German industry lead prepares for possible collapse of TLVS anti-missile program

COLOGNE, Germany — The German arm of MBDA said it will “restructure” its operations following signals from Berlin that the government is having second thoughts about the company’s pet project, the TLVS air defense system.

The move comes after European consortium MBDA and its American partner Lockheed Martin held out hope for years that their follow-on work on the former Medium Extended Air Defense System — which included the United States, Germany and Italy — would eventually yield a contract with the German military, or Bundeswehr.

Up to now, the vendors invested some money of their own in the effort, believing the system’s features would revolutionize a global air defense market dominated by the Patriot system.

But MBDA now thinks a contract still won’t materialize next year, the company said in a statement. In addition, the statement noted that Defence Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer announced a reevaluation of the Bundeswehr’s entire air defense portfolio.

Such reviews typically are telling indicators that governments want fresh thinking on a given subject and are willing to scrap long-standing plans. In the case of TLVS, Kramp-Karrenbauer’s recent emphasis on “layers” in missile defense, a common way to conceptualize the technology, could mean the system is no longer thought to serve the sweet spot in intercepting aircraft, missiles or drones at various heights and distances.

Late last month, lawmakers only included a token sum of €2 million (U.S. $2.4 million) for TLVS in the defense budget for next year. While there is an opportunity to add funds midyear, including some kind of bridge funding until the Defence Ministry’s goals are more clear, the companies are seeing their prospects diminish.

It remains to be seen how the ministry would shape the narrative about canceling a program once held up as a poster child of German defense procurement reform. Officials set the program up with the idea of delegating as much development risk to the contractors as possible, at a fixed price. Combined with the gradual addition of new feature requests, like hypersonic intercept and lasers, that approach began to look untenable for both sides over the summer.

Sebastian Sprenger is associate editor for Europe at Defense News, reporting on the state of the defense market in the region, and on U.S.-Europe cooperation and multi-national investments in defense and global security. Previously he served as managing editor for Defense News. He is based in Cologne, Germany.

德国科隆——MBDA德国分公司表示，在柏林方面释放出政府对该公司重点项目TLVS防空系统重新考虑的信号后，该公司将“重组”其业务。

此前，欧洲财团 MBDA 及其美国合作伙伴洛克希德·马丁多年来一直希望，他们此前在中型远程防空系统（包括美国、德国和意大利）上的后续工作最终能够与德国军方（即联邦国防军）签订合同。

到目前为止，供应商们已经投入了一些自有资金，他们相信该系统的功能将彻底改变由“爱国者”系统主导的全球防空市场。

但MBDA在一份声明中表示，该公司目前认为明年仍无法达成合同。此外，声明还指出，德国国防部长安妮格雷特·克兰普-卡伦鲍尔宣布将对德国联邦国防军的整个防空体系进行重新评估。

此类评估通常表明政府希望在特定议题上寻求新的思路，并愿意放弃长期沿用的计划。以TLVS为例，克兰普-卡伦鲍尔近期强调导弹防御中的“层级”概念（这是该技术常用的概念化方式），这可能意味着该系统不再被认为能够有效地拦截不同高度和距离的飞机、导弹或无人机。

上月底，议员们在明年的国防预算中仅象征性地拨出200万欧元（约合240万美元）用于战术车辆（TLVS）。虽然年中有机会追加拨款，包括在国防部目标更加明确之前提供某种过渡性资金，但这些公司的前景正变得越来越渺茫。

德国国防部将如何解释取消这项曾被誉为德国国防采购改革典范的项目，目前尚不得而知。官员们当初设立该项目的初衷是尽可能将研发风险转移给承包商，并设定固定价格。然而，随着高超音速拦截和激光武器等新功能需求的逐步增加，这种模式在夏季期间对双方而言都开始显得难以维系。

塞巴斯蒂安·斯普伦格是《防务新闻》欧洲版副主编，负责报道该地区的防务市场状况，以及美欧在防务和全球安全领域的合作和多国投资。此前，他曾担任《防务新闻》执行主编。他现居德国科隆。