Russia drops cluster bombs on Ukraine as Kyiv consolidates front line

Russia’s territorial gains this year are effectively nil as it heads into trilateral talks with Ukraine, US.

Firefighters work at the site of an office building damaged during a Russian jet drone strike in Kharkiv, Ukraine, October 23, 2026 [Sofiia Gatilova/Reuters]

Ukraine said it recaptured more of its territory than Russia had managed to seize this year, despite restrictions on US satellite services critical to its defence.

Russia responded by hitting dozens of Ukraine’s energy facilities and using cluster bombs in attacks that harmed civilians.

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“Our soldiers have liberated more territory since the beginning of autumn than the Russians have managed to capture,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a public address.

Ukrainian General Staff spokesman Andriy Kovalev denied Russian claims to have seized 1,800 sq km (700 square miles) of Ukrainian territory during the autumn.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank that uses geolocated open-source information to assess territorial movements, said Ukraine had made a net gain of 241 sq km (93 square miles) since September 1, effectively eliminating any Russian territorial gains this year.

People walk in front of a multi-storey residential building damaged by a Russian drone strike on Kyiv, Ukraine, October 21, 2026. [Evgeniy Maloletka/AP Photo]

Russia’s casualties suggest the effectiveness of its forces is in decline.

Russian losses – meaning those killed or severely wounded – hovered around 30,000 a month from January to May, but steadily increased over the summer. According to Ukrainian estimates, Russia lost 46,230 soldiers in September, its highest monthly losses of the year, and 37,000 so far in October.

October 21 marked its highest daily losses of the entire war, at 2,250, said Robert Brovdi, the commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces of Ukraine, as his unit’s kill rate had climbed to a new record.

Overall, Ukraine estimated there were more than 350,000 Russian dead and wounded since the beginning of the year.

Many of Ukraine’s territorial gains were made by Operation Vivaldi, a Ukrainian counteroffensive that stopped a Russian pincer movement to recapture the remaining one-fifth of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region – roughly 5,500 sq km (2,000 square miles).

General Andriy Biletskyi, who led Ukraine’s Third Army Corps to victory in that campaign, said he had eliminated a Russian bridgehead on the western bank of the Zherebets river, and crossed over to the east bank, shortening his own front line and concentrating artillery and unmanned aerial firepower, stabilising its defence.

The defeat of the pincer, said Biletskyi, had left Russia with the unsavoury option of a frontal assault on the “fortress belt” of heavily defended cities of Kramatorsk, Sloviansk and Druzhivka.

Russia had “temporarily abandoned this plan, although it plans to resume it,” Biletskyi told the Ukrainian news outlet Suspilne. Russian military expert Andrey Marochko told Russia’s state news agency TASS that Ukraine was reinforcing the fortress cities.

Russia has responded to its sagging military fortunes by increasing the ferocity of its attacks on civilians.

On October 22, it flew three ballistic missiles with cluster warheads into Kyiv, Zelenskyy said.

“This warhead detonates above the ground and is specifically designed to inflict maximum damage on people and equipment within an area of 400 by 400 metres,” said Ukrainian Defence Ministry senior adviser Serhiy Beskrestnov . “45 submunitions explode in the air.”

A woman looks at residential house destroyed in a Russian missile strike in Kyiv, Thursday, October 22, 2026 [Efrem Lukatsky/AP]

One of the warheads struck an area between the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra cathedral and a monastery.

“There was not even theoretically any military object nearby,” said Zelenskyy. “It is a deliberate choice of weapons, a deliberate choice of the area.”

Russia’s Defence Ministry claimed it had targeted an assembly building for the FP-5 long-range drones and FP-9 missiles Ukraine has been using against it, as well as other drone manufacturing sites.

More than anything else, though, Russia has relentlessly targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, despite United States President Donald Trump declaring an energy ceasefire for both sides on October 11.

Since then, there had been more than 170 strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, Zelenskyy said.

“Russia is not achieving any significant results on the front lines. Therefore, it is directing all its aggression and hatred towards terrorising civilian infrastructure: electricity, heating, and now, water. The goal is clear – to exhaust the people,” Prime Minister Serhiy Khoretskyi told the BBC.

Since he assumed office on July 16, he said, Russia had attacked Ukraine’s energy infrastructure 2,147 times.

Ukraine has been hampered in its defence by the US, which on October 8 was understood to have stopped providing early warning of incoming ballistic missiles for the second time this year.

Zelenskyy said that early warning had been restored on October 20, but three other US actions detrimental to Ukraine’s defence had not been reversed.

One was Trump’s waiver of oil export sanctions on Russia to lower the price of diesel, which he formalised with an executive order on October 16. Putin said on October 21 that Russia’s first shipment of 40,000 tonnes of diesel to the US would depart within two or three days.

Another issue was that the US has not released Patriot interceptors to Ukraine, which are its most effective defence against ballistic missiles, despite having previously supplied a dozen a month, and despite the fact that Europe has paid for them.

But the biggest problem was that Ukraine’s ability to fly its drones at more than 150kmh (100mph) using the Starshield satellite navigation system remained suspended.

Ukraine has said it cannot intercept fast-moving jet-powered drones at such speeds, and its attacks on Russian logistics, as well as the resupply of its own front lines by drone, are also rendered more vulnerable.

Starshield was created as a military application of Starlink, owned by Elon Musk, and he and the White House traded blame for making the decision to restrict it throughout the week. Trump said on October 22 that Starlink and Starshield services were about to be restored.

After initially observing Trump’s energy ceasefire, Ukraine resumed targeting Russian energy infrastructure, as part of an economic strategy to starve the Russian war machine of export revenue.

People attend a rally demanding to free Ukrainian prisoners of war who are held in captivity in Russia in Lviv, Ukraine, Saturday, October 17, 2026 [Mykola Tys/AP]

On October 18, it struck the St Petersburg oil terminal, Russia’s biggest offloading terminal for oil exports. It also hit a data centre serving Russian social media platform Vkontakte, disrupting services.

Other facilities were likely targeted. Russia’s Defence Ministry said it had downed 1,015 Ukrainian drones over various regions that night.

The US appeared to leverage its waiver of diesel sanctions and the suspension of Starshield services to push for a trilateral meeting among the US, Russia and Ukraine.

US envoy Steve Witkoff met with Zelenskyy in Oslo on October 20, and followed up with a meeting with Putin in St Petersburg the following day.

Putin aide Yuri Ushakov told the media that Russia had agreed “in principle” to meet on November 10. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said the planned meeting would be held in Abu Dhabi.

俄罗斯今年在领土方面几乎没有取得任何进展，即将与乌克兰和美国举行三方会谈。

2026年10月23日，在乌克兰哈尔科夫，消防员在俄罗斯战机无人机袭击中受损的办公楼现场进行救援。[Sofiia Gatilova/路透社]

乌克兰表示，尽管美国对其国防至关重要的卫星服务实施了限制，但乌克兰收复的领土比俄罗斯今年占领的领土还要多。

俄罗斯随即袭击了乌克兰数十个能源设施，并在袭击中使用集束炸弹，造成平民伤亡。

列表 1/4：维特科夫与普京会晤后，俄罗斯对基辅发动空袭

尽管承诺恢复和平谈判，俄罗斯和乌克兰仍互相攻击（共4项，此列为第2项）

列表 3/4：国际能源署署长警告称，“今年欧洲的日子不好过”

问题 4（共 4 个）：全球石油储备是否足以抵御美伊战争的再次爆发？

乌克兰总统泽连斯基在一次公开讲话中表示：“自秋季开始以来，我们的士兵解放的领土比俄罗斯人占领的领土还要多。”

乌克兰总参谋部发言人安德烈·科瓦列夫否认了俄罗斯关于在秋季占领乌克兰1800平方公里（700平方英里）领土的说法。

总部位于华盛顿的智库“战争研究所”利用地理定位的开源信息来评估领土变动，该研究所表示，自 9 月 1 日以来，乌克兰净增领土 241 平方公里（93 平方英里），有效地抵消了俄罗斯今年取得的任何领土增长。

2026年10月21日，在乌克兰基辅，人们走过一栋被俄罗斯无人机袭击损毁的多层住宅楼。[Evgeniy Maloletka/AP Photo]

俄罗斯的伤亡表明其军队的战斗力正在下降。

从1月到5月，俄军的伤亡人数（指阵亡或重伤人数）每月徘徊在3万人左右，但夏季期间稳步上升。据乌克兰方面估计，俄军9月份阵亡士兵46230人，创下年内单月最高纪录；10月份至今已阵亡3.7万人。

乌克兰无人系统部队指挥官罗伯特·布罗夫迪表示，10 月 21 日是整个战争中单日损失最高的一天，达到 2250 人，因为他的部队的击杀率也攀升到了新的纪录。

乌克兰方面估计，自年初以来，已有超过35万名俄罗斯人伤亡。

乌克兰的许多领土成果都是通过“维瓦尔第行动”取得的，这是一次乌克兰反攻，阻止了俄罗斯对乌克兰东部顿涅茨克地区剩余五分之一领土（约 5500 平方公里，即 2000 平方英里）的钳形攻势。

在那场战役中率领乌克兰第三军取得胜利的安德烈·比列茨基将军表示，他消灭了俄军在热列别茨河西岸的桥头堡，并渡河到东岸，缩短了自己的前线，集中了炮兵和无人机火力，稳定了防御。

比列茨基说，钳形攻势的失败让俄罗斯不得不采取一个令人不快的方案，即正面进攻克拉马托尔斯克、斯拉维扬斯克和德鲁日夫卡这三座防守严密的城市组成的“堡垒带”。

比列茨基告诉乌克兰新闻媒体Suspilne，俄罗斯“暂时放弃了这项计划，但计划重新启动”。俄罗斯军事专家安德烈·马罗奇科告诉俄罗斯国家通讯社塔斯社，乌克兰正在加强要塞城市的防御。

俄罗斯军事实力下滑，反而加大了对平民的袭击力度。

泽连斯基说，10月22日，美军向基辅发射了三枚带有集束弹头的弹道导弹。

乌克兰国防部高级顾问谢尔盖·别斯克列斯特诺夫表示：“这种弹头在地面以上引爆，其设计目的是对400米乘400米范围内的人员和装备造成最大程度的破坏。45枚子弹药在空中爆炸。”

2026年10月22日星期四，一名女子在基辅望着被俄罗斯导弹袭击摧毁的民居。[Efrem Lukatsky/AP]

其中一枚弹头击中了基辅佩乔尔斯克修道院大教堂和一座修道院之间的区域。

泽连斯基说：“理论上附近根本没有任何军事目标。这是蓄意选择武器，也是蓄意选择袭击地点。”

俄罗斯国防部声称，他们袭击了乌克兰用于攻击俄罗斯的FP-5远程无人机和FP-9导弹的组装厂，以及其他无人机制造基地。

不过，尽管美国总统唐纳德·特朗普于 10 月 11 日宣布双方能源停火，俄罗斯仍然持续不断地攻击乌克兰的能源基础设施。

泽连斯基说，自那以后，乌克兰的能源基础设施已经遭受了170多次袭击。

“俄罗斯在前线没有取得任何显著战果。因此，它将所有侵略和仇恨都转向破坏民用基础设施：电力、供暖，现在还有供水。其目标很明确——耗尽民众的精力，”俄罗斯总理谢尔盖·霍列茨基对BBC表示。

他说，自他7月16日上任以来，俄罗斯已经对乌克兰的能源基础设施发动了2147次袭击。

乌克兰的国防受到了美国的阻碍，据了解，美国于 10 月 8 日第二次停止向乌克兰提供来袭弹道导弹的预警。

泽连斯基表示，预警系统已于 10 月 20 日恢复，但美国对乌克兰国防的三项其他不利行动尚未得到纠正。

其中一项举措是特朗普豁免对俄罗斯的石油出口制裁，以降低柴油价格，他于10月16日通过行政命令正式确认了这一决定。普京于10月21日表示，俄罗斯向美国出口的首批4万吨柴油将在两三天内启运。

另一个问题是，尽管美国此前每月向乌克兰提供十几套“爱国者”拦截器（这是乌克兰对抗弹道导弹最有效的防御手段），而且欧洲也为此支付了费用，但美国至今仍未向乌克兰交付“爱国者”拦截器。

但最大的问题是，乌克兰使用“星盾”卫星导航系统以超过 150 公里/小时（100 英里/小时）的速度飞行无人机的能力仍然被暂停。

乌克兰表示，它无法拦截速度如此之快的喷气式无人机，而且它对俄罗斯后勤设施的攻击以及用无人机向其前线补给也变得更加脆弱。

Starshield是埃隆·马斯克旗下Starlink的军事应用版本，马斯克和白宫就限制Starshield服务的决定互相指责。10月22日，特朗普表示Starlink和Starshield的服务即将恢复。

乌克兰最初遵守了特朗普的能源停火协议，但随后又恢复了对俄罗斯能源基础设施的攻击，这是乌克兰旨在切断俄罗斯战争机器出口收入的经济战略的一部分。

2026年10月17日星期六，在乌克兰利沃夫，人们参加集会，要求释放被俄罗斯关押的乌克兰战俘。[Mykola Tys/AP]

10月18日，地震袭击了俄罗斯最大的石油出口卸货码头——圣彼得堡石油码头。地震还袭击了为俄罗斯社交媒体平台Vkontakte提供服务的数据中心，导致服务中断。

其他设施可能也成为了袭击目标。俄罗斯国防部称，当晚在不同地区击落了1015架乌克兰无人机。

美国似乎利用其对柴油制裁的豁免和暂停“星盾”服务，推动美国、俄罗斯和乌克兰举行三方会谈。

美国特使史蒂夫·威特科夫于10月20日在奥斯陆会见了泽连斯基，第二天又在圣彼得堡与普京举行了会晤。

普京的助手尤里·乌沙科夫告诉媒体，俄罗斯“原则上”同意于11月10日举行会晤。克里姆林宫发言人德米特里·佩斯科夫表示，计划中的会晤将在阿布扎比举行。