Tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030 may still not be enough to meet climate goals: IRENA chief

Rising energy demand, driven by changing lifestyles and the growth of AI, is adding pressure to the global energy transition, IRENA chief Francesco La Camera told CNA's Roland Lim.

IRENA chief Francesco La Camera speaking to CNA's Roland Lim. (Image: CNA)

This audio is generated by an AI tool.

SINGAPORE: The world is moving closer to its 2030 renewable energy capacity target, but even achieving that goal may not be enough to meet global climate objectives, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) chief has warned.

This is because energy demand is growing faster than expected, while progress in energy efficiency continues to lag, IRENA director-general Francesco La Camera said on Monday (Oct 26).

At the COP28 climate summit in Dubai in 2023, countries committed to tripling global installed renewable energy capacity to 11.2 terawatts (TW) by 2030.

“We are getting closer and closer to the (target of) 11.2TW by 2030,” Mr La Camera told CNA on the sidelines of the Singapore International Energy Week (SIEW).

“We will not get there exactly but very close to it.”

However, the original target was based on projections about future energy demand that have since changed.

“The demand has been rising faster because of the change in lifestyle – more heating, more cooling,” he said, pointing to artificial intelligence as a contributing factor.

In recent years, the AI boom has driven rapid growth in energy-intensive data centres, adding to global electricity consumption as demand for computing power surges.

Countries at COP28 also committed to doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvement by 2030 but Mr La Camera said progress has been slow.

“We have had not very good progress in energy efficiency. This means that the gap between supply and demand has been widening,” he said.

He added that even meeting the tripling target might not be sufficient to keep the world on a pathway consistent with the Paris Agreement’s climate goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C.

The agency is working on a roadmap to bring the global energy transition back on track, he said.

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RECORD GROWTH FOR RENEWABLES, BUT STILL NOT FAST ENOUGH

Mr La Camera’s warning comes even as renewable energy installations continue to reach record highs.

The world added 692 gigawatts of renewable power capacity in 2025, accounting for 85.6 per cent of all new power capacity installed globally, according to IRENA.

Total renewable power capacity reached 5,149 gigawatts by the end of last year, an annual increase of 15.5 per cent.

Mr La Camera pointed to the continued growth in green energy installations despite successive global crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the Middle East energy crisis, as evidence of the transition's resilience.

He added that the upheavals also highlighted the energy security benefits of renewables.

“Now, with all these crises, one after the other, we see that people are relying on renewables, on a decentralised energy system that appears to be intrinsically more secure than fossil fuel,” he said.

However, Mr La Camera stressed that a global shift towards a cleaner energy system would be a gradual process, requiring sustained efforts.

“We are the International Renewable Energy Agency, but we never asked for (completely) phasing out fossil fuel because we know that is impossible to do in the short term,” he said.

CAN RENEWABLES MEET GROWING DEMAND FROM AI?

With AI and data centres driving demand for uninterrupted electricity, questions remain over whether renewables and battery storage can replace conventional gas-fired power generation.

Mr La Camera said they could, pointing to a major data centre in China’s Qinghai province that uses a combination of concentrated solar power, solar photovoltaic systems, wind and hydropower.

He also argued that renewable energy combined with energy storage could be a more attractive option than building new gas-fired power plants.

However, he acknowledged that energy needs and circumstances vary across countries and regions, and that natural gas would still be needed during the transition.

Beyond emissions reduction and energy security, Mr La Camera said the cost of electricity would play an increasingly important role in determining countries’ economic competitiveness.

“What makes the economy competitive? The quality of products, the promotion of products, but also the cost of the electricity that we need for producing the goods,” he said.

“And the lower cost is with renewables.”

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国际可再生​​能源署署长弗朗西斯科·拉卡梅拉告诉亚洲新闻台记者罗兰·林，生活方式的改变和人工智能的发展推动了能源需求的增长，这给全球能源转型带来了更大的压力。

国际可再生​​能源署署长弗朗西斯科·拉卡梅拉接受亚洲新闻台记者罗兰·林采访。（图片：亚洲新闻台）

这段音频是由人工智能工具生成的。

新加坡：国际可再生​​能源机构（IRENA）总干事警告称，世界正朝着2030年可再生能源装机容量目标迈进，但即使实现该目标，也可能不足以实现全球气候目标。

国际可再生​​能源署署长弗朗切斯科·拉卡梅拉周一（10月26日）表示，这是因为能源需求增长速度超过预期，而能源效率的提升却持续滞后。

在 2023 年迪拜举行的 COP28 气候峰会上，各国承诺到 2030 年将全球可再生能源装机容量增加两倍，达到 11.2 太瓦 (TW)。

“我们距离 2030 年达到 11.2 太瓦的目标越来越近了，”拉卡梅拉先生在新加坡国际能源周 (SIEW) 期间告诉亚洲新闻台 (CNA)。

“我们无法完全达到目标，但会非常接近。”

然而，最初的目标是基于对未来能源需求的预测，而这些预测后来发生了变化。

“由于生活方式的改变——供暖和制冷需求增加——需求增长速度加快，”他说道，并指出人工智能是促成这一现象的因素之一。

近年来，人工智能的蓬勃发展推动了高耗能数据中心的快速增长，随着计算能力需求的激增，全球电力消耗也随之增加。

在 COP28 上，各国还承诺到 2030 年将全球平均年能源效率提升速度提高一倍，但拉卡梅拉先生表示，进展缓慢。

“我们在提高能源效率方面进展并不理想。这意味着供需之间的差距正在扩大，”他说。

他还补充说，即使实现三倍增长的目标，也可能不足以使世界走上与《巴黎协定》气候目标相一致的道路，即把全球变暖限制在远低于工业化前水平 2 摄氏度以内，同时努力将升温幅度限制在 1.5 摄氏度以内。

他说，该机构正在制定路线图，以使全球能源转型重回正轨。

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可再生能源增长创纪录，但速度仍然不够快

尽管可再生能源装机容量持续创下历史新高，拉卡梅拉先生仍发出了警告。

根据国际可再生​​能源署（IRENA）的数据，到2025年，全球新增可再生能源发电容量为692吉瓦，占全球新增发电容量的85.6%。

截至去年年底，可再生能源发电总装机容量达到5149吉瓦，年增长率为15.5%。

拉卡梅拉先生指出，尽管经历了包括新冠疫情、乌克兰战争和中东能源危机在内的一系列全球危机，绿色能源装置的持续增长证明了能源转型的韧性。

他还补充说，这些动荡也凸显了可再生能源在能源安全方面的优势。

他说：“现在，面对接踵而至的危机，我们看到人们正在依赖可再生能源，依赖分散式能源系统，而这种系统本质上似乎比化石燃料更安全。”

然而，拉卡梅拉先生强调，全球向更清洁的能源系统转型将是一个渐进的过程，需要持续不断的努力。

“我们是国际可再生​​能源机构，但我们从未要求（完全）逐步淘汰化石燃料，因为我们知道这在短期内是不可能的，”他说。

可再生能源能否满足人工智能日益增长的需求？

随着人工智能和数据中心推动对不间断电力需求的增长，可再生能源和电池储能能否取代传统的燃气发电仍然存在疑问。

拉卡梅拉先生表示他们可以做到，他以中国青海省的一个大型数据中心为例，该数据中心结合使用了聚光太阳能、太阳能光伏系统、风能和水力发电。

他还认为，可再生能源与储能相结合，可能比新建燃气发电厂更具吸引力。

然而，他也承认各国和各地区的能源需求和情况各不相同，转型期间仍然需要天然气。

拉卡梅拉先生表示，除了减少排放和保障能源安全之外，电力成本将在决定各国经济竞争力方面发挥越来越重要的作用。

“是什么让经济具有竞争力？产品质量、产品推广，以及我们生产商品所需的电力成本，”他说道。

“而且可再生能源成本更低。”

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