Experts warn terrorism threat is rising in Africa as US pulls back

From the Horn to the Sahel, a jihadist front is gaining ground across Africa, the Center for Strategic and International Studies warned in its annual risk analysis.

The “Global Terrorism Threat Assessment 2026″ identifies terrorism on the continent as “the greatest uncertainty,” citing the rising capabilities of al-Qaida and Islamic State affiliates.

“Unlike the Middle East’s terrorist organizations, most African terrorist groups are unquestionably ascendant,” the authors wrote, pointing to larger fighting forces, greater financial resources, and the groups’ ability to move through wide swaths of territory.

Many are also capitalizing on the proliferation of unmanned aerial systems and artificial intelligence to enhance their deadly effectiveness.

“These new capabilities unlock new forms of operation, facilitation, and inspiration for international terrorists, requiring novel responses from states, which may also take advantage of emerging technologies,” the report said. “Given the increasing pace of technological change, the future of how terrorists and counterterrorists will act against each other is increasingly unclear.”

The report classifies Al Shabaab, a Somalia-based al-Qaida-affiliated group, as Africa’s most capable – and likely largest – terrorist organization, with the clearest demonstrated intent to attack American interests. But the authors stop short of declaring that this group represents an imminent threat to the U.S. homeland.

“Al Shabaab seems focused on its regional objectives, meaning the probability that an African terrorist group attempts a mass-casualty attack against the U.S. homeland remains low,” the authors wrote.

Meanwhile, ACLED, a nonprofit organization that collects conflict data, recorded that nearly 80% of all ISIS activity during the first 11 months of 2025 occurred in Africa, marking a 50% increase from the previous year.

At the heart of that surge is the Islamic State West Africa Province, or ISWAP, a powerful insurgent network in the Sahel that poses the most significant challenge to Al Shabaab’s dominance on the continent and increasingly serves as a hub for intelligence gathering and logistical coordination among Islamic State branches in the region.

“ISWAP has also recently benefited from external support in the form of trainers deployed by the international Islamic State organization to increase ISWAP capabilities in UAS operations, advanced explosive assembly, and military tactics,” the authors wrote.

The Trump administration has recently focused its African counterterrorism strategy on those two theaters: Somalia, where U.S. Africa Command, or AFRICOM, has ramped up air and drone strikes, and Nigeria, where Washington has launched a series of airstrikes alongside local partners and deployed a small contingent of U.S. personnel to support training efforts.

Yet these developments come as the United States has reduced its military footprint in Africa by 75%.

Gen. Dagvin Anderson, the head of AFRICOM, told lawmakers in May that the departure of American and allied forces had created “an intelligence black hole” on the continent. Anderson also emphasized that his command was operating with the “minimum necessary resources” and that its diminished force posture was compromising its ability to respond to crises.

Tanya Noury is a reporter for Military Times and Defense News, with coverage focusing on the White House and Pentagon.

战略与国际研究中心在其年度风险分析报告中警告称，从非洲之角到萨赫勒地区，圣战主义阵线正在非洲各地扩张。

《2026 年全球恐怖主义威胁评估》指出，非洲大陆的恐怖主义是“最大的不确定因素”，并援引了基地组织和伊斯兰国附属组织日益增强的能力。

作者写道：“与中东的恐怖组织不同，大多数非洲恐怖组织无疑正在崛起”，他们指出，这些组织拥有更庞大的战斗力量、更雄厚的财力，并且能够在大片领土上活动。

许多人还利用无人机系统和人工智能的普及来增强其致命效力。

报告指出：“这些新能力为国际恐怖分子提供了新的行动方式、便利手段和灵感来源，需要各国采取新的应对措施，而各国也可能利用新兴技术。鉴于技术变革的步伐日益加快，恐怖分子和反恐人员未来将如何相互对抗变得越来越不明朗。”

该报告将索马里境内与基地组织有关联的青年党列为非洲最有能力、也可能是规模最大的恐怖组织，并指出该组织有最明显的袭击美国利益的意图。但报告作者并未断言该组织对美国本土构成迫在眉睫的威胁。

“青年党似乎专注于其地区目标，这意味着非洲恐怖组织企图对美国本土发动造成大规模伤亡的袭击的可能性仍然很低，”作者写道。

与此同时，收集冲突数据的非营利组织 ACLED 记录显示，2025 年前 11 个月中，ISIS 的所有活动近 80% 发生在非洲，比上一年增加了 50%。

这一波浪潮的核心是伊斯兰国西非省（ISWAP），这是一个在萨赫勒地区拥有强大力量的叛乱网络，对青年党在非洲大陆的统治地位构成了最重大的挑战，并且日益成为伊斯兰国在该地区各分支机构进行情报收集和后勤协调的中心。

作者写道：“ISWAP 近期还受益于外部支持，即国际伊斯兰国组织部署的教官，以提高 ISWAP 在无人机系统操作、先进爆炸物组装和军事战术方面的能力。”

特朗普政府最近将非洲反恐战略的重点放在了这两个地区：索马里，美国非洲司令部（AFRICOM）加大了空袭和无人机袭击的力度；以及尼日利亚，华盛顿与当地合作伙伴一起发动了一系列空袭，并部署了一小队美国人员支持训练工作。

然而，与此同时，美国已将其在非洲的军事存在减少了 75%。

美国非洲司令部司令达格文·安德森将军5月份告诉国会议员，美国及其盟军的撤离在非洲大陆造成了“情报黑洞”。安德森还强调，他的司令部目前只能依靠“最低限度的必要资源”运作，兵力缩减严重削弱了其应对危机的能力。

Tanya Noury 是《军事时报》和《防务新闻》的记者，她的报道主要集中在白宫和五角大楼。