Oil prices surge as US-Iran strikes intensify in Strait of Hormuz

Oil prices push China towards EVs and other trading partners as Americans face higher prices ahead of the US midterm elections.

Vessels travel in the Strait of Hormuz near the beach of Bandar Abbas, Iran [File: Majid Asgaripour/Reuters]

Oil prices are rising to nearly a six-week high amid a wave of strikes between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply travels during peacetime.

On Monday, Brent oil futures, the global benchmark, rose to hover around $97 a barrel — up 9 percent over the last five days and 19 percent over the last month. Monday’s market moves are approaching the highest point since July 24th, when prices topped $97.93.

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US West Texas Intermediate crude similarly rose to $92.27 a barrel, up 79 cents, also a near six-week high.

In recent days, strikes escalated in the Strait of Hormuz. The US hit three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, while Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it had struck three tankers and three US-linked vessels in other areas.

“This is a reflection of continued conflict and exchange of fire. The supply deficits globally are persisting, and there is little end to these shortages,” Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), told Al Jazeera.

On Monday, Saudi Aramco’s Jizan facilities were struck for the second time in the last month, according to reporting from the Financial Times that cited two people familiar with the matter.

“The fact that a Saudi refinery in Jizan was hit, possibly delaying its return to production, didn’t help,” Ziemba added.

Amid increased strikes, there’s less traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, with an average of 10 commodity ships crossing the vital chokepoint each day over the last 10 days, according to Kpler, a data analytics platform.

“Crude went back down to what the pre-war level was in early July. Then it increased again, and then it reduced again, and now it’s increasing again on this weekend’s exchange plus the Aramco attack,” Arif Gasilov, a partner at the Gasilov Group, an energy advisory firm, told Al Jazeera.

“I would say that you might eventually see an inflection point, depending on how long this keeps going on, where a ceasefire doesn’t move the market at all, maybe by just a dollar or two.”

US consumers pinched

US consumers are feeling the impact of heightened oil prices at the petrol pump. The average price for a gallon (3.78 litres) of petrol has jumped 7 cents over the course of a week, reaching $4.15 nationally on Monday, up from $4.08 this time a week ago, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), which tracks daily petrol prices.

That’s up from $4.04 this time a month ago and $2.98 from February 28th, when the US and Israel first struck Iran, marking a 39 percent increase since the war began.

Last week, diesel prices hit all-time highs at $5.85 per gallon.

“US diesel prices have never been this high, and now the countdown starts for the trickle-down to everything consumers buy… record diesel will start funnelling down into the economy,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a post on the social media platform X.

Prices have continued to climb since, with average prices on Monday topping $5.90 per gallon.

“Markets are pricing in longer disruptions. It continues to be in product markets where the biggest disruptions lie, though, including diesel,” Ziemba added.

Those price gains are weighing on Americans , who have spent an average of $764.59 per household on fuel since the war began. That’s $418.82 more than usual, according to Brown University’s Watson School of International and Public Affairs.

Ahead of the US’s September 5-7 Labor Day weekend, the unofficial end of summer and a popular time for US travel, AAA forecasts showed a 20 percent increase in flight costs compared to the same weekend last year.

Ahead of the midterm elections, the economy is emerging as a key issue for US voters — and a potential warning sign for Republicans. Polls show voters souring on President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy, with his economic approval rating falling to a new low in a recent Financial Times poll. Just 17 percent of Americans approve of his handling of the economy.

An Economist/YouGov poll similarly found that 39 percent of Americans believe Democrats are doing a better job handling the economy, compared with 32 percent who said Republicans are.

Southeast and East Asian markets rely more heavily on imports travelling through the Strait of Hormuz directly than the US, but Beijing has moved to insulate itself from the disruption by turning to domestic sources, including its strategic petroleum reserve (SPR).

“China has been managing this situation successfully since the beginning of the war. We know that China has many domestic resources, despite rising oil prices,” John Gong, an economics professor at the University of International Business and Economics, told Al Jazeera.

“China has been conserving its oil and gas consumption for quite some time now. China was prepared for these challenges,” Gong said.

He also stressed that China’s close relations with Russia give Beijing another source of supply, with Moscow able to provide nearly half of China’s daily oil needs.

China has also begun tapping into its SPR while reducing its reliance on imports, as Beijing accelerates a broader shift towards alternative energy sources and vehicles that require little or no oil to operate.

“We have national strategies focused on transitioning to clean energies like solar and green power,” Gong said. “When we look at the vehicles purchased in China, more than 50 percent of cars sold on the Chinese market are electric.”

由于美国中期选举前夕油价上涨，油价促使中国转向电动汽车和其他贸易伙伴。

船只在伊朗阿巴斯港海滩附近的霍尔木兹海峡航行。[图片：Majid Asgaripour/路透社]

由于美国和伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡发生一系列袭击事件，油价正攀升至近六周以来的最高点。和平时期，全球约五分之一的石油供应都要经过霍尔木兹海峡。

周一，全球基准布伦特原油期货价格上涨至每桶97美元附近，较过去五天上涨9%，较过去一个月上涨19%。周一的市场走势正逼近7月24日以来的最高点，当日油价曾突破每桶97.93美元。

伊朗战争：为何美国中期选举可能成为关键时刻（共4个列表，第1个）

（共4条） 受伊朗战争影响，美国柴油价格创历史新高（第2条）

美国对土耳其银行实施制裁，引发法律威胁（名单共4份，此为第3份）

伊朗总统佩泽什基安呼吁团结，美国加大经济压力（共4条，此为第4条）

美国西德克萨斯中质原油价格也上涨至每桶 92.27 美元，上涨 79 美分，同样接近六周高位。

近日，霍尔木兹海峡的袭击事件升级。美国周六袭击了三艘伊朗油轮，而伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）则表示，他们在其他地区袭击了三艘油轮和三艘与美国有关的船只。

“这反映了持续不断的冲突和交火。全球供应短缺问题依然存在，而且这种短缺似乎没有结束的迹象，”新美国安全中心（CNAS）兼职高级研究员雷切尔·齐姆巴告诉半岛电视台。

据《金融时报》援引两位知情人士的报道，沙特阿美位于吉赞的设施周一在过去一个月内第二次遭到袭击。

Ziemba补充说：“吉赞的一家沙特炼油厂遭到袭击，可能导致其恢复生产延迟，这无疑雪上加霜。”

据数据分析平台 Kpler 称，由于罢工增多，霍尔木兹海峡的交通量减少，过去 10 天里，平均每天只有 10 艘货轮通过这个重要的咽喉要道。

“原油价格在7月初回落到战前水平。然后价格再次上涨，之后又下跌，现在由于本周末的交易以及沙特阿美袭击事件，价格再次上涨，”能源咨询公司Gasilov Group的合伙人Arif Gasilov告诉半岛电视台。

“我认为，最终可能会出现一个转折点，这取决于这种情况持续多久，届时停火将完全不会对市场产生影响，可能只会影响一两美元。”

美国消费者感到压力

美国消费者正在感受到油价上涨对汽油价格的影响。据追踪每日汽油价格的美国汽车协会（AAA）的数据显示，一周内，每加仑（3.78升）汽油的平均价格上涨了7美分，周一全国平均价格达到4.15美元，高于一周前同期的4.08美元。

这比一个月前的 4.04 美元上涨了，比 2 月 28 日美国和以色列首次袭击伊朗时的 2.98 美元上涨了，自战争开始以来上涨了 39%。

上周，柴油价格达到历史新高，每加仑 5.85 美元。

GasBuddy 石油分析主管 Patrick De Haan 在社交媒体平台 X 上发帖称：“美国柴油价格从未如此之高，现在，价格上涨的趋势将开始波及消费者购买的所有商品……创纪录的柴油价格将开始流入经济领域。”

此后油价持续上涨，周一平均油价超过每加仑 5.90 美元。

“市场已经将更长时间的干扰因素纳入考量。不过，受影响最大的仍然是产品市场，包括柴油市场，”齐姆巴补充道。

这些价格上涨给美国民众带来了沉重负担，自战争开始以来，美国家庭平均每户在燃料上的支出为764.59美元。根据布朗大学沃森国际与公共事务学院的数据，这比平时高出418.82美元。

在美国劳动节长周末（9 月 5 日至 7 日）到来之前，虽然劳动节标志着夏季的非正式结束，也是美国旅游的热门时段，但 AAA 预测，与去年同期相比，机票价格将上涨 20%。

中期选举临近，经济问题正成为美国选民关注的焦点，同时也可能成为共和党的警示信号。民调显示，选民对特朗普总统的经济政策越来越不满，其经济支持率在近期《金融时报》的民调中跌至新低，仅有17%的美国人认可他的经济政策。

《经济学人》/YouGov 的一项民意调查也发现，39% 的美国人认为民主党在处理经济方面做得更好，而认为共和党做得更好的人仅占 32%。

东南亚和东亚市场比美国更依赖直接经由霍尔木兹海峡进口的商品，但北京已采取措施，通过转向国内资源（包括其战略石油储备）来避免受到干扰。

“自战争开始以来，中国一直成功地应对着这种情况。我们知道，尽管油价上涨，但中国拥有丰富的国内资源，”对外经济贸易大学经济学教授龚约翰告诉半岛电视台。

龚先生表示：“中国长期以来一直在节约石油和天然气消费，对这些挑战早有准备。”

他还强调，中国与俄罗斯的密切关系为北京提供了另一个供应来源，莫斯科能够满足中国近一半的日常石油需求。

中国也开始利用其战略石油储备，同时减少对进口的依赖，因为北京正在加速向替代能源和几乎不需要石油就能运行的汽车转型。

龚先生表示：“我们制定了国家战略，重点是向太阳能和绿色能源等清洁能源转型。从中国汽车销售情况来看，超过50%的汽车是电动汽车。”