From electrification to climate finance, how will COP31 move the needle on climate action?

The discussions on climate finance and the energy transition are critical for the region, experts say.

PHOTO: CHNG CHOON HIONG, ADOBE STOCK

Published Oct 31, 2026, 05:00 AM

Updated Oct 31, 2026, 05:00 AM

SINGAPORE – Nearly 200 countries will gather at Antalya in Turkey from Nov 9 to 20 for the UN climate change conference COP31, where they will discuss how the world can tackle climate change.

This year’s conference comes more than 10 years after the Paris Agreement was first adopted.

The global pact has three main targets: to limit global warming by reducing emissions, to ensure communities are protected from climate impacts, and to ensure developing countries get financial help from developed countries for low-emission, climate-resilient development .

Multiple observers have billed COP31 as an “implementation COP”.

This is a reference to how the conference is expected to provide guidance and solutions that help countries put in place policies and initiatives to tackle climate change, instead of just setting targets or making political statements.

Melissa Low, a research fellow studying global climate policy at the NUS Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, said: “An implementation COP should be judged less by the number of new pledges announced and more by whether existing commitments are translated into policies, investment, projects and measurable emissions reductions and resilience outcomes.”

This year’s conference will also take place against a backdrop of an escalating energy crisis due to the US-Israel war on Iran, and a spate of climate-fuelled disasters. These include the glacial floods in Nepal and Indonesian forest fires.

Ahead of the annual UN climate change conference COP31, The Straits Times highlights the key issues, their challenges and their significance for South-east Asia.

What it is: Climate finance refers to the flow of funds from developed countries to developing countries. These contributions can help developing nations achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement.

For example, financial contributions can help poorer nations shift away from fossil fuel energy sources towards cleaner options, such as renewable energy.

Funding can also help countries make their factories more efficient, or allow them to protect their forests.

Climate finance can also help developing countries do more on climate adaptation, like building sea walls to keep out the rising seas, or investing in early warning systems.

Earlier COPs have already set targets for climate finance.

For instance, at COP29 in Azerbaijan in 2024, developed countries agreed to provide US$300 billion (S$384 billion) a year in annual climate finance to developing countries – an increase from the previous US$100 billion target. The ultimate aim is to raise US$1.3 trillion annually by 2035 for countries in need, through various forms of finance.

At COP30 in Brazil in 2025, countries called for efforts to at least triple adaptation finance by 2035.

At COP31, the question will be how developed countries will meet these targets.

Areas of disagreement: Climate finance is one of the thorniest issues at every climate conference. Discussions usually centre around who pays, who receives, and through what mechanisms and vehicles.

For instance, developing countries have said that funding support should take the form of concessionary and non-debt creating instruments, such as grants, to prevent them from having to service loans at market interest rates.

Questions also remain over the flow of the funds as there is no specified timeline for disbursements.

At COP31, experts say they expect developing countries will want more predictable support to cope with climate impacts.

Poorer nations would also likely say that adaptation finance should not come from reducing mitigation finance.

This is because the costs of adapting to the changing climate will keep going up if emissions also keep rising.

Tan-Soo Jie-Sheng, director of the Institute for Environment and Sustainability at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKYSPP) said sufficiently large and distinct financing streams are needed for both climate mitigation and adaptation.

“The more warming we fail to prevent, the greater the amount of adaptation we need, the more expensive that adaptation becomes, and eventually, there will be impacts to which adaptation is extremely difficult or impossible.”

Yet, developed countries t hat are also feeling the pinch from higher energy costs, may be reluctant to make firm commitments, said sustainability consultancy firm Asia Research and Engagement’s director of research Chan Wai-Shin.

Why it matters for South-east Asia: The region is highly vulnerable to climate change. It faces a medley of hazards like rising sea levels , unbearable heat and extreme weather events intensified by climate change.

Tan-Soo Jie-Sheng says sufficiently large and distinct financing streams are needed for both climate mitigation and adaptation. PHOTO: LEE KUAN YEW SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICY

Tan-Soo Jie-Sheng says sufficiently large and distinct financing streams are needed for both climate mitigation and adaptation.

PHOTO: LEE KUAN YEW SCHOOL OF PUBLIC POLICY

Winston Chow, professor of Urban Climate at Singapore Management University, said: “We are already witnessing ourselves and our neighbours coming face to face with the impacts of climate change be it rain-driven floods in Bangkok, glacial-related floods in Nepal that affected many of us in South-east Asia, or with the wildfires driving the transboundary haze.”

At the same time, the region is developing fast and is a growing emitter of greenhouse gases.

Climate finance is crucial as it provides South-east Asian economies with the means to transition to lower-carbon options, as well as adapt to a warming region.

Moreover, some countries in the region have pledged to cut more emissions only if they receive more support in the form of finance and technology, said Melinda Martinus, a fellow at ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.

For instance, the Philippines had committed to reducing its emissions by 75% between 2025 and 2035. However, achieving this will depend on the country receiving international support. Without it, the country will only commit to achieving an up to 7% reduction in emissions.

“This means that achieving more ambitious emissions reductions depends, at least in part, on access to international finance, technology and capacity-building,” she said.

What it is: Loss and damage is a specific climate finance mechanism.

It refers to the funds paid out to developing countries to compensate them for the unavoidable climate impacts that they face due to the pollution from developed countries.

Such losses and damage include the loss of lives, infrastructure and even cultural heritage.

The money pot from the loss and damage mechanism can be used to repair devastated properties affected by climate-linked disasters or relocate people threatened by rising seas.

It can also be channelled for long-term use, such as building early warning systems or resilient infrastructure to help reduce fatalities from extreme weather events.

It is one of the more controversial areas of the climate negotiations.

Negotiations on this front took decades. It was first introduced in 2007, but countries only agreed at COP27 in 2022 to create a dedicated fund for loss and damage.

Areas of disagreement: Since the UN’s Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage was created, 27 countries have pledged to contribute a total of US$822 million to it, as at March 2026.

But only about half was received by the end of Dec 2025, according to the World Bank Group, which is the fund’s financial custodian.

As at July 2026, 176 requests have been made by 119 countries for about US$2.8 billion – more than three times the amount pledged .

No funds have been paid out to date.

On Oct 22, the fund’s board said it has set aside US$21.6 million for Nepal following the Aug 26 glacial floods. That disaster claimed about 1,500 lives, affected at least 80,000 people, and destroyed homes, schools and infrastructure like hydropower facilities.

To receive the funds, Nepal must formally apply and submit a proposal to the fund.

Asia Research and Engagement’s Chan said that developing countries are likely to want to discuss the gap between pledged and delivered finance at COP31.

Access to the fund and eligibility criteria will also remain in focus.

The speed of funds being disbursed is particularly contentious – especially when disaster-hit countries urgently need support to rebuild communities, infrastructure and livelihoods.

Why it matters for South-east Asia: The region is prone to climate disasters, but some governments are fiscally strained and need more immediate resources to help in the recovery.

Tan-Soo from the LKYSPP said countries like the Philippines, Vietnam and Indonesia face substantial economic losses from climate-driven disasters.

For example, in 2025, the tropical cyclone damage for the Philippines was 42.21 billion pesos (S$845 million), according to the country’s Development Budget Coordination Committee.

Heavy rain in September also triggered flooding and landslides in northern and central Vietnam, inundating more than 16,000 homes and damaging 22,499ha – equivalent to about 31,500 football fields – of rice, vegetables and other crops.

While considered a type of climate finance, the loss and damage fund is distinct from adaptation finance.

“Adaptation helps countries prepare for and reduce future climate risks. But even with substantial adaptation investments, some losses are unavoidable,” said Tan-Soo. “The Loss and Damage Fund addresses these remaining consequences.”

What it is: How to enable a “just transition” is likely to be one of the key issues that will be discussed at COP31.

This issue centres around people – specifically, how to ensure that the move towards a low-carbon economy will not disadvantage workers in the fossil fuel sectors, indigenous groups, and lower-income members of the community.

For example, when coal plants are shut down or forests receive more protection, workers in the factories or logging sector could lose their jobs.

Opting for cleaner energy sources in some areas could cause electricity bills to rise in the near term because of the need for new infrastructure, and this would affect lower income groups.

A just transition refers to efforts put in place to ensure these communities are not disadvantaged – through retraining programmes or governmental efforts to keep electricity prices stable, for instance.

A just transition is particularly important for developing countries, as it helps them manage the economic and social changes brought about by decarbonisation efforts.

The negotiations for this are co-chaired by Singapore’s chief negotiator for climate change Joseph Teo and Italy’s Federica Fricano.

Areas of disagreement: At COP31, countries will discuss how a just transition can be enabled. Developing countries and civil society groups will likely call for a new fund, which they can tap to design inclusive policies, train workers, and so on.

But developed countries may push back on this, saying there are many other mechanisms within the Paris Agreement that already provide funding for developing nations.

Wealthy countries favour sharing policy tools and technical expertise rather than establishing a new institution, said Climate Action Network International’s senior advisor on just transition Anabella Rosemberg.

World Resources Institute’s (WRI) director for international climate initiative David Waskow said there are many just transition initiatives under way, but they are fractured and not well-connected enough.

Currently, there are initiatives including the Just Energy Transition Partnerships in Indonesia and Vietnam, which aim to unlock financing to accelerate phasing out coal, although implementation remains challenging.

The Asian Development Bank in 2021 also launched the Energy Transition Mechanism that aims to accelerate the transition from fossil fuels to clean energy by retiring or repurposing coal-fired power plants in countries like the Philippines.

Why it matters for South-east Asia: The region has one of the world’s youngest fleets of coal plants.

An accelerated phase-out of coal could, therefore, result in stranded assets, which would mean financial losses for the operator, said ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute’s Martinus.

As mining and processing coal also provide hundreds of thousands of jobs, the transition away from coal could have significant implications for workers and communities that depend on the industry, she said.

Financial instruments such as concessional financing, grants and blended finance can help bridge the cost gap between continued coal operations and a transition to cleaner energy sources.

This is where new financial mechanisms, like transition credits, can help to provide an economic incentive for decarbonisation.

Singapore, for instance, is piloting a new class of carbon credits called transition credits, that aims to use revenue from the sale of carbon credits to close a coal plant early.

When a coal plant is closed early, some planet-warming emissions are prevented from being released. These “savings” can be sold as carbon credits to emitters.

Unless transition credits are factored in, it makes little financial sense to shut these coal plants ahead of time .

The expansion of renewable energy has also come at a cost to some communities in the region.

For example, in Malaysia, communities in Sarawak and Perak were affected by hydropower projects that have displaced them from their ancestral lands and disrupted their traditional livelihoods.

Such issues may be more rampant as renewable energy capacity in the region expands. South-east Asia’s renewable capacity stood at 120GW in 2024, and is projected to nearly triple by 2035 under today’s policy settings, according to the International Energy Agency.

Energy and electrification

What it is: The ongoing energy crisis due to the war in Iran has sparked a global reckoning over the world’s reliance on fossil fuels.

The Turkish presidency of COP31 has set an electrification target for countries to agree on at the conference.

The goal aims to increase the share of electricity in global energy demand from 20% currently to 35% by 2035 through electrification.

Electrification can help to reduce carbon emissions, when processes relying on fossil fuels are tweaked so they can rely on electricity generated from low-carbon sources instead.

For instance, switching from internal combustion engine vehicles to electric cars can reduce consumption of petroleum.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis, which has led to volatile fuel prices, could also strengthen the case for the transition away from fossil fuels for energy security, said Martinus.

Areas of disagreement: Electricity requires large, expensive infrastructure to generate, transport and distribute, according to IEA.

Some electrification investments may also require policy support to lower upfront costs or facilitate access to affordable capital, it said.

Martinus added that the transition will also need investments into supporting infrastructure such as the electricity grid and storage.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis could also lead to countries falling back on more affordable energy sources, which may not be clean, said Tan-Soo.

For example, some countries, such as Thailand and Vietnam, have pivoted to coal as a fallback.

But the long-term lesson from the crisis points in the opposite direction, he added.

“A geopolitical crisis thousands of kilometres away can suddenly impose enormous costs on countries that depend heavily on internationally traded fossil fuels,” he said.

“That strengthens the energy-security case for renewables, electrification, and energy efficiency.”

For example, he cited how Thailand is using the energy crisis to spur its development of clean power generation and reduce reliance on imported fuels to diversify its fuel mix for the long term, such as accelerating its floating solar projects at its dams and upgrading its transmission system to support renewable energy.

Why it matters for South-east Asia: Energy demand in the region is growing rapidly, with the ASEAN Centre for Energy estimating that energy demand in the region could more than double by 2050.

But fossil fuels, especially coal, dominate the region’s energy mix, according to IEA.

The region’s heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil and gas left it vulnerable during the Strait of Hormuz crisis, as volatile fuel prices disrupted economies and strained energy systems.

But discussions over the ASEAN power grid have ramped up in recent years, and the electrification agenda could help to accelerate this process to overcome obstacles to its implementation, especially if new funding comes online.

“The ASEAN Power Grid therefore fits naturally into the ‘implementation COP’ story, since the region is moving towards greater cross-border interconnection, grid infrastructure enhancements… among others,” said Low, the NUS research fellow.

“This is where international climate cooperation can help,” said Tan-Soo, citing how ASEAN, the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank have already established the APG Financing Initiative which can provide concessional finance, guarantees and other instruments to de-risk projects and crowd in private capital.

“COP31 can reinforce these efforts by mobilising additional climate finance and making regional grid infrastructure a more prominent part of the energy-transition agenda,” he added.

Climate change conference/COP

Paris climate change agreement

Environmental issues

专家表示，关于气候融资和能源转型的讨论对该地区至关重要。

图片：CHNG CHOON HIONG，Adobe Stock

发布于2026年10月31日 上午5:00

更新于2026年10月31日上午5:00

新加坡——11月9日至20日，近200个国家将齐聚土耳其安塔利亚，参加联合国气候变化大会COP31，届时他们将讨论世界如何应对气候变化。

今年的会议召开距离《巴黎协定》首次通过已超过 10 年。

该全球协议有三个主要目标：通过减少排放来限制全球变暖；确保社区免受气候影响；以及确保发展中国家从发达国家获得财政援助，以实现低排放、气候适应型发展。

多位观察员将 COP31 称为“执行型缔约方大会”。

这指的是，人们期望本次会议能够提供指导和解决方案，帮助各国制定政策和举措来应对气候变化，而不仅仅是设定目标或发表政治声明。

新加坡国立大学自然气候解决方案中心研究全球气候政策的研究员梅丽莎·洛表示：“衡量一次气候大会的执行情况，与其说是看宣布了多少新的承诺，不如说是看现有的承诺是否转化为政策、投资、项目以及可衡量的减排和增强韧性的成果。”

今年的会议召开之际，正值美国和以色列因伊朗战争而导致能源危机不断升级，以及一系列气候引发的灾害频发。这些灾害包括尼泊尔的冰川洪水和印度尼西亚的森林火灾。

在联合国气候变化大会 COP31 召开前夕，《海峡时报》重点介绍了关键问题、挑战及其对东南亚的重要性。

什么是气候融资：气候融资是指发达国家向发展中国家提供的资金流动。这些资金可以帮助发展中国家实现《巴黎协定》的目标。

例如，财政捐助可以帮助较贫穷的国家摆脱化石燃料能源，转向更清洁的能源选择，例如可再生能源。

资金还可以帮助各国提高工厂效率，或保护森林。

气候融资还可以帮助发展中国家在气候适应方面做得更多，例如建造海堤来抵御不断上涨的海平面，或者投资建设预警系统。

此前的几届缔约方大会已经为气候融资设定了目标。

例如，在2024年于阿塞拜疆举行的COP29气候大会上，发达国家同意每年向发展中国家提供3000亿美元（约合3840亿新元）的气候融资，高于此前设定的1000亿美元目标。最终目标是到2035年，通过各种融资方式，每年为有需要的国家筹集1.3万亿美元。

在 2025 年巴西举行的 COP30 会议上，各国呼吁努力到 2035 年将适应气候变化的资金至少增加两倍。

在COP31上，问题将是发达国家将如何实现这些目标。

分歧领域：气候融资是每次气候大会上最棘手的问题之一。讨论通常围绕谁出资、谁受益以及通过何种机制和渠道展开。

例如，发展中国家表示，资金支持应采取优惠和非债务工具的形式，例如赠款，以避免它们不得不按市场利率偿还贷款。

资金流向也存在疑问，因为没有具体的拨款时间表。

专家表示，在 COP31 会议上，他们预计发展中国家将希望获得更多可预测的支持，以应对气候变化的影响。

较贫穷的国家可能还会认为，适应气候变化的资金不应该来自减少减缓气候变化的资金。

这是因为，如果排放量持续上升，适应气候变化的成本也会持续上升。

李光耀公共政策学院（LKYSPP）环境与可持续发展研究所所长陈秀杰生表示，气候减缓和适应都需要足够大且独立的资金来源。

“我们越是无法阻止气候变暖，就越需要采取适应措施，适应措施的成本就越高，最终，我们将面临一些难以适应甚至无法适应的影响。”

可持续发展咨询公司亚洲研究与参与中心的研究主管陈伟信表示，同样感受到能源成本上涨压力的发达国家可能不愿做出明确的承诺。

对东南亚的重要性：该地区极易受到气候变化的影响。它面临着一系列灾害，例如海平面上升、酷热难耐以及因气候变化而加剧的极端天气事件。

陈洙杰生表示，气候减缓和适应都需要足够规模且独立的资金来源。图片：李光耀公共政策学院

Tan-Soo Jie-Sheng 表示，气候减缓和适应都需要足够大且独立的资金来源。

照片：李光耀公共政策学院

新加坡管理大学城市气候学教授周文森表示：“我们已经亲眼目睹自己和邻国正面临气候变化的影响，无论是曼谷的暴雨引发的洪水，还是影响东南亚许多地区的尼泊尔冰川洪水，亦或是引发跨境雾霾的野火。”

与此同时，该地区发展迅速，温室气体排放量也在不断增加。

气候融资至关重要，因为它为东南亚经济体提供了向低碳选项过渡以及适应气候变暖的手段。

此外，尤索夫伊萨克东南亚研究所的研究员梅琳达·马蒂努斯表示，该地区的一些国家承诺，只有在获得更多资金和技术支持的情况下，才会减少更多排放。

例如，菲律宾承诺在2025年至2035年间将其温室气体排放量减少75%。然而，能否实现这一目标取决于该国能否获得国际支持。如果没有国际支持，该国最多只能承诺减少7%的温室气体排放量。

“这意味着，要实现更雄心勃勃的减排目标，至少部分取决于能否获得国际资金、技术和能力建设，”她说。

什么是损失和损害：损失和损害是一种特定的气候融资机制。

它指的是支付给发展中国家的资金，用于补偿它们因发达国家的污染而面临的不可避免的气候影响。

这些损失和损害包括生命损失、基础设施损失，甚至文化遗产损失。

损失和损害机制的资金池可用于修复受气候相关灾害影响的受损财产，或安置受海平面上升威胁的人们。

它还可以用于长期用途，例如建设预警系统或弹性基础设施，以帮助减少极端天气事件造成的人员伤亡。

这是气候谈判中最具争议的领域之一。

这方面的谈判持续了几十年。该议题最早于2007年提出，但各国直到2022年在COP27上才同意设立专门用于损失和损害的基金。

分歧领域：自联合国应对损失和损害基金成立以来，截至 2026 年 3 月，已有 27 个国家承诺向该基金捐款共计 8.22 亿美元。

但据该基金的金融托管机构世界银行集团称，截至 2025 年 12 月底，只收到了大约一半的款项。

截至 2026 年 7 月，119 个国家已提出 176 项请求，金额约为 28 亿美元——是承诺金额的三倍多。

截至目前，尚未支付任何款项。

10月22日，该基金董事会表示，已拨出2160万美元用于尼泊尔8月26日发生的冰川洪水灾害。这场灾难造成约1500人死亡，至少8万人受灾，房屋、学校和水电站等基础设施被毁。

尼泊尔要获得这笔资金，必须正式向该基金提出申请并提交提案。

亚洲研究与参与中心的陈表示，发展中国家可能希望在 COP31 上讨论承诺的资金与实际提供的资金之间的差距。

资金获取途径和资格标准也将继续是关注的重点。

资金拨付速度尤其引发争议——尤其是在遭受灾害的国家急需支持重建社区、基础设施和生计的时候。

对东南亚的重要性：该地区容易遭受气候灾害，但一些政府财政紧张，需要更多直接资源来帮助灾后恢复。

李光耀公共政策研究所的谭洙表示，菲律宾、越南和印度尼西亚等国正面临气候灾害造成的巨大经济损失。

例如，根据菲律宾发展预算协调委员会的数据，到 2025 年，热带气旋给菲律宾造成的损失将达到 422.1 亿比索（约合 8.45 亿新元）。

9 月份的强降雨还引发了越南北部和中部地区的洪水和山体滑坡，导致超过 16,000 户家庭被淹，22,499 公顷（相当于约 31,500 个足球场）的稻米、蔬菜和其他农作物遭到破坏。

虽然损失和损害基金被认为是一种气候融资，但它与适应融资有所不同。

“适应措施有助于各国为应对和降低未来的气候风险做好准备。但即便投入大量资金进行适应，一些损失仍然无法避免，”谭洙说。“损失和损害基金正是为了应对这些遗留后果而设立的。”

内容：如何实现“公正转型”很可能是 COP31 将要讨论的关键问题之一。

这个问题的核心是人——具体来说，是如何确保向低碳经济转型不会使化石燃料行业的工人、土著群体和社区中的低收入成员处于不利地位。

例如，当燃煤电厂关闭或森林得到更多保护时，工厂或伐木行业的工人可能会失业。

在某些地区选择更清洁的能源可能会导致短期内电费上涨，因为需要建设新的基础设施，这将对低收入群体造成影响。

公正转型是指为确保这些社区不会处于不利地位而采取的措施，例如通过再培训计划或政府努力保持电价稳定等。

公正转型对发展中国家尤为重要，因为它有助于它们应对脱碳努力带来的经济和社会变革。

此次谈判由新加坡气候变化首席谈判代表约瑟夫·张和意大利的费代丽卡·弗里卡诺共同主持。

分歧领域：在COP31会议上，各国将讨论如何实现公正转型。发展中国家和民间社会团体可能会呼吁设立一项新基金，用于制定包容性政策、培训工人等等。

但发达国家可能会对此提出异议，称《巴黎协定》中已有许多其他机制为发展中国家提供资金。

国际气候行动网络公正转型高级顾问安娜贝拉·罗森伯格表示，富裕国家倾向于共享政策工具和技术专长，而不是建立新的机构。

世界资源研究所 (WRI) 国际气候倡议主任大卫·瓦斯科表示，目前有很多公正转型倡议正在进行中，但它们各自为政，联系不够紧密。

目前，包括印度尼西亚和越南的“公正能源转型伙伴关系”在内的一些倡议旨在释放资金，加速逐步淘汰煤炭，但实施仍然面临挑战。

亚洲开发银行于 2021 年启动了能源转型机制，旨在通过淘汰或改造菲律宾等国的燃煤电厂，加速从化石燃料向清洁能源的转型。

对东南亚的重要性：该地区拥有世界上最年轻的燃煤电厂之一。

因此，加速淘汰煤炭可能会导致资产搁浅，这意味着运营商将遭受经济损失，尤索夫伊萨克东南亚研究所的马丁努斯表示。

她表示，由于煤炭开采和加工也提供了数十万个就业岗位，因此煤炭行业的转型可能会对依赖该行业的工人和社区产生重大影响。

优惠融资、赠款和混合融资等金融工具可以帮助弥合煤炭持续运营与向清洁能源转型之间的成本差距。

正是在这种情况下，转型信贷等新的金融机制可以帮助为脱碳提供经济激励。

例如，新加坡正在试行一种名为“转型碳信用额”的新型碳信用额，其目标是利用出售碳信用额的收入提前关闭燃煤电厂。

燃煤电厂提前关闭可以阻止部分导致全球变暖的温室气体排放。这些“节省”的排放量可以作为碳信用额出售给排放者。

除非考虑过渡期补贴，否则提前关闭这些燃煤电厂在经济上意义不大。

可再生能源的扩张也给该地区的一些社区带来了代价。

例如，在马来西亚，砂拉越和霹雳州的社区受到水电项目的影响，被迫离开祖传土地，并破坏了他们的传统生计。

随着该地区可再生能源装机容量的扩大，此类问题可能会更加普遍。国际能源署的数据显示，东南亚可再生能源装机容量在2024年为120吉瓦，在目前的政策框架下，预计到2035年将增长近三倍。

能源与电气化

事件概述：伊朗战争引发的持续能源危机引发了全球对世界对化石燃料依赖程度的反思。

土耳其担任 COP31 主席国期间，为各国在会议上商定了电气化目标。

该目标旨在通过电气化，将电力在全球能源需求中的份额从目前的 20% 提高到 2035 年的 35%。

电气化可以帮助减少碳排放，方法是调整依赖化石燃料的生产流程，使其能够使用低碳能源产生的电力。

例如，从内燃机汽车转向电动汽车可以减少石油消耗。

马蒂努斯表示，霍尔木兹海峡危机导致燃料价格波动，这也可能加强人们为了能源安全而从化石燃料转型的必要性。

分歧点：国际能源署表示，电力生产、输送和分配需要庞大而昂贵的基础设施。

报告称，一些电气化投资可能还需要政策支持，以降低前期成本或促进获得负担得起的资金。

马蒂努斯补充说，转型还需要对电网和储能等配套基础设施进行投资。

Tan-Soo表示，霍尔木兹海峡危机也可能导致各国转而使用更便宜的能源，而这些能源可能并不清洁。

例如，泰国和越南等一些国家已经转向煤炭作为备用能源。

但他补充说，从这场危机中得到的长期教训却指向相反的方向。

他说：“远在数千公里之外的地缘政治危机，可能会突然给严重依赖国际贸易化石燃料的国家带来巨大的损失。”

“这进一步强化了可再生能源、电气化和能源效率在能源安全方面的必要性。”

例如，他举例说，泰国正在利用能源危机来推动清洁能源发电的发展，减少对进口燃料的依赖，以实现燃料结构的长期多元化，例如加快在水坝建设漂浮式太阳能项目，并升级输电系统以支持可再生能源。

对东南亚的重要性：该地区的能源需求正在迅速增长，东盟能源中心估计，到 2050 年，该地区的能源需求可能会翻一番以上。

但据国际能源署称，化石燃料，尤其是煤炭，在该地区的能源结构中占据主导地位。

该地区对中东石油和天然气的严重依赖使其在霍尔木兹海峡危机期间变得脆弱，因为波动的燃料价格扰乱了经济并给能源系统带来了压力。

但近年来，关于东盟电网的讨论日益增多，电气化议程可以帮助加快这一进程，克服实施过程中的障碍，尤其是在新的资金到位的情况下。

“因此，东盟电网自然而然地融入了‘实施COP’的理念中，因为该地区正在朝着更大的跨境互联互通、电网基础设施改进等方向发展，”新加坡国立大学研究员Low表示。

“国际气候合作可以在这方面发挥作用，”谭洙说道，并指出东盟、亚洲开发银行和世界银行已经建立了亚太经合组织融资倡议，该倡议可以提供优惠融资、担保和其他工具来降低项目风险并吸引私人资本。

他补充说：“COP31 可以通过调动更多气候资金，并将区域电网基础设施作为能源转型议程中更突出的一部分，来加强这些努力。”

气候变化大会/COP

《巴黎气候变化协定》

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