Russia seen ready for big troop move year after Ukraine truce: Dutch

PARIS — Russia is seen ready to execute a “large scale” troop move about one year after the conclusion of a ceasefire or peace in Ukraine, Dutch Minister of Defence Ruben Brekelmans said in a speech at a security conference on Thursday, citing the military intelligence service of the Netherlands.

Brekelmans asked his audience in the Dutch town of Baarn to imagine Russian President Vladimir Putin stationing hundreds of thousands of troops on the border with the Baltic countries for a large-scale exercise. Ukraine’s experience shows “we know only one week in advance” whether such a move would indeed be an exercise or a preparation for an attack, he said.

The Dutch threat assessment appears even more acute than warnings by European Commissioner for Defence Andrius Kubilius that Russia may be ready to test NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause by 2030, citing Danish and German intel. The European Commission is pushing European Union countries for more defense spending to build up a credible military deterrent to Russia by the end of the decade.

Russia will be able to free up “significant” military resources in case the war in Ukraine stops or freezes, thus increasing its military capability to pose a credible threat to NATO countries, the Danish Defence Intelligence Service assessed in a February report. In that case, Russia would be ready to fight a regional war in the Baltic Sea area within about two years, according to the DDIS.

“We don’t know exactly how Putin will test NATO,” Brekelmans said. “We do know that if Putin, after Ukraine, attacks a neighboring country that is in NATO, then we are part of it. Then the Netherlands must also help defend NATO territory. Our membership of NATO provides the Netherlands protection, but also a responsibility. An attack on one is an attack on all.”

The Netherlands has based troops in Lithuania as part of a NATO deployment, and has F-35s jets stationed in Estonia until the end of March for air policing duties over the Baltic Sea region.

Brekelmans said Putin has repeatedly said he wants revenge for the breakup of the Soviet Union, and wants to restore its sphere of influence. The Dutch minister said Russia only continues to invest more in its war industry and in recruiting soldiers.

He said the Russian economy is running entirely on the war industry, and the country will face “a big problem” should thousands of soldiers return to society with post-traumatic stress disorder.

“In short, Putin has the intention, capabilities and incentives to continue his aggression beyond Ukraine,” Brekelmans said.

The Netherlands is considering what security guarantees are needed to ensure a “just and lasting peace” in Ukraine, and needs to be ready for potential participation in a European military mission there, should that political decision be taken, according to the minister.

“Neither are on the table yet, but it is essential that we prepare,” Brekelmans said. “Especially now that we have to take into account the unpredictability of U.S. President Donald Trump. And the U.S. demand that Europe take more responsibility for its own security.”

Brekelmans said the Netherlands faces almost daily hybrid attacks, including cyberattacks on hospitals and maritime ports, espionage and sabotage preparations. He cited cases of unidentified drones near military bases, fishing boats that photograph petrochemical installations, and vessels on the North Sea that are secretly mapping internet cables, gas pipes and wind-energy parks.

He said the Netherlands is in fact no longer living in peace, but finds itself in a grey zone in between war and peace. “We’re not at war with Russia, but Russia, in hybrid form, is with us.”

The Netherlands earlier this week announced plans to increase its defense personnel to 100,000 in the coming five years, up from 74,000 now. The force may ultimately grow to 200,000, which Brekelmans said would be the biggest increase since the end of the Cold War. To be able to scale up or down quickly, about a third of the new personnel would be reservists, the minister said.

Rudy Ruitenberg is a Europe correspondent for Defense News. He started his career at Bloomberg News and has experience reporting on technology, commodity markets and politics.

巴黎——荷兰国防大臣鲁本·布雷克尔曼斯周四在一次安全会议上发表讲话时援引荷兰军事情报部门的消息称，俄罗斯准备在乌克兰停火或和平协议达成约一年后进行“大规模”的部队调动。

布雷克尔曼斯在荷兰巴恩向听众提出一个设想：俄罗斯总统普京在波罗的海三国边境部署数十万军队，进行大规模军事演习。他指出，乌克兰的经验表明，“我们只能提前一周知道”这样的举动究竟是演习还是进攻准备。

荷兰的威胁评估似乎比欧盟国防委员安德留斯·库比柳斯的警告更为尖锐。库比柳斯援引丹麦和德国的情报称，俄罗斯可能准备在2030年前试探北约第五条共同防御条款。欧盟委员会正敦促欧盟成员国增加国防开支，以期在本十年末之前建立起对俄罗斯具有可信度的军事威慑力量。

丹麦国防情报局在2月份的一份报告中评估认为，如果乌克兰战争停止或冻结，俄罗斯将能够释放“大量”军事资源，从而增强其对北约国家构成切实威胁的军事能力。该机构还指出，在这种情况下，俄罗斯将在大约两年内做好在波罗的海地区发动区域战争的准备。

“我们并不确切知道普京会如何试探北约，”布雷克尔曼斯说。“但我们知道，如果普京在乌克兰之后攻击一个北约邻国，那么我们也是受害者。届时，荷兰也必须协助保卫北约领土。北约成员国身份为荷兰提供保护，同时也赋予荷兰责任。攻击一个成员国就是攻击所有成员国。”

作为北约部署的一部分，荷兰已在立陶宛驻扎军队，并在爱沙尼亚部署了 F-35 战机，直至 3 月底，用于在波罗的海地区执行空中警戒任务。

布雷克尔曼斯表示，普京曾多次声称要为苏联解体进行报复，并希望恢复苏联的影响范围。这位荷兰部长还表示，俄罗斯只会继续加大对军工产业和征兵的投入。

他说，俄罗斯经济完全依赖于军工产业，如果成千上万的士兵带着创伤后应激障碍重返社会，该国将面临“一个大问题”。

“简而言之，普京有意愿、有能力、也有动机将侵略行径扩展到乌克兰以外，”布雷克尔曼斯说。

据这位部长称，荷兰正在考虑需要哪些安全保障才能确保乌克兰的“公正持久和平”，并且需要做好准备，以应对可能参与欧洲在乌克兰的军事行动（如果做出这一政治决定）。

“这两项提议目前都还没有提上议程，但做好准备至关重要，”布雷克尔曼斯说。“尤其是在当前形势下，我们必须考虑到美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的不可预测性。而且，美国还要求欧洲承担更多自身安全责任。”

布雷克尔曼斯表示，荷兰几乎每天都面临混合型攻击，包括针对医院和海港的网络攻击、间谍活动和破坏活动的策划。他列举了一些案例，例如在军事基地附近发现身份不明的无人机、渔船拍摄石化设施，以及北海上的船只秘密绘制互联网电缆、天然气管道和风力发电场的地图。

他表示，荷兰实际上已不再处于和平状态，而是处于战争与和平之间的灰色地带。“我们没有与俄罗斯交战，但俄罗斯以一种混合形式与我们同在。”

荷兰本周早些时候宣布计划在未来五年内将其国防人员从目前的7.4万人增加到10万人。布雷克尔曼斯表示，这支部队最终可能扩充至20万人，这将是冷战结束以来最大的增幅。这位部长还表示，为了能够快速调整兵力规模，新增人员中约有三分之一将是预备役人员。

鲁迪·鲁伊滕贝格是《防务新闻》的欧洲记者。他的职业生涯始于彭博新闻社，拥有报道科技、大宗商品市场和政治方面的经验。