Chinese drill near Taiwan seen as test run for blockade, message to US

NEW TAIPEI CITY, Taiwan — China’s two days of military drills in waters surrounding Taiwan last month came closer than ever to the self-ruled island’s coast and were the largest-scale exercises in more than three years of exercises partly aimed at deterring a U.S. role in an actual war, analysts say.

A rocket artillery unit participating in the People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command’s “Justice Mission 2025” drills fired shells into the sea into the contiguous zone 24 nautical miles off Taiwan’s coast on Dec. 30, the National Defense Ministry told domestic media.

The unit’s fire took place during PLA drills in five tracts of ocean — described overall as practice for blocking major Taiwanese air and sea routes with aircraft and naval assets, but this time without aircraft carriers. Carriers have joined other drills and are seen helping to ward off external intervention in the event of conflict.

Experts in Taipei said December’s drills were the biggest since 2022, when China began using military exercises to vent anger toward Taiwan’s defiance of Beijing and such U.S. moves as arms sales to Taipei. China has the world’s largest military in terms of active personnel, according to the market research firm Statista.

“The latest Justice Mission 2025 is quantitatively the second biggest,” said Enrico Cau, an associate researcher at the Taiwan Strategy Research Association think tank.

“In terms of complexity, like tactics and mission goals, all the exercises seem to have covered different missions and tasks, some overlapping, some different,” Cau said.

In particular, the “range” of the zones used for the latest exercises was “the largest”, said Chen Yi-fan, assistant professor in the Diplomacy and International Relations Department at Taiwan’s Tamkang University.

Beijing has claimed sovereignty over Taiwan for more than seven decades and threatened force to take it, if necessary. Years of opinion polls in Taiwan show preference for self-rule.

China sees Taiwan President Lai Ching-te as a champion for independence, and talks between the two sides fell apart in 2016.

In August 2022 — the biggest ever Taiwan-targeted drill — the PLA held four days of exercises after Nancy Pelosi, then the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visited Taipei. They included air sorties, ballistic missile tests and naval deployments.

The PLA has held seven of these drills since the Pelosi visit, Chen said.

Taiwan’s National Defense Ministry said it had tracked 60 sorties by Chinese fighters, bombers, drones and support aircraft in the 24 hours ending at 6 a.m. on Dec. 30. It said 44 of those crossed a median line in the 100-kilometer-wide Taiwan Strait that separates the two sides.

The ministry said it logged 40 sorties and eight median line crossings the following day.

Simulated PLA blockage of major Taiwanese sea and air routes disrupted hundreds of civilian flights, many connecting Taiwan to its outlying islands, domestic media outlets said.

Triggers for the December drills include the announcement of an $11.1 billion U.S. arms package for Taiwan alongside Taiwan’s own pledge to raise defense spending, Chen said.

The U.S. package is “specifically designed to tear apart the blockade concept that the PLA just showcased,” said Sean Su, a Taiwan businessperson and longtime political commentator.

The 1979 U.S. Taiwan Relations Act allows the United States to help defend Taiwan, if attacked, but Washington is vague about what it would offer and maintains diplomatic relations with Beijing rather than with Taipei.

Chinese robot dogs and “intelligent warfare” used on Dec. 29 and 30 looked good on television, Su said, but he said it is unclear whether the PLA could sustain the actions of the two days of drills during a longer conflict.

“The sustainability question is one Beijing doesn’t want to answer,” Su said. “The PLA has never shown its ability to sustain a blockade for weeks because they need to handle personnel shifts and logistics while operating under enemy fire and maintaining sensor-to-shooter connections against and potentially U.S. and Japanese interference.”

From a Chinese perspective, the Dec. 29-30 drills were “successfully completed,” PLA Eastern Theater Command Senior Captain Li Xi said via the military’s website. The command will now “remain on high alert at all times, keep strengthening combat readiness through arduous training, resolutely thwart the attempts of ‘Taiwan Independence’ separatists and external intervention, and firmly safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Li said.

Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, a government body in charge of China affairs, criticized the drills on Dec. 29 as an “irrational” move disrupting civilian traffic, affecting the security of “life and property” and trying to change the “status quo” of relations between the two sides.

台湾新台北市——分析人士称，中国上个月在台湾周边海域举行的为期两天的军事演习比以往任何时候都更接近这个自治岛屿的海岸线，也是三年多来规模最大的演习，其部分目的是为了阻止美国在真正的战争中扮演角色。

国防部向国内媒体透露，12月30日，解放军东部战区“正义使命2025”演习中，一个火箭炮部队向台湾海岸24海里毗连区海域发射炮弹。

该部队的炮火发生在解放军在五个海域举行的演习期间——此次演习总体上被描述为使用飞机和海军力量封锁台湾主要海空航线的演练，但此次演习没有动用航空母舰。航母曾参与其他演习，并被认为有助于在发生冲突时抵御外部干预。

台北的专家表示，12月的演习是自2022年以来规模最大的一次。2022年，中国开始通过军事演习来发泄对台湾违抗北京指令以及美国向台北出售武器等举措的不满。据市场研究公司Statista的数据显示，中国拥有世界上现役军人数量最多的军队。

“最新的《正义使命2025》在数量上排名第二，”台湾战略研究协会智库的副研究员Enrico Cau表示。

“就战术和任务目标等复杂性而言，所有演习似乎都涵盖了不同的任务，有些任务有重叠，有些则不同，”考说道。

台湾淡江大学外交与国际关系系助理教授陈义凡表示，尤其值得一提的是，最新演习所用区域的“范围”是“最大的”。

北京声称对台湾拥有主权已有七十余年，并威胁必要时将以武力收复台湾。多年来台湾的民意调查显示，民众倾向于自治。

中国视台湾总统赖清德为台独斗的拥护者，双方的谈判于2016年破裂。

2022年8月，解放军举行了有史以来规模最大的针对台湾的演习，演习为期四天，此前美国众议院议长南希·佩洛西访问了台北。演习内容包括空中飞行、弹道导弹试验和海军部署。

陈说，自佩洛西访问以来，解放军已经举行了七次此类演习。

台湾国防部表示，截至12月30日早上6点的24小时内，追踪到中国战机、轰炸机、无人机和支援飞机共出动60架次。其中44架次越过了宽100公里的台湾海峡中线，该海峡将两岸分隔开来。

该部表示，第二天共记录到 40 架次飞行和 8 次穿越中央隔离带。

据台湾国内媒体报道，解放军模拟封锁台湾主要海空航线，导致数百架民用航班中断，其中许多航班连接台湾与其离岛。

陈先生表示，促成12月演习的因素包括美国宣布向台湾提供价值111亿美元的武器援助，以及台湾自身承诺增加国防开支。

台湾商人兼资深政治评论员苏世安表示，美国的这套方案“专门旨在瓦解解放军刚刚展示的封锁概念”。

1979 年的《美国台湾关系法》允许美国在台湾遭受攻击时帮助保卫台湾，但华盛顿方面对于将提供何种援助含糊其辞，并且与北京而非台北保持外交关系。

苏先生表示，12月29日和30日中国展示的机器狗和“智能战”在电视上看起来不错，但他表示，解放军能否在更长时间的冲突中维持这两天演习中的行动水平，目前尚不清楚。

苏说：“可持续性问题是北京不愿回答的。解放军从未展现出能够持续数周封锁的能力，因为他们需要在敌方火力下进行人员轮换和后勤保障，同时还要应对美国和日本可能进行的干扰，维持传感器与射击武器之间的通信。”

解放军东部战区司令员李曦大校通过军方网站表示，从中国角度来看，12月29日至30日的演习“圆满完成”。李曦说，东部战区将“时刻保持高度戒备，通过艰苦训练不断加强战备，坚决挫败‘台独’分裂分子和外部势力干涉的企图，坚决捍卫国家主权和领土完整”。

台湾负责处理中国事务的政府机构——陆委会于12月29日批评此次演习是“不理智的”，扰乱了民用交通，影响了“生命财产安全”，并试图改变两岸关系的“现状”。