Five key takeaways from Israel’s parliamentary elections

Netanyahu’s Likud emerges as single largest Israeli party, bloc edges past opposition.

Supporters of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu celebrate at Likud party headquarters in Jerusalem following the release of exit poll results in the hours after Israel's election, October 28, 2026 [Ohad Zwigenberg/AP Photo]

Exit polls from Israel’s election show a neck-and-neck race between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, with neither likely to secure a clear path to a governing majority.

Tuesday’s vote was largely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership and response to the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent genocidal war on Gaza.

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It also came as Israel’s pogroms in the occupied West Bank have escalated, and amid mounting tensions with several of its neighbours, many of whom it has attacked in the past three years.

Here are five key takeaways from the Israeli elections so far:

Exit polls show a dead heat between Netanyahu, rival Eisenkot bloc

Late-night exit polls from Israel’s Channel 12 broadcaster projected the Netanyahu bloc would win 52 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, or Israeli parliament. Netanyahu was edging out the opposition bloc led by former Israeli military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, which was projected to win 49 seats.

Israel’s Channel 13 earlier indicated the two blocs were tied, with each winning 51 seats.

Polling indicated that Netanyahu’s Likud party – which leads his wider bloc – could emerge as the single largest party with an estimated 27 seats to 21 for Eisenkot’s Yashar party, according to updated projections from Channels 12 and 13 – giving Likud a clear lead over all others in the parliament.

Arab parties were projected to win 19 seats collectively, building on their 2022 performance.

Israelis vote for parties, which then form alliances to create a governing coalition with a prime minister at the helm. No single party has ever won a 61-seat majority.

Released by the major Israeli television networks, exit polls are unofficial indicators of the vote. Preliminary official results are expected on Wednesday, and may vary from the exit polls.

Leaders react, predict end to Netanyahu’s reign

Opposition bloc leader Eisenkot, who was mounting a challenge to Netanyahu, said the Israeli public had voted for change and against the incumbent prime minister.

Addressing supporters at his Yashar party headquarters, Eisenkot said “this will be a new start. A real new start on a new path. The old era is over, and Israel is starting a new era.”

Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, waves to supporters in Tel Aviv following the release of the first exit poll results on October 28, 2026 [Baz Ratner/AP Photo]

But the Israeli prime minister told supporters that his Likud party is dominant and called for the formation of a “national right-wing government”.

“What we’ve seen is that the Likud party is the largest party – nobody can compete with us,” he said. “The second thing that is clear as well is that the right bloc has a majority. And it is a decisive majority.”

He also accused Israeli television channels of trying to discourage his supporters from voting by projecting stronger results for opposition parties.

Israeli far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich told supporters that his party was projected to win seven seats, vowing to continue expansion of Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank.

The far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir praised his Otzma Yehudit party’s election performance in a speech to supporters at its headquarters.

“We are very proud of our journey”, Ben-Gvir said. “This party was not even existing on the political landscape.”

Democrats leader Yair Golan said on X that Israeli voters had “fired the Netanyahu government” and pledged to work with political partners to form a new administration.

Ra’am leader Mansour Abbas said he hopes the final election results will let the opposition bloc and his party hold the 61 seats needed to form a government. The party was projected to win around seven seats.

Record turnout among voters

The Central Elections Committee reported that 77.7 percent of eligible voters participated in Israel’s election, the highest turnout since 1999. Turnout was up 7.1 percentage points from 2022, when Netanyahu, who has served as prime minister off and on since 1996, returned to office .

Israel’s military said turnout among soldiers had climbed beyond 68 percent by 5pm local time (15:00 GMT). More than 60,000 Israelis also returned home from abroad to take part in the vote.

Polling stations closed at 10pm local time (20:00 GMT), but the committee, the country’s official elections body, said anyone waiting in line at that time would be allowed to vote.

Arab parties accuse Netanyahu of inciting hatred to scare voters

Prominent politicians from Arab-led lists accused Netanyahu of inciting hatred against Palestinian citizens in Israel in an attempt to boost his electoral prospects.

Yousef Jabareen, leader of the Joint List, said in a video statement shared on social media on Tuesday that Netanyahu knew that “we can put an end to his bloody reign”.

Mansour Abbas, leader of the United Arab List, denounced Netanyahu’s comments as a “scare tactic to mobilise right-wing voters and drive them to the polls”.

In a series of posts on X on Tuesday, Netanyahu attacked Arab voters, describing them as “Muslim Brotherhood supporters” and accusing them of “raiding the polling stations and stealing the elections”.

In a separate post, he urged right-wing Israelis to “go out and vote for Likud”, referring to his political party and describing the situation as a “matter of life and death for us”.

What could happen next

After the vote is finalised, the parties will immediately begin negotiations to try to reach the 61-seat majority.

The bloc with the most votes will have different options to assemble support from smaller parties, including forming a minority government or working with another political leader to alternate as prime minister under a power-sharing arrangement.

Once the final count is in, President Isaac Herzog will speak with party leaders about who they want as prime minister, then tap the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government.

The person nominated then has up to 42 days to form a government.

If no government emerges, Netanyahu and his current cabinet will remain as a caretaker government.

If negotiations fail and no coalition can form a government, new elections will be called.

The final vote tally is expected by Friday, and official election results are formally published a week after the election, on November 4.

内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团成为以色列最大的单一政党，该集团超越反对派。

2026年10月28日，以色列大选结束后数小时，以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的支持者在耶路撒冷利库德集团总部庆祝出口民调结果公布。[Ohad Zwigenberg/AP Photo]

以色列大选的出口民调显示，总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡和他的主要竞争对手加迪·艾森科特之间的选情胶着，两人都不太可能获得执政多数席位。

周二的投票被普遍视为对内塔尼亚胡的领导能力以及他对 2023 年 10 月 7 日哈马斯领导的袭击和随后对加沙发动的种族灭绝战争的回应的一次全民公投。

黎巴嫩失去的橄榄季（共3个列表，第1个）：无人机和战机的轰炸下采摘橄榄

以色列三个阿拉伯城镇中的第二个用烟花庆祝议会历史性胜利

列表 3/3：尽管极右势力衰落，斯莫特里奇仍在以色列跳舞

与此同时，以色列在被占领的西岸地区的种族清洗行动不断升级，与几个邻国的紧张关系也在加剧，其中许多邻国在过去三年中都遭到了以色列的攻击。

以下是迄今为止以色列大选的五个主要结论：

出口民调显示，内塔尼亚胡与他的竞争对手艾森科特联盟的支持率不相上下。

以色列第12频道深夜公布的出口民调预测，内塔尼亚胡阵营将在拥有120个席位的以色列议会（Knesset）中赢得52席。内塔尼亚胡的领先优势超过了由前以色列国防军总参谋长加迪·艾森科特领导的亚沙尔党，后者预计将赢得49席。

以色列第 13 频道此前报道称，两大阵营势均力敌，各赢得 51 个席位。

根据第 12 和 13 频道的最新预测，民调显示，内塔尼亚胡的利库德集团（领导着他的大联盟）可能成为议会第一大党，预计获得 27 个席位，而艾森科特的亚沙尔党将获得 21 个席位——这使得利库德集团在议会中明显领先于其他所有政党。

预计阿拉伯政党将共赢得 19 个席位，延续其 2022 年的良好势头。

以色列选民投票选举政党，各政党随后结盟组成执政联盟，由总理领导。历史上没有任何一个政党赢得过61个席位的多数席位。

由以色列主要电视台发布的出口民调是选举结果的非官方指标。初步官方结果预计将于周三公布，可能与出口民调结果有所不同。

各国领导人纷纷表态，预测内塔尼亚胡的统治即将结束。

反对派联盟领导人艾森科特向内塔尼亚胡发起挑战，他表示以色列民众投票支持变革，反对现任总理。

艾森科特在其亚沙尔党总部向支持者发表讲话时说：“这将是一个新的开始。一个真正的新开始，走上一条新道路。旧时代已经结束，以色列正在开启一个新时代。”

2026年10月28日，在特拉维夫公布第一份出口民调结果后，亚沙尔党领导人加迪·艾森科特向支持者挥手致意。[巴兹·拉特纳/美联社照片]

但以色列总理告诉支持者，他的利库德集团占据主导地位，并呼吁组建“民族右翼政府”。

他说：“我们看到，利库德集团是最大的政党——没有人能与我们匹敌。其次，同样显而易见的是，右翼联盟拥有多数席位，而且是绝对多数。”

他还指责以色列电视台通过夸大反对党的得票率来阻止他的支持者投票。

以色列极右翼财政部长贝扎莱尔·斯莫特里奇告诉支持者，他的政党预计将赢得七个席位，并誓言继续在被占领的西岸地区扩大犹太人定居点。

极右翼国家安全部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔在其总部向支持者发表讲话，赞扬了他的犹太力量党在选举中的表现。

“我们为取得的成就感到非常自豪，”本-格维尔说。“这个政党最初甚至在政坛上都不存在。”

民主党领袖亚伊尔·戈兰在X电视台表示，以色列选民已经“解雇了内塔尼亚胡政府”，并承诺将与政治伙伴合作组建新政府。

拉姆党领导人曼苏尔·阿巴斯表示，他希望最终的选举结果能够让反对派联盟及其所在的拉姆党获得组建政府所需的61个席位。此前预计该党将赢得约7个席位。

选民投票率创历史新高

中央选举委员会报告称，以色列选举的投票率为77.7%，是自1999年以来最高的投票率。与2022年相比，投票率上升了7.1个百分点，当时自1996年以来断断续续担任总理的内塔尼亚胡再次上任。

以色列军方表示，截至当地时间下午5点（格林尼治标准时间15:00），士兵投票率已超过68%。此外，还有超过6万名以色列人从国外返回家园参加投票。

投票站于当地时间晚上 10 点（格林尼治标准时间 20:00）关闭，但该国官方选举机构——选举委员会表示，届时任何排队的人都将被允许投票。

阿拉伯政党指责内塔尼亚胡煽动仇恨以恐吓选民。

来自阿拉伯国家联盟的知名政治人物指责内塔尼亚胡煽动对以色列巴勒斯坦公民的仇恨，企图提高自己的选举前景。

联合名单党领袖优素福·贾巴林周二在社交媒体上发布的一段视频声明中表示，内塔尼亚胡知道“我们可以结束他的血腥统治”。

阿拉伯联合名单党领袖曼苏尔·阿巴斯谴责内塔尼亚胡的言论是“一种恐吓策略，目的是动员右翼选民并驱使他们去投票”。

周二，内塔尼亚胡在 X 网站上发表了一系列帖子，攻击阿拉伯选民，称他们是“穆斯林兄弟会的支持者”，并指责他们“袭击投票站并窃取选举”。

在另一篇帖子中，他敦促以色列右翼人士“去投票支持利库德集团”，他指的是自己的政党，并将这种情况描述为“对我们来说是生死攸关的大事”。

接下来会发生什么？

投票结束后，各方将立即开始谈判，力争获得 61 个席位的多数席位。

获得最多选票的联盟将有多种选择来争取小党的支持，包括组建少数派政府，或者与其他政治领导人合作，根据权力分享安排轮流担任总理。

最终计票结果出来后，总统艾萨克·赫尔佐格将与各党派领导人商讨他们希望由谁担任总理，然后挑选他认为最有希望组建政府的候选人。

被提名人有最多 42 天的时间组建政府。

如果政府未能组建完成，内塔尼亚胡及其现任内阁将继续担任看守政府。

如果谈判失败，且没有联合政府能够组建，则将举行新的选举。

最终计票结果预计将于周五公布，正式选举结果将于选举一周后，即11月4日正式公布。