Saudi missile plant expansion may produce more powerful missiles, study says

Saudi Arabia appears to be expanding its ballistic missile factory to build larger solid-fuel missiles that could fly farther or carry heavier payloads, according to two U.S. researchers who analyzed more than a year of commercial satellite images.

More capable missiles could help Saudi Arabia to deter attacks by Iran and make its military more self-reliant, while possibly strengthening its position in a deadly conflict with Yemen’s Tehran-backed Houthi fighters.

But they risk fueling a regional missile race and could deepen opposition in the U.S. Congress to a U.S.-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement that has already raised concerns about proliferation.

Satellite company Planet Labs, based in the U.S., took images of the al-Duwadimi complex about 125 miles west of Riyadh between April 2025 and September 2026.

The two researchers, Sam Lair and Michael Duitsman of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, assessed that those images show a new building that houses casting pits — wells in which a mixture of fuel ingredients is poured into missile motor casings and allowed to harden.

The Saudi embassy and Information Ministry did not respond to requests for comment.

The building, flanked by what appear to be walls to protect nearby structures from accidental explosions, is at least twice as large as the one believed to house the plant’s existing casting pits, Lair and Duitsman said in their assessment. The Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) is a non-partisan research organization in Philadelphia.

A second new building could be used to store fuel ingredients or finished missile components, they said.

The imagery “suggests that Saudi Arabia is expanding the infrastructure at the missile production complex, likely to produce larger missiles which could deliver larger payloads or reach longer ranges,” they wrote.

Militaries favor solid-fuel missiles because they can be stored for long periods and launched more quickly than liquid-fuel systems.

Lair and Duitsman and experts from the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and the CNA research and analysis organization told Reuters that the makeup of Saudi Arabia’s missile force suggests that the al-Duwadimi complex relies on Chinese technology. Lair and Duitsman said that its characteristics are also similar to Chinese missile plants.

Saudi Arabia secretly acquired about 40 liquid-fuel DF-3 ballistic missiles from China in 1987, according to a 1991 declassified CIA estimate. It displayed two of them for the first time in an April 2014 military parade, according to a YouTube video and photographs of the event.

The FPRI team also recently identified from social media videos and photos what they assessed was the wreckage in Yemen of a Saudi-fired Chinese-designed DF-15 missile.

Lair said the kingdom may now be producing the solid-fuel DF-15, and that the expansion of a1-Dumadimi is likely for the production of the longer-range DF-21 or a similar missile.

Riyadh is believed to have turned to Beijing because Washington has long restricted exports of longer-range missile systems.

The Chinese embassy and defense ministry did not respond to requests for comment. The CIA declined to comment. The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Missiles would alter the balance of power

Sascha Bruchmann, a research fellow at IISS, said longer-range missiles would allow Saudi Arabia to strike Iran without risking its U.S.-supplied F-15 jet fighters against Iranian air defenses.

“You’d want a system to threaten whatever is holy to Tehran ... if you don’t have the political will to send an F-15 with JDAMs over Tehran,” said Bruchmann, referring to U.S.-made satellite-guided bombs. “Iran has a lead because its missiles and drones can strike Saudi wherever it wants. The Saudis could close that capability gap a bit.”

Bruchmann, who reviewed the FPRI analysis at Reuters request, concurred that the expansion of al-Duwadimi could be for producing more powerful solid-fuel missiles.

Janes, the defense intelligence company, also reviewed it and said the buildings “may suggest an effort to expand production capability or support the development of longer-range missiles.”

Saudi Arabia’s apparent pursuit of more powerful missiles comes as other Gulf powers are also seeking to expand their offensive and defensive arsenals, said Decker Eveleth, a CNA analyst who has been tracking the al-Duwadimi construction with commercial satellite imagery and concurred with the FPRI assessment.

“This is being replicated across the Middle East,” he said. “You see exactly the same thing happening in the UAE. You see the exact same thing happening in Turkey. Everybody is doing this now.”

The expansion of al-Duwadimi could have political consequences in the US by stiffening bipartisan congressional opposition to a US-Saudi agreement under which the US would help Riyadh establish uranium enrichment for power generation.

Opponents say that the deal lacks sufficient safeguards to prevent Riyadh from secretly building a nuclear weapon. The kingdom has denied any such plan.

Work began last year

The FPRI assessment said the Planet Labs imagery showed that the expansion at al-Duwadimi began in April 2025 with ground-clearing and digging for the suspected storage building. Work on the suspected casting-pit building began later that month or in early May, it said.

A December 12, 2025, photo showed what researchers assessed were two deep pits inside the building that had no roof yet.

A Sept. 18, 2026, photo shows the roof still partly missing and “heavy duty blast diverting walls” on either side to prevent accidental explosions from damaging adjacent structures.

The walls, the researchers said, are somewhat similar to those depicted in imagery of US and Iranian missile plants and “further evidence the building is for casting solid propellant motors.”

Finishing the roofs would not take long, the FPRI said, but installing casting equipment may take several months. The facility could be ready to start producing missiles as early as the end of the year.

两名美国研究人员分析了一年多的商业卫星图像后发现，沙特阿拉伯似乎正在扩建其弹道导弹工厂，以制造更大的固体燃料导弹，这些导弹可以飞得更远或携带更重的有效载荷。

性能更强的导弹可以帮助沙特阿拉伯阻止伊朗的袭击，使其军队更加自力更生，同时可能增强其在与也门胡塞武装（德黑兰支持）的致命冲突中的地位。

但这有可能助长地区导弹竞赛，并可能加深美国国会对美沙民用核协议的反对，该协议已经引发了人们对核扩散的担忧。

总部位于美国的卫星公司 Planet Labs 在 2025 年 4 月至 2026 年 9 月期间拍摄了位于利雅得以西约 125 英里的杜瓦迪米建筑群的图像。

来自外交政策研究所的两名研究人员萨姆·莱尔和迈克尔·杜伊茨曼评估认为，这些图像显示的是一座新建筑，其中包含铸造坑——将燃料成分混合物倒入导弹发动机外壳并使其硬化的井。

沙特阿拉伯大使馆和新闻部均未回应置评请求。

莱尔和杜伊茨曼在评估报告中指出，这座建筑两侧似乎建有围墙，旨在保护附近建筑物免受意外爆炸的影响，其规模至少是目前据信容纳该工厂现有铸造坑的建筑的两倍。外交政策研究所（FPRI）是位于费城的一家无党派研究机构。

他们说，第二栋新建筑可以用来储存燃料原料或成品导弹部件。

他们写道：“这些图像表明沙特阿拉伯正在扩建导弹生产基地的基础设施，可能是为了生产更大的导弹，这些导弹可以携带更大的有效载荷或射程更远。”

军方更倾向于使用固体燃料导弹，因为它们可以长期储存，而且比液体燃料系统发射速度更快。

莱尔和杜伊茨曼以及来自伦敦国际战略研究所（IISS）和CNA研究分析机构的专家告诉路透社，沙特阿拉伯导弹部队的构成表明，杜瓦迪米导弹基地依赖于中国技术。莱尔和杜伊茨曼表示，该基地的特征也与中国导弹工厂类似。

根据1991年解密的一份中央情报局估计报告，沙特阿拉伯于1987年秘密从中国获得了约40枚DF-3液体燃料弹道导弹。根据YouTube上的视频和当时的阅兵式照片，沙特阿拉伯在2014年4月的阅兵式上首次展示了其中两枚导弹。

FPRI团队最近还通过社交媒体视频和照片确认，他们评估认为在也门发现的是一枚由沙特阿拉伯发射的中国设计的DF-15导弹的残骸。

莱尔表示，沙特王国现在可能正在生产固体燃料的DF-15导弹，而a1-杜马迪米工厂的扩建很可能是为了生产射程更远的DF-21导弹或类似的导弹。

据信，利雅得转向北京是因为华盛顿长期以来限制远程导弹系统的出口。

中国大使馆和国防部均未回应置评请求。中央情报局拒绝置评。白宫也未回应置评请求。

导弹将改变力量平衡。

国际战略研究所 (IISS) 研究员萨沙·布鲁赫曼表示，远程导弹将使沙特阿拉伯能够在不冒着让其美国提供的 F-15 战斗机与伊朗防空系统对抗的风险的情况下打击伊朗。

布鲁赫曼说：“如果你没有足够的政治意愿派遣携带联合直接攻击弹药（JDAM）的F-15战机飞越德黑兰，你就需要一套能够威胁德黑兰一切神圣事物的系统。”他指的是美国制造的卫星制导炸弹。“伊朗之所以领先，是因为它的导弹和无人机可以打击沙特阿拉伯的任何目标。沙特阿拉伯或许能够缩小这一能力差距。”

应路透社要求审阅了FPRI分析报告的布鲁赫曼也认为，杜瓦迪米工厂的扩建可能是为了生产威力更大的固体燃料导弹。

国防情报公司简氏防务周刊也对其进行了审查，并表示这些建筑“可能表明正在努力扩大生产能力或支持远程导弹的研发”。

CNA分析师德克尔·伊夫莱斯表示，沙特阿拉伯显然正在寻求更强大的导弹，与此同时，其他海湾国家也在寻求扩大其进攻性和防御性武器库。伊夫莱斯一直利用商业卫星图像追踪杜瓦迪米导弹防御系统的建设，并同意FPRI的评估。

他说：“这种情况正在整个中东地区蔓延。阿联酋的情况也完全一样。土耳其的情况也完全一样。现在大家都在这样做。”

杜瓦迪米的扩张可能会在美国产生政治后果，加剧两党国会对美沙协议的反对，根据该协议，美国将帮助利雅得建立铀浓缩设施用于发电。

反对者称，该协议缺乏足够的保障措施，无法阻止利雅得秘密研制核武器。沙特王国否认有任何此类计划。

这项工作始于去年。

FPRI的评估报告指出，Planet Labs的卫星图像显示，杜瓦迪米矿区的扩建工程始于2025年4月，当时正在进行场地清理和挖掘工作，疑似用于建造储藏建筑。报告还指出，疑似用于铸造的矿坑建筑的施工始于当月晚些时候或5月初。

2025 年 12 月 12 日的一张照片显示，研究人员评估认为，这栋尚未加盖屋顶的建筑物内部有两个深坑。

2026 年 9 月 18 日的一张照片显示，屋顶仍然部分缺失，两侧有“重型防爆墙”，以防止意外爆炸损坏邻近的建筑物。

研究人员表示，这些墙壁与美国和伊朗导弹工厂的图像中描绘的墙壁有些相似，“进一步证明该建筑是用于铸造固体推进剂发动机的”。

FPRI表示，屋顶施工不会花费太长时间，但安装铸造设备可能需要几个月的时间。该工厂最早可能在年底前开始生产导弹。