Exit polls trigger heated debate across Israeli political divide

Supporters of former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, react to the exit poll at his party headquarters in Tel Aviv, Israel, on October 27, 2026 [Shir Torem/Reuters]

Israeli political leaders have traded sharp reactions to exit poll projections showing no clear winner between the country’s main political blocs.

Updated figures broadcast by Israel’s Channel 13 showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud-led coalition tied at 51 seats with the opposition bloc led by challenger Gadi Eisenkot in the 120-seat Knesset.

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Despite narrower exit poll figures, opposition leaders insisted the result was a defeat for the government.

Eisenkot, head of the Yashar party and a former military chief of staff, told supporters after voting closed that the initial projections showed a “complete lack of confidence in Netanyahu and the October 7 government”, according to the AFP news agency.

“Don’t let anyone confuse you: the Netanyahu bloc has suffered a crushing defeat,” opposition leader Yair Lapid said in a statement. “This is a total collapse and the public has told them to go home.”

Under the updated figures, unaligned Arab parties were expected to hold 18 seats, leaving both major camps 10 seats short of the 61 required for an absolute majority.

Supporters at Eisenkot’s watch party in Tel Aviv cheered projections as voter turnout reached 77.7 percent, according to the Central Elections Committee.

Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot and his wife Hannah cast their ballots at a polling station in Herzliya on October 27, 2026 [Jack Guez/AFP]

However, senior figures in Netanyahu’s camp pushed back against opposition declarations, saying the final results could shift the balance.

Gideon Saar, Israel’s foreign minister and a key Netanyahu ally, dismissed opposition statements as “premature”, writing on social media that Likud remained the largest single party in parliament.

Meanwhile, leaders of Arab political factions highlighted their potential role in upcoming coalition negotiations.

“We will transform the mandate we received into a new reality in the country,” Mansour Abbas, leader of the United Arab List (Ra’am), told reporters.

At the Joint List alliance headquarters in Nazareth, candidate Faten Gattas told supporters that high participation among Palestinian citizens of Israel aimed to block the return of Netanyahu’s nationalist coalition.

“We refuse the occupation and racism, and we will remain here,” Gattas said, according to the Reuters news agency.

With neither camp reaching a governing majority, political analysts suggested smaller parties would be key deciders as formal coalition talks begin in the coming days.

2026年10月27日，以色列特拉维夫，亚沙尔党领导人、前军事首脑加迪·艾森科特的支持者在其党总部对出口民调结果做出反应。[Shir Torem/路透社]

以色列各政治领导人对出口民调预测结果反应强烈，民调显示该国主要政治集团之间没有明显的赢家。

以色列第 13 频道播出的最新数据显示，在拥有 120 个席位的以色列议会中，总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团与挑战者加迪·艾森科特领导的反对派联盟均获得 51 个席位。

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尽管出口民调结果显示反对派与政府的差距缩小，但反对派领导人坚称选举结果是政府的失败。

据法新社报道，亚沙尔党主席、前军事总参谋长艾森科特在投票结束后告诉支持者，初步预测显示“人们对内塔尼亚胡和10月7日政府完全缺乏信心”。

反对派领导人亚伊尔·拉皮德在一份声明中表示：“不要被任何人蒙蔽：内塔尼亚胡阵营遭遇了惨败。这是一场彻底的崩溃，民众已经让他们滚蛋了。”

根据最新数据，预计不结盟的阿拉伯政党将获得 18 个席位，这意味着两大阵营距离获得绝对多数所需的 61 个席位还差 10 个席位。

据中央选举委员会称，在特拉维夫举行的艾森科特竞选之夜庆祝活动上，支持者们为投票率达到 77.7% 的预测结果欢呼雀跃。

2026年10月27日，亚沙尔党领导人加迪·艾森科特和他的妻子汉娜在赫兹利亚的一个投票站投票。[杰克·格兹/法新社]

然而，内塔尼亚胡阵营的高层人士反驳了反对派的说法，称最终结果可能会改变局势。

以色列外交部长、内塔尼亚胡的重要盟友吉迪恩·萨尔驳斥了反对派的声明，称其“为时尚早”，并在社交媒体上写道，利库德集团仍然是议会中最大的单一政党。

与此同时，阿拉伯各政治派别的领导人强调了他们在即将举行的组阁谈判中可能发挥的作用。

“我们将把我们获得的授权转化为该国的新现实，”联合阿拉伯名单（Ra'am）领导人曼苏尔·阿巴斯告诉记者。

在拿撒勒的联合名单联盟总部，候选人法滕·加塔斯告诉支持者，以色列巴勒斯坦公民的高参与度旨在阻止内塔尼亚胡的民族主义联盟卷土重来。

据路透社报道，加塔斯说：“我们拒绝占领和种族主义，我们将继续留在这里。”

由于两大阵营均未能获得执政多数席位，政治分析人士认为，随着未来几天正式组阁谈判的开始，小党派将成为关键的决定因素。