Are global oil reserves sufficient to withstand renewed US-Iran war?

With emergency stocks at multidecade lows, analysts say the world may have only a month or two if Hormuz shuts again.

Vessels are seen anchored off Bandar Abbas, Iran, along the Strait of Hormuz [File: Amirhossein Khorgooei/ISNA via AFP]

Oil prices have climbed towards their highest levels in five months as attacks on tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz mount and efforts to end the United States-Israel war on Iran are deadlocked.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose by more than $2 to $110.85 a barrel on Wednesday, close to a five-month peak.

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A day earlier, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said two tankers were “set ablaze” after hitting mines at what it called an illegal crossing point in the strait. Then, on Thursday, the IRGC said it hit seven more tankers although Washington dismissed the claim. In a statement, the IRGC said four of the vessels were transferring oil when they were targeted and caught fire overnight.

In September, the Houthis, an armed group also known as Ansar Allah (Arabic for Supporters of God), seized territory in Yemen close to the Bab al-Mandeb strait, a critical chokepoint into and out of the Red Sea and a gateway to Egypt’s Suez Canal.

The escalation came as the world’s emergency oil stocks, already tapped heavily since the Iran war began on February 28, sit at their lowest levels in decades.

Al Jazeera put a question to analysts: If fighting resumes in full, the Strait of Hormuz is shut off completely and Houthi attacks choke off Bab al-Mandeb, how long could the world’s reserves last?

Here’s what you need to know:

What emergency oil reserves are there?

Strategic oil reserves are stockpiles of crude oil and fuel held by governments or by companies on their behalf for use in a supply emergency.

The International Energy Agency (IEA), which was established in 1974 after the Arab oil embargo, coordinates most of them. Its importing members must hold at least 90 days of net imports. China and India are not members.

How much of the reserves has already been released this year?

On March 11, days after the start of the US-Israel war on Iran, the IEA’s 32 members agreed to make 400 million barrels available from emergency supplies, more than double the volume released after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The US pledged 172.2 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and Japan 79.8 million, according to IEA figures.

The SPR has since fallen to 283 million barrels, its lowest level since October 1982, according to the US Department of Energy.

Much of that oil was lent rather than sold and must be returned with extra barrels, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

How much oil is left?

Far less than before the war began in February, and not all of it can be used.

Aaron Kildow, a senior crude oil analyst at Sparta Commodities, told Al Jazeera that global strategic stocks excluding China and Iran have fallen by nearly 327 million barrels since the end of December 2025 with the US, Europe and Japan accounting for about 95 percent of the draw.

He estimated that leaves only about 400 million barrels of usable reserves worldwide, excluding China’s stockpile, which is unlikely to be exported, and Gulf stocks, which could be cut off by a total closure of Hormuz.

Nearly half of these available stocks are in Japan.

Europe has about 76 million barrels uncommitted, but members such as Germany are holding some back for a local emergency, Kildow said.

“Europe is the real wildcard, both on timing and willingness,” Kildow said.

Meanwhile, China’s onshore crude stocks stand at 1.13 billion barrels, down from 1.23 billion in late February but still enough for about 80 days of refinery intake, Muyu Xu, a senior crude oil analyst at the analytics firm Kpler, told Al Jazeera.

India’s reserves cover just eight days of its imports, the Reuters news agency reported.

What would a full closure of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb mean?

Before the war, about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, or roughly 20 million barrels of oil a day, passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia has increased the amount of crude it transports from its oilfields in the east to its Red Sea port of Yanbu in the west via the East-West Pipeline, thereby bypassing Hormuz.

But there have been strikes on that pipeline, and tankers heading south from Yanbu must pass through Bab a-Mandeb, where the Iran-backed Houthis declared a blockade on Saudi shipping in July.

Only a confirmed 373,000 barrels a day of Saudi crude have transited Bab al-Mandeb so far this month, the lowest level since February, Xu said, with most Yanbu cargoes now heading north via Egypt instead.

If Hormuz were shut and the Houthis blocked all Saudi tankers, Gulf producers could export only through a few pipelines and Yanbu’s northbound route, Xu said.

That would leave about 7.5 million barrels a day of Middle Eastern crude, against 16.8 million now, a shortfall of about 9.3 million barrels a day, she estimated.

“If such attacks occur, the supply disruption could be even more severe and prolonged,” Xu said, referring to strikes on oilfields, terminals and pipelines.

So how long would reserves last?

Not for long – possibly just weeks, according to experts.

If Kpler’s estimated shortfall had to be covered entirely from the roughly 400 million usable barrels that Kildow identified, they could not, in practice, be released that fast. Japanese and South Korean reserves can move quickly, Kildow said, but US barrels are staged over three months, and Europe’s contribution is uncertain.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, said the world was fortunate after the first closure. “The salient feature of March and beyond was how a crisis didn’t actually develop. We got away with it,” he said.

“I don’t think the global economy will be as lucky next time if there is a protracted conflict,” Beauchamp said. “A month or two is all we have.”

The world would not literally run out of oil. Instead, prices would rise until enough demand disappeared. “One hundred fifty dollars [per barrel] becomes a very distinct possibility, which then sees significant demand destruction,” Beauchamp said.

The sharpest squeeze would be on diesel, which is already nearly double the price of crude, the IEA said.

Refiners would compete for crude grades rich in diesel, “a cost that ultimately lands on consumers,” Kildow said.

Who would feel it first?

Asian importers with thin reserves.

Most Gulf exports in September and October went to Asian buyers, and India and Pakistan are among the most exposed, Kildow said, adding that their nearest alternative supply, from West Africa, is 25 to 28 days away by sea, compared with two days from Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates.

“The squeeze won’t hit uniformly. It lands fastest and hardest where reserves are thinnest and substitute supply is farthest away,” Kildow said.

Oil producers far from the Gulf.

In the second quarter of this year, as the US-Iran war was under way, ExxonMobil reported earnings of $14.5bn, its highest in four years while Chevron posted $12bn, its best in six years and Shell more than doubled its earnings to nearly $10bn. Their profits are largely down to the high oil prices.

A second shock would send refiners scrambling for supplies from the US, Latin America, West Africa and Russia, Xu said.

“This would allow non-Middle Eastern producers to benefit from higher crude prices, potentially alongside lower transportation costs,” she said.

In August, US President Donald Trump said companies such as ExxonMobil and Chevron were “making too much money based on a shortage”.

由于应急储备处于数十年来的最低水平，分析师表示，如果霍尔木兹海峡再次关闭，世界可能只有一两个月的缓冲时间。

在伊朗阿巴斯港附近的霍尔木兹海峡，可以看到船只抛锚停泊。[图片来源：Amirhossein Khorgooei/ISNA via AFP]

由于霍尔木兹海峡及其周边地区针对油轮的袭击事件不断增加，而结束美国和以色列对伊朗战争的努力陷入僵局，油价已攀升至五个月来的最高水平。

国际基准布伦特原油周三上涨超过 2 美元，至每桶 110.85 美元，接近五个月来的最高点。

受美国制裁的四家国际刑事法院之一荣获萨哈罗夫奖，这是欧盟最高人权奖。

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一天前，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）称，两艘油轮在海峡一处被其称为非法穿越点的地点触雷后“起火”。周四，革命卫队又表示击中了七艘油轮，但华盛顿方面否认了这一说法。革命卫队在一份声明中称，其中四艘油轮在夜间遭到袭击时正在运输石油，并于夜间起火。

9 月，胡塞武装（又称安萨尔真主，阿拉伯语意为“真主的支持者”）占领了也门靠近曼德海峡的领土。曼德海峡是进出红海的重要咽喉要道，也是通往埃及苏伊士运河的门户。

局势升级之际，世界紧急石油储备已降至数十年来的最低水平，而自2月28日伊朗战争爆发以来，这些储备已被大量动用。

半岛电视台向分析人士提出一个问题：如果战斗全面恢复，霍尔木兹海峡完全被封锁，胡塞武装的进攻扼杀了曼德海峡，世界石油储备能维持多久？

以下是您需要了解的内容：

有哪些应急石油储备？

战略石油储备是指政府或代表政府持有的原油和燃料库存，用于应对供应紧急情况。

国际能源署（IEA）成立于1974年阿拉伯石油禁运之后，负责协调其中大部分的石油进口。其进口成员国必须保持至少90天的净进口量。中国和印度并非成员国。

今年已经释放了多少储备金？

3 月 11 日，在美以对伊朗发动战争几天后，国际能源署的 32 个成员国同意从紧急储备中提供 4 亿桶石油，是 2022 年俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰后释放石油量的两倍多。

根据国际能源署的数据，美国承诺从其战略石油储备中提供 1.722 亿桶石油，日本承诺提供 7980 万桶石油。

据美国能源部称，战略石油储备已降至 2.83 亿桶，为 1982 年 10 月以来的最低水平。

据美国能源信息署称，这些石油大部分是借出的而不是卖出的，必须连同额外的石油一起归还。

还剩多少油？

比二月份战争爆发前少得多，而且并非所有物资都能被利用。

斯巴达商品公司高级原油分析师亚伦·基尔多告诉半岛电视台，自 2025 年 12 月底以来，除中国和伊朗外，全球战略原油库存已减少近 3.27 亿桶，其中美国、欧洲和日本的减少量约占 95%。

他估计，全球仅剩约 4 亿桶可用石油储备，还不包括不太可能出口的中国石油储备，以及可能因霍尔木兹海峡完全关闭而中断的海湾石油储备。

这些可供出售的股票中，近一半在日本。

基尔多表示，欧洲约有 7600 万桶未承诺的石油储备，但德国等成员国为了应对局部紧急情况而保留了一些。

“欧洲才是真正的变数，无论是时机还是意愿，”基尔多说。

与此同时，据分析公司Kpler的高级原油分析师徐慕宇告诉半岛电视台，中国陆上原油库存为11.3亿桶，低于2月底的12.3亿桶，但仍足以满足炼油厂约80天的进货量。

路透社报道称，印度的储备仅够其进口八天。

霍尔木兹海峡和曼德海峡完全封闭意味着什么？

战前，世界上大约五分之一的石油和液化天然气供应，也就是每天大约 2000 万桶石油，都要经过霍尔木兹海峡。

沙特阿拉伯增加了从东部油田通过东西输油管道向西部红海港口延布输送原油的数量，从而绕过了霍尔木兹海峡。

但这条输油管道曾遭到袭击，从延布南下的油轮必须经过曼德海峡，伊朗支持的胡塞武装于 7 月宣布封锁沙特航运。

徐表示，本月迄今为止，经曼德海峡运输的沙特原油日均运输量仅为37.3万桶，是2月份以来的最低水平，目前大部分延布原油都改经埃及北上运输。

徐表示，如果霍尔木兹海峡被封锁，胡塞武装封锁所有沙特油轮，海湾地区的生产商只能通过少数几条管道和延布的北行路线出口石油。

她估计，这将导致中东原油日产量减少约750万桶，而目前的日产量为1680万桶，缺口约为930万桶。

“如果发生此类袭击，供应中断可能会更加严重和持久，”徐说，他指的是对油田、码头和管道的袭击。

那么储备能维持多久？

专家表示，这种情况不会持续太久，可能只有几周时间。

如果克普勒估计的石油缺口必须完全由基尔多确定的约4亿桶可用储量来弥补，那么实际上这些储量不可能如此迅速地释放出来。基尔多表示，日本和韩国的石油储备可以快速释放，但美国的石油储备需要三个月的时间才能释放完毕，而欧洲的贡献则尚不确定。

IG集团首席市场分析师克里斯·比彻姆表示，世界在第一次封锁后很幸运。“3月及之后最显著的特点是，危机实际上并没有爆发。我们侥幸躲过了一劫。”他说。

“我认为，如果下次冲突旷日持久，全球经济就不会这么幸运了，”博尚说。“我们只有一两个月的时间了。”

世界不会真的耗尽石油。相反，油价会持续上涨，直到需求大幅下降。“每桶150美元的可能性非常大，届时需求将大幅萎缩，”博尚说道。

国际能源署表示，柴油价格将受到最严重的挤压，目前柴油价格已接近原油价格的两倍。

基尔多表示，炼油商将竞相争夺富含柴油的原油等级，“最终成本会转嫁到消费者身上”。

谁会最先感受到？

亚洲进口商储备不足。

基尔多表示，9月和10月海湾地区的大部分出口产品都销往了亚洲买家，其中印度和巴基斯坦受到的影响最大。他还补充说，从西非进口的最近的替代货源，海运需要25到28天，而从阿联酋富查伊拉进口只需两天。

“供应紧张的局面不会均匀地发生。储备最薄弱、替代供应最远的地方，受到的影响最大、速度也最快，”基尔多说。

远离墨西哥湾的石油生产商。

今年第二季度，正值美伊战争期间，埃克森美孚公布的盈利为145亿美元，创四年来新高；雪佛龙的盈利为120亿美元，创六年来新高；壳牌的盈利更是翻了一番多，接近100亿美元。它们的利润主要得益于高油价。

徐表示，第二次冲击将导致炼油商争相从美国、拉丁美洲、西非和俄罗斯寻求供应。

她表示：“这将使非中东地区的生产商能够从原油价格上涨中受益，同时运输成本也可能降低。”

8 月，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，埃克森美孚和雪佛龙等公司“利用短缺赚取了太多利润”。