Three directions the US defense budget could go

To forecast the Pentagon’s fiscal 2025 budget is tricky when Congress is still debating the fiscal 2024 version, which is in progress under a continuing resolution . But with the Biden administration set to unveil its FY25 budget request in the first half of March, the consultancy Oliver Wyman has come up with three scenarios for the Defense Department’s top line through FY29.

These hinge on four related variables:

Who wins the White House? Former President Donald Trump regards increased defense spending as one of his signature achievements. If reelected, he might look to reprise that record. He and President Joe Biden also could take very different approaches to Ukraine financial assistance via supplemental budgets.

Who controls Congress? If one party controls all three branches of government, it will have an easier time enacting its fiscal plans. Given the number of Democratic seats at stake this November, Senate control is likely to shift to Republicans in 2025-2026. The race for control of the House is a toss-up. A divided Congress is a recipe for continued dysfunction over the budget process.

Will there be fiscal constraints? The Fiscal Responsibility Act set caps on all discretionary spending in FY24 and FY25. The law could sequester the FY24 budget to 99% of FY23 enacted levels unless Congress acts by April 30. This would leave the DOD about 4.2% below the FY24 budget request. For FY25 and beyond, Congress could limit federal spending to cope with historic budget deficits and national debt.

What about supplemental budgets? In October, the White House requested $105.1 billion in supplemental funds — which are not constrained by the Fiscal Responsibility Act — to support Ukraine , Israel , U.S. submarine programs and other efforts. House Republicans are divided over Ukraine funding. Whether Congress uses supplementals to aid Ukraine and to skirt caps are critical variables.

There are some outliers who advocate spending outside these scenarios. For example, Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., has called for defense spending equal to 5% of gross domestic product. On the other hand, Reps. Barbara Lee, D-Calif., and Mark Pocan, D-Wis., in February 2023 called for the FY24 defense budget to be $100 billion below the FY22 budget. But neither of these extremes has enough support.

Doug Berenson is a partner in the aerospace and defense practice at the consultancy Oliver Wyman.

由于国会仍在就2024财年预算进行辩论（该预算目前在一项持续拨款决议的框架下进行），因此预测五角大楼2025财年的预算颇为棘手。但鉴于拜登政府计划在3月上半月公布其2025财年预算申请，咨询公司奥纬咨询（Oliver Wyman）提出了国防部截至2029财年的三种预算情景。

这些都取决于四个相关变量：

谁将入主白宫？前总统唐纳德·特朗普将增加国防开支视为其标志性政绩之一。如果连任，他可能会延续这一政策。他和现任总统乔·拜登在通过补充预算向乌克兰提供财政援助方面也可能采取截然不同的做法。

谁控制国会？如果一个政党控制政府所有三个部门，它推行财政计划就会更加容易。鉴于今年11月民主党席位众多，参议院的控制权很可能在2025-2026年转至共和党。众议院的控制权之争则难分伯仲。国会分裂势必导致预算流程持续失灵。

是否存在财政限制？《财政责任法案》对2024财年和2025财年的所有可自由支配支出设定了上限。除非国会在4月30日前采取行动，否则该法案可能将2024财年预算削减至2023财年实际预算的99%。这将使国防部预算比2024财年预算申请低约4.2%。对于2025财年及以后，国会可能会限制联邦支出，以应对历史性的预算赤字和国家债务。

那么，补充预算又如何呢？10月份，白宫申请了1051亿美元的补充资金——这些资金不受《财政责任法案》的限制——用于支持乌克兰、以色列、美国潜艇项目和其他项目。众议院共和党人对乌克兰的拨款问题存在分歧。国会是否利用补充资金援助乌克兰并规避拨款上限，是至关重要的变数。

也有一些特立独行的人士主张在上述方案之外增加国防开支。例如，密西西比州共和党参议员罗杰·威克尔呼吁将国防开支提高到国内生产总值的5%。另一方面，加利福尼亚州民主党众议员芭芭拉·李和威斯康星州民主党众议员马克·波坎在2023年2月呼吁将2024财年的国防预算比2022财年减少1000亿美元。但这两种极端方案都缺乏足够的支持。

道格·贝伦森是咨询公司奥纬咨询（Oliver Wyman）航空航天和国防业务的合伙人。