Fed's hawkish hold strengthens case for BOK's hike in November

The U.S. Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate at 3.75 to 4 percent on Wednesday, strengthening the case for the Bank of Korea to raise its rate as early as November, analysts said Thursday. Korea’s stronger-than-expected growth and inflation above the BOK’s target have added to expectations of further tightening. The BOK held its rate at 3 percent last Thursday and is scheduled to meet again on Nov. 26. The central bank said it would closely monitor domestic and foreign exchange markets amid external uncertainties.

Korea’s real gross domestic product grew 1 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter, compared with the BOK’s forecast of 0.3 percent.

Consumer inflation was 2.9 percent in September, above the BOK’s 2 percent target.

Citibank economist Kim Jin-wook projected quarter-point BOK rate increases in November 2026 and February 2027, bringing the rate to a terminal level of 3.5 percent.

BOK Senior Deputy Gov. Kwon Min-soo cited Middle East tensions, fiscal sustainability concerns in major economies and uncertainty surrounding artificial intelligence investment as external risks.

Published Oct 29, 2026 2:18 pm KST

Bank of Korea Gov. Shin Hyun-song, center, and Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh, left, attend the 2026 G20 Financial meetings in Asheville, N.C., Aug. 31 (local time). AFP-Yonhap

The U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish decision to hold interest rates steady has strengthened the case for the Bank of Korea (BOK) to raise its benchmark rate as early as next month, as stronger-than-expected growth and persistent inflation reinforce the need for further monetary tightening, analysts said Thursday.

The Fed kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75 to 4 percent on Wednesday (local time), but signaled that inflation remains elevated and reaffirmed its commitment to bringing inflation back to its 2 percent target.

The decision has kept markets focused on the possibility of another Fed rate hike in December, raising the prospect that the BOK could pursue further tightening before its U.S. counterpart makes its next move.

The BOK held its benchmark rate at 3 percent at its rate-setting meeting last Thursday, saying it needed more time to assess domestic and external economic conditions and the effects of two previous rate hikes.

Recent economic data have strengthened the case for further tightening.

Korea's real gross domestic product grew 1 percent in the third quarter from the previous quarter, far exceeding the BOK's forecast of 0.3 percent. Consumer inflation stood at 2.9 percent in September, remaining well above the central bank's 2 percent target.

The combination of stronger growth and persistent inflation may prompt the central bank to deliver a rate hike at its next Monetary Policy Board meeting on Nov. 26.

Citibank economist Kim Jin-wook expects the BOK to maintain its monetary tightening stance, with two more rate hikes projected through next year.

"We maintain our view that the BOK is likely to hike rates by 0.25 percentage point each in November 2026 and February 2027, toward a 3.5 percent terminal rate," Kim said in a report.

Following the Fed's latest decision, the BOK cautioned that external uncertainties remain, citing persistent tensions in the Middle East, concerns over fiscal sustainability in major economies and uncertainty surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) investment.

"Although the Fed held rates steady overnight as expected, external risk factors remain, including persistent tensions in the Middle East, concerns over fiscal sustainability in major economies and uncertainty surrounding AI investment," BOK Senior Deputy Gov. Kwon Min-soo said during a meeting Thursday.

"We will remain particularly vigilant and closely monitor domestic financial and foreign exchange markets," he said.

分析人士周四表示，美联储周三将基准利率维持在3.75%至4%的区间，这增强了韩国央行最早可能在11月加息的可能性。韩国经济增长强于预期，且通胀率高于韩国央行的目标，这些都加剧了市场对进一步收紧货币政策的预期。韩国央行上周四将利率维持在3%不变，并定于11月26日再次召开会议。韩国央行表示，鉴于外部环境的不确定性，将密切关注国内外外汇市场。

韩国第三季度实际国内生产总值环比增长1%，高于韩国央行预测的0.3%。

9月份消费者通胀率为2.9%，高于韩国央行2%的目标。

花旗银行经济学家金镇旭预测，韩国央行将在 2026 年 11 月和 2027 年 2 月两次加​​息，使利率最终达到 3.5%。

韩国央行高级副行长权珉洙指出，中东紧张局势、主要经济体的财政可持续性问题以及人工智能投资的不确定性是外部风险。

发布于2026年10月29日下午2:18（韩国标准时间）

韩国央行行长申铉松（中）和美联储主席凯文·沃什（左）于8月31日（当地时间）在北卡罗来纳州阿什维尔出席2026年二十国集团（G20）财长会议。法新社-韩联社

分析人士周四表示，美联储维持利率不变的鹰派决定，加强了韩国央行最早于下个月提高基准利率的理由，因为强于预期的经济增长和持续的通胀强化了进一步收紧货币政策的必要性。

美联储周三（当地时间）维持基准利率在 3.75% 至 4% 不变，但表示通胀仍然高企，并重申致力于将通胀率拉回 2% 的目标水平。

这一决定让市场继续关注美联储在 12 月份再次加息的可能性，也提高了韩国央行可能在美国央行采取下一步行动之前进一步收紧货币政策的预期。

韩国央行在上周四的利率会议上维持基准利率在3%不变，称需要更多时间来评估国内外经济状况以及前两次加息的影响。

近期经济数据进一步强化了进一步收紧货币政策的必要性。

韩国第三季度实际国内生产总值环比增长1%，远超韩国央行0.3%的预期。9月份消费者通胀率为2.9%，仍远高于央行2%的目标。

经济增速加快和通胀持续走高可能会促使央行在11月26日举行的下一次货币政策委员会会议上宣布加息。

花旗银行经济学家金镇旭预计韩国央行将维持货币紧缩政策，预计明年还将加息两次。

金在一份报告中表示：“我们仍然认为，韩国央行可能会在2026年11月和2027年2月分别加息0.25个百分点，最终利率将达到3.5%。”

在美联储最新决定之后，韩国央行警告称，外部不确定性依然存在，并指出中东持续紧张局势、主要经济体的财政可持续性问题以及人工智能（AI）投资的不确定性。

韩国央行高级副行长权珉洙在周四的会议上表示：“尽管美联储如预期般维持隔夜利率不变，但外部风险因素依然存在，包括中东持续紧张局势、主要经济体财政可持续性问题以及人工智能投资的不确定性。”

他说：“我们将继续保持高度警惕，密切关注国内金融和外汇市场。”