Allies target early AUKUS milestones to keep 20-year plan on track

This is the second story of a three-part series. Click here to read the first, and click here to read the third.

Correction: A previous version of this story misidentified the origins of a propulsion system, which will include American and British technology.

WASHINGTON — It will take two decades for Australia to operate the nuclear-powered submarines designed and built under a new arrangement with the United States and the United Kingdom, unveiled six months ago.

Even so, a flurry of activity meant to get the undertaking off the ground has already begun, and experts say it’s critical to the program’s long-term timeline that the three countries meet these initial goals.

Australia, the U.K. and the U.S. — or AUKUS — have begun overhauling a submarine-industrial base in Western Australia; designing Australia’s future attack submarine SSN-AUKUS, that will incorporate American and Australian technology into a British attack sub design; and eyeing investments in all three countries’ submarine-industrial bases meant to make them more resilient and tightly interwoven.

“That’s very much the vision,” said Capt. Lincoln Reifsteck, the AUKUS integration and acquisition program manager, “that all three countries become stronger militarily, that we become stronger industrially, that all of us move forward together, and that those partnerships, those alliances, make us all better.”

The countries in March laid out a three-phase plan to achieve these goals. Australia will host American and British submarines out of a base in Western Australia in 2027, helping maintainers there learn to support nuclear-powered vessels. The U.S. will then sell Australia three to five Virginia-class attack submarines in the early 2030s, allowing Australia to start crewing and operating its own interim fleet. Finally, Australia will field a fleet of attack subs specifically under AUKUS in the early 2040s.

“These are aggressive timelines. They should be aggressive timelines; if you’re going to provide your close partners a game-changing capability, you should do this as fast as possible and work as hard as possible to do that,” Reifsteck told Defense News.

Two experts explained to Defense News these aggressive timelines are achievable, but said political pushback is likely the most significant potential obstacle.

Here’s a look at the status of each phase, as well as how Congress is backing the trilateral effort.

Australia is renovating facilities at its HMAS Stirling submarine base to ensure it’s ready to host foreign subs by 2027.

As many as four American Virginia-class subs and one British Astute-class sub will form Submarine Rotational Force-West. They will operate out of Stirling for several years at a time, and their crews will include Australian sailors.

Reifsteck said U.S. Indo-Pacific Command previously committed to sending American attack submarines to port visits in Australia once a year. With AUKUS in place, that will increase to two or more port calls to Stirling each year.

The Royal Australian Navy frigate HMAS Warramunga is berthed at HMAS Stirling on Aug. 11, 2021, in Garden Island, Australia. (CPOIS Damian Pawlenko/Australian Defence Force via Getty Images)

As Australian maintainers become qualified in U.S. Navy standards and procedures, they’ll increasingly use the port visits to participate in small pierside maintenance activities, Reifsteck said.

And as new facilities go up at Stirling to support the nuclear-powered Virginia-class and future AUKUS-class submarines, the port visits will allow for beta tests of the new facilities.

Reifsteck said the port visits can include drills for fires, hazardous material leaks and natural disasters.

As the piers, maintenance facilities and training facilities get built, the workforce at Pearl Harbor Naval Shipyard in Hawaii will begin training their counterparts at Stirling on American procedures for maintenance and test events.

Bryan Clark, director of the Center for Defense Concepts and Technology at Hudson Institute think tank, said training Australia’s workforce on U.S. nuclear and submarine safety standards by 2027 would be a challenge, but noted there are ways to mitigate this to stay on schedule.

If needed, Australian workers could start with repair tasks unrelated to the nuclear propulsion plant or so-called SUBSAFE components. These more sensitive repairs could be done by American workers in Australia, at repair facilities in Guam or Pearl Harbor, or using a submarine tender sent to Australia until the workforce at Stirling is fully trained.

The U.S. Navy will sell three to five Virginia-class submarines to Australia to give the ally an interim capability while the SSN-AUKUS undergoes construction.

But the state of America’s submarine-industrial base has left some lawmakers uneasy about this piece of AUKUS. The U.S. Navy already has a shortfall of attack submarines, with 49 in the fleet instead of the 66 to 72 required by a 2021 force structure assessment. Those attack subs are also less prepared than the Navy wants, with 33% of the fleet undergoing or awaiting maintenance instead of the 20% the service expects.

A rendering of the SSN-AUKUS. (Business Wire)

The submarine-industrial base plays a role in both problems. Suppliers are struggling to deliver parts on time, and delayed parts can throw off delicate production line schedules as well as delay maintenance for the in-service fleet.

The U.S. government has invested $2.3 billion to strengthen the submarine-industrial base and has committed to spending $1.6 billion more — in addition to a $2.4 billion pledge specifically to bolster submarine sustainment. These combined efforts are flooding suppliers with money and workload, allowing them to invest in the people, facilities and processes to more efficiently produce more parts.

Rep. Joe Courtney, a Democrat whose Connecticut district includes the General Dynamics Electric Boat shipyard, wrote a July 27 memo to convince his colleagues that previous investments are making a difference and that continued spending will ensure the submarine sale to Australia won’t hurt the American fleet.

Still, Clark said, this phase is the most at risk of being skipped over.

“It is an open question whether Australia will still want to spend [$3 billion or more] per submarine on SSNs in that time frame, and the U.S. Congress may resist selling ships out of a small inventory of ready boats,” he noted, saying it’s possible the allies may ultimately bypass this interim fleet and wait for the arrival of SSN-AUKUS if both governments cannot overcome the political hurdles.

The U.S. Navy acknowledges AUKUS will put additional strain on the industrial base. Still, it estimates the vendor base will be back on track building American submarines by 2028 and will have additional capacity in the 2030s when it sells submarines to Australia.

Reifsteck said Australia has very sophisticated manufacturing capabilities for certain kinds of parts and could take on work for the collective AUKUS nuclear sub supply system. The three navies are in talks with their sectors to match interests and needs as well as identify the best opportunities for Australian involvement in the collective supply base.

“We’ve started working with the Australians on how we certify our vendors, how we do our quality control, how we certify that a part can go onto our submarine, so that we can quickly identify where the best pilot activities are going to be,” he said, with a goal to “get those parts into Virginia [submarines] immediately and have that industrial base revved up” to support Australia’s Virginia-class and SSN-AUKUS subs.

By the end of this decade, he added, Australian workers at HMAS Stirling could perform maintenance on American submarines and install Australian-made repair parts, as the two countries merge their supply systems.

Though the first SSN-AUKUS boats won’t hit the water for another 15 years, the design must be done by next year.

A U.K. team is designing SSN-AUKUS. Boats built in the U.K. by BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce will replace the Royal Navy’s Astute-class submarines. Boats built in Australia, with some manufacturing assistance from companies in the U.K., will form the next-generation undersea fleet for the Royal Australian Navy.

The nuclear propulsion system will leverage both British and American technology.

And the combat system and weapons systems will feature much American technology. In some cases, such as the MK 48 heavyweight torpedo, the Australian naval force already uses the American weapon and is familiar with its fire control system, making it an easy decision to include these in the SSN-AUKUS design.

Reifsteck said the British designers are still weighing a few major decisions about which technology to use from which country, seeking to pick the “best of breed” from across their inventories.

Then the U.K. will begin building its first boat later this decade. Australia will follow “very shortly thereafter,” he added.

The U.K. production line will stay a bit ahead of its Australian counterpart, allowing the more experienced workforce to learn lessons about building this new class and share those with the Australian production line. The first U.K. boat should deliver in the late 2030s, and the first Australian boat in the early 2040s.

Near-term challenges

Despite the early activity, roadblocks remain, particularly for lawmakers to address.

Courtney told Defense News a package of legislative proposals from the Defense and State departments have “really given Congress a to-do list in terms of making AUKUS work.”

The House Foreign Affairs Committee voted 48-0 in late July to support the sale of Virginia-class submarines to Australia. Despite the unanimous vote, there are lingering concerns about further shrinking the size of the American fleet due to this sale — though Courtney said he’s optimistic the measure will be passed into law this year.

There’s also a change to the Defense Production Act that would allow suppliers in the U.K. and Australia to be considered “domestic sources” of materials in the U.S. — a designation from which Canada benefits.

And then there’s the U.S. export control policy , International Traffic in Arms Regulations, or ITAR.

From left, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, U.S. President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak arrive for a news conference after a trilateral meeting during the AUKUS summit on March 13, 2023, in San Diego, Calif. (Leon Neal/Getty Images)

“The good news is that the State Department actually did come forward with an ITAR reform plan,” Courtney said, though the House Foreign Affairs Committee narrowly passed a version of this reform along party lines. Courtney called on lawmakers and the State Department to remain engaged and get the reforms passed this year.

Reifsteck said the ITAR reform is primarily important for AUKUS’ second pillar — an agreement for the three countries to share high-end technologies like quantum computing, artificial intelligence, hypersonics, unmanned systems and more — but also has some implications for the submarine collaboration in the first pillar.

Between 1,000 and 2,500 Australian ship maintenance workers will need to come to the U.S. and learn to work on nuclear-powered boats. Several of the legislative proposals, including the ITAR reform and the submarine sale authority , must pass so Australian nationals can train in the U.S. and repair Virginia-class submarines here and in Australia.

Lauren Kahn, a senior research analyst with the Center for Security and Emerging Technology at Georgetown University, praised the AUKUS plan’s consideration of how to “speed up a partner’s preparedness to deal with these capabilities” by focusing on “all the things they can do in the meantime before they have the physical capabilities,” such as building up the workforce, the infrastructure and a cadre of nuclear-trained sailors.

But she also noted the challenge of bureaucracy. Beyond passing ITAR and Defense Production Act reforms, she said there are several ways Congress and the Defense Department need to open up the flow of information and the sharing of technology so the allied navies can seamlessly operate together at sea once the hardware arrives.

Courtney said Congress, even as the AUKUS details were being finalized, passed a measure last year allowing Australian sailors to attend the U.S. Navy’s Nuclear Power School in South Carolina, setting a precedent of Congress allowing Australia access to closely held nuclear propulsion technology. The first three Australian naval officers graduated from the program in July; six more are enrolled, and more were selected to attend the school soon.

Kevin Rudd, the Australian ambassador to the U.S., said during a recent visit to HII’s Newport News Shipbuilding submarine construction yard that AUKUS would be a “very large transformation” with equally large challenges.

Rudd noted the three governments are working “to turn the vision into reality. And that reality requires legislation through the Congress; it also requires active collaboration with the United States submarine-industrial base. ”

“These are large undertakings, but our cause is large as well: to sustain the peace and stability of our wider region” in the Pacific, he added.

Megan Eckstein is the naval warfare reporter at Defense News. She has covered military news since 2009, with a focus on U.S. Navy and Marine Corps operations, acquisition programs and budgets. She has reported from four geographic fleets and is happiest when she’s filing stories from a ship. Megan is a University of Maryland alumna.

这是三篇系列故事的第二篇。点击此处阅读第一篇，点击此处阅读第三篇。

更正：此前版本错误地指出了推进系统的来源，该系统将融合美国和英国的技术。

华盛顿——根据六个月前公布的与美国和英国达成的新协议，澳大利亚需要二十年时间才能运营这些核动力潜艇。

即便如此，旨在启动这项事业的一系列活动已经开始，专家表示，这三个国家实现这些初步目标对于该计划的长期时间表至关重要。

澳大利亚、英国和美国（或称 AUKUS）已开始对西澳大利亚的潜艇工业基地进行全面改造；设计澳大利亚未来的攻击型潜艇 SSN-AUKUS，该潜艇将融合美国和澳大利亚的技术，并采用英国的攻击型潜艇设计；同时，他们还计划投资于这三个国家的潜艇工业基地，以使它们更具韧性，并更加紧密地联系在一起。

“这正是我们的愿景，”AUKUS 整合与采购项目经理林肯·雷夫斯泰克上尉说，“那就是让这三个国家在军事上变得更强大，让我们在工业上变得更强大，让我们所有人一起前进，让这些伙伴关系和联盟使我们所有人变得更好。”

今年3月，这些国家制定了一项分三阶段实现这些目标的计划。澳大利亚将于2027年在西澳大利亚设立基地，接待美国和英国的潜艇，帮助当地维护人员学习如何维护核动力潜艇。随后，美国将在2030年代初向澳大利亚出售三到五艘弗吉尼亚级攻击型潜艇，使澳大利亚能够开始组建和运营自己的过渡舰队。最终，澳大利亚将在2040年代初组建一支专门隶属于“阿库斯”（AUKUS）项目的攻击型潜艇舰队。

“这些时间表非常紧迫。时间表就应该非常紧迫；如果你要为你的亲密合作伙伴提供改变游戏规则的能力，你就应该尽快完成，并为此付出最大的努力，”雷夫斯泰克告诉《防务新闻》。

两位专家向《防务新闻》解释说，这些激进的时间表是可以实现的，但表示政治阻力可能是最大的潜在障碍。

以下是各阶段的进展情况，以及国会如何支持三方合作。

澳大利亚正在对其斯特林号潜艇基地进行设施改造，以确保该基地在 2027 年前能够接待外国潜艇。

多达四艘美国弗吉尼亚级潜艇和一艘英国机敏级潜艇将组成西部潜艇轮换部队。它们将以斯特灵为基地，每次驻防数年，艇员中将包括澳大利亚水兵。

赖夫斯泰克表示，美国印太司令部此前承诺每年派遣美国攻击型潜艇访问澳大利亚港口一次。随着AUKUS项目的实施，每年访问斯特灵港的次数将增加到两次或更多次。

2021 年 8 月 11 日，澳大利亚皇家海军护卫舰 HMAS Warramunga 停泊在澳大利亚花园岛的 HMAS Stirling。 （CPOIS Damian Pawlenko/澳大利亚国防军来自 Getty Images）

雷夫斯泰克表示，随着澳大利亚维修人员逐渐熟悉美国海军的标准和程序，他们将越来越多地利用港口访问的机会参与小型码头维修活动。

随着斯特灵港新建设施以支持核动力弗吉尼亚级和未来的海鸥级潜艇，港口访问将允许对新设施进行测试。

雷夫斯泰克表示，港口访问可能包括火灾、危险物质泄漏和自然灾害演习。

随着码头、维护设施和训练设施的建设，夏威夷珍珠港海军造船厂的员工将开始培训斯特林海军造船厂的同行，使其掌握美国的维护和测试程序。

哈德逊研究所智库国防概念与技术中心主任布莱恩·克拉克表示，到 2027 年对澳大利亚劳动力进行美国核能和潜艇安全标准方面的培训将是一个挑战，但他指出，有一些方法可以减轻这一挑战，从而按计划完成。

如有需要，澳大利亚工人可以先从与核动力装置或所谓的SUBSAFE组件无关的维修工作入手。这些更为复杂的维修工作可以由美国工人在澳大利亚、关岛或珍珠港的维修设施内完成，或者由派往澳大利亚的潜艇维修船进行，直到斯特林基地的工人接受全面培训为止。

美国海军将向澳大利亚出售三到五艘弗吉尼亚级潜艇，以便在 SSN-AUKUS 建造期间为该盟友提供过渡能力。

但美国潜艇工业基础的现状令一些议员对这份《奥克斯》文件感到不安。美国海军目前攻击型潜艇数量已经短缺，舰队中仅有49艘，而2021年的兵力结构评估建议配备66至72艘。此外，这些攻击型潜艇的准备情况也低于海军的预期，舰队中有33%的潜艇正在接受或等待维修，而海军的预期比例为20%。

SSN-AUKUS的效果图。（商业资讯）

潜艇工业基地在这两个问题中都扮演着重要角色。供应商难以按时交付零部件，而零部件的延误不仅会打乱精细的生产线计划，还会延误在役潜艇的维护保养。

美国政府已投资23亿美元加强潜艇工业基础，并承诺追加16亿美元投入——此外，政府还专门承诺拨款24亿美元用于加强潜艇后勤保障。这些举措为供应商带来了充足的资金和工作量，使他们能够投资于人员、设施和流程，从而更高效地生产更多零部件。

康涅狄格州民主党众议员乔·考特尼的选区包括通用动力电船造船厂，他在 7 月 27 日写了一份备忘录，试图说服他的同事们，之前的投资正在发挥作用，持续的支出将确保向澳大利亚出售潜艇不会损害美国舰队。

不过，克拉克表示，这一阶段最有可能被跳过。

“澳大利亚是否还愿意在那个时间段内为每艘核潜艇花费[30亿美元或更多]，这还是个未知数，而且美国国会可能会抵制出售库存有限的现成潜艇，”他指出，并表示如果两国政府无法克服政治障碍，盟国最终可能会绕过这支过渡舰队，等待SSN-AUKUS的到来。

美国海军承认，AUKUS项目将给工业基础带来额外压力。不过，美国海军预计，到2028年，供应商将恢复正常生产美国潜艇的能力，并在2030年代向澳大利亚出售潜艇时拥有额外的产能。

雷夫斯泰克表示，澳大利亚在某些零部件方面拥有非常先进的制造能力，可以承担AUKUS核潜艇联合供应系统的部分工作。三国海军正在与各自相关部门进行磋商，以协调各方利益和需求，并确定澳大利亚参与该联合供应体系的最佳机会。

他说：“我们已经开始与澳大利亚人合作，研究如何认证我们的供应商，如何进行质量控制，如何认证某个部件可以安装到我们的潜艇上，以便我们能够迅速确定最佳的试点活动地点。”他的目标是“立即将这些部件安装到弗吉尼亚级潜艇上，并加快工业基础建设”，以支持澳大利亚的弗吉尼亚级和SSN-AUKUS级潜艇。

他补充说，到本十年末，随着两国供应链的融合，澳大利亚在斯特林海军基地工作的工人将能够对美国潜艇进行维护，并安装澳大利亚制造的维修零件。

虽然第一艘 SSN-AUKUS 潜艇还要 15 年才能下水，但设计工作必须在明年完成。

英国团队正在设计SSN-AUKUS核潜艇。由英国BAE系统公司和罗尔斯·罗伊斯公司在英国建造的潜艇将取代英国皇家海军的机敏级潜艇。在澳大利亚建造，并得到英国公司部分制造协助的潜艇，将构成澳大利亚皇家海军的下一代水下舰队。

核动力推进系统将结合英国和美国的技术。

作战系统和武器系统将大量采用美国技术。例如，澳大利亚海军已经在使用MK 48重型鱼雷，并且熟悉其火控系统，因此将其纳入SSN-AUKUS的设计中是顺理成章的选择。

赖夫斯泰克表示，英国设计师们仍在权衡一些重大决定，例如从哪个国家使用哪种技术，力求从他们的所有技术库中挑选出“最好的”。

他补充说，英国将于本十年末开始建造其第一艘船，澳大利亚“很快”也将跟进。

英国的生产线将略微领先于澳大利亚的生产线，以便让经验丰富的工人能够积累建造这种新型游艇的经验，并与澳大利亚的生产线分享。英国的首艘游艇预计将于2030年代末交付，澳大利亚的首艘游艇预计将于2040年代初交付。

近期挑战

尽管早期已开展了一些活动，但仍存在一些障碍，特别是立法者需要解决的问题。

Courtney 告诉《防务新闻》，国防部和国务院提出的一系列立法提案“确实为国会提供了一份待办事项清单，以便使 AUKUS 计划得以实施”。

7月下旬，众议院外交事务委员会以48票赞成、0票反对的表决结果，支持向澳大利亚出售弗吉尼亚级潜艇。尽管投票结果一致通过，但人们仍然担心此次军售会进一步缩减美国潜艇舰队的规模——不过，科特尼表示，他乐观地认为这项法案今年就能获得通过。

《国防生产法》也进行了修改，允许英国和澳大利亚的供应商被视为美国的“国内材料来源”——加拿大将从中受益。

此外，还有美国的出口管制政策，即《国际武器贸易条例》（ITAR）。

2023年3月13日，在加利福尼亚州圣地亚哥举行的AUKUS峰会期间，澳大利亚总理安东尼·阿尔巴尼斯、美国总统乔·拜登和英国首相里希·苏纳克在三方会晤后出席新闻发布会。（Leon Neal/Getty Images）

“好消息是，国务院确实提出了ITAR改革方案，”考特尼说，尽管众议院外交事务委员会仅以微弱优势通过了该改革方案，且投票结果与党派立场相悖。考特尼呼吁议员和国务院继续保持沟通，争取在今年通过这些改革。

赖夫斯泰克表示，ITAR改革对AUKUS的第二支柱（三国共享量子计算、人工智能、高超音速、无人系统等高端技术的协议）至关重要，但对第一支柱中的潜艇合作也有一些影响。

大约1000至2500名澳大利亚船舶维修工人需要前往美国学习核动力潜艇的维修工作。包括《国际武器贸易条例》（ITAR）改革和潜艇销售授权在内的几项立法提案必须获得通过，澳大利亚公民才能赴美接受培训，并在澳大利亚和澳大利亚境内维修弗吉尼亚级潜艇。

乔治城大学安全与新兴技术中心的高级研究分析师劳伦·卡恩赞扬了 AUKUS 计划，该计划考虑了如何“加快合作伙伴应对这些能力的准备”，重点关注“在他们拥有实际能力之前，他们可以做的所有事情”，例如建立劳动力、基础设施和一支受过核训练的水兵队伍。

但她也指出官僚主义带来的挑战。除了通过《国际武器贸易条例》和《国防生产法》改革之外，她表示，国会和国防部还需要通过多种方式来促进信息流通和技术共享，以便盟军海军在装备到位后能够无缝地协同作战。

考特尼表示，就在AUKUS项目细节敲定之际，国会去年通过了一项法案，允许澳大利亚水兵前往位于南卡罗来纳州的美国海军核动力学校学习，这开创了国会允许澳大利亚获取美国海军高度重视的核动力推进技术的先例。首批三名澳大利亚海军军官已于7月从该项目毕业；另有六名军官正在就读，还有更多军官即将入选该校。

澳大利亚驻美国大使陆克文最近访问了HII位于纽波特纽斯的造船厂潜艇建造厂，他表示，AUKUS项目将是一次“非常大的变革”，同时也面临着同样巨大的挑战。

鲁德指出，三国政府正在努力“将愿景变为现实。而实现这一愿景需要国会立法；也需要与美国潜艇工业基地积极合作。”

他补充说：“这些都是规模庞大的工程，但我们的事业也很伟大：维护我们更广阔的太平洋地区的和平与稳定。”

梅根·埃克斯坦是《防务新闻》的海军作战记者。自2009年以来，她一直从事军事新闻报道，主要关注美国海军和海军陆战队的行动、采购项目和预算。她曾报道过四个不同地理区域的舰队，最喜欢在舰艇上进行新闻报道。梅根毕业于马里兰大学。