France shares intel with Ukraine as Macron floats nuclear umbrella

PARIS — France’s defense minister said the country is sharing intelligence resources with Ukraine, after President Emmanuel Macron floated the idea of expanding the French nuclear deterrent to protect European allies.

The moves here follow doubts about whether Europe can still count on the United States to help defend against Russian aggression.

The U.S. stopped sharing intel including satellite observations with Ukraine on Wednesday afternoon, which will have a major operational effect, Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu told France Inter radio on Thursday. Whether European intelligence can replace American intel “is an excellent question,” Lecornu said.

France’s intelligence assets are sovereign, “It has taken longer to build up our strength in recent years, but the advantage is that we have done so effectively with our own capabilities,” Lecornu said. “So yes, we have intelligence resources, we are letting the Ukrainians benefit from them.”

For the British, who are in a shared intelligence community with the U.S., “it’s more complicated,” the minister said.

France had 15 military satellites in space as of May 2023, compared with six for the United Kingdom and 246 for the U.S., according to the Union of Concerned Scientists. France is scheduled to launch the third of its CSO military observation satellites later today, with the first commercial flight of the Ariane 6 launcher from French Guiana.

Lecornu spoke after a televised speech by Macron on Wednesday night, in which the president said he had “decided to open the strategic debate” on protecting European allies through the country’s nuclear deterrent, in response to a call by the future German chancellor, an apparent reference to Friedrich Merz.

In any case, the nuclear deterrent would remain in French hands and would not be shared, Lecornu said. However, France’s vital interests are not necessarily limited to its borders, and there is a question of what the country can contribute to collective European security, according to the minister.

Lecornu said the French nuclear arsenal is sufficient, and France has been investing “a lot of resources” to ensure its deterrence remains credible, and is working on new warheads, missiles, aircraft and submarines for the next 10 to 20 years.

France has around 300 nuclear warheads, with a nuclear doctrine that doesn’t exclude first use, specifically mentioning the possibility of a nuclear warning shot. The country has two delivery vectors: Rafale jets that can carry nuclear-tipped missiles, and its four nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarines.

Russia has become a threat to France and Europe “for years to come,” with plans to strengthen its armed forces with 300,000 additional soldiers, 3,000 tanks and 300 fighter jets, Macron said in his speech. “Who, in this context, can believe that today’s Russia will stop at Ukraine?”

Europe must continue to help Ukraine resist Russia’s invasion so the country can negotiate a “solid peace for themselves and for us,” and peace cannot be lead to Ukraine being abandoned or equate to a Russia-imposed capitulation, Macron said. He said solid guarantees for Ukraine might include the deployment of European forces, though not in a combat role.

The change in American behavior over the past 10 days has caused “astonishment,” according to Lecornu, with Europe facing the return of the Russian threat while no longer being able to count on American reassurance.

Lecornu said all shipments of U.S. military aid for Ukraine from Poland have been suspended, and he has been asked by Macron to speed up French aid packages to compensate.

Europe must be ready in case the U.S. is no longer at its side, Macron said. The president said budgetary choices and additional investment in defense have become “indispensable.”

The French armed forces could reach a “suitable point of fitness” depending on the various missions expected for around €90 billion ($97 billion) a year, according to Lecornu. That compares to France’s 2025 defense budget of €50.5 billion and a 2030 target of €68 billion.

The French Navy has 15 frigates and “clearly” needs at least three more, and should the U.S. disengage further, France would be forced to hold seas where currently the Americans ensure freedom of navigation, Lecornu said.

The minister said the Air Force needs around 20 more Rafale jets to carry out simultaneous or lengthy operational missions, while the land forces requires deep-strike capacity as frontlines grow increasingly long. France also needs more electronic-warfare capabilities, based on the example of the war in Ukraine, Lecornu said.

The one area where Europe needs to “wake up, and this is really urgent,” is space, which is becoming increasingly militarized, according to Lecornu.

Regarding contracts to buy U.S. military equipment, some European capitals may decide they can’t trust a system that is unpredictable, including on the use of weapons, according to Lecornu. He said that “the day the White House decides that American planes will no longer take off,” the Polish and German armed forces would be deprived of their fighter planes.

Rudy Ruitenberg is a Europe correspondent for Defense News. He started his career at Bloomberg News and has experience reporting on technology, commodity markets and politics.

巴黎——法国国防部长表示，在总统马克龙提出扩大法国核威慑力量以保护欧洲盟友的想法后，法国正在与乌克兰共享情报资源。

此举源于人们对欧洲是否还能指望美国帮助抵御俄罗斯侵略的疑虑。

乌克兰武装部队部长塞巴斯蒂安·勒科尔努周四在接受法国国际广播电台采访时表示，美国于周三下午停止与乌克兰分享包括卫星观测数据在内的情报，这将对乌克兰的作战行动产生重大影响。勒科尔努说，欧洲情报机构能否取代美国情报机构“是一个非常值得探讨的问题”。

法国的情报资产是自主的。“近年来，我们增强自身实力花费的时间更长，但优势在于我们有效地利用了自身的能力，”勒科尔努说。“所以，是的，我们拥有情报资源，我们让乌克兰人从中受益。”

这位部长表示，对于与美国同属一个情报共同体的英国人来说，“情况就更复杂了”。

据忧思科学家联盟统计，截至2023年5月，法国共有15颗军用卫星在轨运行，相比之下，英国有6颗，美国则有246颗。法国计划于今日晚些时候从法属圭亚那发射其第三颗CSO军用观测卫星，这将是阿里安6号运载火箭的首次商业飞行。

勒科尔努是在马克龙周三晚间发表电视讲话后发表这番言论的。马克龙在讲话中表示，他已“决定就通过德国的核威慑力量保护欧洲盟友展开战略辩论”，以回应未来德国总理的呼吁，这显然是指弗里德里希·默茨。

勒科尔努表示，无论如何，核威慑力量仍将掌握在法国手中，不会与其他国家共享。然而，这位部长指出，法国的根本利益并非仅限于其国界之内，法国能够为欧洲集体安全做出何种贡献也是一个值得探讨的问题。

勒科尔努表示，法国的核武库已经足够，法国一直在投入“大量资源”以确保其威慑力保持可信度，并且正在为未来 10 到 20 年研发新的弹头、导弹、飞机和潜艇。

法国拥有约300枚核弹头，其核战略并未排除首先使用核武器的可能性，并明确提及了核警告的可能性。法国拥有两种运载工具：可携带核弹头导弹的“阵风”战斗机，以及其四艘核动力弹道导弹潜艇。

马克龙在讲话中表示，俄罗斯计划增兵30万，扩充军力，包括3000辆坦克和300架战斗机，这已成为法国和欧洲“未来数年”的威胁。“在这种情况下，谁还会相信今天的俄罗斯会止步于乌克兰？”

马克龙表示，欧洲必须继续帮助乌克兰抵抗俄罗斯的入侵，以便乌克兰能够就“对其自身和我们都有利的稳固和平”进行谈判。他强调，和平不能以乌克兰被抛弃或等同于俄罗斯强加的投降为代价。他还表示，对乌克兰的稳固保障可能包括部署欧洲部队，但并非以作战身份。

莱科尔努表示，过去 10 天美国行为的转变引起了“震惊”，欧洲面临着俄罗斯威胁的回归，却再也无法指望美国的保证。

勒科尔努表示，所有从波兰运往乌克兰的美国军事援助物资都已暂停，马克龙已要求他加快法国援助物资的运送，以作补偿。

马克龙表示，欧洲必须做好准备，以防美国不再站在其一边。他还说，预算选择和增加国防投资已变得“不可或缺”。

勒科尔努表示，法国武装部队每年花费约900亿欧元（970亿美元）即可达到“合适的适度水平”，具体金额取决于预计执行的各项任务。相比之下，法国2025年的国防预算为505亿欧元，2030年的目标为680亿欧元。

勒科尔努表示，法国海军拥有15艘护卫舰，但“显然”至少还需要3艘。如果美国进一步撤出，法国将被迫占领目前由美国保障航行自由的海域。

这位部长表示，空军需要大约20架“阵风”战斗机才能执行同时进行或持续时间较长的作战任务，而陆军则需要纵深打击能力，因为前线越来越长。勒科尔努还表示，鉴于乌克兰战争的经验，法国也需要增强电子战能力。

莱科尔努认为，欧洲最需要“醒悟过来，而且这件事非常紧迫”的领域是太空，太空正变得越来越军事化。

莱科尔努表示，关于购买美国军事装备的合同，一些欧洲国家首都可能会认为他们无法信任一个不可预测的体系，包括武器使用方面。他说，“一旦白宫决定美国飞机不再起飞”，波兰和德国军队将失去他们的战斗机。

鲁迪·鲁伊滕贝格是《防务新闻》的欧洲记者。他的职业生涯始于彭博新闻社，拥有报道科技、大宗商品市场和政治方面的经验。