What to know as Brazil prepares for tense presidential run-off

Polls show leftist incumbent Lula closing gap on right-wing rival Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of second round of voting.

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, left, and right-wing presidential candidate Senator Flavio Bolsonaro will once again face-off in a run-off election on Sunday [File: Evaristo Sa, Gledston Tavares/AFP]

Voters in Brazil are headed to the polls for the second time in one month, as Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva square off in a run-off election to decide who will hold the presidency for the next four years.

While Bolsonaro outperformed expectations during the first round of voting on October 4, when he beat Lula by less than two percentage points but failed to secure the majority needed to avoid a run-off, the leftist president has sought to rally supporters ahead of the second round.

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The vote on Sunday will decide whether Brazil joins a growing list of countries across Latin America that have handed victories to far-right candidates promising closer ties with the United States, a hard hand on crime and insecurity, and market-friendly economic policies.

Brazil under Lula has emerged as a key holdout against that shift, and a Bolsonaro victory on Sunday would galvanise conservatives in the region seeking to extend their winning streak to the largest country in Latin America.

When is the second round of voting?

The run-off will take place on October 25, 2026.

What happened during the first round?

The first round on October 4 saw Bolsonaro win 47 percent of the vote compared with just more than 45 percent for Lula, with the remainder of the votes distributed among several largely conservative candidates who did not advance to the next round.

While most polls had anticipated a close race that would go to a run-off, Lula had been slightly favoured to win the first round of voting. While Bolsonaro’s margin of victory was small, his overperformance indicated a level of enduring appeal for the political right that caught many Lula supporters off guard.

In addition to Bolsonaro’s success, even as his father, former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, serves a 27-year prison sentence for his involvement in a coup plot following his loss to Lula in 2022, right-wing candidates also racked up wins in legislative races across the country.

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva , simply referred to as Lula, is the incumbent president and the candidate for the Workers Party, or PT.

His time in office has been defined by an effort to pair political democracy with material improvement for the country’s poor and efforts to build ties between developing, non-Western countries on the global stage .

The 80-year-old is seeking his fourth, non-consecutive term, hoping that his record of popularity and support for social programmes, credited by supporters with transforming the country, will help stave off a Bolsonaro win.

Lula clinched a third term in 2022, marking a dramatic comeback following a stint in prison based on corruption charges that were later overturned following revelations of prosecutorial impropriety.

But a highly polarised political landscape has hindered Lula’s ability to usher in ambitious and sweeping reforms during his third term.

Notable successes, such as sharp drops in unemployment and poverty and tackling deforestation in the Amazon rainforest, have been countered by rising household indebtedness that has strained families across the country.

A corruption scandal centring on disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro has also implicated powerful figures and institutions across the political spectrum, including Bolsonaro himself as well as several members of the country’s Supreme Court, a target of right-wing ire for the conviction and sentencing of the elder Bolsonaro.

Who is Flavio Bolsonaro?

Senator Flavio Bolsonaro is running as the candidate of the right-wing Liberal Party.

The 45-year-old has emerged as the de facto leader of the country’s political right, filling a role previously held by his father before his conviction for a plot to remain in power despite his loss to Lula in 2022.

The younger Bolsonaro has sought to project a more polished image than his father while pledging continuity with many of his beliefs and policy priorities and promising to fight for his release from prison if elected.

He has pledged a militarised approach towards crime and insecurity posed by organised gangs in close partnership with the administration of United States President Donald Trump, who has sought to expand US military involvement across Latin America through ties with right-wing allies in the name of combatting crime.

Bolsonaro has also promised to rein in inflation and government spending, with an adviser stating that he would implement a debt ceiling if elected.

In the days after the first round, Bolsonaro has said he would “redemocratise” Brazil by reforming the constitution. The constitution was put in place after Brazil’s return to democracy in the 1980s, and Bolsonaro’s father has long expressed open nostalgia for the dictatorship period. There’s heavy speculation that Bolsonaro could be seeking to reform the judiciary, after his father’s legal setbacks. He has also promised to restore tax cuts for the events sector.

What has happened since the first round?

While many members of the PT were despondent following Bolsonaro’s first-round victory, Lula quickly urged his supporters to rally for the run-off and threw himself into campaigning.

He has also taken credit for his party’s long-sought constitutional amendment to reduce the six-day work week and promised free public transport on weekends.

Pro-Lula demonstrations in cities across the country have attracted millions of people, helping galvanise the president’s voters and cut into Bolsonaro’s lead. Bolsonaro has held his own rallies, hoping to capitalise on momentum and consolidate support from other conservative parties.

The two candidates held a combative debate on October 18, exchanging insults and accusing each other of corruption.

Questions of outside intervention have also been a theme in the campaign’s closing days, with US social media giant Meta facing allegations that it restricted pro-Lula activity online in a bid to support Bolsonaro.

Concerns about foreign interference, in particular from the US, have loomed over the campaign since the beginning.

The Trump administration has repeatedly sought to intervene in Brazilian politics, previously introducing steep tariffs and penalties against judicial officials in a bid to have the case against the elder Bolsonaro tossed out and mirroring rhetoric on the Brazilian right to cast doubt on the reliability of the country’s voting system.

Trump has himself used false claims of widespread fraud to ignore unfavourable election results, and observers have expressed concern that the US could throw its support behind Bolsonaro based on such claims even if he were to lose the race.

After his victory in the first round, Bolsonaro emerged as the race’s de facto frontrunner. But polls continue to show a close race, with Lula cutting into Bolsonaro’s lead but continuing to trail within the margin of error.

Speculation that Bolsonaro might pull ahead decisively following the first round, after other conservative candidates failed to advance to the run-off, has not yet appeared in new polls.

A Nexus poll released on Monday showed Bolsonaro winning 46.5 percent of the vote in the second round, with Lula taking 45.9 percent. A poll from the previous week had shown Bolsonaro with 47.9 percent and Lula with 45.1 percent.

Another poll by AtlasIntel and Bloomberg, also released on Monday, showed Bolsonaro with 49.8 percent versus 47.6 percent for Lula. An October 9 poll had shown Bolsonaro with 51.1 percent and Lula with 45.7.

A Quaest poll released on October 21 showed Bolsonaro’s lead continuing to drop, with Lula winning 44 percent and Bolsonaro 45 percent.

民调显示，左翼现任总统卢拉在第二轮投票前正在缩小与右翼竞争对手弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗之间的差距。

巴西总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦（左）和右翼总统候选人弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗参议员将于周日再次进行第二轮投票。[图片：Evaristo Sa, Gledston Tavares/AFP]

巴西选民将在一个月内第二次前往投票站，参议员弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗和总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦将进行第二轮投票，以决定谁将担任未来四年的总统。

尽管博索纳罗在 10 月 4 日的第一轮投票中表现超出预期，以不到两个百分点的优势击败卢拉，但未能获得避免第二轮投票所需的多数票，这位左翼总统仍在第二轮投票前努力争取支持者。

列表 1/3：为什么社交媒体已成为巴西总统竞选中的一个选举议题

列表 2/3：卢拉和博索纳罗在巴西首场总统决选辩论中激烈交锋

卢拉挑战博索纳罗在选举前公布个人记录（共3条记录，此为第3条）

周日的投票将决定巴西是否会加入拉丁美洲越来越多的国家行列，这些国家都将胜利拱手让给了极右翼候选人，这些候选人承诺与美国建立更紧密的联系，严厉打击犯罪和不安全现象，并推行亲市场的经济政策。

在卢拉的领导下，巴西已成为抵制这种转变的关键堡垒，博索纳罗周日的胜利将激励该地区的保守派，他们希望将胜利的势头延续到拉丁美洲最大的国家。

第二轮投票何时举行？

决选将于2026年10月25日举行。

第一轮发生了什么？

10 月 4 日的第一轮投票中，博索纳罗赢得了 47% 的选票，而卢拉的得票率略高于 45%，其余选票则分配给了几位未能晋级下一轮的保守派候选人。

尽管大多数民调都预测选情胶着，需要进行第二轮投票，但卢拉在第一轮投票中略占优势。虽然博索纳罗的胜选优势不大，但他超出预期的表现表明，右翼政治势力拥有持久的吸引力，这让许多卢拉的支持者措手不及。

除了博索纳罗的成功之外，尽管他的父亲，前极右翼总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗，因参与2022年败给卢拉后发动的政变阴谋而被判处27年监禁，但右翼候选人在全国各地的立法选举中也取得了胜利。

路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦（简称卢拉）是现任总统，也是劳工党（PT）的候选人。

他的执政时期以努力将政治民主与改善国家贫困人口的物质生活相结合，以及努力在国际舞台上建立发展中国家和非西方国家之间的联系为标志。

这位 80 岁高龄的老人正在寻求他的第四个任期（并非连续任期），他希望自己广受欢迎以及对社会项目的支持（支持者认为这些项目改变了国家）能够帮助阻止博索纳罗获胜。

2022年，卢拉成功连任第三届总统，戏剧性地重返政坛。此前，他因腐败指控入狱服刑，但后来由于检方不当行为的曝光，这些指控被推翻。

但高度两极分化的政治格局阻碍了卢拉在其第三个任期内推行雄心勃勃、影响深远的改革。

尽管取得了显著成就，例如失业率和贫困率大幅下降，以及解决了亚马逊雨林的森林砍伐问题，但不断上升的家庭债务抵消了这些成就，给全国各地的家庭带来了压力。

以声名狼藉的银行家丹尼尔·沃卡罗为中心的腐败丑闻也牵涉到政治光谱中的许多有权势的人物和机构，包括博尔索纳罗本人以及该国最高法院的几名成员。最高法院因对老博尔索纳罗的定罪和判刑而成为右翼愤怒的目标。

弗拉维奥·博索纳罗是谁？

参议员弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗是右翼自由党的候选人。

这位 45 岁的男子已成为该国右翼政治的实际领导人，填补了他父亲此前担任的职位。他的父亲因密谋在 2022 年败给卢拉后仍继续掌权而被定罪。

小博索纳罗力求展现比其父更加圆滑的形象，同时承诺延续其父的许多信念和政策重点，并保证如果当选，将为父亲的获释而战。

他承诺将采取军事化手段打击有组织犯罪团伙造成的犯罪和不安全状况，并与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的政府密切合作。特朗普以打击犯罪为名，寻求通过与右翼盟友建立联系，扩大美国在拉丁美洲的军事介入。

博索纳罗还承诺控制通货膨胀和政府支出，一位顾问表示，如果当选，他将实施债务上限。

首轮投票结束后，博索纳罗表示，他将通过改革宪法来“重新民主化”巴西。这部宪法是在巴西上世纪80年代恢复民主后制定的，而博索纳罗的父亲长期以来一直公开怀念独裁时期。外界普遍猜测，鉴于其父在法律诉讼中遭遇挫折，博索纳罗可能正寻求改革司法系统。他还承诺恢复对会展行业的税收减免。

第一轮之后发生了什么？

尽管博索纳罗在第一轮投票中获胜后，劳工党的许多成员都感到沮丧，但卢拉迅速敦促他的支持者们团结起来参加第二轮投票，并全身心投入到竞选活动中。

他还声称，他领导的政党长期以来一直寻求修改宪法，将每周工作六天缩短，并承诺周末提供免费公共交通。

全国各地城市的支持卢拉的示威活动吸引了数百万人参与，这有助于激励总统的支持者，并缩小与博索纳罗的差距。博索纳罗也举行了自己的集会，希望借此势头巩固其他保守党派的支持。

10月18日，两位候选人进行了一场激烈的辩论，互相辱骂并指责对方腐败。

在竞选的最后几天，外部干预的问题也成为一个主题，美国社交媒体巨头 Meta 面临指控，称其限制了支持卢拉的在线活动，以支持博索纳罗。

从竞选开始之初，就一直笼罩着外国干预，特别是来自美国的干预的担忧。

特朗普政府曾多次试图干预巴西政治，此前曾对司法官员征收高额关税和惩罚，试图驳回针对老博索纳罗的案件，并效仿巴西右翼的言论，质疑该国投票制度的可靠性。

特朗普本人曾利用广泛的舞弊虚假指控来无视不利的选举结果，观察人士表示担忧，即使博索纳罗输掉选举，美国也可能基于此类指控而支持他。

博索纳罗在首轮投票中获胜后，实际上已成为领跑者。但民调显示选情依然胶着，卢拉虽然缩小了与博索纳罗的差距，但仍在误差范围内。

此前有猜测称，在其他保守派候选人未能晋级第二轮投票后，博索纳罗可能会在第一轮投票后取得决定性领先，但新的民调尚未显示这种可能性。

周一公布的Nexus民调显示，博索纳罗在第二轮投票中以46.5%的得票率领先，卢拉获得45.9%的选票。而前一周的民调显示，博索纳罗的得票率为47.9%，卢拉为45.1%。

AtlasIntel 和彭博社周一发布的另一项民调显示，博索纳罗的支持率为 49.8%，卢拉为 47.6%。10 月 9 日的民调显示，博索纳罗的支持率为 51.1%，卢拉为 45.7%。

Quaest 于 10 月 21 日发布的民调显示，博索纳罗的领先优势继续缩小，卢拉的支持率为 44%，博索纳罗为 45%。