← 返回新闻首页

On The Brink Of Epic Fury Round Two?

Israeli Air Force operations, ship movements, ominous messaging and more point to the possibility that the war with Iran is about to erupt again.

TWZHoward Altman2026-10-23 17:19查看原文 ↗

Published Oct 23, 2026 5:19 PM EDT

U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack suggested on Friday that the U.S. could strike Iran as early as this weekend. His statement caps a week of growing speculation about whether America and Israel could resume major attacks on the Islamic Republic.

“Could there be a strike this weekend? Absolutely,” Barrack told online commentator Mario Nawfal when asked to explain the end game of efforts to seek a diplomatic resolution. “The president is very clear. He’s open and available and accessible to a deal. And we’ve been at the table for months and months and months… the nuclear proliferation and where we go with the enrichment and all those things are, are details, the punctuation in the chapter that needs to be finished.”

🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: AMB. TOM BARRACK WARNS U.S. STRIKE COULD HAPPEN THIS WEEKEND I asked Trump's Special Envoy, Tom Barrack: “Could there be a strike on this this weekend? His answer was direct: "Absolutely.” Amb. Barrack laid out exactly where things stand with Iran right now.… pic.twitter.com/upe7UlgGvb — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) October 23, 2026

Asked about Barrack’s comments regarding the potential timing of a strike on Iran, President Donald Trump told reporters that the ambassador “is a powerful man, I guess. If that’s the case, I don’t know anything about it.”

Q: Your ambassador to Türkiye said that "absolutely" there could be a strike on Iran this weekend. Trump: He is a powerful man, I guess. I don't know anything about it. pic.twitter.com/uDAqSYUocJ — Clash Report (@clashreport) October 23, 2026

Q: Your ambassador to Türkiye said that "absolutely" there could be a strike on Iran this weekend. Trump: He is a powerful man, I guess. I don't know anything about it. pic.twitter.com/uDAqSYUocJ

Speculation about a return to hostilities was sparked earlier this week after heavy activity of fighter aircraft was reported over Iraq.

Israeli Fighter Jets Simulate Possible ATTACK on Iran Over Iraq Around 10 Israeli fighter jets reportedly flew through Syrian airspace into Iraq tonight, conducting simulated attack runs. Similar flights have occurred for DAYS as Iran remains on HIGH ALERT over a possible… pic.twitter.com/nK0c24vFP2 — Ryan Rozbiani (@RyanRozbiani) October 19, 2026

On Wednesday, Axios reported that dozens of Israeli fighters flew through Syrian and Iraqi airspace toward the border with Iran on Monday as part of a “power projection” exercise.

The sorties, extending some 800 miles away from Israel proper, were launched after U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made a surprise trip to Israel earlier this week to meet with that country’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, reportedly to discuss new plans to attack Iran .

“Israel notified the U.S. in advance and described the operation as a training exercise [on Monday] intended for ‘power projection’ and aimed at deterring Iran from launching attacks against Israel ahead of the elections [in that country],” according to Axios . “Dozens of fighter jets and refueling aircraft” were involved.

One of the IAF’s KC-707s seen refueling an F-15. (IAF)

After the Axios story came out, there were unconfirmed reports of additional major Israeli military air activity on Wednesday night.

Intense IAF fighter jet activity is now being reported over Iraq, especially on the border with Iran. Meanwhile, continuous takeoffs are taking place from the Ramon, Nevatim, and Ovda airbases. https://t.co/c35xIbtAAu — MoloMonitor 🇮🇹 (@MoloWarMonitor) October 21, 2026

The last known Israeli strikes on Iran came in June. The U.S. military officially concluded major combat operations against the Islamic Republic in May, but tit-for-tat strikes have continued since then as part of an ongoing blockade of Iranian ports. For its part, Iran has continued to launch strikes on commercial vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz, which continues to have major impacts on global energy markets despite U.S. efforts to safeguard the flow of tanker ships out of the Persian Gulf.

As TWZ editor-in-chief Tyler Rogoway pointed out on X Wednesday evening, the commotion over Iraq was likely practice runs and would be part of the prelude to any major new air operation targeting Iran. Conducting sorties relatively close to the Iranian border would also offer opportunities to gain valuable intelligence about the current state and disposition of that country’s air defenses.

“Dry runs are important for such a large integrated operation,” Rogoway noted. “They can be scaled as the operation gets closer. Getting a large part of the intended force up and in position can really help with the chances of mission success if the actual order to execute is given. So many moving parts to align. Not great to find out any weak spots on night one of a new offensive.”

“Stimulating Iran’s air defenses is critical,” he added. “By Iran operating as if a full scale attack could be coming, their air defenses can be detected, categorized and geolocated. This is absolutely critical prior to a major air operation. Surveilling them during times of lower alert does not provide the same fidelity of actionable intelligence. Knowing where those threats are and how they are operating can mean the difference of life and death and/or will help standoff munitions make their way to their targets as those defenses can be suppressed, destroyed, or avoided entirely via careful mission planning.”

Couple things on the large scale tactical aircraft activity over the Middle East tonight: I don't have any info on this operation or if it truly has gone kinetic, but here is likely what is happening if not: 1.) Dry runs are important for such a large integrated operation. They… — Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) October 21, 2026

“U.S. officials said the Israelis knew that Iran’s air defense systems would detect the sortie[s on Monday],” Axios ’ report also noted. “Some U.S. sources said they had the impression that Israel was hoping the Iranians would fire at the aircraft, providing a justification for launching strikes against Iran.”

TWZ cannot confirm this; however pushing Iran to react would not fit with the goals of a major exercise like this.

There have been other signs that a major new round of U.S. and/or Israeli strikes on Iran might be looming on the horizon. Fox News reported earlier this week that the Nimitz class aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and the rest of its carrier strike group, as well as the Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group carrying the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), were heading to the Middle East, citing unnamed U.S. officials.

“The ships will arrive in the Middle East by the end of November,” the officials said, according t o a post on X from Fox ’s Jennifer Griffin on Tuesday. “These new deployments will add about 10,000 sailors and Marines to the Middle East.”

Per @Liz_Friden The U.S. is sending the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit to the Middle East, two U.S. officials confirm to Fox News. The ships will arrive in the Middle East by the end of November, the officials said. These new… — Jennifer Griffin (@JenGriffinFNC) October 20, 2026

There have been indications of increased U.S. military air activity in the Middle East recently, as well. Observers have called particular significant influx of aerial refueling tankers to bases in the region, as well as in Europe, which would be critical to any new major air campaign .

US Tanker Fleet Update 21/OCT/2026 #IranWar‌ Overall numbers across CENTCOM and Europe have now stabilised back to the levels they were at back at the start of September, around 190-195. There are a few tankers dotted around at other sites temporarily (Glasgow Prestwick and… pic.twitter.com/taKi8op7Tv — DefenceGeek 🇬🇧 (@DefenceGeek) October 21, 2026

In addition, there are claims that Russia is evacuating its scientists from the Bushehr Nuclear Power plant and other Russians ahead of a potential new round of strikes. TWZ cannot independently verify this.

BREAKING: Russian airforce TU-134 used to evacuate high ranking personnel has just left Iran with its transponder off rumoured to be picking up Russian scientists from Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant. We saw similar evacuation flights before US strikes on Iran in February… pic.twitter.com/dFLvQvesNk — WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 (@WarMonitor3) October 23, 2026

The New York Times reported on Wednesday that the U.S. and Israeli militaries had “developed specific plans for renewed strikes against Iran after the American midterm elections,” citing U.S. officials and other people briefed on the deliberations.

Authorities in Washington and Jerusalem appear to be planning “a short but intensive operation” that would last between three and five days, the newspaper added. “The targets would likely include Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenal. Some officials say one more big round of attacks could push Iran’s economy over the brink and force the country to make diplomatic concessions after nearly eight months of conflict.”

Separately on Wednesday, NBC News also reported that the Pentagon and U.S. State Department were relocating personnel from bases and diplomatic facilities in the Middle East, amid the possibility of new strikes on Iran, as well as broader regional security concerns. The State Department subsequently pushed back on that report, saying that non-emergency U.S. government employees and dependents had only been directed to leave Saudi Arabia in response to attacks from Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen.

This is inaccurate. The U.S. Department of State issued an ordered departure for non-emergency U.S. government employees and their family members in Saudi Arabia only. Iranian-supported Houthis have increasingly engaged in hostilities against Saudi Arabia, including attacks on… https://t.co/yNrCwDcfIg — Tommy Pigott (@statedeptspox) October 21, 2026

A high-ranking Israel Defense Forces (IDF) official we spoke with said a new war with Iran is not a foregone conclusion.

“I would describe the situation as increasingly tense, with a real risk of renewed escalation,” the IDF official told us. “However, I would be cautious about concluding that another war is inevitable or that its timing can be reliably predicted.”

“The recent IAF [Israeli Air Force] activity is significant, as are the reported military preparations and the increasingly confrontational rhetoric from both Washington and Jerusalem,” he added. “But military readiness, deterrence, and operational planning do not necessarily mean that a final political decision to launch another campaign has been made.”

An Israeli Air Force (IAF) F-15I. (IAF) IAF

“We do not see any indications of a need to strike Iran before the election,” IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir also said during a recent closed-door meeting, according to Israeli media reports . At the same time, “if we determine that a strike on Iran is necessary, we will carry it out.”

“Iran is once again attempting to develop a nuclear bomb,” Israeli Prime Minister Netanyua also warned again this week, according to The Jerusalem Post . “My directive to the IDF, the Mossad, and the defense establishment… [is] to overthrow the regime in Iran.”

The IDF official who spoke also raised questions about the potential efficacy of any new major air campaign against Iran.

“Both Trump and Netanyahu have previously described the results of earlier rounds of fighting as a decisive, even total, victory, emphasizing the damage inflicted on Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities, its production and supply chains, and its nuclear infrastructure,” the official noted. “This raises an obvious question: If the results were as decisive as they claimed, what has changed to make another confrontation necessary now?”

“I believe we must recognize the limitations of trying to defeat a country like Iran through targeted killings and stand-off kinetic strikes alone,” he added. “Such operations can destroy infrastructure, eliminate key personnel, disrupt production, and delay military programs. They can impose significant costs on an adversary. But they do not necessarily eliminate the adversary’s strategic ambitions, prevent the regeneration of capabilities, or produce a durable political outcome.”

U.S. President Trump’s repeated threats to launch strikes on a very hardened Iranian facility known as Pickaxe Mountain have raised similar questions. The Pickaxe Mountain site is believed to be tied to Iran’s nuclear program, but is also arguably the hardest-to-reach target in the country , and has gone untouched in previous U.S. and Israeli operations.

CBS News reported last week that the White House and Pentagon “have prepared plans to use a Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb [MOAB] to hit military sites in Iran,” including Pickaxe Mountain, “if ordered by President Trump.” However, the 22,000-pound-class MOAB, also designated the GBU-43/B, is not a deep-penetrating munition, and it was not immediately clear from that story how the weapon might be employed. The bomb is also only known to be currently cleared for employment via C-130-type aircraft . It has only been used in combat once, in Afghanistan in 2017 , where the skies above were entirely permissive. You can read more about the targeting challenges specific to Pickaxe Mountain, and what options the U.S. military might have for halting, or at least degrading activity there, in a previous TWZ feature here .

MOAB’s use case would be limited against sites like Pickaxe Mountain. While its unique overpressure effects could harm any personnel openly exposed inside tunnel systems, it is unlikely to destroy or even heavily damage the hardened facilities themselves. It could cause damage to external support infrastructure and act as a psychological weapon in its own right, but it is not a bunker buster in any way.

Not what this weapon is really used for. Psychological effect, maybe https://t.co/hDWSXYKexr — Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) October 15, 2026

Not what this weapon is really used for. Psychological effect, maybe https://t.co/hDWSXYKexr

The puzzling leak about the MOAB may be part of the administration’s effort to use the media to try and compel Iran to negotiate. This has been a glaring pattern throughout the ebb and flow of this conflict and a common tactic used by the Trump administration.

Talking threatening plans against Iran here. They are always planning and have a slew of options. The leaks and sources are by and large fully aware what their marching orders are. It’s coordinated. A lever this admin pulls non stop right on cue. — Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) October 15, 2026

For its part, Iran is operating on the assumption that a U.S.-Israeli attack is a “certainty,” The Jerusalem Post reported on Wednesday, citing Iran’s Fars News Agency , a quasi-state media outlet affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). “The report, which cited a senior Iranian security official, added that Iran will consider U.S. politicians legitimate targets if such an attack involves the assassination of Iranian officials.”

The IRGC has also threatened to launch expanded retaliatory attacks on targets across the Middle East in response to any new waves of strikes.

As we noted earlier in this story, Iran continues to actively attack commercial shipping in and around the Strait of Hormuz. The official Iranian IRNA news agency reported that the IRGC Navy claimed that it recently struck four ships transferring oil cargoes in the northern Persian Gulf, while three other vessels suffered damage after striking mines west of the Strait of Hormuz.

While TWZ cannot independently verify those claims, the Ambrey maritime security firm said that the number of vessels damaged during Strait of Hormuz transits has “increased sharply” this month.

“During the two weeks from 3 to 16 October, the number rose to 11 and 13 vessels per week, respectively, compared with an average of three to four per week in the preceding weeks,” Ambrey senior analyst Daniel Mueller noted today in the company’s latest security assessment . “This increase coincided with an expansion of Iranian operations aimed at restricting transits deemed unauthorized, while the US continued to facilitate transits along the Omani coastline.”

On Oct. 9, “the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened to pursue and target vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian authorisation throughout the wider Gulf region,” Mueller added. “During October, incidents attributed to Iran involved merchant vessels off Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Sohar, Oman. Between 8 and 16 October, six merchant vessels – five tankers and one gas carrier – were damaged outside of the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, a tanker was damaged offshore Iraq on 20 October.”

Reports emerging earlier this week from The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post do say that oil exports from the Persian Gulf have returned to prewar levels thanks to U.S. efforts to safeguard tankers out of the region.

“Middle East oil flows, including shipments through Hormuz and alternative routes across the region, averaged more than 24 million barrels a day in the week through Oct. 18, surpassing prewar levels of 23.3 million,” according to the Journal , citing ship tracker Kpler. “Preliminary figures show Hormuz oil flows, including offshore transfers in the Gulf of Oman, came to around 14 million barrels a day on average for the same period, or 82% of prewar levels.”

From the @WSJ : “Persian Gulf oil exports have surpassed prewar levels, as an improvised shipping system under U.S. protection is helping tankers move oil through one of Iran’s fiercest waves of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.” https://t.co/SJo2jlUfew — Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) October 21, 2026

However, global energy oil markets continue to be under immense strain as a result of the ongoing fallout from the conflict with Iran, thanks in no small part to surging insurance costs for shipping companies. This has been further exacerbated now by Yemen’s Houthis expanding their attacks on oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, including a recent strike near the Shaybah oilfield . The Houthis are also exerting their own pressure shipping passing through the Bab Al Mandab Strait, a critical chokepoint that links the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

A Saudi-led coalition supporting Yemen’s internationally recognized government has been embroiled in an on-again-off-again conflict with the Houthis since 2014. Fighting with the Iranian-supported Yemeni militants in and around the Red Sea was inflamed last year as a by-product of Israel’s 12 Day War with Iran. The Houthis also retaliated with missile and drone attacks in support of Iran in the wake of U.S. and Israel launching their major operations against the regime in Tehran in February.

The U.S. government and the Houthis have been observing a tenuous ceasefire since May 2025 . This has continued despite the Yemeni miltants now imposing a blockade on the Bab Al Mandab Strait, and a new campaign of strikes on Saudi ships in the southern part of the Red Sea, as well as targeting critical energy terminals on that body of water and Saudi refineries. Iranian proxies have also struck the vital East-West pipeline that carries oil to the Red Sea to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. That line has reportedly since reopened after being shut down following a long-range drone attack.

The two sides have also been fighing battles across much of Yemen and the conflict between the two parties is ongoing.

“On Wednesday, two people were killed and two others injured by debris from intercepted drones near a processing plant at the Shaybah field, one of the biggest oilfields in Saudi Arabia,” The National noted . “Operations at the Shaybah field and its processing facilities remain unaffected, but the attack rattled markets again amid concerns about potential disruption to Saudi supply just as the Kingdom has largely restored its exports via the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.”

As a result, the per-barrel price of Brent crude has jumped to more than $114 as of Friday morning, according to OilPrice.com , the highest that it has been since May during intensified fighting between the U.S. and Iran.

In addition, Saudi Aramco has told staff to evacuate its Dhahran headquarters and work remotely, Reuters reported , citing six people with knowledge of the matter. The move came a day after two people were killed in an attack on a nearby airport. The order marked the first time Aramco had asked staff to evacuate its headquarters since the start of the Iran war, Reuters added.

The Houthis “caused extensive damage ⁠to the company’s headquarters earlier this month when they struck the building, with fire spreading across several floors,” the outlet explained.

Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have spurred Britain to commit to providing “defensive counter air missions to support the protection of Saudi cities and critical national infrastructure against aerial attack, using RAF Typhoon fighter jets,” Defense Secretary Wes Streeting said in a statement . “These aircraft will operate in a defensive role and will not conduct offensive strikes against the Houthis. The UK will provide an RAF A400M to support the movement of defense materiel within Saudi Arabia, alongside UK military advisers to support Saudi staff officers.”

“The continuing attacks from the Houthis on our ally Saudi Arabia are absolutely despicable,” Streeting said.

Sunset photo of Saudi Aramco’s headquarters. (Saudi Aramco) brigido alcayde

As we noted earlier in this story, the U.S. is continuing its naval blockade of Iranian ports.

U.S. Central Command said Thursday on X that its renewed naval blockade of Iranian ports, now in its 100th day, “has helped prevent Iran from exporting at least $25 billion worth of crude oil and constrained the IRGC’s ability to fund proxy militias, criminal networks, and terrorism. There have been no exports or imports to Iran by sea except for the humanitarian aid U.S. forces have allowed.”

Today marks 100 days since CENTCOM forces resumed America's steel wall naval blockade against Iran. This effort has helped prevent Iran from exporting at least $25 billion worth of crude oil and constrained the IRGC's ability to fund proxy militias, criminal networks, and… pic.twitter.com/DwiamYBdHY — U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) October 22, 2026

Regardless of the reasons for taking action against Iran, the IDF official suggested a new round of kinetic strikes might not achieve the desired effects.

For its part, Iran is operating on the assumption that a U.S.-Israeli attack is a “certainty,” the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-affiliated Fars News Agency reported, according to the Jerusalem Post .

“The report, which cited a senior Iranian security official, added that Iran will consider U.S. politicians legitimate targets if such an attack involves the assassination of Iranian officials,” the publication added.

The IRGC also announced that it was preparing to unveil a new weapon, which it dubbed the “Father of All Bombs,” in response to U.S. threats to use the most powerful conventional bomb in the American arsenal against Iran’s nuclear facilities, the Jerusalem Post also reported .

Officials, however, declined to offer any details about what kind of weapon it is, its power, whether it is operational or when it will be shown to the public, the Post noted.

In addition to the strategic and tactical issues in the region, the IDF official we spoke with raised concerns that “domestic political considerations may influence the rhetoric and decisions” of Prime Minister Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump. Israel is holding nationwide parliamentary elections on October 27 that could have significant domestic political ramifications . The same is true of mid-term elections in the United States in November.

“I cannot know their precise calculations, but the possibility that political incentives could affect decisions with such enormous strategic consequences should not be dismissed,” the IDF official cautioned. “With Israel’s elections approaching, I sincerely hope that Netanyahu will not make a decision with far-reaching consequences for the country’s security based, even partly, on immediate political considerations. The stakes are simply too high for military action to become a means of reshaping a domestic political narrative.”

Israeli Prime Minister and Likud Party leader Benjamin Netanyahu speaks to supporters during an election campaign event in a restaurant in Hatikva Market ahead of Israel’s general elections on October 27, 2026. (Photo by Amir Levy/Getty Images) Amir Levy

In a phone call with Trump recorded live on Monday and posted on his X account, Netanyahu thanked the American leader for his election endorsement and suggested future operations against Iran.

“Donald, we have a job to finish [in Iran]…and we’ll finish it together,” the Israeli leader told Trump. “We’ll finish it, and no one else will do it.”

בשיחה עם ידידי הנשיא טראמפ לאחר שהודיע על תמיכתו בי בבחירות. יחד אנחנו הולכים להסיר את האיום האיראני לתמיד! צאו להצביע מחל! pic.twitter.com/GuPEAPn0Tc — Benjamin Netanyahu – בנימין נתניהו (@netanyahu) October 19, 2026

בשיחה עם ידידי הנשיא טראמפ לאחר שהודיע על תמיכתו בי בבחירות. יחד אנחנו הולכים להסיר את האיום האיראני לתמיד! צאו להצביע מחל! pic.twitter.com/GuPEAPn0Tc

As for Trump, the President has previously said the war with Iran will end “immediately after the election” and has reportedly told aides he expects to resume strikes on the Islamic Republic after the midterms. Domestic U.S. polls show the ongoing conflict continues to be deeply unpopular with voters , who are also eager to see it concluded .

Speaking to reporters Thursday afternoon, Trump acknowledged that the Iran war could have a negative impact on Republican hopes for the midterms.

“Well in one way, they love it because I’m doing what should have been done by other presidents, and another way maybe they don’t,” Trump said. “It’s — there’s a price to pay, which I knew immediately when I did it, but we can’t let Iran have a nuclear weapon. I mean, in one way, people probably don’t love it, but many people, many great patriots, really love it. This should have been done a long time ago by other presidents. The Iran War, and we’ve knocked the hell out of them, and we may do it a little bit further. “

Q: How do you feel the Iran war impacted the midterm races? Trump: In one way, they love it. In another way, maybe they don't. There's a price to pay. pic.twitter.com/qtkE9M2vSQ — Clash Report (@clashreport) October 22, 2026

Q: How do you feel the Iran war impacted the midterm races? Trump: In one way, they love it. In another way, maybe they don't. There's a price to pay. pic.twitter.com/qtkE9M2vSQ

Later on Thursday, the American president said that: “We’re gonna have Iran finished very soon, one way or the other. It’s almost insignificant to me which way.”

U.S. President Donald Trump on Iran: "We're gonna have Iran finished very soon. one way or the other. It's almost insignificant to me which way. It's going to be done very soon, and your gasoline prices and your oil is going to come tumbling down." pic.twitter.com/vIGviqe8gi — Open Source Intel (@Osint613) October 23, 2026

While indicators are pointing to the U.S. and Israel at the very least in the very late stages of planning for new strikes against Iran, even if that doesn’t happen, the Middle East will remain a top concern. The ongoing threats to shipping and the escalating fighting between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia are having increasingly dire impacts on gas prices, which is spiking inflation, and causing heavy pressure on the global economy.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

Comments couldn’t be loaded. Please refresh the page.

发布于美国东部时间2026年10月23日下午5:19

美国驻土耳其大使汤姆·巴拉克周五暗示，美国最早可能在本周末对伊朗发动打击。此前一周，外界一直在猜测美国和以色列是否会恢复对伊朗的大规模袭击，巴拉克的这番言论也为这一猜测画上了句号。

“这周末会不会发生罢工？当然有可能，”巴拉克在被问及寻求外交解决的努力最终会走向何方时，对网络评论员马里奥·纳瓦尔说道。“总统的立场非常明确。他愿意达成协议，也愿意配合。我们已经在谈判桌上坐了几个月……核扩散问题，以及我们下一步的浓缩铀计划等等，都只是细节，是需要完成的篇章的结尾。”

🇺🇸🇮🇷 突发：汤姆·巴拉克大使警告称，美国可能在本周末发动袭击。我问特朗普的特使汤姆·巴拉克：“本周末会不会发动袭击？”他的回答很直接：“绝对有可能。”巴拉克大使详细阐述了目前伊朗局势的现状…… pic.twitter.com/upe7UlgGvb — Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) October 23, 2026

🇺🇸🇮🇷 突发：汤姆·巴拉克大使警告称，美国可能在本周末发动袭击。我问特朗普的特使汤姆·巴拉克：“本周末会不会发动袭击？”他的回答很直接：“绝对有可能。”巴拉克大使详细阐述了目前伊朗局势的现状…… pic.twitter.com/upe7UlgGvb

当被问及巴拉克关于可能对伊朗发动袭击时机的评论时，唐纳德·特朗普总统告诉记者，这位大使“我想是个很有权势的人。如果真是那样，我对此一无所知。”

问：您驻土耳其大使说，本周末“绝对”有可能对伊朗发动袭击。特朗普：他是个很有权势的人，我想。我对此一无所知。 pic.twitter.com/uDAqSYUocJ — Clash Report (@clashreport) October 23, 2026

问：您驻土耳其大使说，本周末“绝对”有可能对伊朗发动袭击。特朗普：他是个很有权势的人，我想。我对此一无所知。pic.twitter.com/uDAqSYUocJ

本周早些时候，有报道称伊拉克上空有大量战斗机活动，引发了人们对战争可能重燃的猜测。

以色列战机在伊拉克上空模拟对伊朗发动袭击据报道，今晚约有10架以色列战机飞越叙利亚领空进入伊拉克，进行了模拟攻击演习。类似的飞行已持续数日，伊朗仍对可能发生的袭击保持高度戒备…… pic.twitter.com/nK0c24vFP2 — Ryan Rozbiani (@RyanRozbiani) October 19, 2026

以色列战机在伊拉克上空模拟对伊朗发动袭击据报道，约10架以色列战机今晚飞越叙利亚领空进入伊拉克，进行了模拟攻击演习。类似的飞行已持续数日，伊朗仍对可能发生的袭击保持高度戒备…… pic.twitter.com/nK0c24vFP2

周三，Axios 报道称，周一，数十架以色列战斗机飞越叙利亚和伊拉克领空，向伊朗边境方向飞行，这是“力量投射”演习的一部分。

这些飞行任务的飞行范围延伸到距离以色列本土约 800 英里以外的地方。此前，美国国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯本周早些时候出人意料地访问了以色列，与该国总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡会面，据报道是为了讨论攻击伊朗的新计划。

据Axios报道，“以色列事先通知了美国，并将此次行动描述为一次训练演习，旨在‘投射力量’，并阻止伊朗在（该国）选举前对以色列发动袭击。” “数十架战斗机和加油机”参与了此次演习。

印度空军的一架KC-707加油机正在为一架F-15战斗机进行空中加油。（印度空军）

Axios 的报道发布后，有未经证实的报道称，周三晚上以色列进行了更多大规模的军事空中活动。

据报道，伊拉克上空，特别是与伊朗接壤的边境地区，出现了大量以色列空军战斗机活动。与此同时，拉蒙、内瓦提姆和奥夫达空军基地持续进行着飞机起飞。https://t.co/c35xIbtAAu — MoloMonitor 🇮🇹 (@MoloWarMonitor) October 21, 2026

据报道，伊拉克上空，特别是与伊朗接壤的边境地区，出现了大量以色列空军战斗机活动。与此同时，拉蒙、内瓦提姆和奥夫达空军基地持续进行着战斗机起飞。https://t.co/c35xIbtAAu

以色列最后一次对伊朗发动袭击是在6月。美国军方于5月正式结束了对伊朗的大规模作战行动，但此后双方仍持续进行针锋相对的袭击，以示对伊朗港口的封锁。与此同时，伊朗也继续袭击霍尔木兹海峡及其周边地区的商船，尽管美国努力保障油轮从波斯湾的通行，但这些袭击仍然对全球能源市场造成重大影响。

正如TWZ主编泰勒·罗戈韦周三晚间在X网站上指出的那样，伊拉克上空的骚动很可能是演习，并将作为任何针对伊朗的大规模新空袭行动的前奏。在相对靠近伊朗边境的地方进行飞行任务，也能提供获取有关该国当前防空力量状况和部署情况的宝贵情报的机会。

罗戈韦指出：“对于如此大规模的联合行动而言，演练至关重要。随着行动临近，演练规模可以相应扩大。如果能提前部署大部分预定兵力并使其就位，一旦正式下达执行命令，就能大大提高任务成功的几率。需要协调的环节太多了。在新一轮进攻的第一晚就发现任何薄弱环节，都不是好事。”

他补充道：“刺激伊朗的防空系统至关重要。通过让伊朗像随时可能遭受全面攻击一样运作，我们可以探测、分类并定位其防空系统。这在重大空袭行动之前绝对至关重要。在低警戒状态下对其进行监视无法提供同样精准的可操作情报。了解这些威胁的位置和运作方式可能意味着生死之别，并且/或者有助于防区外弹药击中目标，因为通过周密的任务计划，可以压制、摧毁或完全绕过这些防空系统。”

今晚中东上空的大规模战术飞机活动有几点需要说明：我目前没有关于此次行动的任何信息，也无法确定它是否真的已经进入实战阶段，但如果还没有进入实战阶段，以下情况可能与此有关：1）对于如此大规模的联合行动来说，演练至关重要。它们…… — Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) 2026年10月21日

今晚中东上空的大规模战术飞机活动有几点需要说明：我没有关于此次行动的任何信息，也不知道它是否真的已经进入实战阶段，但如果还没有进入实战阶段，以下情况可能与此有关：1）对于如此大规模的联合行动来说，演练至关重要。它们……

Axios的报道还指出，“美国官员表示，以色列方面知道伊朗的防空系统会在周一探测到这些飞行任务。” “一些美国消息人士称，他们感觉以色列希望伊朗方面向这些飞机开火，从而为对伊朗发动袭击提供借口。”

TWZ无法证实这一点；然而，促使伊朗做出反应并不符合此类大型演习的目标。

种种迹象表明，美国和/或以色列可能即将对伊朗发动新一轮大规模打击。福克斯新闻本周早些时候援引未具名的美国官员报道称，尼米兹级航空母舰“西奥多·罗斯福”号及其航母打击群的其他舰艇，以及搭载第13海军陆战队远征部队（MEU）的“马金岛”号两栖戒备群，正前往中东。

据福克斯新闻记者詹妮弗·格里芬周二在X网站上发布的消息，官员们表示：“这些舰艇将于11月底抵达中东。这些新的部署将为中东地区增加约1万名水兵和海军陆战队员。”

据@Liz_Friden报道，两名美国官员向福克斯新闻证实，美国将派遣“西奥多·罗斯福”号航母打击群和第13海军陆战队远征部队前往中东。官员们表示，这些舰艇将于11月底抵达中东。这些新的…… — Jennifer Griffin (@JenGriffinFNC) 2026年10月20日

据@Liz_Friden报道，两名美国官员向福克斯新闻证实，美国将派遣“西奥多·罗斯福”号航母打击群和第13海军陆战队远征部队前往中东。官员们表示，这些舰艇将于11月底抵达中东。这些新的……

最近也有迹象表明，美国在中东的军事空中活动有所增加。观察人士指出，大量空中加油机涌入该地区以及欧洲的基地，这对任何新的大规模空袭行动都至关重要。

美国油轮舰队最新动态 2026年10月21日 #伊朗战争‌ 中央司令部和欧洲的油轮总数已稳定回升至9月初的水平，约为190-195艘。目前有少量油轮暂时部署在其他地点（格拉斯哥普雷斯蒂克机场等）。 pic.twitter.com/taKi8op7Tv — DefenceGeek 🇬🇧 (@DefenceGeek) 2026年10月21日

美国油轮舰队最新动态 2026年10月21日 #伊朗战争目前，中央司令部和欧洲的油轮总数已稳定回升至9月初的水平，约为190-195艘。另有少量油轮暂时部署在其他地点（例如格拉斯哥普雷斯蒂克机场等）。 pic.twitter.com/taKi8op7Tv

此外，还有传言称，俄罗斯正在从布什尔核电站撤离科学家和其他俄罗斯人员，以应对可能的新一轮打击。TWZ无法独立核实这一说法。

突发：一架俄罗斯空军的图-134运输机刚刚离开伊朗，其应答器处于关闭状态，据传此举是为了从布什尔核电站接走俄罗斯科学家。我们曾在2月份美国空袭伊朗之前看到过类似的撤离航班…… pic.twitter.com/dFLvQvesNk — WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 (@WarMonitor3) October 23, 2026

突发：一架俄罗斯空军的图-134运输机刚刚离开伊朗，其应答器处于关闭状态，据传此举是为了从布什尔核电站接走俄罗斯科学家。我们曾在2月份美国空袭伊朗之前看到过类似的撤离航班…… pic.twitter.com/dFLvQvesNk

《纽约时报》周三报道称，美国和以色列军方“制定了在美国中期选举后对伊朗再次发动袭击的具体计划”，该报道援引了美国官员和其他了解相关讨论的人士的话。

该报补充说，华盛顿和耶路撒冷当局似乎正在计划一次“短暂但密集的行动”，预计持续三到五天。“目标可能包括伊朗的能源基础设施、核设施以及导弹和无人机武库。一些官员表示，再来一轮大规模袭击可能会使伊朗经济崩溃，并迫使该国在经历了近八个月的冲突后做出外交让步。”

周三，NBC新闻另报道称，鉴于可能对伊朗发动新的袭击以及更广泛的地区安全担忧，五角大楼和美国国务院正在将人员从位于中东的基地和外交机构撤离。随后，国务院否认了该报道，称只有非紧急的美国政府雇员及其家属被指示离开沙特阿拉伯，以应对也门胡塞武装（伊朗支持）发动的袭击。

这是不准确的。美国国务院仅下令沙特阿拉伯境内非紧急的美国政府雇员及其家属撤离。伊朗支持的胡塞武装日益加剧对沙特阿拉伯的敌对行动，包括袭击…… https://t.co/yNrCwDcfIg — Tommy Pigott (@statedeptspox) 2026年10月21日

这是不准确的。美国国务院仅下令沙特阿拉伯境内非紧急的美国政府雇员及其家属撤离。伊朗支持的胡塞武装日益加剧对沙特阿拉伯的敌对行动，包括袭击…… https://t.co/yNrCwDcfIg

我们采访的一位以色列国防军高级官员表示，与伊朗爆发新战争并非板上钉钉。

“我认为局势日益紧张，存在再次升级的切实风险，”这位以色列国防军官员告诉我们。“但是，我不会就此断定另一场战争不可避免，或者能够准确预测战争爆发的时间。”

他补充说：“以色列空军近期的活动意义重大，据报道的军事准备以及华盛顿和耶路撒冷日益强硬的言辞也同样重要。但军事准备、威慑和作战计划并不一定意味着已经做出了发动另一场战争的最终政治决定。”

一架以色列空军（IAF）F-15I战斗机。（IAF）以色列空军

据以色列媒体报道，以色列国防军总参谋长埃亚尔·扎米尔中将在最近的一次闭门会议上表示：“我们没有看到任何迹象表明需要在选举前打击伊朗。”与此同时，“如果我们认定有必要打击伊朗，我们将采取行动。”

据《耶路撒冷邮报》报道，以色列总理内塔尼亚本周再次警告称，“伊朗正试图再次研制核武器”。他还表示，“我对以色列国防军、摩萨德和国防机构的指示是……推翻伊朗政权。”

这位发言的以色列国防军官员还对任何针对伊朗的新大规模空袭行动的潜在效果提出了质疑。

这位官员指出：“特朗普和内塔尼亚胡此前都曾将前几轮冲突的结果描述为决定性的、甚至是彻底的胜利，并强调伊朗的弹道导弹能力、生产和供应链以及核基础设施遭受的破坏。这就引出了一个显而易见的问题：如果结果真如他们所说的那样决定性，那么究竟是什么变化导致现在又需要进行另一次对抗呢？”

他补充道：“我认为我们必须认识到，仅靠定点清除和远程打击来击败伊朗这样的国家是有限的。此类行动可以摧毁基础设施、消灭关键人员、扰乱生产、延缓军事计划，并给对手造成重大损失。但它们未必能消除对手的战略野心，阻止其能力重建，或带来持久的政治结果。”

美国总统特朗普一再威胁要对伊朗戒备森严的“镐山”设施发动袭击，引发了类似的疑问。“镐山”据信与伊朗核计划有关，但它也堪称伊朗境内最难抵达的目标，此前美以两国的军事行动均未触及该设施。

哥伦比亚广播公司新闻（CBS News）上周报道称，白宫和五角大楼“已制定计划，如果特朗普总统下令，将使用巨型空爆炸弹（MOAB）袭击伊朗境内的军事目标”，包括皮克克斯山。然而，这种重达22000磅的MOAB，也称为GBU-43/B，并非深穿透弹药，而且该报道并未明确说明这种武器将如何使用。目前已知该炸弹仅获准由C-130型运输机投放。它仅在2017年的阿富汗战争中使用过一次，当时阿富汗上空完全允许投掷。您可以在TWZ之前的专题报道中阅读更多关于皮克克斯山目标打击挑战以及美军可能采取哪些措施来阻止或至少削弱该地区的活动（点击此处）。

MOAB 的用途仅限于像皮克克斯山这样的地点。虽然其独特的超压效应可能会伤害暴露在隧道系统内的任何人员，但它不太可能摧毁甚至严重损坏加固设施本身。它可能会破坏外部支撑基础设施，并起到一定的心理战作用，但它绝不是掩体克星。

这并非该武器的真正用途。或许是为了制造心理效应。https://t.co/hDWSXYKexr — Tyler Rogoway (@Aviation_Intel) 2026年10月15日

这并非这种武器的真正用途。或许是为了制造心理效应。https://t.co/hDWSXYKexr

关于“炸弹之母”（MOAB）的泄露事件令人费解，这可能是特朗普政府试图利用媒体迫使伊朗进行谈判的举措之一。这在伊朗冲突的起伏中屡见不鲜，也是特朗普政府惯用的伎俩。

这里谈论的是针对伊朗的威胁计划。他们一直在筹划，而且有很多选择。泄密者和消息来源基本上都完全清楚他们的行动指令。这是有组织的。本届政府一直在按部就班地使用这一手段。——泰勒·罗戈韦 (@Aviation_Intel) 2026年10月15日

这里谈论的是针对伊朗的威胁计划。他们一直在筹划，而且有很多选择。泄密者和消息来源基本上都非常清楚他们的行动指令。这是有组织的。本届政府一直在按部就班地使用这一手段。

据《耶路撒冷邮报》周三报道，伊朗方面认为美以联合袭击“势在必行”。该报道援引伊朗法尔斯通讯社（一家隶属于伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）的准官方媒体）的消息称，“报道援引一位伊朗高级安全官员的话补充说，如果此类袭击涉及暗杀伊朗官员，伊朗将把美国政客视为合法袭击目标。”

伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队还威胁称，如果发生任何新一轮的袭击，将对中东各地的目标发动更大规模的报复性袭击。

正如我们前文所述，伊朗持续在霍尔木兹海峡及其周边地区袭击商船。伊朗官方通讯社伊通社报道称，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军声称，近日在波斯湾北部袭击了四艘正在运输石油的船只，另有三艘船只在霍尔木兹海峡以西触雷受损。

虽然 TWZ 无法独立核实这些说法，但安布雷海事安全公司表示，本月在霍尔木兹海峡航行期间受损的船只数量“急剧增加”。

“10月3日至16日这两周，船只数量分别增至每周11艘和13艘，而此前几周的平均每周数量为三到四艘，”安布雷高级分析师丹尼尔·穆勒在公司今天发布的最新安全评估报告中指出。“这一增长恰逢伊朗扩大行动，旨在限制被认为未经授权的过境活动，而美国则继续为沿阿曼海岸线的过境活动提供便利。”

穆勒补充道，10月9日，“伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队威胁称，将在整个海湾地区追击并袭击未经伊朗授权通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只。” “10月份，归咎于伊朗的事件涉及卡塔尔、阿联酋、沙特阿拉伯和阿曼苏哈尔附近海域的商船。10月8日至16日期间，霍尔木兹海峡外海有六艘商船（五艘油轮和一艘液化气船）受损。此外，10月20日，一艘油轮在伊拉克近海受损。”

本周早些时候，《华尔街日报》和《华盛顿邮报》报道称，由于美国采取措施保护油轮远离该地区，波斯湾的石油出口已恢复到战前水平。

据《华尔街日报》援引船舶追踪机构Kpler的数据报道，“截至10月18日的一周内，中东石油流量（包括经由霍尔木兹海峡和该地区其他路线的运输）平均每天超过2400万桶，超过了战前2330万桶的水平。” “初步数据显示，同期霍尔木兹海峡的石油流量（包括阿曼湾的近海转运）平均每天约为1400万桶，相当于战前水平的82%。”

据《华尔街日报》报道：“由于美国保护下建立的临时航运系统帮助油轮穿越伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡发起的最猛烈攻击之一，波斯湾石油出口量已超过战前水平。” https://t.co/SJo2jlUfew — Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) 2026年10月21日

据《华尔街日报》报道：“由于美国保护下建立的临时航运系统帮助油轮穿越伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡发起的最猛烈攻击之一，波斯湾石油出口量已超过战前水平。” https://t.co/SJo2jlUfew

然而，由于伊朗冲突持续发酵，全球石油能源市场依然承受着巨大的压力，这在很大程度上要归咎于航运公司保险成本的飙升。也门胡塞武装加大了对沙特阿拉伯石油基础设施的袭击力度，包括最近在沙伊巴油田附近发动的袭击，进一步加剧了这一局面。胡塞武装还对途经曼德海峡的船只施加压力，曼德海峡是连接红海和亚丁湾的关键咽喉要道。

自2014年以来，由沙特领导的支持也门国际公认政府的联军与胡塞武装之间一直断断续续地发生冲突。去年，由于以色列与伊朗爆发“十二日战争”，在红海及其周边地区与伊朗支持的也门武装分子之间的战斗愈演愈烈。今年2月，美国和以色列对伊朗政权发动大规模军事行动后，胡塞武装也以导弹和无人机袭击作为对伊朗的支持进行报复。

自2025年5月以来，美国政府和胡塞武装一直维持着脆弱的停火协议。尽管也门武装分子目前封锁了曼德海峡，并对红海南部海域的沙特船只发动了新一轮袭击，同时还袭击了该海域的关键能源码头和沙特炼油厂，但停火协议仍在继续。伊朗的代理人还袭击了至关重要的东西输油管道，该管道将石油输送到红海，绕过霍尔木兹海峡。据报道，该管道在遭到远程无人机袭击后关闭，目前已重新开放。

双方还在也门大部分地区交战，双方之间的冲突仍在持续。

《国家报》指出：“周三，在沙特阿拉伯最大的油田之一——谢巴油田的一家加工厂附近，两名人员被拦截无人机的碎片击中身亡，另有两人受伤。谢巴油田及其加工厂的运营目前未受影响，但此次袭击再次引发市场动荡，人们担心沙特石油供应可能中断，而沙特王国刚刚基本恢复了经由霍尔木兹海峡和红海的石油出口。”

据 OilPrice.com 报道，截至周五上午，布伦特原油价格已飙升至每桶 114 美元以上，这是自 5 月份美国和伊朗之间的冲突加剧以来的最高水平。

据路透社援引六位知情人士的消息报道，沙特阿美已通知员工撤离其位于达兰的总部，并远程办公。此前一天，附近机场发生袭击事件，造成两人死亡。路透社还补充说，这是自伊朗战争爆发以来，沙特阿美首次要求员工撤离总部。

该媒体解释说，胡塞武装“在本月初袭击了该公司总部大楼，造成了广泛的破坏，火势蔓延到好几层楼”。

英国国防大臣韦斯·斯特里廷在一份声明中表示，胡塞武装对沙特阿拉伯的袭击促使英国承诺提供“防御性空中支援，以保护沙特城市和关键国家基础设施免受空中袭击，这些支援将使用英国皇家空军的台风战斗机”。声明还指出，“这些战机将执行防御任务，不会对胡塞武装发动进攻性打击。英国还将提供一架英国皇家空军的A400M运输机，以支援沙特境内的国防物资运输，同时派遣英国军事顾问为沙特参谋人员提供支持。”

斯特里廷说：“胡塞武装持续袭击我们的盟友沙特阿拉伯，这种行为绝对令人不齿。”

沙特阿美总部大楼的日落照片。（沙特阿美）布里吉多·阿尔凯德

正如我们在本文前面提到的，美国正在继续对伊朗港口实施海上封锁。

美国中央司令部周四在X频道表示，其对伊朗港口的重新海上封锁已进入第100天，“已帮助阻止伊朗出口至少价值250亿美元的原油，并限制了伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队资助代理民兵、犯罪网络和恐怖主义的能力。除美军允许的人道主义援助外，伊朗已没有任何海上进出口。”

今天是美国中央司令部部队恢复对伊朗实施“钢铁长城”海上封锁的第100天。这项行动已帮助阻止伊朗出口价值至少250亿美元的原油，并限制了伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队资助代理民兵、犯罪网络等的能力…… pic.twitter.com/DwiamYBdHY — 美国中央司令部 (@CENTCOM) 2026年10月22日

今天是美国中央司令部部队恢复对伊朗实施“钢铁长城”海上封锁的第100天。这项行动已帮助阻止伊朗出口价值至少250亿美元的原油，并限制了伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队资助代理民兵、犯罪网络等的能力…… pic.twitter.com/DwiamYBdHY

无论对伊朗采取行动的原因是什么，以色列国防军官员表示，新一轮的军事打击可能无法达到预期效果。

据《耶路撒冷邮报》报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）下属的法尔斯通讯社称，伊朗方面认为美国和以色列的袭击是“必然的”。

该报道援引一位伊朗高级安全官员的话说：“如果此类袭击涉及暗杀伊朗官员，伊朗将把美国政客视为合法目标。”

据《耶路撒冷邮报》报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队还宣布，为回应美国威胁要使用美国武库中最强大的常规炸弹攻击伊朗核设施，伊朗正准备推出一种名为“万弹之父”的新型武器。

但据《华盛顿邮报》报道，官员们拒绝透露任何关于该武器的类型、威力、是否已投入使用以及何时向公众展示的细节。

除了该地区的战略和战术问题外，我们采访的那位以色列国防军官员还表达了担忧，认为“国内政治因素可能会影响”以色列总理内塔尼亚胡和美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的言论和决策。以色列将于10月27日举行全国议会选举，这可能会对以色列国内政治产生重大影响。美国11月的中期选举也是如此。

“我无法得知他们的具体考量，但政治动机影响如此重大的战略决策的可能性不容忽视，”这位以色列国防军官员警告说。“随着以色列大选临近，我衷心希望内塔尼亚胡不会基于哪怕部分基于眼前的政治考量而做出对国家安全产生深远影响的决定。事关重大，军事行动绝不能成为重塑国内政治格局的手段。”

2026年10月27日以色列大选前夕，以色列总理兼利库德集团领导人本雅明·内塔尼亚胡在哈提克瓦市场一家餐厅向支持者发表竞选演讲。（图片来源：Amir Levy/Getty Images）

在周一与特朗普的通话中（该通话被现场录制并发布在他的X账户上），内塔尼亚胡感谢这位美国领导人对他的选举支持，并提出了未来对伊朗采取军事行动的建议。

“唐纳德，我们在伊朗还有一项任务要完成……我们会一起完成，”以色列领导人对特朗普说。“我们会完成它，其他人不会去做。”

一切都已结束。耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶！哎呀哎呀！ pic.twitter.com/GuPEAPn0Tc — 本杰明·内塔尼亚胡 (Benjamin Netanyahu) – 以色列 (@netanyahu) 2026 年 10 月 19 日

一切都已结束。耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶耶！哎呀哎呀！ pic.twitter.com/GuPEAPn0Tc

至于特朗普，他此前曾表示，与伊朗的战争将在“大选后立即结束”，据报道，他还告诉助手，他预计在中期选举后恢复对伊朗的空袭。美国国内民调显示，这场持续不断的冲突仍然极不受选民欢迎，选民们也渴望看到冲突结束。

周四下午，特朗普在接受记者采访时承认，伊朗战争可能会对共和党在中期选举中的希望产生负面影响。

“一方面，他们喜欢我这么做，因为我做了其他总统本该做的事；另一方面，他们可能不喜欢，”特朗普说。“这——要付出代价，我做这件事的时候就立刻明白了，但我们不能让伊朗拥有核武器。我的意思是，一方面，人们可能不喜欢，但很多人，很多伟大的爱国者，真的很喜欢。其他总统早就应该这么做了。伊朗战争，我们已经狠狠地打击了他们，而且我们可能还会更进一步。”

问：您认为伊朗战争对中期选举有何影响？特朗普：一方面，他们喜欢这样。另一方面，也许他们不喜欢。这是要付出代价的。pic.twitter.com/qtkE9M2vSQ — Clash Report (@clashreport) October 22, 2026

问：您认为伊朗战争对中期选举有何影响？特朗普：一方面，他们喜欢这样。另一方面，也许他们不喜欢。这是要付出代价的。pic.twitter.com/qtkE9M2vSQ

周四晚些时候，美国总统表示：“我们很快就会解决掉伊朗，不管用什么方法。对我来说，用什么方法几乎无关紧要。”

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普谈伊朗：“我们很快就会解决掉伊朗。不管用什么方法。对我来说，用什么方法几乎无关紧要。这件事很快就会结束，你们的汽油和石油价格将会暴跌。” pic.twitter.com/vIGviqe8gi — Open Source Intel (@Osint613) October 23, 2026

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普谈伊朗：“我们很快就会解决掉伊朗。不管用什么方法。对我来说，用什么方法几乎无关紧要。这件事很快就会结束，你们的汽油和石油价格将会暴跌。” pic.twitter.com/vIGviqe8gi

尽管种种迹象表明，美国和以色列至少已进入对伊朗发动新一轮打击的最后筹划阶段，但即便最终没有发动打击，中东局势仍将是全球关注的焦点。持续不断的航运威胁以及胡塞武装与沙特阿拉伯之间不断升级的冲突，正对天然气价格造成日益严重的冲击，导致通货膨胀飙升，并给全球经济带来巨大压力。

联系作者：howard@twz.com

评论加载失败，请刷新页面。

手机左右滑动，电脑按 ← → 键，也能切换新闻