Push for self-reliance drives defense revenue surge among Top 100

A twin-engine fighter jet bearing Turkey’s red and white flag on its tail coasted down a runway at an air base near the capital Ankara in February. The aircraft — somewhat similar in style to an American F-22 or F-35 — picked up speed and lifted off.

When the fighter, dubbed Kaan , landed 13 minutes later, a mob of revelers flooded the flight line to celebrate with hugs, applause and cheers — not only for the jet but what it represented.

Turkey had flown its first homemade prototype fighter jet, which manufacturer Turkish Aerospace Industries says will have fifth-generation stealth capabilities and the weapons capacity to rival or surpass the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.

Kaan’s debut came almost 13 years after Turkey began developing its own combat aircraft, and four years after the U.S. kicked Turkey out of the F-35 program over the country’s plan to buy S-400 air defense systems from Russia. That punishment failed to deter Turkey from pursuing the S-400, and instead of the F-35, the country focused on its own indigenous fighter jet.

Turkey’s efforts to go it alone have proved fortuitous for TAI. In Defense News’ latest Top 100 list , which ranks companies around the world by defense revenue, TAI jumped from 58th place to 50th as its defense revenue ballooned nearly 50% to $2.2 billion in fiscal 2023.

TAI isn’t the only firm seeing rising revenues. As Russia presses its invasion of Ukraine, Israel attacks Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the U.S. and several allies fight Yemen-based Houthi rebels , and tension over Taiwan’s independence and disputed territory in the South China Sea proliferates, nations are increasing their defense spending — and businesses are seeing their revenues climb.

“There’s definitely a trend there,” said Stuart Dee, a European defense research leader at the think tank Rand. “This rapid and marked re-securitization with three fronts of potential geopolitical instability — Ukraine; Israel, Gaza and the Red Sea; and then Taiwan — what we’re seeing all at once is a whole lot of capability backfilling going on, right across the board.”

Defense News each year ranks the top defense contractors for its Top 100 list, by collecting and tallying information on firms’ revenues from the companies, earnings reports, analysts and other research.

Mega-firms based in the U.S., such as Lockheed Martin, RTX , Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics and Boeing , remain some of the largest defense companies worldwide, as reflected in this year’s list. But there are signs that non-U.S. businesses are playing greater roles across the sector.

For example, Aviation Industry Corp. of China is now ranked as the second-largest defense firm in the world, behind only Lockheed Martin. The Asian business saw its defense revenue jump by 45% from FY22 to FY23.

Over the last five years, the worldwide defense revenue share of Asia-based companies (including those in Russia) that have made the Top 100 rankings has fluctuated, but did increase from 16% to 21% from last year’s list to this latest version.

The share for U.S.-based firms also fluctuated over the last five years, but declined from 59% to 54% from last year’s list to this year’s iteration.

For Europe-based businesses, including Turkey and Ukraine, the defense revenue share didn’t change much over the last five years. In FY23, they took up 21% of the worldwide pie.

Notably, the Ukrainian Defense Industry’s defense revenue, which amounted to about $651 million in FY20, has skyrocketed to $2.2 billion. The company formerly known as Ukroboronprom jumped 16 spots on the most recent Top 100 list to 49th place.

The rising defense revenues among Asian and European firms likely reflect “an enhanced understanding of security challenges in the global environment,” according to Cynthia Cook, who leads a defense industry research team at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed NATO members to spend more on military efforts, she told Defense News.

In 2014, the year Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine, just three NATO allies met guidelines to spend at least 2% of their respective gross domestic products on defense; that number is expected to reach 23 this year, according to the alliance, which based its findings on 2015 rates.

And NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in February that European members will spend a cumulative $380 billion on defense this year, reaching a new record. In comparison, using the same rates, European allies spent $250 billion in 2014.

From left, then-Polish Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak looks at tanks with a South Korean official and Polish President Andrzej Duda on Dec. 6, 2022. (Mateusz Slodkowski/AFP via Getty)

“The increase in spending and the growth of European defense contractors is an important start for the rebuilding of their industrial base, which will be necessary in any future conflict,” Cook said. “European nations, especially places like Poland, are looking to the right — to the Russian threat on their immediate border. And [Russian President Vladimir] Putin has not ever said anything like: ‘Well, we’re just going to take over Ukraine and then sit tight.’ He’s pretty bold in his territorial ambitions. He’d like to do a Soviet reunion.”

And in Asia, Cook noted, Japan and South Korea are increasing their defense spending in light of potential threats from China and North Korea.

“China’s industrial base is on a wartime footing if you look at things like how many ships they’re producing and so forth,” she said.

But it’s not just American allies investing in defense, she added. After initial setbacks in Ukraine, Russia has poured money into reconstituting its military — with success that surprised some Western observers .

“Russia has ramped up its production,” U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in April. “All of their defense industry really answers directly to the state, so it’s easier for them to do that a bit quicker.”

Global military spending has skyrocketed in recent years, reaching a record $2.4 trillion in 2023, according to an April report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. That was the ninth straight year in which defense spending increased.

“Defense spending is up,” Rand’s Dee said. “But at the same time, what that is being spent on is increasingly national supply chains [and] local champions” so nations can be more self-reliant.

Take Turkey, for example. In the past, he said, the country would have bought more off-the-shelf military equipment from foreign providers, primarily from the U.S. But as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s administration pivots away from dependence on the U.S. as a supplier, the nation has invested more into its domestic industrial base, Dee added.

This is resulting in Turkey taking a “quite interesting hedged relationship” with the U.S. when it comes to military imports, he said. Turkey still relies on foreign military sales for much of its “bread and butter” military capabilities, he added, while also investing in next-generation capabilities with an eye on exports .

“If you went back 10 years ago, Turkey was an outright defense capability importer,” Dee said. “You’re starting to actually see Turkey transition to being a defense exporter for the first time.”

Five Turkish firms made the 2024 list, with Dee specifically pointing to TAI and the missile manufacturer Roketsan as notable examples of local growth. The latter jumped from 80th place on the list to 71st.

And while drone maker Baykar did not respond to Defense News’ requests for data, nor did it publicly share revenue figures by press time, the company touts its abilities as an exporter to 34 nations — including Ukraine, whose use of the Bayraktar TB2 drone was an early success story in its war against Russia.

A similar pattern is playing out in the United Kingdom, Dee noted. While the U.K. military flies Boeing and Lockheed Martin aircraft, such as Chinook helicopters and F-35s, its sixth-generation fighter program , dubbed Tempest, is largely a British effort.

The envisioned Global Combat Air Program fighter, dubbed Tempest, will boast next-gen sensing and data-processing features. (Leonardo)

U.K.-based BAE Systems is taking the lead among industry participants, which also include MBDA, Rolls-Royce and Leonardo. BAE Systems landed at the 7th spot on the Top 100 list; Rolls-Royce the 23rd; and Leonardo the 14th.

“A lot of the [British] next-generation capability investment across the board is going to … developing indigenous capability, which is directly benefiting BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce, as examples,” Dee said.

For its part, South Korea’s industrial base has always been robust, Cook said, and is also a notable exporter of military equipment.

In 2022, Poland struck a $5.8 billion deal to buy Korea Aerospace Industries-made fighter jets, tanks from Hyundai Rotem Co., and howitzers and vehicles from Hanwha Defense. Also in that year, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol pledged to make his nation one of the top weapons suppliers in the world.

Three South Korean firms made the list, with Hanwha ranked in 19th place; LIG Nex1 in 58th; and Hyundai Motor Co., of which Hyundai Rotem is an affiliate, in 73rd.

And it’s not only local economic and military issues that are driving further globalization of the defense market. Political turmoil in Washington , which for months stalled U.S. rearming of Ukraine, jolted some European allies into investing more in their own defense industries, according to Saab CEO Micael Johansson.

Johansson in February described America’s wavering on Ukrainian support as “quite scary to see,” adding that Europe must fill any gaps. He called for European governments to make long-term financial commitments with local defense firms to build new production sites and capacity — and not let indigenous capabilities wither, as occurred after the Cold War.

“I am prepared to take risk, but it has to be in some sort of handshake with governments if I’m going to do more in terms of new sites, high capacity,” Johansson said. “We can’t afford to dismantle things once more.”

Saab’s defense revenue grew 18% in FY23 to nearly $4.4 billion, bolstered by a $102 million deal with Boeing to build fuselages for the T-7 trainer aircraft and a $1.2 billion contract to an undisclosed customer to provide Carl-Gustaf recoilless rifles. The Swedish firm made the Top 100 list at 29th place.

In nearby Norway, Kongsberg’s defense revenue jumped 23% to $1.7 billion in FY23. The company, which ranked 59th, builds National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems, which have been sold or donated to Ukraine to bolster its defense against Russia.

The Norwegian Army fires a National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System against a simulated threat during a 2023 exercise. (Royal Norwegian Navy)

A worldwide defense industry that relies less on U.S. firms could be an overall positive development — even for American companies, Dee said.

The defense-industrial base, while vast, only has so much capacity. For instance, the sector has struggled to produce munitions, such as 155mm shells, at the rate of demand. And so, more companies serving as major players can lead to more capacity, he explained, and more competition.

“The relative lack of competition in the defense market is one of the primary causes that is often pointed out for consistent cost overruns,” Dee said. “More competition, within the confines of export control capacity, is a good thing.”

But a more globalized defense-industrial base could create problems if systems and ammunition created in different countries can’t function well together, Cook noted.

“We want systems to interoperate, and we want ammunition made in one country to fit into the systems of others,” she said. “That is just hard. You have to set joint requirements, you have to set standards. What do you do with the older systems that may require specific ammo? Do you retrofit them? There’s a lot of questions to think about.”

Stephen Losey is the air warfare reporter for Defense News. He previously covered leadership and personnel issues at Air Force Times, and the Pentagon, special operations and air warfare at Military.com. He has traveled to the Middle East to cover U.S. Air Force operations.

今年二月，一架尾翼涂有土耳其红白国旗的双引擎战斗机在首都安卡拉附近的一个空军基地滑行通过跑道。这架飞机——外形与美国的F-22或F-35有些相似——加速后升空。

13 分钟后，这架被命名为“卡安”的战斗机降落，一大群狂欢者涌上跑道，拥抱、鼓掌、欢呼庆祝——不仅是为了这架喷气式飞机，更是为了它所代表的意义。

土耳其首架国产原型战斗机成功试飞，制造商土耳其航空航天工业公司表示，该机将具备第五代隐形能力，其武器能力足以与F-35联合攻击战斗机匹敌甚至超越后者。

卡安战斗机的首秀距离土耳其开始研发自主战斗机已近13年，距离美国因土耳其计划从俄罗斯购买S-400防空系统而将其踢出F-35项目也已过去了4年。然而，这一惩罚并未阻止土耳其继续推进S-400项目，土耳其最终放弃了F-35，转而专注于自主研发战斗机。

土耳其的独立自主战略对土耳其航空航天工业公司（TAI）来说可谓是幸运之举。在《防务新闻》最新发布的全球百强国防企业排行榜中，TAI凭借其2023财年国防收入增长近50%至22亿美元，排名从第58位跃升至第50位。

TAI并非唯一一家营收增长的公司。随着俄罗斯加紧入侵乌克兰，以色列打击加沙地带的哈马斯，美国及其盟友与也门胡塞武装交战，以及围绕台湾独立和南海争议领土的紧张局势不断升级，各国都在增加国防开支——企业营收也随之攀升。

“这绝对是一种趋势，”兰德智库的欧洲防务研究负责人斯图尔特·迪说。“在三个潜在的地缘政治不稳定前线——乌克兰；以色列、加沙和红海；以及台湾——迅速而显著地重新加强安全，我们看到的是各方面都在进行大量的能力补充。”

《防务新闻》每年都会收集和统计来自各公司的收入信息、盈利报告、分析师和其他研究，从而评选出百强国防承包商。

总部位于美国的巨型企业，例如洛克希德·马丁公司、RTX公司、诺斯罗普·格鲁曼公司、通用动力公司和波音公司，仍然是全球最大的国防公司之一，今年的榜单也印证了这一点。但种种迹象表明，非美国企业正在该领域发挥越来越重要的作用。

例如，中国航空工业集团公司目前是全球第二大国防企业，仅次于洛克希德·马丁公司。该公司在亚洲的国防业务收入在2022财年至2023财年间增长了45%。

过去五年，进入全球前 100 强的亚洲公司（包括俄罗斯公司）在全球国防收入中所占的份额有所波动，但从去年的 16% 增加到今年的 21%。

过去五年中，美国公司的份额也有所波动，但从去年的 59% 下降到今年的 54%。

对于包括土耳其和乌克兰在内的欧洲企业而言，过去五年国防收入份额变化不大。在2023财年，它们占据了全球国防收入的21%。

值得注意的是，乌克兰国防工业的国防收入从2020财年的约6.51亿美元飙升至22亿美元。这家前身为乌克兰国防工业公司（Ukroboronprom）的企业在最新的百强榜单中跃升16位，位列第49名。

据战略与国际研究中心智库国防工业研究团队负责人辛西娅·库克 (Cynthia Cook) 称，亚洲和欧洲公司国防收入的增长可能反映出“对全球环境中的安全挑战有了更深入的了解”。

她告诉《防务新闻》，俄罗斯入侵乌克兰促使北约成员国增加军事开支。

2014 年，俄罗斯从乌克兰吞并克里米亚的那一年，只有三个北约盟国达到了将各自国内生产总值至少 2% 用于国防开支的指导方针；据该联盟称，预计今年这一数字将达到 23 个，该联盟的调查结果是基于 2015 年的水平。

北约秘书长延斯·斯托尔滕贝格在2月份表示，欧洲成员国今年的国防开支累计将达到3800亿美元，创历史新高。相比之下，按同样的增长速度计算，欧洲盟国2014年的国防开支为2500亿美元。

2022年12月6日，时任波兰国防部长马里乌什·布瓦什恰克（左）与一名韩国官员和波兰总统安杰伊·杜达一同查看坦克。（Mateusz Slodkowski/AFP via Getty）

库克表示：“增加国防开支和欧洲国防承包商的增长，是重建其工业基础的重要开端，而这对于应对未来的任何冲突都至关重要。欧洲各国，尤其是像波兰这样的国家，正将目光转向右翼——关注俄罗斯在其近邻构成的威胁。普京总统从未说过类似这样的话：‘我们只要占领乌克兰，然后就坐等其成。’他在领土野心方面相当大胆。他想实现苏联的重组。”

库克指出，在亚洲，鉴于来自中国和朝鲜的潜在威胁，日本和韩国正在增加国防开支。

“如果你看看中国的造船数量等等，就会发现中国的工业基础已经处于战时状态了，”她说。

但她补充说，投资国防的并非只有美国的盟友。在乌克兰遭遇初期挫折后，俄罗斯也投入巨资重建军队，其成效令一些西方观察家感到惊讶。

美国国防部长劳埃德·奥斯汀在四月份表示：“俄罗斯已经提高了产量。他们的所有国防工业实际上都直接对国家负责，所以他们更容易更快地做到这一点。”

根据斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所4月份发布的一份报告，近年来全球军费开支飙升，2023年达到创纪录的2.4万亿美元。这是国防开支连续第九年增长。

兰德公司的迪伊表示：“国防开支增加了。但与此同时，这些资金越来越多地用于建设国家供应链和扶持本土企业”，以便各国能够更加自力更生。

以土耳其为例。迪伊说，过去土耳其会从外国供应商，主要是美国，购买更多现成的军事装备。但随着土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的政府逐渐减少对美国作为供应商的依赖，土耳其加大了对国内工业基础的投资。

他表示，这导致土耳其在军事进口方面与美国采取了一种“相当有趣的对冲关系”。他还补充说，土耳其仍然依赖对外军售来满足其大部分“核心”军事能力需求，同时也在投资下一代军事能力，着眼于出口。

迪伊说：“如果你回顾十年前，土耳其还是一个彻头彻尾的国防能力进口国。现在，你开始看到土耳其首次转型成为国防出口国。”

2024年共有五家土耳其公司入选榜单，迪伊特别指出土耳其航空航天工业公司（TAI）和导弹制造商罗克特桑公司是本土企业增长的显著例证。后者排名从榜单第80位跃升至第71位。

尽管无人机制造商 Baykar 没有回应《防务新闻》的数据请求，也没有在截稿前公开分享收入数据，但该公司吹嘘其有能力向 34 个国家出口无人机，其中包括乌克兰。乌克兰使用 Bayraktar TB2 无人机是其对抗俄罗斯战争早期取得的成功案例。

迪伊指出，类似的模式也在英国上演。虽然英国军方使用波音和洛克希德·马丁公司的飞机，例如奇努克直升机和F-35战斗机，但其第六代战斗机项目“暴风雨”（Tempest）主要由英国自主研发。

这款被设想为全球空中作战计划（Global Combat Air Program）的战斗机，代号“暴风雨”（Tempest），将配备新一代传感和数据处理功能。（莱昂纳多）

总部位于英国的BAE系统公司在业内领先，其他上榜公司还包括MBDA、劳斯莱斯和莱昂纳多。BAE系统公司位列百强榜单第七名；劳斯莱斯位列第二十三名；莱昂纳多位列第十四名。

迪伊表示：“英国在各个领域对下一代能力的大量投资都将用于……发展本土能力，这直接惠及了 BAE 系统公司和劳斯莱斯公司等企业。”

库克表示，韩国的工业基础一直很强大，而且也是重要的军用装备出口国。

2022年，波兰达成一项价值58亿美元的协议，购买韩国航空航天工业公司（KAII）生产的战斗机、现代Rotem公司生产的坦克以及韩华防务公司生产的榴弹炮和车辆。同年，韩国总统尹锡悦承诺将韩国打造成为世界顶级武器供应国之一。

榜单上有三家韩国公司，其中韩华排名第 19 位；LIG Nex1 排名第 58 位；现代汽车公司（现代 Rotem 是其附属公司）排名第 73 位。

推动国防市场进一步全球化的，不仅是地方经济和军事问题。萨博公司首席执行官迈克尔·约翰逊表示，华盛顿的政治动荡导致美国在乌克兰的重新武装进程停滞数月，也促使一些欧洲盟友加大对本国国防工业的投资。

约翰逊在二月份形容美国在支持乌克兰问题上的摇摆不定“令人担忧”，并补充说欧洲必须填补任何空白。他呼吁欧洲各国政府与当地国防企业达成长期财政承诺，以建设新的生产基地和产能，避免像冷战后那样让本土能力萎缩。

约翰逊说：“我愿意承担风险，但如果我要在新建厂址和提高产能方面投入更多，就必须与政府达成某种协议。我们不能再承受一次拆迁的后果了。”

萨博公司2023财年国防业务收入增长18%，达到近44亿美元，这主要得益于与波音公司签订的价值1.02亿美元的T-7教练机机身制造合同，以及与一家未公开客户签订的价值12亿美元的卡尔·古斯塔夫无后坐力炮合同。这家瑞典公司跻身全球百强企业榜单，位列第29位。

在邻近的挪威，康斯伯格公司2023财年的国防收入增长了23%，达到17亿美元。这家排名第59位的公司生产国家先进地对空导弹系统，这些导弹系统已出售或捐赠给乌克兰，以加强其对抗俄罗斯的防御能力。

2023年，挪威陆军在一次演习中发射国家先进地对空导弹系统攻击模拟目标。（挪威皇家海军）

迪伊表示，全球国防工业对美国公司的依赖程度降低，总体而言可能是一个积极的发展趋势——即使对美国公司来说也是如此。

国防工业基础虽然庞大，但产能终究有限。例如，该行业一直难以满足155毫米炮弹等弹药的需求。因此，他解释说，更多公司成为主要参与者可以提高产能，并加剧竞争。

迪伊表示：“国防市场竞争相对不足是导致成本持续超支的主要原因之一。在出口管制能力范围内，增加竞争是一件好事。”

库克指出，更加全球化的国防工业基础可能会造成问题，因为不同国家制造的系统和弹药不能很好地协同工作。

“我们希望各个系统能够互操作，也希望一个国家生产的弹药能够适配其他国家的系统，”她说道。“但这很难。你必须制定联合需求，必须制定标准。对于那些可能需要特定弹药的老旧系统该怎么办？需要进行改造吗？有很多问题需要考虑。”

斯蒂芬·洛西是《防务新闻》的空战记者。他此前曾在《空军时报》报道领导层和人事问题，并在Military.com网站报道五角大楼、特种作战和空战。他曾前往中东报道美国空军的行动。