‘Foreign policy is the economy’: How Iran war is shaping US midterm vote

Democrats are framing the conflict as an affordability issue to criticise Republican candidates backed by Trump.

A board shows the price of gasoline or petrol at a filling station in Dearborn, Michigan, the US on October 22, 2026 [Ali Harb/Al Jazeera]

Detroit, Michigan – The first question in the United States Senate debate in Michigan between Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed and his Republican rival Mike Rogers was about the issue that appears to matter most to voters – the economy.

El-Sayed quickly drew a contrast between himself and Rogers, who is backed by US President Donald Trump. It was not about interest rates, taxes, or trade policy. It was about the US-Israel war on Iran .

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“Right now, the cost of gas, the cost of groceries, it all really goes back to this war in Iran,” the progressive Democrat said on Wednesday.

“We need a War Powers Resolution rather than a senator who wants to stand hip-to-hip with Donald Trump on this war that made no sense when it started and certainly makes no sense now.”

El-Sayed was referring to legislative efforts to curb Trump’s ability to continue the eight-month conflict .

Across Michigan, Democrats are emphasising their opposition to the war to woo voters stung by rising gas and grocery prices.

“The war in Iran is a kitchen table issue,” said Jonathan Guyer, programme director at the Institute for Global Affairs (IGA).

“Voters don’t often rank foreign policy as their top issue, but I think it’s so interwoven with the economy right now that essentially foreign policy is the economy.”

IGA released a survey last month suggesting that 60 percent of potential voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the war. More alarmingly for Republicans, an overwhelming majority of respondents – 81 percent – agreed that the conflict has raised the cost of living.

Higher cost of living

Almost immediately after Israel and the US started attacking Iran on February 28, Tehran began disrupting the flow of energy products through the Strait of Hormuz – sending oil and gas prices skyrocketing.

In the US, the price of diesel – which is used to power heavy machinery, including heavy trucks that ship consumer goods across the country – has reached record highs over the past weeks.

Likewise, petrol or gasoline has become less affordable. Average Americans feel that uptick firsthand almost daily at the gas pump.

The average price of one gallon (3.8 litres) of petrol has gone from less than $3 before the war to more than $4.27 as of Thursday, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA).

The increased cost of energy and transportation has trickled down to the entire economy, fuelling inflation at a time when affordability had become one of the key issues in US electoral politics.

Trump and his allies have argued that the war was necessary to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

But before the war, Trump himself had said repeatedly that Iran’s nuclear programme had been “obliterated” by the June 2025 US strikes against the country’s uranium enrichment facilities.

And US intelligence officials have testified to Congress that they have no evidence that Iran is building a nuclear bomb.

Rogers, the Michigan Senate candidate, pushed to defend the war during the debate on Wednesday.

“You want to pay $8 [for] a gallon of gas, let Iran get a nuclear weapon. You lose control of that whole region,” he said.

At the same time, Rogers has also called for an end to the conflict.

In a recent campaign commercial filmed in a grocery store , the Republican candidate said, “The war with Iran needs to end, and end quickly.”

The position is echoed by other Republicans in tough House and Senate races.

In neighbouring Ohio, Senator Jon Husted has called for a “quick” end to the war as well. In Iowa, Congresswoman Ashley Hinson, who is running for the Senate, said she told Trump that the conflict should come to an “immediate and successful end”. In Maine, Senator Susan Collins has highlighted her vote in favour of several War Powers Resolutions.

Still, Trump, who is the leader of the Republican Party, has suggested that he may renew all-out fighting with Iran after the midterm vote next month, and he has promoted the war as a historic success.

“I think it’s one of the greatest things we’ve done. We’ve stopped Iran from having a nuclear weapon,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday.

“It’s one of the best things that we’ve done, and it took a lot of courage to do it because no other president was willing to do it.”

‘Death sentence for American economy’

Despite the overall unpopularity of the war, most Republicans continue to support it.

A Pew Research Center poll released earlier this month showed that 63 percent of Republican respondents said they approve of Trump’s handling of the conflict.

The IGA survey, taken in August, put the number at 74 percent. But only 34 percent of Republican respondents said they “strongly approve” of Trump’s handling of the war – down from 40 percent in April.

Guyer suggested that the lack of enthusiastic support for the war in the Republican base may hurt the party in the upcoming elections.

“It means that Republicans aren’t necessarily walking away from the president, but their support for him has a lot less conviction,” he told Al Jazeera.

“That could have implications if they actually show up to vote [and] if they are going to be involved in campaigning.”

With the elections less than two weeks away, it’s apparent that the Democrats see the war as an Achilles heel for Republicans, and they are invoking the conflict incessantly to undermine Trump-backed candidates all over the country.

Democratic Senator Chris Murphy addresses Abdul El-Sayed supporters at a debate watch party in Dearborn, Michigan, the US, October 21 [Ali Harb/Al Jazeera]

At a Senate debate watch party attended by dozens of El-Sayed’s supporters in Detroit on Wednesday, Al Jazeera asked Democratic Senator Chris Murphy – who recently returned from a visit to the Middle East – about the war. His answer was all about the US economy, not the geopolitics of the region.

“Well, diesel prices here in Detroit are already above $6 a gallon, and they’re going to go higher if this war restarts. Mike Rogers just said in the debate that he’s going to support the war, which is basically a death sentence for the American economy,” Murphy told Al Jazeera.

“There’s a big choice for Michigan voters to make here. If you want this war to continue for another year, if you want gas prices to climb to $8 a gallon, vote for Mike Rogers. If you want the war to end, if you want prices to come down, then vote for Abdul El-Sayed .”

民主党人将这场冲突定性为住房负担能力问题，以此批评特朗普支持的共和党候选人。

2026年10月22日，美国密歇根州迪尔伯恩市一家加油站的告示牌显示汽油价格。[阿里·哈布/半岛电视台]

密歇根州底特律——在密歇根州举行的美国参议院辩论中，民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德和他的共和党对手迈克·罗杰斯提出的第一个问题，似乎是选民最关心的问题——经济。

埃尔-赛义德迅速将自己与罗杰斯（后者得到了美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的支持）区分开来。这并非关乎利率、税收或贸易政策，而是关乎美以对伊朗的战争。

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列表 4/4：成本上涨和预算紧缩令美国人在中期选举前倍感压力

“现在，汽油价格、食品杂货价格，这一切都与伊朗战争息息相关，”这位进步派民主党人周三表示。

“我们需要的是一项战争权力决议，而不是一位想要在这场战争上与唐纳德·特朗普并肩作战的参议员。这场战争从一开始就毫无意义，现在更是如此。”

埃尔-赛义德指的是旨在限制特朗普继续这场持续八个月冲突的能力的立法努力。

在密歇根州各地，民主党人都在强调他们反对这场战争，以争取那些因汽油和食品价格上涨而感到不满的选民的支持。

“伊朗战争是关乎民生的问题，”全球事务研究所 (IGA) 项目主任乔纳森·盖尔 (Jonathan Guyer) 说。

“选民通常不会把外交政策列为首要议题，但我认为它现在与经济紧密相连，从本质上讲，外交政策就是经济。”

IGA上个月发布的一项调查显示，60%的潜在选民不赞成特朗普对战争的处理方式。更令共和党人担忧的是，绝大多数受访者（81%）都认为这场冲突推高了生活成本。

生活成本较高

2月28日，以色列和美国开始攻击伊朗后不久，德黑兰就开始扰乱霍尔木兹海峡的能源产品运输，导致石油和天然气价格飙升。

在美国，柴油价格（用于驱动重型机械，包括向全国各地运输消费品的重型卡车）在过去几周达到了历史新高。

同样，汽油价格也变得更加昂贵。普通美国民众几乎每天都能在加油站真切感受到这种价格上涨。

据美国汽车协会（AAA）称，战前每加仑（3.8升）汽油的平均价格不到3美元，而截至周四，这一价格已超过4.27美元。

能源和交通成本的增加已经波及到整个经济，加剧了通货膨胀，而此时，消费能力已成为美国选举政治中的一个关键问题。

特朗普及其盟友辩称，这场战争是必要的，目的是阻止伊朗获得核武器。

但在战争爆发前，特朗普本人曾多次表示，伊朗的核计划已被美国在 2025 年 6 月对该国铀浓缩设施的打击“摧毁”。

美国情报官员已向国会作证，称他们没有证据表明伊朗正在制造核弹。

密歇根州参议员候选人罗杰斯在周三的辩论中极力为这场战争辩护。

他说：“你想花8美元买一加仑汽油，那就让伊朗拥有核武器。你会失去对整个地区的控制。”

与此同时，罗杰斯也呼吁结束冲突。

在最近一段于一家杂货店拍摄的竞选广告中，这位共和党候选人表示：“与伊朗的战争必须结束，而且要尽快结束。”

在竞争激烈的众议院和参议院选举中，其他共和党人也持相同立场。

在邻近的俄亥俄州，参议员乔恩·赫斯特德也呼吁“尽快”结束战争。在爱荷华州，正在竞选参议员的众议员阿什利·欣森表示，她已告知特朗普，这场冲突应该“立即成功结束”。在缅因州，参议员苏珊·柯林斯强调了她曾投票支持多项战争权力决议。

不过，作为共和党领袖的特朗普暗示，他可能会在下个月的中期选举后重新与伊朗全面开战，并且他还将这场战争宣传为一次历史性的胜利。

“我认为这是我们做过的最伟大的事情之一。我们阻止了伊朗拥有核武器，”特朗普周三告诉记者。

“这是我们做过的最棒的事情之一，而且需要很大的勇气才能做到，因为没有其他总统愿意这样做。”

“美国经济的死刑判决”

尽管这场战争总体上不得人心，但大多数共和党人仍然支持它。

皮尤研究中心本月早些时候公布的一项民意调查显示，63%的共和党受访者表示他们赞成特朗普对这场冲突的处理方式。

IGA在8月份进行的调查显示，这一比例为74%。但只有34%的共和党受访者表示他们“强烈赞成”特朗普对战争的处理方式——低于4月份的40%。

盖尔认为，共和党基本盘对战争缺乏热情支持，可能会在即将到来的选举中损害该党。

“这意味着共和党人未必要抛弃总统，但他们对他的支持力度已经大大减弱了，”他告诉半岛电视台。

“如果他们真的出来投票，或者参与竞选活动，这可能会产生影响。”

距离选举不到两周，很明显，民主党人将这场战争视为共和党人的软肋，他们不断援引这场冲突来破坏特朗普在全国各地支持的候选人。

10月21日，美国密歇根州迪尔伯恩市，民主党参议员克里斯·墨菲在辩论观看派对上向阿卜杜勒·埃尔·赛义德的支持者发表讲话。[阿里·哈布/半岛电视台]

周三，在底特律举行的一场参议院辩论观看会上，数十名埃尔-赛义德的支持者出席了活动。半岛电视台就战争问题采访了民主党参议员克里斯·墨菲——他最近刚从中东访问归来。墨菲的回答完全围绕美国经济，而非该地区的地缘政治。

“底特律的柴油价格已经超过每加仑6美元，如果这场战争重启，价格还会更高。迈克·罗杰斯在辩论中表示他将支持这场战争，这基本上等于判了美国经济死刑，”墨菲告诉半岛电视台。

“密歇根州的选民们面临着一个重大的选择。如果你希望这场战争再持续一年，如果你希望汽油价格上涨到每加仑8美元，那就投票给迈克·罗杰斯。如果你希望结束这场战争，如果你希望油价下降，那就投票给阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德。”