Belgium agrees to send F-16s to Ukraine, but not before 2025

MILAN – The Belgian government said it will provide an undisclosed number of F-16 fighters to Ukraine from 2025, a decision some are calling a compromise between the political factions that make up the country’s ruling coalition.

On Oct. 11, Belgium put an end to the wavering stance it had adopted in recent months on the issue of sending F-16s to Ukraine.

“Belgium from 2025 will be in a position to supply F-16s to Ukraine,” Prime Minister Alexander De Croo told reporters following his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Brussels.

The official added, however, that such a decision needs to be confirmed by the country’s next government following elections next May.

The announcement originally was made by Defense Minister Ludivine Dedonder on Wednesday in an interview with local broadcaster Bel RTL, during which she explained that the specifics of the agreement will “depend on the build-up of Belgium’s new F-35 capabilities.”

The deal will further entail the training of Ukrainian pilots and mission planners, which will begin in 2024, and two Belgian companies, Sabena Engineering and Patria Bec, will provide essential technical support for the F-16 fleet, according to a Belgian MoD press release. In September, Belgium joined the coalition of a dozen other countries providing F-16 courses.

Rodolphe Polis, press officer at the Belgian MoD, told Defense News that the country currently has 53 F-16s in its inventories.

In 2018, Brussels signed a multi-billion dollar contract with Lockheed Martin for the supply of 34 F-35 fighter jets that are set to replace the aging F-16s it possesses. However, the timeline for these deliveries has already been delayed.

“In April 2023, Minister Dedonder confirmed that only two F-35s out of the initial four would be delivered during the first quarter of 2024,” Alain De Neve, researcher at the Belgium-based Royal Higher Institute for Defense think tank told Defense News. “This means that the F-16 to F-35 transition could face hiccups, meanwhile Belgium is obliged to maintain an operational fleet of aircraft, particularly for its joint missions in the Baltics.”

Belgium contributes to the surveillance of this airspace as part of NATO’s enhanced vigilance activities and Baltic Air Policing. It was also one of the first international customers of the F-16, receiving its first deliveries over 40 years ago.

The news that the jets will not reach Ukraine before two more years have deceived some observers, as Ukrainian officials have been heavily lobbying for these weapons to reach the war-torn country as soon as possible.

For De Neve, it is somewhat surprising that Belgium would be singled out on this issue.

“The decision to send F-16s to Ukraine represents, as is often the case in Belgium, one based on a compromise between the various political sensitivities that compose the ruling coalition government… This can be a complex process and it is true, out of sync with events,” he said.

However, he argues that the deadline needs to be placed in the broader context of other pledges made by F-16 donating countries.

“As early as January 2023, the Netherlands indicated that they were willing to deliver F-16s to Ukraine, but US approval was crucial, which came in the spring. This means it has been ten months since the first delivery promises were made, and no aircraft has yet been transferred to Ukrainian forces,” De Neve stated.

Government officials have in recent months voiced the growing possibility that the Russia-Ukraine war could turn into a frozen conflict, that may last anywhere between several years to a decade.

Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo was a Europe correspondent for Defense News. She covers a wide range of topics related to military procurement and international security, and specializes in reporting on the aviation sector. She is based in Milan, Italy.

米兰——比利时政府表示，将从 2025 年起向乌克兰提供数量不详的 F-16 战斗机，一些人称这一决定是该国执政联盟各政治派别之间达成的妥协。

10 月 11 日，比利时结束了近几个月来在向乌克兰派遣 F-16 战斗机问题上摇摆不定的立场。

“比利时从 2025 年起将有能力向乌克兰提供 F-16 战斗机，”比利时首相亚历山大·德克罗在布鲁塞尔与乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基会晤后告诉记者。

这位官员补充说，这样的决定需要明年五月大选后由该国下一届政府确认。

该消息最初由国防部长卢迪维娜·德东德 (Ludivine Dedonder) 于周三在接受当地广播公司 Bel RTL 采访时宣布，她在采访中解释说，该协议的具体细节将“取决于比利时新型 F-35 战机的建设情况”。

根据比利时国防部发布的新闻稿，该协议还将包括对乌克兰飞行员和任务规划人员的培训，培训将于2024年开始。此外，两家比利时公司——萨贝纳工程公司（Sabena Engineering）和帕特里亚·贝克公司（Patria Bec）——将为F-16机队提供必要的技术支持。今年9月，比利时加入了由十几个国家组成的联盟，共同提供F-16培训课程。

比利时国防部新闻官鲁道夫·波利斯告诉《防务新闻》，该国目前库存有 53 架 F-16 战斗机。

2018年，布鲁塞尔与洛克希德·马丁公司签署了一份价值数十亿美元的合同，采购34架F-35战斗机，用于替换其现役的老旧F-16战斗机。然而，这些战机的交付时间表已被推迟。

“2023年4月，德东德部长确认，最初订购的四架F-35战机中，只有两架会在2024年第一季度交付，”比利时皇家高等国防研究院的研究员阿兰·德内夫告诉《防务新闻》。“这意味着F-16向F-35的过渡可能会遇到一些波折，与此同时，比利时有义务维持一支可作战的机队，尤其是在波罗的海地区的联合任务中。”

比利时参与北约加强警戒行动和波罗的海空中警戒行动，为该空域的监视做出贡献。比利时也是F-16战斗机的首批国际客户之一，早在40多年前就接收了首批交付的战机。

战机还要两年才能抵达乌克兰的消息误导了一些观察人士，因为乌克兰官员一直在大力游说，希望这些武器能尽快运抵这个饱受战争蹂躏的国家。

德内夫认为，比利时在这个问题上被单独挑出来，这多少有些出乎意料。

“向乌克兰派遣F-16战机的决定，就像比利时经常发生的那样，是基于执政联盟政府中各种政治敏感因素之间的妥协……这可能是一个复杂的过程，而且确实与实际情况脱节，”他说。

但他认为，需要将最后期限放在F-16捐赠国所作其他承诺的更广泛背景下看待。

德内夫表示：“早在2023年1月，荷兰就表示愿意向乌克兰交付F-16战机，但美国的批准至关重要，而美国直到春季才批准。这意味着，从最初做出交付承诺到现在已经过去了十个月，但乌克兰军队仍未收到任何战机。”

近几个月来，政府官员多次表示，俄乌战争有可能演变成一场“冻结冲突”，这场冲突可能会持续数年到十年之久。

伊丽莎白·戈斯林-马洛曾任《防务新闻》欧洲通讯员。她的报道涵盖军事采购和国际安全等广泛领域，尤其擅长航空领域的报道。她常驻意大利米兰。