Despite economic woes, UK leaders tout massive defense-spending hike

LONDON — Britain may be in economic turmoil right now but that hasn’t stopped Defense Secretary Ben Wallace emphasizing the new government’s pledge to effectively double spending on the military by 2030.

In his first interview since the Conservative government, led by new Prime Minister Liz Truss, took office earlier this month Wallace said defense spending by the end of the decade would see a massive increase, doubling annually to £100 billion ($107 billion) compared with £48 billion ($51 billion) now.

The interview has raised questions among some analysts who wonder whether the plan is affordable and are skeptical over exactly how the British are going to digest such a massive budgetary increase in such a short time.

Wallace told the Sunday Telegraph Sept. 26 that Truss had been adamant about defense being a priority, pledging to increase spending to “2.5 percent [of GDP] by 2026 and 3 percent by 2030.”

The defense secretary, one of the few senior ministers to stay in post when the Truss government was formed, declined to give any details of when, where and even how the money might be spent.

Heavy artillery, reversing planned cuts to the British Army, and increased investments in intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, and reconnaissance (ISTAR) capabilities all got a mention as potential beneficiaries, though.

“It’s highly likely we will grow the Army, but it might not be in the places the armchair generals want you to, because what we desperately need is to, for example, invest in our intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capability,” Wallace said.

Much depends on the lessons learned from the Russian invasion of the Ukraine.

During a trip to New York to attend the United Nations General Assembly last week Truss confirmed that a new look at the government’s integrated defense and security review, published in 2021, was underway as a result of the attack.

The pledge of what would be a huge rise in defense spending comes as the Ministry of Defence and the country in general brace for tough economic times. Rising inflation, a slump in the value of the Pound against the dollar and sky high fuel costs are battering defense department finances.

With the Pound approaching parity with the dollar it’s not just a problem for the government.

Industry will suffer, too, said John Louth, an independent analyst here. “A lot of companies haven’t sufficiently hedged the exchange costs in their supply chains; it is going to be an absolute nightmare,” he said.

The economic difficulties have driven some analysts here to question whether a £100 billion-a-year defense budget is affordable let alone whether the MoD could rapidly digest such huge spending increases.

Malcolm Chalmers, the deputy director general of the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London, made clear the scale of the effort required to spend such a huge budget increase.

A 3% rise would be equivalent to about £157 billion ($168 billion) in additional spending over the next eight years compared with current plans, he wrote in a paper published recently.

According to Louth, spending so much additional money sensibly would be a struggle.

“They are grappling with how do they effectively double spending in six years,” he said. “I don’t think they understand what their priorities are yet, or how they can programmatize such an effort.”

Louth added: “We are in an era of ‘Alice in Wonderland’ economics in the U.K., so answers to those kind of questions likely won’t matter anyway.”

Howard Wheelden, a consultant at Wheeldon Strategic Advisory in London reckons there is little chance the budget numbers touted by Wallace and Truss will actually be met

With little more than two years before the next general election, Wheeldon said rebuilding the economy in that time will be little short of a miracle. “Bringing voters on-side to believe that doubling spending on defense by 2030 … is hard to comprehend,” he said.

Andrew Chuter is the United Kingdom correspondent for Defense News.

伦敦——英国目前可能正处于经济动荡之中，但这并没有阻止国防大臣本·华莱士强调新政府承诺到 2030 年将军费开支有效翻一番。

在本月初由新首相利兹·特拉斯领导的保守党政府上任以来，华莱士首次接受采访时表示，到本十年末，国防开支将大幅增加，每年翻一番，达到 1000 亿英镑（1070 亿美元），而目前为 480 亿英镑（510 亿美元）。

这次采访引发了一些分析人士的质疑，他们想知道该计划是否负担得起，并且对英国人如何在如此短的时间内消化如此巨大的预算增长表示怀疑。

华莱士在 9 月 26 日告诉《星期日电讯报》，特拉斯一直坚持将国防作为优先事项，并承诺到 2026 年将国防开支增加到“GDP 的 2.5%，到 2030 年增加到 3%”。

国防大臣是特拉斯政府成立时少数几位留任的高级部长之一，他拒绝透露这笔钱何时、何地甚至如何使用的任何细节。

重炮、扭转英国陆军的裁减计划以及增加对情报、监视、目标获取和侦察 (ISTAR) 能力的投资都被提及为潜在的受益者。

“我们很可能会扩充陆军，但扩充的重点可能不会是那些纸上谈兵的将军们希望看到的，因为我们迫切需要的是，例如，投资于我们的情报、监视和侦察能力，”华莱士说。

很大程度上取决于从俄罗斯入侵乌克兰事件中吸取的教训。

上周，特拉斯在前往纽约参加联合国大会期间证实，由于此次袭击事件，政府正在对 2021 年发布的综合国防和安全评估报告进行重新审视。

英国国防部和整个国家都面临着严峻的经济形势，而与此同时，政府却承诺大幅增加国防开支。不断上涨的通货膨胀、英镑对美元汇率暴跌以及高昂的燃油成本，都给国防部的财政造成了沉重打击。

英镑兑美元汇率接近平价，这不仅仅是政府的问题。

当地独立分析师约翰·卢斯表示，工业界也将遭受重创。“很多公司没有充分对冲供应链中的汇率成本；这将是一场彻头彻尾的噩梦。”他说。

经济困难导致一些分析人士质疑，每年 1000 亿英镑的国防预算是否负担得起，更不用说国防部能否迅速消化如此巨大的支出增长。

伦敦皇家联合军种研究所副所长马尔科姆·查尔默斯明确指出，要花掉如此巨大的预算增长，需要付出多么巨大的努力。

他在最近发表的一篇论文中写道，与目前的计划相比，未来八年3%的增长相当于额外支出约1570亿英镑（1680亿美元）。

劳斯认为，要合理地花掉这么多额外的钱将是一项挑战。

他说：“他们正在努力思考如何在六年内有效地将支出翻一番。我认为他们还不清楚自己的优先事项是什么，也不知道如何才能将这项工作具体化。”

卢斯补充道：“英国正处于‘爱丽丝梦游仙境’式的经济时代，所以这类问题的答案可能根本无关紧要。”

伦敦惠尔顿战略咨询公司的顾问霍华德·惠尔顿认为，华莱士和特拉斯所宣称的预算数字几乎不可能实现。

距离下届大选仅剩两年多时间，惠尔顿表示，要在如此短的时间内重建经济几乎是奇迹。“要让选民相信到2030年将国防开支翻一番……这很难理解，”他说。

Andrew Chuter 是《防务新闻》的英国记者。