Libya, where US and Russia joust, could test Trump-Putin vibes

ROME — Donald Trump turned geopolitics on its head this month with his determination to do business with Vladimir Putin while pouring scorn on America’s allies.

But there is one country in the world where tense competition between the United States and Russia continues apace, keeping the Cold War vibe alive with no nod to rapprochement.

Libya has just had a training visit from a USAF B-52 bomber as U.S. generals try to tempt local leaders to eject the ever increasing number of Russian troops stationed in desert bases in the country.

The U.S. visit last month was aimed at winning over Gen. Khalifa Haftar, the military commander who runs the eastern half of the North African country and is allowing Russia to use it as a bridgehead to back regimes further south which are hostile to Washington.

The February visit came after Haftar and his sons, Saddam and Khaled, paid a call to Russia’s close ally Belarus, a sign of ever closer ties with Moscow.

Jalel Harchaoui, an analyst at the RUSI think tank in London, said U.S. attempts to win over Haftar were being led by the Pentagon.

“The Biden administration had no real policy to peel him away from the Russians, and the Trump administration has had no time for Libya, so the Pentagon is conducting its own diplomacy here,” he said.

Visitors from U.S. Africa Command who held ground targeting exercises as two B-52H Stratofortress bombers flew overhead invited military personnel from Haftar’s forces as well as from Eastern Libya, which is run by a separate government in Tripoli.

The two sides of the country split in 2014, three years after the ousting for former leader Muamar Ghadaffi.

“Haftar tells the U.S. he would work with them but says Russia gives him air defenses and military training. The U.S. tells him it would give him more if only he would distance himself from Russia,” said Harchaoui.

After the U.S. visit, Russia’s deputy defense minister, Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, was back in eastern Libya for another of his frequent visits.

“Meanwhile at Libya’s Brak al-Shati airbase, the number of Russians stationed there has risen from 300 to approximately 450 since November,” said Harchaoui.

Ben Fishman, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said he was “very skeptical” about Haftar turning away from Russia.

“Those B-52s won’t change his mind, nor will attempts by the U.S. to unite the two militaries, since Haftar’s forces are a real mechanism while in the west local militias are more influential than the army,” he said.

Mohamed Eljarh at consultancy firm Libya Outlook was more optimistic, claiming Haftar’s son Saddam – who commands eastern Libya’s land forces – is seeking ties with the United States.

“There is a belief the Russians were playing a double game in Libya with both Haftar and Ghadaffi’s son, Saif Al-Islam. Saddam is leading efforts to be closer to the U.S. and visited the U.S. last year,” he said, adding, “The Russians are understandably concerned and want him to visit Moscow but that seems off the table for now.”

If Saddam engages with the U.S., it remains to be seen whether the Trump administration will reciprocate, said Umberto Profazio, an analyst at the IISS think tank.

“There is no sign of the Trump administration yet, and given its unorthodox view of Russia and wish to disengage with overseas theaters, we may see the U.S. providing leeway for the Russian presence in Libya,” he said.

Tom Kington is the Italy correspondent for Defense News.

罗马——本月，唐纳德·特朗普决心与弗拉基米尔·普京做生意，同时对美国的盟友嗤之以鼻，从而彻底颠覆了地缘政治格局。

但世界上有一个国家，美国和俄罗斯之间的紧张竞争仍在持续，冷战氛围依然浓厚，丝毫没有缓和的迹象。

美国空军一架 B-52 轰炸机刚刚对利比亚进行了训练访问，美国将军们试图以此诱使当地领导人驱逐驻扎在该国沙漠基地的越来越多的俄罗斯军队。

美国上个月的访问旨在争取哈夫塔尔将军的支持，哈夫塔尔是控制这个北非国家东部地区的军事指挥官，他允许俄罗斯利用该国作为桥头堡，支持更南方的、对华盛顿怀有敌意的政权。

2 月份的这次访问之前，哈夫塔尔和他的儿子萨达姆和哈立德访问了俄罗斯的亲密盟友白俄罗斯，这表明俄罗斯与莫斯科的关系日益密切。

伦敦皇家联合军种研究所 (RUSI) 的分析师贾莱勒·哈尔乔伊表示，美国试图拉拢哈夫塔尔的行动是由五角大楼主导的。

他说：“拜登政府没有真正的政策来让他摆脱俄罗斯的影响，而特朗普政府又没有时间处理利比亚问题，所以五角大楼正在这里开展自己的外交活动。”

来自美国非洲司令部的访客举行了地面目标演习，两架 B-52H 同温层堡垒轰炸机从上空飞过。受邀的军事人员来自哈夫塔尔的部队以及由的黎波里另一个政府控制的利比亚东部。

该国于 2014 年分裂为南北两派，此前三年，前领导人穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲被推翻。

哈尔绍伊说：“哈夫塔尔告诉美国，他愿意与美国合作，但俄罗斯向他提供防空系统和军事训练。美国则告诉他，如果他能与俄罗斯保持距离，美国会给他更多。”

结束对美国的访问后，俄罗斯国防部副部长尤努斯-别克·叶夫库罗夫再次前往利比亚东部，进行他频繁的访问之一。

“与此同时，自去年11月以来，驻扎在利比亚布拉克沙提空军基地的俄罗斯人数量已从300人增加到约450人，”哈尔绍伊说。

华盛顿近东政策研究所高级研究员本·菲什曼表示，他对哈夫塔尔放弃俄罗斯“非常怀疑”。

他说：“那些B-52轰炸机改变不了他的想法，美国试图联合两国军队的努力也改变不了他的想法，因为哈夫塔尔的部队是一个真正的军事力量，而在西方，地方民兵比军队更有影响力。”

利比亚展望咨询公司的穆罕默德·埃尔贾尔则更为乐观，他声称哈夫塔尔的儿子萨达姆（指挥利比亚东部陆军）正在寻求与美国建立联系。

“有人认为俄罗斯在利比亚玩弄两面派，既与哈夫塔尔合作，又与卡扎菲之子赛义夫·伊斯兰合作。萨达姆正努力拉近与美国的关系，去年还访问了美国，”他说道，“俄罗斯对此感到担忧是可以理解的，他们希望萨达姆访问莫斯科，但目前看来这不太可能。”

国际战略研究所 (IISS) 分析师翁贝托·普罗法齐奥表示，如果萨达姆与美国接触，特朗普政府是否会做出回应还有待观察。

“目前还没有特朗普政府的迹象，而且鉴于其对俄罗斯的非正统看法以及希望脱离海外战区的愿望，我们可能会看到美国为俄罗斯在利比亚的存在提供回旋余地，”他说。

汤姆·金顿是《防务新闻》驻意大利记者。