Israel’s election: The battle between change and anti-Palestinian sentiment

With both blocs short of a majority, parties face a choice: to break the taboo on Arab allies or return to the polls.

A supporter gestures while waiting for the arrival of far-right Otzma Yehudit party leader Itamar Ben-Gvir [Ilia Yefimovich/AFP]

With Israel’s governing and opposition blocs failing to secure a majority in Israel’s election , and neither appearing ready to ally with Arab parties that could allow them to form a coalition, speculation is growing over the future shape of the government.

The vote on Tuesday, billed as one of the most important in Israel’s history, saw turnout reach 77.7 percent of eligible voters – the highest level since 1999.

list 1 of 4 Netanyahu outlines achievements, future plans as Likud leads Israeli polls

list 2 of 4 Israeli right makes provocative statements as election votes are counted

list 3 of 4 Israel’s stock market drops as exit polls show no clear election winner

list 4 of 4 Can you form Israel’s next coalition government?

With nearly 80 percent of votes counted by Wednesday afternoon, the outgoing coalition led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, centred around his Likud party, had secured 54 seats, short of the 61 needed to establish a governing coalition.

Former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot’s self-styled Zionist opposition, drawing from parties as diverse as Yair Golan’s relatively left-wing Democrats and Avigdor Lieberman’s hard-right Yisrael Beiteinu, had 49 seats, also short of a governing majority in the 120-strong Knesset.

Holding the balance of power , in theory at least, are the Arab-dominated Ra’am and Joint List, with 17 seats, more than enough to give either bloc a majority with which to appoint a speaker, pass legislation and form a working government.

Those figures are not final, however, with the final tally expected by Friday and official results formally published on November 4 .

What happens next is a matter of procedure as much as politics.

President Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders on who they want as prime minister, before tasking the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government. That candidate has 28 days to build a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension. If they fail, the mandate can pass to another member of parliament, and if that also fails, the Knesset is dissolved and Israelis return to the polls, with the current cabinet staying on as caretaker.

Turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel, who account for one-fifth of the total population, reached about 80 percent, according to some estimates, also above the 1999 figures.

Analysts said the surge was propelled by the harsh treatment of the Israeli-Palestinian minority by the Likud-led government, which increased significantly following the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023 that triggered Israel’s genocidal war against Palestinians in Gaza. Netanyahu’s outgoing government is the most right-wing in Israeli history, featuring far-right figures such as National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, whose policies and rhetoric against Palestinians have essentially made him a recruiting sergeant for the pro-Arab parties.

Analysts also attributed the strong performance to a well-organised campaign that targeted the demands of Israel’s Palestinian community and the opportunity for a greater voice in the Knesset.

“Having just two well-organised lists significantly improved their vote-collecting efficiency and ground-level mobilisation – particularly for Ra’am, the Islamist party, which ran a much more efficient campaign than usual,” Roi Zur, a lecturer at Essex University and specialist in Israeli voting behaviour and election strategies, told Al Jazeera.

A supporter of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reacts to the first exit polls at a Likud party election event in Jerusalem, October 27, 2026 [Abir Sultan/EPA]

“The broader shift, however, comes down to how voters view their place in Israeli politics,” he added, “especially following October 7 and the subsequent war,” Zur added.

“On one hand, many voters feel more integrated into Israeli society, driven by shifts in how the public processed both the October 7 attacks and the government’s subsequent policies, making them feel more invested in the political system.”

However, both blocs ran campaigns that critics have described as profoundly racist. Likud spent much of the election race making unsubstantiated claims that the opposition was planning to form a government reliant on Arab parties after the vote, while petitioning to bar the Joint List from running.

On the opposition side, Lieberman ruled out a coalition with either Arab or ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) parties, while Together’s Naftali Bennett, whose 2021-22 coalition included Ra’am, told an activists’ conference there was “no mandate” to form a government with Arab parties after the October 7 attack.

“The ‘opposition’ bloc continues to think you beat Bibi by being Bibi-lite, offering no substantive alternative or hope,” said former government adviser Daniel Levy, using a common nickname for the Israeli prime minister. “Really, the opposition got what they deserved,” he added, arguing it would have won the election if its members’ commitment to removing Netanyahu had outweighed their “commitment to a racist ethno-centric version of Zionism”.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, whose previous government included the Arab Ra’am Party, votes in Ra’anana, Israel, October 27, 2026 [Nir Elias/Reuters]

Levy sees four possible scenarios ahead for either bloc, listed in no particular order: the possibility of a new election; Likud drawing enough defectors from the right of the opposition to form a government; a so-called “unity government” led by Netanyahu that draws on the right across the Knesset; and “Eisenkot and company biting the bullet and using the anti-Netanyahu majority to form a minority government with Arab support,” he said.

“Even if they announce it’s time-limited before another election, the Arab parties’ asking price will not be particularly high,” he said, with the caveat that he considered such a coalition unlikely.

Wheeling and dealing

The chance of defection amidst what is seen as a highly polarised society remains unclear.

Much of the Eisenkot bloc’s campaign, and by extension its vote, rested upon opposition to the de facto exemption from military service offered by the Likud-led government to the Haredi parties in return for their support in the Knesset. Rivalling the pressure to extend the draft to Israel’s ultra-Orthodox youth were the calls for an independent inquiry into the government’s alleged security failings before the October 7 attack, calls rendered more pressing in light of the reports of the alleged advance warnings given by the United Arab Emirates and Egypt.

“I think it would be very hard to see Eisenkot working with anyone in Netanyahu’s camp because of the ultra-Orthodox draft issue and because of October 7,” said Mairav Zonszein, an analyst with the Crisis Group. “His main demands are a state commission of inquiry and a universal draft for everyone, so he couldn’t work with a lot of the partners there, including Netanyahu,” she added.

“However, Bennett and Lieberman are different stories. Bennett has swerved once before,” she said, referring to him reneging on election promises and working with Ra’am in 2021.

“Lieberman, as much as he hates Netanyahu, is also a very hard-right politician,” she said of the likelihood of Yisrael Beiteinu allying with Likud to prevent any liberal-leaning politics.

For now, though, speculation continues. For some, including Levy, that includes the possibility of the Netanyahu government seeking a military escalation, potentially against Iran, as a pretext to establish an emergency government.

For others, such as Israeli political psychologist Daniel Bar Tal of Tel Aviv University, the future rests upon the more prosaic mathematics of a government coalition.

“It is a very challenging moment in the history of Israel,” he said, reflecting on the many opportunities to gain power missed by the opposition.

“It is hard to know [what will happen] because the majority of Israelis are rightists, racists, religious and nationalists,” he said, before cutting to the heart of the dilemma faced by many in Israel on the day after the election: “They want change but do not want to cooperate with Arab parties.”

由于两大阵营均未获得多数席位，各党派面临抉择：要么打破与阿拉伯盟友结盟的禁忌，要么重返选举。

一名支持者在等待极右翼政党奥兹玛·耶胡迪特党领导人伊塔马尔·本-格维尔到来时做出手势。[伊利亚·叶菲莫维奇/法新社]

由于以色列执政党和反对党联盟均未能在以色列大选中获得多数席位，而且双方似乎都不愿与可能组建联合政府的阿拉伯政党结盟，因此人们对未来政府的组成越来越感到好奇。

周二举行的投票被誉为以色列历史上最重要的投票之一，投票率达到合格选民的 77.7%，是自 1999 年以来的最高水平。

内塔尼亚胡概述政绩和未来计划（共4条），利库德集团在以色列民调中领先

以色列右翼在计票期间发表挑衅性言论（共4条，此为第2条）

以色列股市下跌，出口民调显示选举结果不明朗（共4条记录，此为第3条）。

问题 4（共 4 题）：你能组建以色列的下一届联合政府吗？

截至周三下午，近 80% 的选票已经统计完毕，以总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡的利库德集团为核心的即将卸任的联盟获得了 54 个席位，距离组建执政联盟所需的 61 个席位还差 1 个。

前军事总参谋长加迪·艾森科特自诩为犹太复国主义反对派，其成员来自亚伊尔·戈兰相对左翼的民主党和阿维格多·利伯曼极右翼的以色列家园党等各种不同的政党，共获得 49 个席位，在拥有 120 个席位的以色列议会中也未能获得执政多数。

理论上，掌握权力平衡的是阿拉伯人主导的拉姆党和联合名单党，它们拥有 17 个席位，足以让任何一个联盟获得多数席位，从而任命议长、通过立法并组建一个有效的政府。

不过，这些数字并非最终结果，最终统计结果预计将于周五公布，官方结果将于11月4日正式发布。

接下来发生的事情，既是程序问题，也是政治问题。

伊萨克·赫尔佐格总统将先咨询各党派领导人，了解他们属意的总理人选，然后再委任他认为最有希望组建政府的候选人。该候选人有28天的时间组建联合政府，并可申请14天的延期。如果组建失败，执政授权可以移交给另一位议员；如果该议员也未能成功组建联合政府，则议会解散，以色列民众将再次举行大选，现任内阁将继续留任，作为看守政府。

据一些估计，占以色列总人口五分之一的巴勒斯坦公民的投票率达到了约 80%，也高于 1999 年的数据。

分析人士指出，这波浪潮是由利库德集团领导的政府对以色列-巴勒斯坦少数族裔的残酷对待所推动的，尤其是在2023年10月7日哈马斯领导的袭击事件之后，这种对待方式显著加剧，该袭击事件引发了以色列对加沙地带巴勒斯坦人的种族灭绝战争。内塔尼亚胡即将卸任的政府是以色列历史上最右翼的政府，其成员包括国家安全部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔和财政部长贝扎莱尔·斯莫特里奇等极右翼人士，他们针对巴勒斯坦人的政策和言论实际上使他成为了亲阿拉伯政党的招募者。

分析人士还将这一强劲表现归功于组织良好的竞选活动，该活动旨在满足以色列巴勒斯坦社区的要求，并争取在以色列议会中拥有更大的发言权。

“仅仅两个组织良好的名单就显著提高了他们的拉票效率和基层动员能力——尤其是对于伊斯兰政党拉姆党而言，他们的竞选活动比以往更加高效，”埃塞克斯大学讲师、以色列投票行为和选举策略专家罗伊·祖尔告诉半岛电视台。

2026年10月27日，在耶路撒冷举行的利库德集团选举活动上，一名以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的支持者对首批出口民调结果做出反应。[Abir Sultan/EPA]

“然而，更广泛的转变归根结底取决于选民如何看待自己在以色列政治中的地位，”他补充道，“尤其是在10月7日事件和随后的战争之后，”祖尔补充道。

“一方面，许多选民感到自己更加融入以色列社会，这源于公众对 10 月 7 日袭击事件和政府后续政策的反应方式发生了转变，使他们对政治体系更加投入。”

然而，这两个阵营的竞选活动都被批评人士形容为带有严重的种族主义色彩。利库德集团在竞选期间不断散布未经证实的言论，声称反对派计划在选举后组建一个依赖阿拉伯政党的政府，同时还发起请愿，试图阻止联合名单党参选。

反对派方面，利伯曼排除了与阿拉伯政党或极端正统派（哈雷迪）政党组建联合政府的可能性，而“团结党”的纳夫塔利·贝内特（其 2021-22 年的联合政府成员包括拉姆党）在一次活动人士会议上表示，在 10 月 7 日袭击事件发生后，与阿拉伯政党组建政府“没有授权”。

“反对派阵营仍然认为，只要做个‘轻量级’的内塔尼亚胡就能打败他，却拿不出任何实质性的替代方案或希望，”前政府顾问丹尼尔·列维说道，他用的是以色列总理内塔尼亚胡的常用昵称。“说真的，反对派是咎由自取，”他补充道，并认为如果反对派成员致力于推翻内塔尼亚胡的决心超过了他们对“种族主义的、以民族为中心的犹太复国主义”的执着，他们本可以赢得选举。

以色列前总理纳夫塔利·贝内特（其前任政府成员包括阿拉伯拉姆党）于2026年10月27日在以色列拉阿纳纳投票。[尼尔·埃利亚斯/路透社]

莱维认为，对于这两个阵营来说，未来可能会出现四种情况，排名不分先后：重新举行选举的可能性；利库德集团从反对派右翼中吸纳足够多的叛逃者组建政府；由内塔尼亚胡领导的所谓“联合政府”，该政府吸纳了议会中整个右翼阵营的力量；以及“艾森科特及其同伙咬紧牙关，利用反内塔尼亚胡的多数派力量，组建一个获得阿拉伯国家支持的少数派政府”。

“即使他们宣布该联盟是在下次选举前限时的，阿拉伯政党的要价也不会特别高，”他说道，但同时他也表示，他认为这样的联盟不太可能出现。

幕后交易

在一个被视为高度两极分化的社会中，出现叛逃的可能性仍然不明朗。

艾森科特联盟的竞选活动，以及由此产生的选票，很大程度上都围绕着反对利库德集团领导的政府向哈雷迪政党提供事实上的兵役豁免权，以此换取他们在议会的支持。除了要求将征兵范围扩大到以色列极端正统派青年之外，还有人呼吁对政府在10月7日袭击事件发生前涉嫌的安全失职进行独立调查。鉴于有报道称阿联酋和埃及曾提前发出预警，这些呼吁显得更加迫切。

“我认为，由于极端正统派征兵问题以及10月7日事件，艾森科特很难与内塔尼亚胡阵营的任何人合作，”危机组织分析师迈拉夫·宗斯泽因表示。“他的主要诉求是成立国家调查委员会和实行全民通用征兵制，因此他无法与包括内塔尼亚胡在内的许多合作伙伴合作，”她补充道。

“然而，贝内特和利伯曼的情况有所不同。贝内特以前就曾食言过，”她说道，指的是他违背了竞选承诺，并在2021年与拉姆合作。

“利伯曼虽然非常憎恨内塔尼亚胡，但他也是一位非常强硬的右翼政治家，”她谈到以色列家园党与利库德集团结盟以阻止任何自由主义倾向的政治的可能性时说道。

不过，目前各种猜测仍在继续。包括莱维在内的一些人认为，内塔尼亚胡政府可能寻求军事升级，目标可能是伊朗，以此为借口组建紧急政府。

对于另一些人，例如特拉维夫大学的以色列政治心理学家丹尼尔·巴尔·塔尔来说，未来取决于政府联盟这种更为平凡的数学问题。

“这是以色列历史上一个极具挑战性的时刻，”他反思反对派错失的多次夺取政权的机会时说道。

“很难知道（将会发生什么），因为大多数以色列人都是右翼分子、种族主义者、宗教人士和民族主义者，”他说道，然后直指以色列在选举后第二天面临的困境的核心：“他们想要改变，但又不想与阿拉伯政党合作。”