Lawmakers mull Ukraine plans amid uncertainty after McCarthy ouster

WASHINGTON ― Pro-Ukraine lawmakers are strategizing on how to pass another Ukraine aid package through Congress despite an increasingly unfriendly Republican caucus that has plunged into chaos following the ouster of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

Numerous House Republicans are floating the idea of tying Ukraine aid to more border security funding, if they’re open to the idea at all. Meanwhile, the Senate is leaning toward passing a full-year package for Kyiv, a strategy that would insulate Ukraine from next year’s U.S. elections but come with a huge up-front price tag.

It’s also unclear when the House will resume conducting any business, Ukraine-related or otherwise, as the race to replace McCarthy as speaker begins in earnest. And at least two would-be speakers have a staunch record of opposing Ukraine aid.

“We need to do it quickly,” Sen. Roger Wicker of Mississippi, the top Republican on the Armed Services Committee, told Defense News shortly after McCarthy’s ouster on Tuesday. “And instead we’re focusing on internecine fights that don’t help the Republicans.”

Wicker noted that the main challenge would be getting a supplemental assistance package for Ukraine on the House floor, at which point he expects it would pass with two-thirds support in both chambers.

“There’s always been a tendency for isolationism,” said Wicker. “Within the House Republicans and Senate Republicans there is still majority support for fulfilling our obligation and helping Ukraine diminish the Russian military. There’s still strong support.”

In one of McCarthy’s last acts as speaker, he dropped $6 billion of Ukraine aid from the Senate’s stopgap funding bill needed to avoid a government shutdown. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appealed to McCarthy for additional aid when he last visited Capitol Hill in September, warning lawmakers that Ukraine would lose the war without the assistance.

McCarthy has previously voted for Ukraine aid and reiterated his condemnation of Russia’s invasion in a press conference on Tuesday following his ouster. But roughly half the House Republican caucus now opposes a fifth Ukraine aid package. This makes it politically perilous for any GOP leader to put Ukraine aid on the floor, even if a super-majority of Congress still supports it.

Rep. Steve Womack of Arkansas, a Republican defense appropriator who supports Ukraine aid, told Defense News shortly after McCarthy’s ouster that he expects Ukraine aid to factor into the speakership race.

“All attention right now is on us,” said Womack. “We’ve got to go figure it out. We’ve got to find a leader.”

US Representative Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) speaks to US Representative Matt Gaetz (R-FL) in the House Chamber at the US Capitol in Washington, DC, on January 6, 2023. Gaetz forced the vote that ousted McCarthy earlier this week. (Photo by OLIVIER DOULIERY / AFP) (Photo by OLIVIER DOULIERY/AFP via Getty Images)

Three conservatives have already expressed interest in becoming speaker: Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, and Rep. Kevin Hern, R-Okla., chairman of the Republican Study Committee. Other candidates could jump in during the days ahead as well, consuming the House in a prolonged speakership battle.

Scalise voted in favor of $300 million in Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative funding last week when the House passed it 311-117 after McCarthy stripped it from the defense spending bill in order to win support from the right-wing Freedom Caucus. Jordan, a founding member of the Freedom Caucus, voted against the funding, as did Hern.

Some House Republicans have floated additional funding for security on the U.S. southern border in exchange for passing a fifth Ukraine aid package, an idea met with skepticism from Democrats.

“We’ve been trying to do some sort of immigration reform for 25 years, unsuccessfully,” Rep. Adam Smith of Washington, the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, told Defense News. “If you support Ukraine, get us a straight up-or-down vote on something to support them is what we’re pushing.”

Smith said he’s working with House Intelligence Chairman Mike Turner, R-Ohio, who’s trying to rally Republicans for an up-or-down Ukraine vote on the floor.

“If we can’t do that, I think we’ve got to think about a discharge petition,” said Smith.

The House rules package McCarthy agreed to in January to secure his short-lived speakership includes a provision that lets 218 members force a floor vote on legislation, potentially allowing Democrats to force an up-or-down vote on Ukraine aid with just a handful of supportive Republicans. But it’s unclear what sort of rules changes Republicans may seek to enact after they select a new speaker.

There’s no telling how long it may take for the House to get its affairs in order, and the Pentagon will soon run out of the funding and authorities it needs to aid Ukraine.

A one-year Ukraine package?

The Pentagon says it can still use $5.5 billion from prior fiscal years to continue transferring weapons to Ukraine from U.S. stockpiles and another $1.6 billion to replenish weapons Washington has already sent Kyiv. The Biden administration announced Wednesday that it would send Ukraine more than one million rounds of ammunition seized from Iran .

“What I’m hearing is they basically have enough money to continue providing weapons and the like for about the next 45 days, but after that the well runs dry,” Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, told Defense News.

Senators are eying a full-year package intended to carry Ukraine through the U.S. election next year and taking it off the House’s plate in 2024. Several Republican presidential candidates, including the frontrunner former President Donald Trump, also oppose Ukraine aid .

Senate Defense Appropriations Chairman Jon Tester, D-Mont., told Defense News that the Ukraine supplemental the upper chamber intends to pass could have enough funds to last as long as 15 months.

“I don’t think it’s been decided yet,” said Tester. “But if its, it would be best if we did something that went to the end of the fiscal year at a minimum.”

Multiple other senators confirmed to Defense News that they would like to see a full-year Ukraine supplemental.

“A lot of my colleagues on the Republican side would like to see one package, but everything is still in the stage of how long, how much are we going to fund separately the Pentagon for replenishing equipment [for U.S. stockpiles] and separately Ukrainians for their needs,” Senate Armed Services Chairman Jack Reed, D-R.I., told Defense News.

That sticker shock could be high.

Congress passed a cumulative $113 billion in economic and security assistance for Ukraine in 2022 after Russia’s invasion and has yet to appropriate any additional money for Kyiv this year.

Bryant Harris is the Congress reporter for Defense News. He has covered U.S. foreign policy, national security, international affairs and politics in Washington since 2014. He has also written for Foreign Policy, Al-Monitor, Al Jazeera English and IPS News.

华盛顿——尽管共和党党团在被前议长凯文·麦卡锡赶下台后陷入混乱，且对亲乌克兰议员越来越不友好，但亲乌克兰议员们仍在制定策略，以期在国会通过另一项乌克兰援助方案。

许多众议院共和党人正在考虑将对乌克兰的援助与增加边境安全资金挂钩，如果他们对此持开放态度的话。与此同时，参议院倾向于通过一项为期一年的援助基辅的方案，这项策略可以使乌克兰免受明年美国大选的影响，但前期投入巨大。

目前尚不清楚众议院何时恢复运作，无论是与乌克兰相关的还是其他事项，因为接替麦卡锡担任议长的竞选已经正式开始。而且，至少有两位议长候选人曾明确反对向乌克兰提供援助。

“我们需要迅速采取行动，”参议院军事委员会首席共和党议员、来自密西西比州的罗杰·威克尔在周二麦卡锡被解职后不久告诉《防务新闻》，“但我们却把精力放在了对共和党没有好处的内讧上。”

威克尔指出，主要挑战在于能否在众议院获得对乌克兰的补充援助方案，他预计该方案将在两院获得三分之二的支持后获得通过。

威克尔说：“一直以来都存在一种孤立主义倾向。但在众议院共和党人和参议院共和党人中，仍然有大多数人支持履行我们的义务，帮助乌克兰削弱俄罗斯的军事力量。这种支持依然十分强烈。”

在麦卡锡担任众议院议长的最后几项举措中，他从参议院为避免政府停摆而制定的临时拨款法案中剔除了60亿美元的乌克兰援助资金。去年9月，泽连斯基总统最后一次访问国会山时，曾向麦卡锡请求追加援助，并警告议员们，如果没有援助，乌克兰将会输掉这场战争。

麦卡锡此前曾投票支持对乌克兰的援助，并在周二被解职后的新闻发布会上重申了他对俄罗斯入侵的谴责。但现在，大约一半的众议院共和党议员反对第五轮对乌克兰援助方案。这使得任何共和党领导人将对乌克兰的援助提案提交众议院表决都面临政治风险，即便国会仍有绝对多数支持该方案。

来自阿肯色州的共和党众议员史蒂夫·沃马克（Steve Womack）是一位支持对乌克兰提供援助的国防拨款委员。在麦卡锡被罢免后不久，他告诉《防务新闻》，他预计对乌克兰的援助将成为议长竞选的一个因素。

沃马克说：“现在所有人的注意力都集中在我们身上。我们必须想办法解决这个问题。我们必须找到一位领导者。”

2023年1月6日，美国众议员凯文·麦卡锡（加州共和党籍）在华盛顿特区美国国会大厦众议院议事厅与美国众议员马特·盖茨（佛罗里达州共和党籍）交谈。盖茨推动了本周早些时候的投票，导致麦卡锡被罢免。（图片来源：OLIVIER DOULIERY / AFP）（图片来源：OLIVIER DOULIERY/AFP via Getty Images）

已有三位保守派人士表达了对议长之位的意愿：分别是路易斯安那州共和党籍众议员、多数党领袖史蒂夫·斯卡利斯，俄亥俄州共和党籍众议员、司法委员会主席吉姆·乔丹，以及共和党研究委员会主席、俄克拉荷马州共和党籍众议员凯文·赫恩。未来几天，其他候选人也可能加入角逐，使众议院陷入旷日持久的议长之争。

上周，众议院以311票赞成、117票反对通过了向乌克兰提供3亿美元安全援助的法案。此前，麦卡锡为了赢得右翼自由党团的支持，将这笔资金从国防开支法案中剔除。斯卡利斯投了赞成票。自由党团的创始成员之一乔丹和赫恩都投了反对票。

一些众议院共和党人提出，如果通过第五项乌克兰援助方案，就向美国南部边境安全提供额外资金，但这一想法遭到了民主党人的怀疑。

“25年来，我们一直在尝试进行某种移民改革，但一直没有成功，”众议院军事委员会首席民主党议员、来自华盛顿州的亚当·史密斯告诉《防务新闻》。“如果你支持乌克兰，那就让我们就支持他们的方案进行直接的投票表决，这就是我们正在推动的。”

史密斯表示，他正在与众议院情报委员会主席、俄亥俄州共和党众议员迈克·特纳合作，特纳正试图动员共和党人在众议院就乌克兰问题进行投票表决。

“如果我们做不到这一点，我认为我们必须考虑提出解除职务申请，”史密斯说。

麦卡锡为了保住他短暂的议长职位，在1月份同意的众议院规则方案中包含一项条款，允许218名议员强制要求对法案进行全体投票，这可能使民主党人只需少数共和党人的支持，就能就乌克兰援助法案强制进行表决。但目前尚不清楚共和党人在选出新议长后会寻求进行哪些规则修改。

目前还无法确定众议院需要多久才能理顺其事务，而五角大楼援助乌克兰所需的资金和授权也将很快耗尽。

为期一年的乌克兰援助计划？

五角大楼表示，仍可使用往年剩余的55亿美元继续从美国库存向乌克兰转移武器，另有16亿美元用于补充华盛顿已向基辅提供的武器。拜登政府周三宣布，将向乌克兰提供从伊朗缴获的100多万发子弹。

“我听到的消息是，他们基本上有足够的资金继续提供武器等物资大约 45 天，但之后资金就会枯竭，”德克萨斯州共和党参议员约翰·科宁告诉《防务新闻》。

参议员们正在考虑一项为期一年的援助方案，旨在帮助乌克兰度过明年的美国大选，并让众议院在2024年不再为此操心。包括领跑者、前总统唐纳德·特朗普在内的几位共和党总统候选人也反对向乌克兰提供援助。

参议院国防拨款委员会主席、蒙大拿州民主党参议员乔恩·泰斯特告诉《防务新闻》，参议院打算通过的乌克兰补充拨款可能足以维持长达 15 个月的行动。

“我认为还没有最终决定，”泰斯特说。“但如果要做出决定，最好是至少要持续到本财年结束。”

其他多位参议员向《防务新闻》证实，他们希望看到一份为期一年的乌克兰补充拨款法案。

“我的许多共和党同事都希望看到一揽子计划，但目前一切都还处于阶段，即我们要分别拨款多少资金，以及五角大楼要拨款多少资金来补充（美国库存的）装备，还要分别拨款多少资金来满足乌克兰的需求，”参议院军事委员会主席杰克·里德博士告诉《防务新闻》。

价格可能会让你大吃一惊。

在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后，国会于 2022 年通过了累计 1130 亿美元的对乌克兰经济和安全援助，但今年尚未向基辅拨款任何额外资金。

布莱恩特·哈里斯是《防务新闻》的国会记者。自2014年以来，他一直在华盛顿报道美国外交政策、国家安全、国际事务和政治。他还曾为《外交政策》、《Al-Monitor》、《半岛电视台英语频道》和IPS新闻撰稿。