10月22日，在塞尔维亚贝尔格莱德斯拉维亚广场举行的最后一次竞选集会上，“学生名单 - 学生获胜”选举名单的议会候选人手持《塞尔维亚共和国宪法》副本。[Uros Arsic/路透社]

塞尔维亚将于10月25日举行提前议会选举。

此次投票被视为对总统亚历山大·武契奇领导的塞尔维亚进步党（SNS）能否延续其14年的执政地位，以及能否抵御由大规模反政府抗议活动催生的学生运动的一次考验。

以下是您需要了解的内容：

塞尔维亚是如何走到今天这一步的？

2024年11月，诺维萨德火车站的混凝土顶棚坍塌，造成16人死亡。最初只是要求对这场灾难追究责任，后来发展成为一场全国性的运动，抗议政府涉嫌腐败和对这场悲剧的处理方式。

学生成为这场运动的驱动力，组织了自斯洛博丹·米洛舍维奇被推翻以来塞尔维亚规模最大的一些示威活动。他们的运动反映了民众对自2012年以来一直执政的塞尔维亚进步党（SNS）以及被视为分裂且无能的传统反对派的深深不满。

议会选举原定于2027年底举行。但武契奇在9月辞去了总统职务，提前结束了他的第二个也是最后一个宪法任期，并领导塞尔维亚进步党（SNS）竞选总理。这一举动使得议会选举成为他力图在另行举行总统选举前保住政治权力的关键。

谁在挑战执政党？

主要挑战者是学生支持的“学生名单-学生获胜”（Studentska lista–Studenti pobeduju），该名单汇集了几乎没有或完全没有政治经验的候选人，包括学者、教师和其他专业人士。

该党竞选纲领是恢复法治、消除腐败和重建机构，而不是关注科索沃问题、欧盟成员国身份或与俄罗斯的关系等分裂性问题。

“政治格局已经从根本上发生了变化，”贝尔格莱德大学哲学与社会理论研究所高级研究员耶莱娜·瓦西列维奇告诉半岛电视台。

她表示，年轻人长期以来被认为是该国政治参与度最低的群体，如今却成为了几十年来最大规模社会动员的核心力量。

一些反对党选择不参选，而是支持学生名单。

其他人也在参加选举，但他们面临着无法达到议会门槛的困境。因此，许多人认为这次投票不仅仅是政党之间的竞争，更是对国家社会主义制度是否应该继续存在的全民公投。

为什么选举很重要？

此次选举结果将决定塞尔维亚是否会尝试重塑其体制。批评人士称，这些体制已被多年的政党控制掏空。塞尔维亚进步党否认滥用职权和腐败的指控，但其反对者和人权组织指责该党打压独立媒体、操纵选举并利用国家资源维持权力。

对瓦西列维奇而言，投票率至关重要。她表示，叙利亚进步党（SNS）拥有纪律严明的核心选民群体，并奉行裙带关系式的政府模式，以商品和服务换取政治支持。学生名单不仅要团结持反对意见的选民，还要动员那些习惯性不投票的人和尚未决定投票意向的人。

学生名单的突破也将重塑反对派。

瓦西列维奇表示，议会可能由大量缺乏政治经验、意识形态各异且受学生支持的政治人物组成，而传统反对党的席位可能会大幅减少。因此，无论最终由谁组建政府，选举结果都可能引发塞尔维亚政治格局的更广泛重组。

但赢得权力仅仅是开始。

欧洲政策中心理事会主席斯尔丹·马伊斯托罗维奇表示，新政府将面临重建民主制度的艰巨任务，他形容过去 14 年里，制度、法治和公众信任遭到了系统性的破坏，再加上严重的社会分裂和猖獗的腐败，使得重建民主制度变得更加困难。

他表示，经过多年批评人士所称的“被俘获国家”体制，塞尔维亚需要对其民主治理进行全面调整。

外交政策面临哪些风险？

塞尔维亚加入欧盟之路的停滞不前是其中的一个背景因素。

马伊斯托罗维奇表示，由于对法治的担忧、塞尔维亚对欧盟制裁（包括对俄罗斯的制裁）的有限配合以及与科索沃关系正常化进程的停滞，进展受到了阻碍。

他表示，政府更迭并不会自动改变外交政策。

学生运动一直避免做出具体承诺，而是谨慎行事，力图团结左翼、中间派和右翼选民。

2026年10月22日，塞尔维亚前总统亚历山大·武契奇在贝尔格莱德的一个体育馆内向支持者发表讲话，当时正值“亚历山大·武契奇竞选总理”的竞选集会，三天后该国将举行提前大选。[法新社]

但马伊斯托罗维奇表示，民主改革、司法独立、媒体自由和打击腐败可以恢复与布鲁塞尔的合作，并重启入盟进程。

贝尔格莱德安全政策中心主任伊戈尔·班多维奇表示，外交政策仍然是学生名单候选人竞选纲领中最大的未知数。这些候选人对科索沃问题采取强硬立场，提议重新审视在欧盟框架下达成的协议，并提出在就职六个月内举行欧盟成员国资格公投。他们还暗示将延续与俄罗斯的关系。

班多维奇表示，新政府可能会面临更为紧迫的国内事务以及巴尔干地区安全环境的制约。但就欧盟成员国身份举行全民公投可能会进一步延缓甚至阻止入盟进程。如果塞尔维亚进步党继续执政，他预计与布鲁塞尔的关系将进一步恶化。

外部势力正在密切关注。

班多维奇表示，莫斯科已明确表示支持塞尔维亚政府，并将抗议活动描述为西方支持的“颜色革命”。美国国会已对塞尔维亚的民主标准及其与俄罗斯的关系表示担忧，而美国政府则态度较为克制。

中国在塞尔维亚拥有商业利益，虽然一直避免公开置评，但可能更倾向于维持现状。

选举是如何进行的？

选民将在全国统一的选区内选举产生国民议会的全部 250 名议员。

选民只需投一票即可选择政党或联盟名单，席位按比例分配。

选举名单通常需要至少 3% 的选票才能进入议会，而获得认可的少数族裔名单则不受此门槛限制。

在拥有 250 个席位的议会中，能够获得多数席位的名单或联盟将组建政府。

但由于预计结果将非常接近，而且竞选活动是在深深的不信任中进行的，因此选举过程的合法性可能与最终的席位统计结果同样重要。

投票将于周日晚上8点（当地时间）结束。初步结果预计将在两小时后公布。