Why is Indonesia facing a rare MSCI downgrade and what's at stake?

Only three other markets have faced a double MSCI downgrade from emerging market to “standalone” status since 1997.

A man talks on his mobile phone near an electronic board displaying Indonesia Composite Index at the Indonesia Stock Exchange in Jakarta, Friday, Oct 16, 2026. (Photo: AP/Tatan Syuflana)

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SINGAPORE: About US$65 billion was wiped off the value of Indonesian stocks on Oct 16 after global index provider MSCI proposed downgrading the country's stock market from emerging market to "standalone" status.

The Jakarta Composite plunged 11.6 per cent following the announcement, marking its biggest one-day fall since the 1998 Asian financial crisis.

The proposal caught investors by surprise, as it went further than MSCI’s initial warning in January that Indonesia could be demoted to “frontier market” status.

If implemented, the downgrade could trigger billions of US dollars in foreign outflows from Southeast Asia's largest economy, even as Indonesian authorities pursue reforms aimed at addressing concerns over market transparency and trading practices.

CNA Games Guess Word Crack the word, one row at a time Buzzword Create words using the given letters Mini Sudoku Tiny puzzle, mighty brain teaser Mini Crossword Small grid, big challenge Word Search Spot as many words as you can Show More Show Less But the downgrade is not yet a done deal. MSCI has given Indonesia time to demonstrate meaningful and lasting improvements before reaching a final decision next year. What does a standalone status mean, why is MSCI considering such a drastic downgrade, and how could it affect Indonesia’s stock market? THE INFLUENCE OF MSCI MSCI, originally known as Morgan Stanley Capital International, is one of the world's largest index providers, alongside rivals such as FTSE Russell and S&P Dow Jones Indices. Its influence lies in the widespread use of its benchmarks by global fund managers, who rely on them to guide investment allocations and measure the performance of their portfolios. About US$10 trillion in assets are benchmarked against MSCI's Emerging Markets Index, making its decisions on which countries and companies to include potentially consequential for investment flows. A country's inclusion in or exclusion from these indexes can therefore influence how much foreign capital enters or leaves its stock market. WHAT A STANDALONE DOWNGRADE MEANS MSCI classifies global equity markets into four categories: developed, emerging, frontier or standalone. Frontier markets are smaller, less developed or less accessible than emerging markets. To qualify, a market must have at least one company meeting MSCI’s minimum size and liquidity requirements, among other criteria, and demonstrate a degree of accessibility to foreign investors Asian markets in this category include Vietnam, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Standalone markets, meanwhile, sit outside MSCI’s developed, emerging and frontier market indexes. They are broadly classified into two groups: newly eligible markets and markets previously classified under the developed, emerging or frontier market categories. According to MSCI, a market may be reclassified as standalone if there is a severe deterioration in its accessibility, size or liquidity. Markets in this category include Argentina, Lebanon, Nigeria and Ukraine. None are in the Asia-Pacific region. For Indonesia, a downgrade from emerging to standalone status would mean its stocks being removed from major emerging market indexes tracked by investment funds worldwide. Funds that passively track these indexes, or are ranked against them, would be forced to sell their Indonesian holdings. Actively managed funds benchmarked against them could also reduce their exposure. If Indonesia’s market is downgraded to standalone status, it would become the largest economy in the standalone category, at more than twice the size of Argentina, the next largest.

But the downgrade is not yet a done deal. MSCI has given Indonesia time to demonstrate meaningful and lasting improvements before reaching a final decision next year.

What does a standalone status mean, why is MSCI considering such a drastic downgrade, and how could it affect Indonesia’s stock market?

THE INFLUENCE OF MSCI

MSCI, originally known as Morgan Stanley Capital International, is one of the world's largest index providers, alongside rivals such as FTSE Russell and S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Its influence lies in the widespread use of its benchmarks by global fund managers, who rely on them to guide investment allocations and measure the performance of their portfolios.

About US$10 trillion in assets are benchmarked against MSCI's Emerging Markets Index, making its decisions on which countries and companies to include potentially consequential for investment flows.

A country's inclusion in or exclusion from these indexes can therefore influence how much foreign capital enters or leaves its stock market.

WHAT A STANDALONE DOWNGRADE MEANS

MSCI classifies global equity markets into four categories: developed, emerging, frontier or standalone.

Frontier markets are smaller, less developed or less accessible than emerging markets.

To qualify, a market must have at least one company meeting MSCI’s minimum size and liquidity requirements, among other criteria, and demonstrate a degree of accessibility to foreign investors

Asian markets in this category include Vietnam, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

Standalone markets, meanwhile, sit outside MSCI’s developed, emerging and frontier market indexes.

They are broadly classified into two groups: newly eligible markets and markets previously classified under the developed, emerging or frontier market categories.

According to MSCI, a market may be reclassified as standalone if there is a severe deterioration in its accessibility, size or liquidity.

Markets in this category include Argentina, Lebanon, Nigeria and Ukraine. None are in the Asia-Pacific region.

For Indonesia, a downgrade from emerging to standalone status would mean its stocks being removed from major emerging market indexes tracked by investment funds worldwide.

Funds that passively track these indexes, or are ranked against them, would be forced to sell their Indonesian holdings. Actively managed funds benchmarked against them could also reduce their exposure.

If Indonesia’s market is downgraded to standalone status, it would become the largest economy in the standalone category, at more than twice the size of Argentina, the next largest.

CONCERNS OVER TRANSPARENCY AND MARKET FUNCTIONING

MSCI's concerns go beyond the size and liquidity of Indonesia's stock market to more fundamental questions about how it operates, analysts told CNA.

Allspring Global Investments' portfolio manager Gary Tan said the index provider's core concerns centre on Indonesia's market transparency, price formation and the credibility of regulatory enforcement.

Similarly, Eastspring Investments said MSCI's proposed downgrade reflects questions about the integrity and credibility of Indonesia's trading mechanisms.

In January, MSCI first warned that Indonesia could lose its emerging market status, citing opaque share ownership structures, suspected coordinated trading activity and inadequate enforcement.

It said its clients had flagged concerns about the reliability of market data, particularly information on the proportion of shares available for public trading, known as free float, and how shareholders were classified.

These made it difficult for investors to determine how many shares were genuinely available for trading.

Concerns that some stock prices may have been artificially supported also raised questions about the reliability of market prices and the effectiveness of regulatory oversight, MSCI said.

Indonesian officials, however, have questioned the basis of MSCI's assessment and called for greater transparency over its methodology.

President Prabowo Subianto told his Cabinet earlier this week that the global index provider was trying to "intimidate" the country.

Hanif Dhakiri of the National Awakening Party, who sits on the parliamentary committee overseeing finance affairs, called for MSCI's methodology to be transparent, objective and consistently applied across countries.

"We should not be defensive in the face of criticism, but neither should we accept judgements without examining their basis and objectivity," he told Reuters.

MSCI, in an emailed response to Reuters, said its decisions follow transparent and rules-based methodologies.

WHY MSCI IS CONSIDERING A MORE SEVERE DOWNGRADE

Last week, MSCI went a step further, saying that demoting Indonesia’s market to frontier status might not adequately reflect the severity of these problems.

The global index provider said Indonesian authorities had failed to make “sufficient progress” in demonstrating consistent implementation of market reforms and their sustained impact.

Weak enforcement also remained a concern, it added.

Mr Tan said MSCI may be concerned that downgrading Indonesia to a frontier market instead of a standalone status would simply transfer its unresolved underlying market issues into another MSCI index.

"This would be more disruptive, as Indonesia would leave (the emerging market index) without the offsetting inflows from frontier index funds," he added.

Angus Mackintosh, an ASEAN specialist at Aletheia Capital, suggested that MSCI's earlier removal of several Indonesian companies from its Indonesia index may also have influenced the severity of its latest proposal.

"This may have had a bearing on the severe approach this time around," he told CNA.

"MSCI has already made it clear that it will downgrade Indonesia unless it makes progress on its demands to sanction market abuse, although it has not been specific as to what it wants."

Following MSCI's proposal, Indonesia's Financial Services Authority disclosed fines of millions of dollars for market participants involved in trading violations - including three of the companies MSCI had cut from its index.

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN POTENTIAL OUTFLOWS

A downgrade could trigger billions of US dollars in capital outflows as international funds sell Indonesian equities to align their portfolios with MSCI's revised classifications.

Indonesia has been classified as an MSCI emerging market since 1989.

Losing that status would mark a significant change for a market that was, until recently, a favourite among foreign investors.

The impact would be quite severe in terms of passive money outflows and active money outflows, Mr Mackintosh said.

Banks estimate that a downgrade could trigger US$3 billion to US$6 billion in outflows from passive emerging market funds.

UBS also warned that active investors could withdraw another US$15 billion.

Beyond the immediate selling pressure, a downgrade could affect how international investors assess Indonesian assets.

It could impact Indonesia's currency negatively and increase the cost of capital in the country, Mr Mackintosh said.

However, Eastspring Investments cautioned that the eventual impact would depend on the index providers’ final decisions, how any reclassification is implemented and how investors respond to Indonesia's ongoing capital market reforms.

The projected outflows are also estimates rather than guaranteed withdrawals, with actual selling likely to depend on the composition of investment portfolios and the timing of any index changes.

In the near term, uncertainty surrounding this reclassification review may prolong volatility in Indonesian equities, particularly amid limited domestic catalysts and persistent external pressures, it said.

The market could face a prolonged period of uncertainty over the next six to nine months, until MSCI reaches its final decision before June next year, Eastspring Investments added.

A WINDOW TO AVERT A DOWNGRADE

Analysts said Indonesia still has an opportunity to retain its emerging market status, but will need to demonstrate that its reforms are producing lasting improvements in market conduct and transparency.

MSCI has given the country time to address the concerns raised by investors and demonstrate that its reforms are delivering lasting improvements in market transparency, conduct and enforcement.

The index provider is consulting institutional investors until next April, with a final decision expected by June.

Macquarie Group's head of ASEAN equity research Jayden Vantarakis told CNA that regulators must take sufficient action to address concerns over market conduct and convince institutional investors to oppose the proposed reclassification.

Similarly, Mr Tan said Indonesia must demonstrate tangible improvements in transparency, trading practices and enforcement.

" Ultimately, MSCI will need confidence that these measures will remain effective after the current index freeze is lifted," Mr Tan explained.

Indonesian authorities have already introduced a series of measures since MSCI first raised its concerns in January.

Top officials were replaced by figures widely known and trusted by markets. Its financial regulator and stock exchange introduced tighter measures and adopted reforms intended to reduce the risk of market manipulation.

Hours after MSCI’s latest announcement, Indonesia’s financial regulator also imposed a total of 2.1 trillion rupiah (US$116.41 million) in fines against entities linked to market manipulation practices.

Indonesian authorities have also asked the police to investigate “alleged violations or criminal acts in the capital market”.

Mr Mackintosh acknowledged that Indonesia had introduced numerous policy measures, but said the priority now was to ensure they were strictly implemented.

"Those responsible for coordinated trading and share manipulations should be punished through fines or prison terms," he said.

RARE MOVE WITH FEW PRECEDENTS

A direct downgrade from emerging market to standalone status is highly unusual.

Over the past decade, five markets have been moved to standalone status, while eight have been downgraded to that category since 1997.

Of these, only three have experienced a direct downgrade from emerging market to standalone status over that period.

Among the most prominent examples are Argentina, which was downgraded in 2021 after imposing capital controls, and Russia, which was moved to standalone status in 2022 after Western sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine effectively cut it off from global financial markets.

But Indonesia's situation is different, Mr Tan said, adding that the case centres on concerns over market functioning, governance and enforcement.

Mr Mackintosh also noted that there were no precedents of markets being downgraded to standalone status because of the actions of a relatively small number of market participants or concerns over transparency.

"Indonesia stands up well against its emerging market peers on most measures, which is what makes this latest move perplexing," he told CNA.

The potential financial impact of a downgrade could nevertheless be substantial.

According to JPMorgan, Indonesia accounts for 0.46 per cent of MSCI's emerging market index. This means that for every US$100 billion invested in funds tracking that index, about US$460 million would be allocated to Indonesian stocks.

By comparison, Argentina had a weight of just 0.12 per cent when it was removed from the index.

LIMITS OF INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR INFLUENCE

The proposed downgrade has also sparked controversy over whether major institutional investors can influence global index providers.

Following MSCI’s announcement, former Indonesian trade minister Muhammad Lutfi on Tuesday alleged that Singapore state investors Temasek and GIC had been involved in pressuring MSCI to issue the warning to Indonesia.

Both GIC and Temasek have rejected the allegations .

GIC said its investment decisions are not driven by index classifications or top-down views of a market. Instead, it looks at the fundamentals at a company level or asset level.

So how much influence can sovereign wealth funds wield over index providers?

Mr Tan said large institutional investors, including sovereign wealth funds, can submit evidence and feedback during MSCI's consultation process.

However, he stressed that index providers ultimately need to safeguard the independence and credibility of their methodologies.

Sovereign wealth funds also typically invest less mechanically than passive index-tracking funds, with their allocations driven more by investment fundamentals than benchmark weightings, he added.

The final classification decision rests with the index provider.

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自 1997 年以来，只有另外三个市场曾两次被 MSCI 从新兴市场降级为“独立”市场。

2026年10月16日，星期五，在雅加达印尼证券交易所，一名男子在显示印尼综合指数的电子显示屏旁使用手机。（图片：美联社/Tatan Syuflana）

这段音频由人工智能工具生成。

新加坡：10 月 16 日，全球指数提供商 MSCI 提议将印尼股市从新兴市场降级为“独立”市场，导致印尼股市市值蒸发约 650 亿美元。

消息公布后，雅加达综合指数暴跌 11.6%，创下自 1998 年亚洲金融危机以来最大单日跌幅。

该提议令投资者感到意外，因为它比MSCI在1月份发出的印尼可能被降级为“前沿市场”的初步警告走得更远。

如果实施，评级下调可能会引发数十亿美元的资金从东南亚最大的经济体外流，即便印尼当局正在推行旨在解决市场透明度和贸易惯例问题的改革。

CNA游戏 猜词游戏 逐行破解单词 流行词游戏 用给定的字母组成单词 迷你数独 小谜题，脑力挑战 迷你填字游戏 小方格，大挑战 单词搜索 尽可能多地找出单词 显示更多 显示更少 但降级尚未最终确定。MSCI给了印尼时间，使其在明年做出最终决定前展现出有意义且持久的改进。独立地位意味着什么？MSCI为何考虑如此大幅度的降级？这将如何影响印尼股市？ MSCI的影响力 MSCI，原名摩根士丹利资本国际，是全球最大的指数提供商之一，与富时罗素和标普道琼斯指数等竞争对手齐名。其影响力在于其基准指数被全球基金经理广泛使用，这些基金经理依靠这些指数来指导投资配置并衡量其投资组合的业绩。约有10万亿美元的资产以MSCI新兴市场指数为基准，因此，MSCI决定将哪些国家和公司纳入该指数可能会对投资流动产生重大影响。一个国家是否被纳入或排除在这些指数中，会影响外国资本流入或流出其股市的规模。独立评级下调意味着什么？MSCI将全球股票市场分为四类：发达市场、新兴市场、前沿市场和独立市场。前沿市场比新兴市场规模更小、发展程度更低或准入门槛更高。要符合资格，一个市场必须至少有一家公司满足MSCI的最低规模和流动性要求（以及其他标准），并且必须展现出对外国投资者的一定程度的准入性。亚洲市场中，越南、巴基斯坦、斯里兰卡和孟加拉国均属于这一类别。与此同时，独立市场则不属于MSCI的发达市场、新兴市场和前沿市场指数。它们大致分为两类：新近符合资格的市场和之前被归类为发达市场、新兴市场或前沿市场的市场。根据MSCI的定义，如果一个市场的准入性、规模或流动性出现严重恶化，则可能被重新归类为独立市场。阿根廷、黎巴嫩、尼日利亚和乌克兰均属于此类市场，但这些市场均不在亚太地区。对于印尼而言，如果其市场地位从新兴市场降级为独立市场，则意味着其股票将被从全球投资基金追踪的主要新兴市场指数中剔除。被动追踪这些指数或以这些指数作为基准的基金将被迫出售其持有的印尼股票。以这些指数为基准的主动管理型基金也可能减少其印尼股票的敞口。如果印尼市场被降级为独立市场，它将成为独立市场类别中最大的经济体，其规模将是排名第二的阿根廷的两倍多。

但评级下调尚未最终确定。MSCI给予印尼时间，要求其展现出切实持久的改善，之后才会于明年做出最终决定。

独立地位意味着什么？MSCI 为何考虑如此大幅度下调评级？这会对印尼股市产生怎样的影响？

MSCI的影响

MSCI（原名摩根士丹利资本国际）是全球最大的指数提供商之一，与富时罗素和标普道琼斯指数等竞争对手齐名。

其影响力在于全球基金经理广泛使用其基准，他们依靠这些基准来指导投资配置并衡量其投资组合的业绩。

约有 10 万亿美元的资产以 MSCI 新兴市场指数为基准，因此，MSCI 决定将哪些国家和公司纳入其中，可能会对投资流动产生重大影响。

因此，一个国家是否被纳入或排除在这些指数之外，会影响外国资本流入或流出该国股市的规模。

独立降级意味着什么

MSCI将全球股票市场分为四类：发达市场、新兴市场、前沿市场或独立市场。

前沿市场比新兴市场规模更小、发展程度更低或准入门槛更高。

要符合资格，一个市场必须至少有一家公司满足MSCI的最低规模和流动性要求（以及其他标准），并且要展现出对外国投资者的一定程度的准入性。

该类别中的亚洲市场包括越南、巴基斯坦、斯里兰卡和孟加拉国。

与此同时，独立市场则不属于 MSCI 的发达市场、新兴市场和前沿市场指数。

它们大致分为两类：新符合条件的市场和以前归类为发达市场、新兴市场或前沿市场的市场。

根据MSCI的说法，如果一个市场的可及性、规模或流动性严重恶化，则该市场可能会被重新归类为独立市场。

此类市场包括阿根廷、黎巴嫩、尼日利亚和乌克兰。这些市场均不在亚太地区。

对于印尼而言，从新兴市场降级为独立经济体意味着其股票将被从全球投资基金追踪的主要新兴市场指数中剔除。

被动追踪这些指数或以这些指数作为业绩基准的基金将被迫出售其持有的印尼股票。以这些指数为业绩基准的主动管理型基金也可能减少其印尼持仓。

如果印尼市场被降级为独立市场，它将成为独立市场类别中最大的经济体，其规模是排名第二的阿根廷的两倍多。

对透明度和市场运作的担忧

分析师告诉 CNA，MSCI 的担忧不仅限于印尼股市的规模和流动性，还涉及其运作方式等更根本的问题。

Allspring Global Investments 的投资组合经理 Gary Tan 表示，该指数提供商的核心关注点在于印尼的市场透明度、价格形成以及监管执法的可信度。

同样，东亚投资表示，MSCI 提议的降级反映了人们对印尼贸易机制的完整性和可信度的质疑。

今年1月，MSCI首次发出警告，称印尼可能失去新兴市场地位，理由是股权结构不透明、涉嫌存在协同交易活动以及执法不力。

该公司表示，其客户对市场数据的可靠性表示担忧，特别是有关可供公开交易的股票比例（称为自由流通股）以及股东分类的信息。

这使得投资者难以确定究竟有多少股票可以真正进行交易。

MSCI表示，一些股票价格可能被人为支撑的担忧也引发了人们对市场价格可靠性和监管有效性的质疑。

然而，印尼官员对MSCI评估的依据提出质疑，并呼吁提高其评估方法的透明度。

普拉博沃·苏比安托总统本周早些时候告诉内阁成员，全球指数提供商试图“恐吓”该国。

国民觉醒党成员哈尼夫·达基里是议会财政事务委员会的成员，他呼吁MSCI的方法论应该透明、客观，并在各国得到一致应用。

“面对批评，我们不应该采取防御姿态，但也不应该在不审查其依据和客观性的情况下接受评判，”他告诉路透社。

MSCI在回复路透社的电子邮件中表示，其决策遵循透明且基于规则的方法。

MSCI为何考虑更大幅度下调评级？

上周，MSCI 更进一步表示，将印尼市场降级为前沿市场可能不足以反映这些问题的严重性。

全球指数提供商表示，印尼当局在证明市场改革的持续实施及其持续影响方面未能取得“足够的进展”。

报告还指出，执法不力仍然是一个令人担忧的问题。

Tan先生表示，MSCI可能担心，将印尼降级为前沿市场而不是独立市场，只会将其未解决的潜在市场问题转移到另一个MSCI指数中。

他补充说：“这将造成更大的破坏，因为印尼将使（新兴市场指数）失去来自前沿指数基金的对冲资金流入。”

Aletheia Capital 的东盟专家 Angus Mackintosh 认为，MSCI 此前将几家印尼公司从其印尼指数中剔除，也可能影响了其最新提案的严厉程度。

“这可能对这次采取严厉措施产生了一定影响，”他告诉亚洲新闻台。

“MSCI已经明确表示，除非印尼在制裁市场操纵行为方面取得进展，否则将下调印尼的评级，尽管MSCI尚未具体说明其要求是什么。”

在 MSCI 提出建议后，印尼金融服务管理局公布了对参与交易违规行为的市场参与者处以数百万美元罚款的处罚，其中包括 MSCI 已从其指数中剔除的三家公司。

数十亿美元的潜在资金外流

评级下调可能引发数十亿美元的资本外流，因为国际基金会抛售印尼股票，以使他们的投资组合与MSCI修订后的评级保持一致。

自 1989 年以来，印度尼西亚一直被 MSCI 列为新兴市场。

失去这一地位将标志着一个市场的重大变化，因为直到最近，该市场一直是外国投资者的最爱。

麦金托什先生表示，被动资金流出和主动资金流出都会受到相当严重的冲击。

银行估计，评级下调可能导致被动型新兴市场基金流出 30 亿至 60 亿美元。

瑞银还警告称，活跃投资者可能还会撤出150亿美元。

除了直接的抛售压力外，评级下调还可能影响国际投资者对印尼资产的评估。

麦金托什先生表示，这可能会对印尼货币产生负面影响，并增加该国的资本成本。

然而，东亚投资提醒，最终的影响将取决于指数提供商的最终决定、任何重新分类的实施方式以及投资者对印尼正在进行的资本市场改革的反应。

预计的资金流出也是估计值，而不是保证的提款额，实际的出售可能取决于投资组合的构成和任何指数变化的时机。

报告称，短期内，围绕此次重新分类审查的不确定性可能会延长印尼股市的波动，尤其是在国内利好因素有限和外部压力持续存在的情况下。

Eastspring Investments补充道，在MSCI于明年6月之前做出最终决定之前，市场在未来六到九个月内可能会面临一段较长的不确定时期。

避免降级的机会

分析人士表示，印尼仍有机会保持其新兴市场地位，但需要证明其改革正在市场行为和透明度方面带来持久的改善。

MSCI 已给予该国时间来解决投资者提出的担忧，并证明其改革正在市场透明度、行为规范和执法方面带来持久的改善。

指数提供商将与机构投资者进行磋商，直至明年4月，预计6月将做出最终决定。

麦格理集团东盟股票研究主管杰登·范塔拉基斯告诉亚洲新闻台，监管机构必须采取充分措施来解决对市场行为的担忧，并说服机构投资者反对拟议的重新分类。

同样，谭先生表示，印尼必须在透明度、贸易惯例和执法方面取得切实改进。

“最终，MSCI需要确信，在目前的指数冻结解除后，这些措施仍将有效，”谭先生解释说。

自MSCI于1月份首次提出担忧以来，印尼当局已经出台了一系列措施。

高层官员被市场普遍认可和信任的人物所取代。金融监管机构和证券交易所出台了更严格的措施，并采取了旨在降低市场操纵风险的改革。

在 MSCI 发布最新公告数小时后，印尼金融监管机构也对与市场操纵行为有关的实体处以总计 2.1 万亿印尼盾（1.1641 亿美元）的罚款。

印尼当局还要求警方调查“资本市场中涉嫌的违规或犯罪行为”。

麦金托什先生承认印尼已经出台了许多政策措施，但他表示，现在的首要任务是确保这些措施得到严格执行。

他说：“那些进行协同交易和操纵股价的人应该受到罚款或监禁的惩罚。”

罕见举动，鲜有先例

从新兴市场直接降级为独立国家的情况极为罕见。

过去十年间，有五个市场被提升为独立市场，而自 1997 年以来，有八个市场被降级为独立市场。

其中，只有三个国家在此期间直接从新兴市场降级为独立经济体。

其中最突出的例子是阿根廷，该国在 2021 年实施资本管制后被降级；还有俄罗斯，该国在入侵乌克兰后受到西方制裁，导致其与全球金融市场隔绝，于 2022 年被降级为独立国家。

但谭先生表示，印尼的情况有所不同，并补充说，该案件的核心在于对市场运作、治理和执法的担忧。

麦金托什先生还指出，此前从未有过因为少数市场参与者的行为或对透明度的担忧而将市场降级为独立市场的情况。

“印尼在大多数指标上都优于其他新兴市场国家，这使得印尼的最新举措令人费解，”他告诉亚洲新闻台。

评级下调可能带来的财务影响仍然相当巨大。

根据摩根大通的数据，印尼在MSCI新兴市场指数中占比0.46%。这意味着，每投资1000亿美元到追踪该指数的基金中，大约有4.6亿美元会配置到印尼股票。

相比之下，阿根廷从指数中剔除时的权重仅为 0.12%。

机构投资者影响力的局限性

此次拟议的降级也引发了关于大型机构投资者是否能够影响全球指数提供商的争议。

在 MSCI 发布公告后，印尼前贸易部长穆罕默德·卢特菲周二声称，新加坡国有投资者淡马锡和 GIC 参与向 MSCI 施压，要求其向印尼发出警告。

新加坡政府投资公司（GIC）和淡马锡控股均否认了这些指控。

新加坡政府投资公司（GIC）表示，其投资决策并非基于指数分类或自上而下的市场观点，而是着眼于公司层面或资产层面的基本面。

那么，主权财富基金对指数提供商究竟能施加多大的影响力？

陈先生表示，包括主权财富基金在内的大型机构投资者可以在MSCI的咨询过程中提交证据和反馈意见。

但他强调，指数提供者最终需要维护其方法的独立性和可信度。

他还补充说，主权财富基金的投资方式通常也比被动型指数追踪基金更少机械化，其资产配置更多地受投资基本面而非基准权重驱动。

最终的分类决定权在于指数提供商。

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