Korea's Q2 current account surplus tops Germany, Japan combined on chip boom

Korea recorded a $116.6 billion current account surplus in the second quarter, exceeding Germany and Japan’s combined total by $13.7 billion for the first time since comparable data became available in 1996. The surplus was driven by booming semiconductor exports and rising income from overseas investments. The IMF projects Korea’s annual surplus at about $422 billion this year, while the Bank of Korea expects it to exceed its previous $450 billion forecast. Economists warned that weaker AI investment or increased chip supply from rivals could threaten the gains and urged industrial diversification.

Korea’s second-quarter surplus rose 310 percent from $28.4 billion a year earlier, while Germany’s increased 12 percent and Japan’s 5 percent.

Korea recorded an $88.2 billion surplus in July and August, compared with a combined $80.8 billion for Germany and Japan.

The Ministry of Data and Statistics reported second-quarter semiconductor exports of $113.89 billion, up 181.6 percent year on year, and third-quarter exports of $148.02 billion, up 218.7 percent.

The IMF projects Korea’s current account surplus will fall to $295.7 billion in 2029 and $177.5 billion in 2031 after remaining above $400 billion in 2027 and 2028.

Kang Sung-jin of Korea University said the government and private sector should restructure industries such as petrochemicals and steel and shift toward higher-value-added products.

Published Oct 25, 2026 3:37 pm KST

Updated Oct 25, 2026 5:25 pm KST

Concerns grow over reliance on higher chip prices as AI demand could cool

Samsung Electronics and SK hynix chips are loaded onto a Korean Air cargo aircraft bound for Hong Kong at Incheon International Airport, July 30. Joint Press Corps

Korea’s current account surplus exceeded the combined total of manufacturing powerhouses Germany and Japan in the second quarter of this year for the first time since comparable data for all three countries became available in 1996, data showed Sunday.

Booming semiconductor exports have pushed the trade surplus to record highs, while expanding overseas investments have boosted dividend and interest income.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Korea's current account surplus to rank second globally behind China this year, with the largest increase among 190 countries.

However, experts warned that a global slowdown in artificial intelligence (AI) investment or increased supply from rival chip exporters could threaten the gains, highlighting the need to diversify the country's industrial base.

According to IMF data compiled by the Bank of Korea (BOK), Korea posted a current account surplus of $116.6 billion in the second quarter, ranking second behind China among 36 major economies for which data was available.

Germany ranked third with $52.3 billion, followed by Japan with $50.6 billion. These two countries' combined surplus of $102.9 billion was $13.7 billion less than Korea's surplus.

Korea’s second-quarter current account surplus surged 310 percent from $28.4 billion a year earlier, an increase of $88.3 billion. Germany and Japan, by comparison, recorded gains of 12 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

Korea maintained its lead into the third quarter, recording a current account surplus of $88.2 billion in July and August, compared with a combined $80.8 billion for Germany and Japan.

Korea’s current account surplus this year is likely to surpass last year’s record high of $123.1 billion. The IMF projects Korea's annual current account surplus at about $422 billion this year. The increase is expected to be the largest among 190 economies.

The BOK offered a more optimistic outlook, saying in its latest assessment of economic conditions last week that the annual surplus is likely to exceed its previous forecast of $450 billion, citing strong semiconductor exports.

Containers bound for export are stacked at a port in Busan, Oct. 1. Yonhap

The widening current account surplus has been fueled by the global AI boom, which has driven up demand for memory chips used in AI servers and data centers.

According to the Ministry of Data and Statistics, the country's semiconductor exports reached $113.89 billion in the second quarter, up 181.6 percent from a year earlier. It rose further to $148.02 billion in the third quarter, a 218.7 percent increase from the same period last year.

But economists warned that Korea should not rely too much on the semiconductor boom to sustain its current account surplus.

Notably, the IMF expects Korea's current account surplus to remain above $400 billion in 2027 and 2028, before falling to $295.7 billion in 2029 and $177.5 billion in 2031.

"While the increase in the overall surplus is a positive indicator, it could also be an illusion created by the semiconductor boom. The government should not formulate policies on the assumption that the semiconductor boom will continue," said Kang Sung-jin, a professor of economics at Korea University.

"The government and private sector should work together to restructure industries such as petrochemicals and steel and shift toward higher-value-added products," he added.

The U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3 could also affect Korea's semiconductor exports by shaping the outlook for AI investment.

A report released earlier this month by the BOK's New York office warned that a Democratic sweep of both chambers could lead to tighter AI regulations and dampen investment. A slowdown in global AI investment could lead to weaker demand for memory chips.

"The market expects a Democratic sweep to weaken investment sentiment amid concerns over AI regulation and increased uncertainty surrounding a change in administration, slowing the industry's growth. As a result, interest rates, particularly long-term yields, and stock prices are expected to fall, while the U.S. dollar is expected to weaken," the report said.

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韩国第二季度经常账户盈余达1166亿美元，比德国和日本的总和高出137亿美元，这是自1996年有可比数据以来首次出现如此大的盈余。这一盈余主要得益于半导体出口的蓬勃发展和海外投资收入的增长。国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测韩国今年的全年盈余约为4220亿美元，而韩国央行则预计这一数字将超过此前4500亿美元的预测。经济学家警告称，人工智能投资疲软或竞争对手芯片供应增加可能会威胁到这些盈余，并敦促韩国实现产业多元化。

韩国第二季度贸易顺差较上年同期增长 310%，达到 284 亿美元；德国贸易顺差增长 12%；日本贸易顺差增长 5%。

韩国7月和8月录得882亿美元的贸易顺差，而德国和日本的贸易顺差合计为808亿美元。

数据统计部报告称，第二季度半导体出口额为1138.9亿美元，同比增长181.6%；第三季度出口额为1480.2亿美元，同比增长218.7%。

国际货币基金组织预测，韩国经常账户盈余在 2027 年和 2028 年保持在 4000 亿美元以上之后，到 2029 年将降至 2957 亿美元，到 2031 年将降至 1775 亿美元。

高丽大学的康成镇表示，政府和私营部门应该重组石化和钢铁等行业，转向生产更高附加值的产品。

发布于2026年10月25日下午3:37（韩国标准时间）

更新于2026年10月25日下午5:25（韩国标准时间）

随着人工智能需求可能降温，人们越来越担心过度依赖高芯片价格。

7月30日，在仁川国际机场，三星电子和SK海力士的芯片被装载到一架飞往香港的大韩航空货机上。（联合新闻社）

周日公布的数据显示，今年第二季度韩国的经常账户盈余首次超过了制造业强国德国和日本的总和，这是自 1996 年这三个国家有可比数据以来首次出现这种情况。

半导体出口的蓬勃发展使贸易顺差达到历史新高，而不断扩大的海外投资也提高了股息和利息收入。

国际货币基金组织（IMF）预计，今年韩国的经常账户盈余将位居全球第二，仅次于中国，并且在190个国家中增幅最大。

然而，专家警告说，全球人工智能 (AI) 投资放缓或竞争对手芯片出口商供应增加可能会威胁到这些成果，凸显了该国实现产业基础多元化的必要性。

根据韩国银行（BOK）汇编的国际货币基金组织（IMF）数据，韩国第二季度经常账户盈余为1166亿美元，在有数据可查的36个主要经济体中排名第二，仅次于中国。

德国以523亿美元位列第三，日本以506亿美元紧随其后。这两个国家的顺差合计为1029亿美元，比韩国的顺差少了137亿美元。

韩国第二季度经常账户盈余较上年同期的284亿美元激增310%，增加883亿美元。相比之下，德国和日本的增幅分别为12%和5%。

韩国在第三季度继续保持领先地位，7 月和 8 月的经常账户盈余为 882 亿美元，而德国和日本的盈余合计为 808 亿美元。

韩国今年的经常账户盈余有望超过去年创下的1231亿美元的历史新高。国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测，韩国今年的年度经常账户盈余约为4220亿美元，增幅预计将在190个经济体中位居榜首。

韩国央行给出了更为乐观的展望，在上周发布的最新经济状况评估报告中表示，由于半导体出口强劲，年度盈余可能超过此前预测的 4500 亿美元。

10月1日，出口集装箱堆放在釜山港口。（韩联社）

全球人工智能热潮推动了经常账户盈余的扩大，进而推高了人工智能服务器和数据中心对内存芯片的需求。

据国家统计局数据，中国第二季度半导体出口额达到1138.9亿美元，同比增长181.6%；第三季度进一步增长至1480.2亿美元，同比增长218.7%。

但经济学家警告说，韩国不应过分依赖半导体行业的繁荣来维持其经常账户盈余。

值得注意的是，国际货币基金组织预计韩国的经常账户盈余在 2027 年和 2028 年将保持在 4000 亿美元以上，然后在 2029 年降至 2957 亿美元，并在 2031 年降至 1775 亿美元。

“虽然整体盈余的增长是一个积极的信号，但这也可能是半导体繁荣带来的假象。政府不应基于半导体繁荣会持续下去的假设来制定政策，”韩国大学经济学教授康成镇表示。

他补充说：“政府和私营部门应该共同努力，重组石化和钢铁等行业，转向生产更高附加值的产品。”

11月3日举行的美国中期选举也可能通过影响人工智能投资前景而对韩国半导体出口产生影响。

本月初，韩国央行纽约办事处发布的一份报告警告称，民主党若横扫参众两院，可能导致人工智能监管收紧，并抑制投资。全球人工智能投资放缓可能导致对存储芯片的需求下降。

报告称：“市场预期民主党若大获全胜，将因对人工智能监管的担忧以及政府更迭带来的不确定性加剧而削弱投资信心，从而减缓行业增长。因此，利率，尤其是长期收益率，以及股价预计将会下跌，美元也将走弱。”

民调显示，受半导体和化妆品出口强劲增长的提振，企业对第四季度的信心有所改善：

韩国央行维持利率在3%不变，但进一步加息的可能性依然存在。

韩国央行报告称，强劲的芯片出口预计将从明年开始带动私人消费。