F-16s to be ‘flying in the skies of Ukraine this summer,’ US says

More than two years into the full-scale war with Russia, Ukraine is closer than ever to its coveted F-16 jets.

In a statement Wednesday , American, Danish and Dutch leaders said the “transfer process” for the fourth-generation fighters is “underway.”

“Those jets will be flying in the skies of Ukraine this summer to make sure that Ukraine can continue to effectively defend itself from the Russian aggression,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said at a NATO event in Washington .

However, Justin Bronk, an air power analyst at the London-based Royal United Services Institute think tank, cautioned the statement may simply suggest a change of ownership rather than a state of combat readiness. The Ukrainian Air Forces may now go from training on jets held and operated by the Netherlands and Denmark to having custody of some.

“I highly doubt they would make a public statement about it” if the F-16s were immediately moving onto Ukrainian airfields, Bronk said.

The reason for that could be safety. In the last week, Bronk noted, Russia has targeted four Ukrainian airfields with ballistic missiles — guided by aerial drones that Ukrainian forces apparently lacked the interceptors to take down. It’s unclear how many actual planes, as opposed to decoys, Kyiv lost.

But the attacks are a reminder of a much larger challenge for Ukraine, Bronk said: Without enough air defense, its military can’t use F-16s anywhere near their full potential.

To wit, U.S. President Joe Biden opened the NATO summit on Tuesday by announcing an agreement with four other countries to send Ukraine more air defense batteries .

The U.S., the Netherlands and Denmark lead a group of countries that helps provide Ukraine with air power. The Danish and Dutch governments first agreed to send Ukraine the jets last year, and other countries, including Norway and Belgium, have since joined. The number thus far pledged to Ukraine is about 65.

Norwegian officials on Wednesday clarified that Oslo’s contribution would cover six F-16s. “We plan to start delivering the aircraft in the course of 2024,” Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre said in a statement.

Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo said earlier this year his country would donate 30 planes. The Netherlands has promised 24.

It was at last year’s NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, where countries initially agreed to start training Ukrainian pilots to fly the fighters. One of the most difficult challenges has been a language barrier, since the jargon used by pilots and crews is highly technical and there’s no time to clarify a word mid-flight.

According to the Pentagon , there are just over 12 Ukrainian pilots training to fly the jets between Denmark and the U.S. right now. While a handful graduated from the course in late May, the number in the pipeline is too small, some Ukrainian officials argue.

“If we’re expected to have up to 20 machines by the end of the year, we need pilots,” Igor Zhovkva, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said in an interview. “We are asking now [from] all of our partners for two things: to increase the number of places for training, because currently it is not enough, and secondly to optimize the period of training” — essentially speed it up.

One of the main issues with increasing that capacity is the long queue of countries already waiting for the U.S. Air Force to train their pilots. Yehor Cherniev, who leads Ukraine’s parliamentary delegation to NATO, told Defense News that he and other lawmakers asked Congress for a list of those nations so Ukraine can negotiate with them to swap spots.

American lawmakers didn’t agree to do so, he said.

The F-16s have long been a priority for Ukraine. Receiving them may help with morale and the country’s actual defense.

In the medium term, they could also pair well with two airborne surveillance planes Sweden pledged for Ukraine at the start of the summer. These can help the Ukrainian Air Forces with targeting as well as command-and-control, Swedish Defence Minister Pål Jonson said in an interview.

“That’s the difference between a third-generation fighter, which the Ukrainians are operating, and the fourth-generation fighter,” he said.

For his part, Bronk questions how Ukraine will train on and then operate these surveillance planes. They will need experienced Ukrainian crews and then must pair them with pilots who have expertise on the F-16 before there is a positive effect for the embattled country, Bronk said.

“Where are they going to fly from? Who’s going to maintain them? And are they going to fly and operate inside Ukraine, or are they going to fly around the borders?” he added.

Noah Robertson is the Pentagon reporter at Defense News. He previously covered national security for the Christian Science Monitor. He holds a bachelor’s degree in English and government from the College of William & Mary in his hometown of Williamsburg, Virginia.

与俄罗斯全面战争爆发两年多后，乌克兰比以往任何时候都更接近获得梦寐以求的 F-16 战斗机。

美国、丹麦和荷兰领导人周三发表声明称，第四代战斗机的“移交进程”正在进行中。

“今年夏天，这些战机将在乌克兰上空飞行，以确保乌克兰能够继续有效地抵御俄罗斯的侵略，”美国国务卿安东尼·布林肯在华盛顿举行的北约活动上表示。

然而，总部位于伦敦的皇家联合军种研究所（RUSI）的空军力量分析师贾斯汀·布朗克警告说，这一声明可能仅仅意味着所有权的变更，而非战备状态的提升。乌克兰空军现在可能从使用荷兰和丹麦持有和运营的战机进行训练，转变为拥有部分战机的自主权。

布朗克说：“如果F-16战机立即转移到乌克兰的机场，我非常怀疑他们会就此事发表公开声明。”

原因可能在于安全。布朗克指出，上周俄罗斯用弹道导弹袭击了乌克兰的四个机场——这些导弹由无人机引导，而乌克兰军队显然缺乏拦截机将其击落。目前尚不清楚基辅损失了多少架真正的飞机，而非诱饵飞机。

但布朗克表示，这些袭击提醒人们，乌克兰面临着一个更大的挑战：如果没有足够的防空力量，乌克兰军队就无法充分发挥 F-16 的潜力。

具体来说，美国总统乔·拜登周二在北约峰会开幕式上宣布，他与其他四个国家达成协议，向乌克兰提供更多防空导弹系统。

美国、荷兰和丹麦牵头一个国家集团，向乌克兰提供空中力量援助。丹麦和荷兰政府去年率先同意向乌克兰提供战机，此后挪威和比利时等其他国家也加入了援助行列。迄今为止，承诺向乌克兰提供的战机数量约为65架。

挪威官员周三澄清，奥斯陆的贡献将包括六架F-16战斗机。“我们计划在2024年开始交付这些飞机，”首相乔纳斯·加尔·斯特勒在一份声明中表示。

比利时首相亚历山大·德克罗今年早些时候表示，比利时将捐赠30架飞机。荷兰承诺捐赠24架。

去年在立陶宛维尔纽斯举行的北约峰会上，各国初步同意开始培训乌克兰飞行员驾驶战斗机。其中最大的挑战之一是语言障碍，因为飞行员和机组人员使用的术语非常专业，飞行途中根本没有时间去解释某个词的意思。

据五角大楼称，目前只有12名乌克兰飞行员正在接受训练，准备驾驶战机往返于丹麦和美国之间。虽然5月底有几名飞行员顺利毕业，但一些乌克兰官员认为，在训飞行员的数量仍然太少。

乌克兰总统泽连斯基的顾问伊戈尔·若夫克瓦在接受采访时表示：“如果我们预计到年底能拥有20架飞机，我们就需要飞行员。”他补充道：“我们现在向所有合作伙伴提出两点要求：一是增加培训名额，因为目前名额不足；二是优化培训周期”——也就是加快培训速度。

提升美国空军飞行员训练能力的主要障碍之一是，已有众多国家排队等待美国空军为其飞行员提供训练机会。乌克兰议会北约代表团团长叶戈尔·切尔涅夫告诉《防务新闻》，他和一些议员已向国会索取这些国家的名单，以便乌克兰可以与它们谈判，交换训练名额。

他说，美国立法者没有同意这样做。

F-16战机一直是乌克兰的优先采购项目。接收这些战机可能有助于提振士气，并增强国家的实际防御能力。

瑞典国防部长帕尔·约翰逊在接受采访时表示，从中长期来看，这些飞机还可以与瑞典今年夏季初承诺向乌克兰提供的两架空中侦察机很好地配合使用。这些飞机可以帮助乌克兰空军进行目标定位以及指挥控制。

“这就是乌克兰人正在使用的第三代战斗机和第四代战斗机之间的区别，”他说。

布朗克则质疑乌克兰将如何训练和操作这些侦察机。他表示，乌克兰需要经验丰富的机组人员，并且必须将他们与精通F-16战斗机的飞行员配对，才能对这个饱受战火蹂躏的国家产生积极影响。

他补充道：“它们将从哪里起飞？谁来维护它们？它们是在乌克兰境内飞行和运营，还是在边境附近飞行？”

诺亚·罗伯逊是《防务新闻》的五角大楼记者。他此前曾为《基督教科学箴言报》报道国家安全新闻。他拥有弗吉尼亚州威廉斯堡威廉与玛丽学院的英语和政治学学士学位。